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STUPID IS AS STUPID DOES RIDES AGAIN!

July 13, 2006

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It has been reported in several Israeli news releases that the Hizbollah are trying to get the two captured Israeli soldiers into Iran. If, and I say “if,” this report is correct, things could get very interesting in the land to the east of the Tigris River. The reports may not be true. I s usp

ect it was discussed within Hizbollah, but

I doubt if they came to a decision to do it. It may have just been an idea. These captured soldiers are two hot potatoes, and I suspect none of the Arab nations want to have them inside their borders. But, if any nation was goofy enough to take them, it would be Iran, whose leader’s statement that chaos was needed before the Islamic Messiah would appear, and two kidnapped Israeli soldiers in Iran would certainly create chaos.

If this report should happen to be true, it would certainly validate the old claim that “Stupid is as Stupid Does.” If the abducted soldiers do end up in Iran, the international community will not have to worry about uranium enrichment much longer. The IAF will take care of the problem for them. IAF High Tech fighter-bombers will sweep down on the scattered Iranian nuclear facilities like ducks on June bugs. Israel will use the captive soldiers as justification for their act, and there are a lot of nations who publicly would scream their disapproval, but secretly would rejoice to see the Iranian nuclear threat removed, and many Arab nations, as well as Russia and China, would be among them.

I have indicated in previous updates, and given specific reasons, as to why I believe it doesn’t matter whether or not Iran develops a nuclear warhead for their ballistic missile series. The next Middle East war will be conventional, not nuclear. The only thing that wiping out Iranian facilities would accomplish is a further inflaming of the Jihad spirit now sweeping across the world’s Islamic population. If the Iranians should allow the two soldiers to be smuggled into their country, it would be a classic example of “Stupid is as Stupid Does!”

Begin Haaretz Article

Israel: Hezbollah Plans to Move Abducted IDF Soldiers to Iran

By Amos Harel and Jack Khoury, Haaretz Correspondents

July 13, 2006

Israel has concrete evidence that Hezbollah plans to transfer the two Israel Defense Forces soldiers abducted Wednesday to Iran, Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev said Thursday.

“We have concrete evidence that Hezbollah plans to transfer the kidnapped soldiers to Iran. As a result, Israel views Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran as the main players in the axis of terror and hate that endangers not only Israel, but the entire world,” AFP quoted Deputy Director General of the Foreign Ministry Gideon Meir as saying.

An Al-Jazeera correspondent said Thursday that he had evidence that the two soldiers – identified Thursday as Ehud Goldwasser, 31, of Nahariya, and Eldad Regev, 26,

of Kiryat Motzkin – were alive during the abduction. He said they were transferred to a Shi’ ite mosque in a nearby town, where the abductors changed clothes.

According to the report, one of the soldiers was transferred in a cab, to make it difficult for Israeli intelligence to locate him. The Al-Jazeera correspondent stressed that he had received the information from a source close to Hezbollah, and that members of the organization refuse to disclose more information with nothing in return.

End Haaretz Article

Special Prophecy Update Number 187A

August 29, 2004

Atomic War in Israel – Yes or No? – Number 2

We are a month away from the Intifada being four years in duration, and a lot has happened. Its results have included the smashing of the power of the Palestinian Authority and its many associated terrorist groups, the building of a security wall and fence to separate them from Israel proper by 2006, and a final separation when the forced unilateral withdrawal plan of Ariel Sharon is completed, which will bring in the false peace that must prophetically occur before a surprise Jihad attack by 10 Arab nations from the north.

More than a year ago I issued Special Prophecy Update Number 129C, titled “Atomic War in Israel, Yes or No?” I would like to reaffirm my belief in its validity in Number 2. The original Update 129C, issued July 23, 2003, was as follows: (BEGIN QUOTE OF 129C)

“One of the main reasons I wrote three books on prophecy in the late seventies and early eighties was to establish a case advocated by teachers

of the pre-World War II era. It was, simply stated, that man would not destroy the earth with his weaponry, but rather that God would destroy the earth by the use of this

own power. I am certain that the horrifying changes in the topography of Israel, as well as the terrifying destruction of the antichrist’s forces at Armageddon, are by the awesome power of God, not atomic, chemical, or biological weapons of man. The lifting of the land from Geba to Rimmon south of Jerusalem, the breaking up of Jerusalem into three sections, the splitting of the Mount of Olives, and the consuming of the flesh, tongues, and eyes of the antichrist’s men are natural phenomena unleashed by God, not by man. All the Scriptures dealing with these phenomena unleashed by God are covered in Birth Pang and Prophecy Archives.

There are many advocates of a great atomic, chemical, and biological war in Israel when the antichrist attacks 1260 days before Armageddon. It might happen at the time of Armageddon, but the initial attack will start what amounts to a non-nuclear, non-chemical, and non-biological war. So why am I so confident and outspoken about this being the case?
Israel has more than 200 extremely well concealed missile silos in the Negev between Beersheba and the Gulf of Aqabah.

(1) It has more than 300 nuclear, chemical, and biological warheads to mount on Jericho missiles.

(2) The Jericho is a very accurate missile, and can hit a target in any Islamic country from Morocco to Pakistan and from Turkey to Yemen.

(3) Israel has an excellent anti-missile defense to protect its array of silos, warheads, and missiles.

It is able to pick up an incoming enemy missile launched from Syria before it reaches its maximum altitude.

(4) So why do I believe this array of WMD will not be unleashed by Israel when it is attacked? Because the Israeli War Contingency Plan of Israel directs that WMD will never be launched against a foreign nation unless they are first launched against Israel.

(5) So how do I know the Islamic countries will not launch WMD in their initial attack? All of them are well aware of what is listed in (1) through (5)! The former Soviet Union, which it existed, shared Israeli intelligence information with Syria, which it collected over a long period of time from its hundreds of spy satellites it launched from pads between Moscow and the White Sea, and on the eastern side of the Aral Sea. Syria, in turn, has shared it with some of the other Islamic countries around Israel. Only a leader possessed of rank insanity would ever launch WMD first against Israel, which is why I was so relieved when Saddam Hussein was taken out of the way.

Many believe the United States will quickly rush to the aid of Israel, and, as the world’s greatest power, will immediately deliver her from any kind of attack she can’t handle. There are two problems with this idea: (1) The United States believes Israel can defeat any Islamic attack on its own without any help from us. After all, Israel has easily done so in three previous wars and, (2) This will be a lightning Jihad, and better coordinated than any of the previous wars, and this time Israel

will have a Palestinian state attacking it from within, while the other Islamic nations come in from outside its borders. It will probably last less than a month, and Jerusalem is likely to fall within a week. By the time we decide they must have our help it will be too late, because they will have occupied most of the land from Dan to Beersheba. It would take months, as it did in Operation Desert Storm and Operation Freedom Iraq, to get enough American troops on the ground to do any good.

What was the character of Israel’ s pa

st three wars? They were all very short in duration, and they all ended abruptly in a truce. That will be the case in this war. The United States knows that the Negev is the place where Israel will flee. When we believe they are safely in the Negev, we will be more than willing to accept a truce to give us time to think about what to do, and Israel will remain trapped in the Negev for some three and one-half years.

The part played by the United States during this period of three and one-half years is interspersed throughout our Prophecy Archives, with some of it in Prophecy Updates 5 through 11, 32 & 33, and 74 & 75.”

(END QUOTE OF UPDATE 129C).

Since Update 129C was issued, several noteworthy things have come to pass that reduce the likelihood of a nuclear war in the Middle East. The area is headed toward a situation where both sides will realize a nuclear war would leave the victor, or victors, in such a powerless state, that any future they might have would be desolate, and

leave them in a position of great vulnerability to the rest of the oil consuming nations. Some of these noteworthy recent events, which would tend to create a standoff, such as the one that developed between the United States and the once mighty Soviet Union, are as follows:

(1) Syria now has a better Scud than the Scud B. The Scud D missile, considered to be the most sophisticated weapon of its kind, is now in the hands of the Syrian military. It is able to deliver nuclear, chemical, or biological multiple warheads to their targets in Israel from Syria.

(2) The jointly developed American-Israeli Arrow 2 missile successfully launched an Arrow 2 missile that destroyed a Scud B over the Pacific Ocean earlier this year. The Arrow 2 is designed to intercept an enemy missile before it reaches its peak altitude, far from Israeli territory.

However, in a recent test against the Scud D, it failed to intercept the detached warhead. It was not a complete failure, and the results are in the process of being analyzed. Israel says it can still effectively destroy the Scud D.

(3) Syria also maintains a sizeable ballistic missile arsenal and, like Iran, is active in upgrading and expanding its capabilities.

(4) In June Iran announced it is building its first stealth missile, a rocket that can evade electronic detection. The missile was named Kowsar, in honor of the Kowsar river in paradise, which is found in the Koran, the Holy Book of Islam. Iran announced it would be capable of hitting ships and aircraft.

(5) Iran is continuing to steam toward development of its own nuclear bomb, which many believe it could develop as early as next year. It is now going underground, and spreading out its nuclear development sites in order to limit the damage that could be incurred by an Israeli air strike, like the one carried out on Iraq’s nuclear facility in 1981.

(6) Iran is manufacturing various missiles, chief among them being the Shahab-3, whose range of 1300 km (793 mi) allows it to reach Israel. It is designed to carry up to a 700-kilogram conventional warhead. But the Iranians are currently developing the Shihab 4 and 5, with ranges of 3000 km (1830 mi) and 6000 km (3660 mi), which puts all of Europe in its sights, and these both missiles will be able to carry chemical, nuclear, and biological weapons.

(7) At the same time that Iran and Syria are attempting to manufacture weapons of mass destructions, and the missiles to deliver them, they are also building up their conventional arsenal of weapons. Iran has been making its own tanks, armored personnel carriers, and fighter planes, inside its own borders for some time. They have been guided by the designs of weaponry supplied to them by North Korea, Russia, and even China in both their conventional and non-conventional programs of weaponry development. The huge payments from the Iranian oil money have, for some time, helped to keep the Russian Economy afloat, and the North Korean economy from completely collapsing.

I do not believe there will be a nuclear, biological or chemical war in the Middle East. I have long been convinced of this. It will be a great war, but only conventional weapons will be used. I will not rule out the possibility of some being used at Armageddon, but I really don’t believe they will be launched even then.

Another Reason I Believe Iran would not launch the First WMD Missile

March 3, 2006 Blog

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

In several previous Blogs I have made the case that Iran would never launch

the first atomic missile against Israel. We ran this December 5, 2005 article from Jane’s Weekly previously, but I am running it again to add to the reasons I have given in many updates and Blogs as to why I do not fear a nuclear war in the Middle East. Sure, I would much prefer that Iran not possess a nuclear warhead, but I am not nearly as concerned about it as the majority of prophecy teachers. I am confident the next Middle East war will be fought by conventional weapons.

The nation of Israel has a superb anti-missile defense and the capability to launch hundreds of Jericho Missiles, carrying a wide variety of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), from the Negev. Iran, along with the rest of the Islamic nations, knows that Israel has the capacity to void their very existence as a people and as nations across the Middle East. And they also know that Israel will not launch WMD’s against them, unless they first launch against Israel.

I believe that Israel is perfectly satisfied it can knock down any Shihab-3 Missile before it reaches the eastern border of Israel.

It is far more advantageous for the nations of Islam to fight a war using only conventional weapons. They outnumber the Israelis and it will be to their advantage to fight a conventional war. To attempt to fight a nuclear war, in which the United States would be free morally to launch against the Arab nations in the eyes of the international community, if they launched first against Israel, would be the height of stupidity. Iran may be a fanatical nation of Islamic extremism, but in their cold hatred of Israel, they are coolly cunning, and realize a first strike against Israel would bring about their end as a people and as a nation.

Begin Jane’s Defense Weekly Article

Jane’s Defense Weekly

5 December 2005

Israel’s Anti-ballistic Missile Test Pushes Altitude Boundaries

By Alon Ben-David JDW Correspondent

Tel Aviv

Israel’s anti-ballistic missile Arrow Weapon System (AWS) successfully intercepted a target simulating an Iranian Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) in a test over the Mediterranean on 2 December.

The interception was conducted at a record low altitude, considered below the AWS’s performance envelope, and determined the operability of the Arrow II Block 3 interceptor, manufactured jointly by Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) and Boeing Integrated Defense Systems.

“We have never before tried the Arrow against the Shahab characteristics, but we know now that we are capable of intercepting all existing ballistic missile threats in the region, whether conventional or non-conventional, and we are developing capabilities to deal with future threats,” Director of the Israel Missile Defence Organisation Arieh Herzog told JDW.

Following the interception, IAF’s MIM-104 Patriot low- to high-altitude air-defence batteries joined the test, simulating an additional interception at lower altitude. Israel’s ballistic missile defence concept is based on a two-tier layered defence in which the AWS constitutes the higher layer and the Patriot an additional, lower layer.

End Jane’s Weekly Report of December 5, 2005

I am sure that Israel has done a lot more testing and correcting on the Arrow Missile Systems since last December, and transformed the Arrow into a highly efficient anti-missile weapon.

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A Preview of Coming Attractions Number 2

July 13, 2006

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This is a very exciting time for me in Middle East Prophecy. If you did not read “A Preview of Coming Attractions,” which I issued yesterday, along with Archive Prophecy Update Number 74D, please take the time to go back and read it. I promise you will find it very interesting.

Israel is currently letting Lebanon know that nothing is sacred in their entire country, and is attacking some sites north of where Hizbollah is headquartered in the south. It is also letting Syria know Syrian sites are not immune to attacks by the IAF, and that the Hizbollah zone in southern Lebanon will be invaded by the IDF as well as being plastered with air strikes by the IAF.

A special observer from Iran has been rushed to Damascus since Syria and Iran recently signed a mutual defense pact. So all the time that the current Israeli military activity is being carried out in the north, the Syrian and Iran Military Intelligence is actively watching and recording everything Israel is doing.

This intelligence will be used when 10 Arab nations do eventually gain enough strength to be successful in an all out war.

They are at least two to six years away from being able to attack Israel with any hope of success. If the 10 toes of Daniel’s statue were to attack Israel now, they would be easily defeated. Islam needs two things to defeat Israel, a large well coordinated military force and the element of surprise.

What is happening now in the northern border action by Israel against Hizbollah is setting the stage for the Jihad by 10 Arab nations against Israel, which I guesstimate is likely to begin at a point in time between 2008 and 2012. The Israelis will go hot and heavy against Hizbollah for awhile until they have destroyed Hizbollah military installations and taken a toll of their population. The international community will yell their disapproval. Iran and Syria will watch the action, but will not try to start a war with Israel, because they simply are not militarily ready at this time.

However, they will gain a wealth of information for a time when they will be ready, and I guesstimate they will be ready at some point in time between 2008 and 2012.

Once Israel has seemingly decapitated Hizbollah, they will withdraw, and eventually Israel’s enemies will rebuild in southern Lebanon. All this is setting the stage for the same scenario to be played again when Iran and Syria are ready to attack Israel.

Iran and Syria will not attack Israel as long as American troops are in Iraq. The presidential election will see some of our troops out of Iraq, and all will be out at some point in time between 2008 and 2012. If you think that Iraq is going to love us for the opportunity we gave them to be free under a democracy, then I have a collector’s three dollar bill I would like to sell you for a million dollars. They will hate us even more than they did under Saddam Hussein, and will be a full fledged partner with Syria and Iran when the Jihad is launched against Israel. And, if you think we are going to rush our troops back over there again, after just having pulled them out, then I also have a collectors four dollar bill I will sell you for a second million dollars.

Time after time Israel has had to go into Lebanon to clean up terrorist infested areas, and each time they have been successful. It is a pattern that is well established. Israel has extreme confidence it will always be the same, and she has no fear of being defeated by the Arabs in a war, because she has won ever war since 1948, but the next war she

will lose. The next time that the same scenario occurs, the forces of Islam will be ready for war and, when Israel heads north into Lebanon to punish the enemy in Lebanon, they will find a huge consolidated force waiting for them in the southern half of Syria, and that force will drive them south into the Negev wilderness. The international community, by and large, will jump on the Arab bandwagon, because they will say the Arabs are justified since Israel attacked Lebanon.

Revelation 12:6 – And the woman fled into the wilderness, where she hath a place prepared of God, that they should feed her there a thousand two hundred and threescore days.

Zechariah 13:8,9 – And it shall come to pass, that in all the land, saith the Lord, two parts therein shall be cut off and die; but the third shall be left therein. [9] And I will bring the third part through the fire, and will refine them as silver is refined, and will try them as gold is tried: they shall call on my name, and I will hear them: I will say, It is my people: and they shall say, The Lord is my God.

Begin DEBKAfile Reports Article

Activation of the Hamas-Hizbollah-Syria-Iran Link in the South and North

DEBKAfile reports: Iran’s national security adviser Ali Larijani flies to Damascus aboad special military plane Wednesday night as war tension builds up around Hizballah kidnap of 2 Israeli soldiers

July 12, 2006, 10:14 PM (GMT+02:00)

Larijani is also Iran’s senior nuclear negotiator.

He will remain in Damascus for the duration of the crisis in line with the recently Iranian-Syrian mutual defense pact. His presence affirms that an Israeli attack on Syria will be deemed an assault on Iran. It also links the Israeli hostage crisis to Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West.

The White House released a statement holding Syria and Iran responsible for Hizballah abduction and demanding their immediate and unconditional release. The Syrian army has been put on a state of preparedness.

DEBKAfile’s military sources add that the Iranian air force, missile units and navy are also on high alert.

DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources report Hizballah acted on orders from Tehran to open a second front against Israel, partly to ease IDF military pressure on the Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This was in response to an appeal Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal made to the Iranian ambassador to Damascus Mohammad Hassan Akhtari Sunday, July 9.

DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources report Tehran’s rationale as composed of three parts: 1. Iran shows the flag as a champion and defender of its ally, Hamas. 2. Sending Hizballah to open a warfront against Israel is the logical tactical complement to its latest order to go into action against American and British forces in southern Iraq. 3. Tehran hopes to hijack the agenda before the G-8 summit opening in St. Petersberg, Russia on July 15. Instead of discussing Iran’s nuclear case and the situation in Iraq along the lines set by President George W. Bush, the leaders of the industrial nations will be forced to address the Middle East flare-up Any Israeli decision taken at prime minister Ehud Olmert’s high level consultation in Jerusalem Wednesday night must take this turn of events into account before deciding on limited air strikes against Hizballah and Lebanese civil targets without delay. Our sources also report that immediately after Nasrallah’s statement to the media, Hizballah’s leaders went into hiding, their bases were evacuated and their fighting strength transferred to pre-planned places of concealment. Ahead of the abduction, Hizballah ordnance and missile stocks were transferred to the Palestinian Ahmed Jibril’s tunnel system at Naama, 30 km south of Beirut, which was built in the 1980s by East German engineers. The Israel navy has long tried to smash this coastal underground fortress from the sea without success. Israel began calling up an armored division, air crews and technicians from the reserves Wednesday night.

DEBKAfile’s military experts: If Israel’s leaders opt for an anti-Hizballah operation on the lines of Operation Summer Rain against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the IDF can expect the same measure of success as it has had in recovering Gilead Shalit and ending the Qassam missiles barrage

Begin Jerusalem Post Article

Comment: An Opportunity to Restore Deterrence

Efraim Inbar, THE JERUSALEM POST

July 13, 2006

The artillery barrage by Hizbullah on Israeli villages along the Lebanese border, and the killings and kidnapping of IDF soldiers there, come as no surprise. Military Intelligence has warned about such a scenario time and again. Nevertheless, Wednesday saw a military fiasco, coming just two weeks after the attack at Kerem Shalom on the Gaza border and compounding the problems of grappling with the chaos there.

Israel seems to be caught in a war – albeit a limited one – on two fronts. This has already required a partial mobilization of the reserve force. The relatively new government headed by Ehud Olmert, which includes the inexperienced Defense Minister Amir Peretz, faces its first serious challenge.

The option of a prisoners’ swap has become untenable politically. This government is unlikely to give in to the demands of Hamas and Hizbullah because much more is at stake than the lives of three soldiers.

Beyond the importance Olmert and Peretz attach to their political careers, they understand that Israel must restore a modicum of deterrence and its ability to secure some tranquility for its citizens living along the borders.

ndeed, the kidnapping of the soldiers provides the trigger to deal with larger strategic issues. In Gaza, it is the Kassam rockets, and in Lebanon, it is Hizbullah’s missile arsenal that pose serious threats to a large part of the country.

For some time, the defense establishment has considered the Hizbullah armaments an important enough target to justify preemptive action. Therefore, the removal of the missile threat and the perceived strategic parity that has constrained Israel’s reaction to past Hizbullah provocations must be the primary goal of an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon.

Eliminating the Hizbullah missile threat will allow greater freedom of action against Syria and Iran. The “search and destroy” mode of operation required for capturing and/or destroying the missiles hidden in numerous locations necessitates the use of ground forces. But, of course, even their cautious employment under an aerial umbrella might be costly.

To a large extent the success of Israeli actions in Lebanon will be measured by the counting of casualties.

Israel may well capitalize on its missile hunt in Lebanon to expand the goal of the operations. Israeli threats to seriously punish Hizbullah probably mean targeting its leadership. A “gloves off” policy to decapitate Hizbullah could paralyze this terrorist organization for several years. This would clearly signal Israel’s determination to deal with terrorist threats and with Iranian proxies.

A further expansion of goals concerns Syria – the channel for Iranian support to Hizbullah. Damascus still hosts the headquarters of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, despite promising the Americans a few years ago to close their offices.

Israel may enjoy much freedom of action versus Syria because Syria frustrated the American and French attempts to limit it’s influence in Lebanon in their quest to restore Lebanon’s independence. Washington, in particular, may relish military pressure on a Bashar Assad regime that allows infiltration of insurgents into Iraq from its territory.

Syrian targets could be attacked by an Israel Air Force that could easily suppress the Syrian air defenses and acquire aerial supremacy.

Israel may also decide the time is ripe for attacking the Syrian long-range missile infrastructure, whose threat hovers over most of Israel.

Escalation has often been the Israeli response to the wars of attrition waged by its enemies. A successful Israeli military operation in Lebanon and in Syria would have many ripple effects in the region.

Radicals advocating terror against militarily superior powers could be constrained. The Palestinians might pay attention and calibrate their goals accordingly.

Perhaps most important would be the impact on a nuclear-aspirant Iran that seems to believe that it can defy a modern military force. It has been some time since Israel had a resounding military success. Hizbullah may have provided the opportunity, and hopefully the IDF can meet the challenge.

The writer is professor of political science at Bar-Ilan University and director of the Begin-Sadat (BESA) Center for Strategic Studies.

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We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law.

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more detailed information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. You may use material originated by this site. However, if you wish to use any quoted copyrighted material from this site, which did not originate at this site, for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner from which we extracted it.

Special Blog on Current Hizbollah and Israel Scenario

July 12, 2006 (U.S. Date)

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

I will simply let the excerpts extracted from the two Jerusalem Post articles, which follow, speak for themselves as representing the current status of the situation along the northern

Israeli border with Lebanon.

This is the second Special Blog we have issued in the last 18 hours.

Begin Excerpts from Article 1

Atmosphere of War in Cabinet Meeting

Herb Keinon, THE JERUSALEM POST

July 13, 2006 (Israel Date)

The cabinet met in emergency session Wednesday night to approve military actions in the North, amid growing sentiment that the region was sliding toward war and that Hizbullah’s morning attack necessitated a dramatic, widespread and painful response.

The ministers approved plans to push Hizbullah back from the northern border and place pressure on the Lebanese government to dismantle the Islamist organization, as called for under UN Security Council Resolution 1559.

Following the meeting, the cabinet issued a statement saying, “A new, complicated situation has been created that Israel is obliged to deal with.” The statement said this new situation would include special preparations to deal with the possibility that “the enemy will try to cause damage to the home front.”

Head of the Home Front Command, Maj.-Gen. Yitzhak Gershon, was instructed to prepare for a possibility of a major bombardment of Israeli communities.

According to estimates, Hizbullah has thousands of rockets aimed at Israel, including ‘hundreds’ of Fajar 5 rockets that can reach Haifa and Hadera.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said at a press conference with visiting Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi a few hours after learning of the attack that it was clear that as a result of this “act of war,” Israel would respond in “an unequivocal fashion that will cause those who started this act of war to bear a very painful and far-reaching responsibility for their actions.”

“I want to make it clear, this morning’s events were not a terrorist attack but the action of a sovereign state that attacked Israel for no reason and without provocation,” he said.

“The Lebanese government, of which Hizbullah is a member, is trying to undermine regional stability,” Olmert said. “Lebanon is responsible and Lebanon will bear the consequences of its actions.”
The ministers were briefed on the day’s events, and were presented with military options which one government source characterized as “attacking Lebanon, attacking Syria, or attacking both.”

Government officials said that Olmert decided to convene the full cabinet, rather than just the security cabinet, to increase the dramatic impact and give himself the widest possible domestic political legitimacy for his actions.

Tourism Minister Isaac Herzog told reporters after the meeting that Israel would respond in an “appropriate manner,” but he did not elaborate. Herzog said, “It is clear to everyone that the responsibility rests on the Lebanese government’s shoulders. It is a government that has Hizbullah ministers, and it knows well that Hizbullah is a terrorist organization that receives Iranian and Syrian sponsorship.”

“Throughout the recent period, Syria has proven that it is a terrorist government,” Olmert said. “It supports terrorism, it is a government that backs terrorism, it is a government that encourages the murderous actions both of terrorists located on its soil and those beyond it. Of course, there will have to be an appropriate preparation in order to deal with the conduct of the Syrian government.”

Olmert, at the press conference with Koizumi, sounded very much as if he was putting the country on a war footing.

“The State of Israel and its citizens now stand in an hour of trial,” Olmert said. “We have withstood difficult tests in the past, even more difficult and complex than these. We, the State of Israel, the entire nation, will know how to overcome those who are trying to hurt us.”

Koizumi, who said he understood Israel’s desire to exact “an eye for an eye,” urged restraint.

Olmert responded that Israel’s actions “will be very restrained, but will be very, very, very painful, as is necessitated by the reality.”
On the diplomatic front, Foreign Ministry Tzipi Livni issued a statement saying that Israel has been attacked from Lebanon, and viewed Beirut as responsible for the day’s “unprovoked aggression.”
She said the attack was a result of Lebanon’s failure to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1559 and dismantle Hizbullah.

Livni drew a line from Iran through Syria and Hizbullah to Hamas. “There is an axis of terror and hate, created by Iran, Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas that wants to end any hope for peace. The world cannot let them succeed,” she said.

The message Livni was sending to the international community was that Israel had no alternative “but to defend itself and its citizens. We also expect the international community to act.” She spoke during the day with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

So far, diplomatic officials said, the international reaction had been satisfactory.

Indicative of this was a statement issued by Finland, which holds the rotating presidency of the EU. That statement c alled on

Hizbullah to “unconditionally release the captured Israeli soldiers and cease all attacks on Israel.”

The statement also said the Lebanese government “has a responsibility to prevent a deterioration of the situation. In this context, the presidency recalls the need for the Lebanese State to restore its sovereignty over the whole of its national territory and to exercise the sole rights to the use of force on that territory.” The statement also called on all parties to exercise restraint.

Olmert said at his press conference that Wednesday’s capture of two more soldiers had not changed his position on a possible prisoner exchange.

“We have made it clear throughout that we will not give in to extortion and that we will not negotiate with terrorists regarding the lives of Israeli soldiers,” he said. “This was true yesterday and it is true today as well.”

Begin Excerpts from Article 2

War and Peace

THE JERUSALEM POST

July 13, 2006 (Israel Date)

An act of war. This is how Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has correctly described the Wednesday morning attacks on soldiers defending Israel’s sovereign border in the North. The words may also be applied to the escalating attacks across Israel’s sovereign borders in the South. The responsibility of the Israeli government in such circumstances, the responsibility of any government, is to cripple the attackers and to restore security to its people.

Hizbullah on Wednesday killed three IDF soldiers on border patrol and captured two more in an onslaught that included heavy Katyusha and mortar fire. Four more IDF soldiers died when their tank was blown up as the IDF moved into Lebanon in response.
Olmert said, “The events this morning are not terror attacks but actions of a sovereign state that attacked Israel for no reason.

The Lebanese government, of which Hizbullah is a member, is trying to undermine regional stability. Lebanon is responsible and it will bear responsibility.”

Later, Olmert elaborated on the role of Syria in supporting Hizbullah. Indeed, not only Syria but Iran are also clearly responsible for these attacks, the former by preventing Lebanon from exercising its full sovereignty and the latter as Hizbullah’s chief international sponsor. It is inconceivable that Hizbullah would carry out such attacks without the knowledge and acquiescence of the Iranian and Syrian governments, on which it is deeply dependent.
Defending Israel requires both military and diplomatic action.

Hizbullah and Hamas must be dealt direct, heavy blows from which they will not quickly recover.

The Israeli operation early Wednesday in which chief Hamas terrorist Muhammad Deif was reportedly wounded in Gaza is an example, and it is clear that the IDF’s military pressure on Hamas continues to increase.

In the North, Hizbullah’s rocket arsenal, army and terrorist training camps in southern Lebanon should be destroyed to the maximum extent possible, within the constraint of Israel’s desire not to reoccupy Lebanese territory over an extended period. We can also expect, given Olmert’s remarks, that the IDF will strike targets of importance to the Lebanese, and perhaps the Syrian governments.
It is Israel’s responsibility to defend itself by destroying the capabilities of

its attackers and imposing sufficient costs at all levels of responsibility. The government must also, however, call on the international community to reinforce, rather than undermine, the deterrent effect of such actions.

In the past, the UN Security Council has actually provided a vital incentive to Israel’s attackers by standing silent when Israel is attacked and stepping in only to restrain the Israeli response. If the international community wants to prevent future crises, this pattern must be reversed.

The European Union has appropriately called for the immediate release of the IDF soldiers captured by Hizbullah, and it clearly regards this attack as an act of unprovoked aggression.
The logic of the withdrawal from Lebanon, of last year’s disengagement, and of Olmert’s planned continuation of that strategy in Judea and Samaria, was and is the same: taking military risks, sometimes severe ones, to improve Israel’s international position in a way that deters further attacks against us. If this international support is not forthcoming or is insufficient, as has proven to be the case so far, this strategy will continue to unravel, as we have seen in recent weeks.

Israel should do what it can on its own to restore deterrence and maintain its security. But the international community must also choose whether it wants, by refusing to speak out forcefully and unequivocally against aggression, to lay the groundwork for endless and escalating rounds of attacks. An international community that has continually demanded that Israel take risks for peace must do its part to ensure that Israel’s security is increased, not decreased, as a result.

End Two Jerusalem Post Articles

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A Preview of Coming Attractions

July 12, 2006

The Special Blog we issued this morning will give you the latest details on the current northern Israeli border episode from two of Israel’s newspapers. Rest assured that Hizbollah’s actions were known by Iran and Syria in advance.

I do not believe this current episode occurring between the Hizbollah terrorist Army and Israel along the southern Lebanese will produce the Jihad I have discussed for many years against Israel. But I have made clear in numerous Archive Prophecy Updates and Blog for more than four years, I do believe it is this same type of scenario that is going to be used by Hezbollah and Syria

to justify the Jihad when it eventually does occur.

The current situation along the southern border of Lebanon is certainly not unexpected. The Hizbollah has made numerous attempts over the past several years to kidnap Israeli soldiers.

Finally, they have been able to pull it off. I titled this Blog as “Preview of Coming Attractions,” because I have repeatedly stated my belief this type of scenario will be used as justification to trigger a Jihad against Israel by 10 Arab nations. It is my guesstimate that the most likely time of this attack will be at a point in time between 2008 and 2012.

Please read Archive Prophecy Update 74D, which we issued more than four years ago, and which follows. I also implore you to read what I have written following it.

SPECIAL PROPHECY UPDATE NUMBER 74D

July 3, 2002

THE INTERNATIONAL JUSTIFICATION BLAME GAME!

WE DID IT BECAUSE THEY ATTACKED US FIRST!

The age of so-called civilized warfare really began in the era of the Napoleonic Wars of 1803 to 1815. And, with the passage of time, it has become increasingly important for the two countries involved in a conflict to convince the rest of the world the other is the culprit who started the conflict. Every time Hitler, in his early conquests, marched his troops into countries to take them over in bloodless battles, he always had an excuse to justify his attacks. Finally, when he came to his planned conquest of the Poles, he could not really find what even remotely seemed like a justifiable reason.

So he manufactured one.

He had his own SS troops dress up in Polish uniforms and attack a German border outpost.

Then the SS put dead Polish bodies in the immediate vicinity of the outpost and had photographers and reporters in to verify their story.

Using this farce as justification for his actions, he attacked Poland in September of 1939, and World War II began.

Some interesting developments, involving Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and the terrorist groups, particularly Hizbollah, have been occurring along the northern border of Israel with Lebanon. I do not believe what I am now observing in that area will lead to an immediate war, but I suspect it may well do so in the not too distant future.

And, if I am correct in my assumptions, it could give Syria justification for attacking Israel in the eyes of most of the international world.

President Bush has demanded that Syria cut it’s backing for the Hizbollah terrorists that operate along the southern border of Lebanon, and

that it expel the other Palestinian terrorist groups it currently has operating out of Syria. Damascus now hosts 10 Palestinian terrorist groups, which include the extremist groups Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. In response to the demands of President Bush, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said: “Syria supports the Lebanese national resistance, including Hizbollah, in resisting Israeli occupation and liberating land.” Concerning the demand that the other terrorist groups in Syria be removed, he said: “Their work is limited to political and media activities, and their offices in Damascus provide political representation to the 400,000 Palestinians who look to attain their rights and return to their land.” Israel has repeatedly warned Syria that if Hizbollah continued its border attacks on Israeli civilians and troops on its northern border, they would start hitting targets in Syria in retaliation. Bashar has responded by saying that Syria would defend itself against any Israeli action. He said: “If the Israeli government involves itself in waging aggression on the territory of Syria, then Syria will defend itself.”

So far Israel’s policy against recent Hizbollah attacks has shown remarkable restraint, probably because of not wanting to open a second front of conflict to the one they now have going in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Even though seven Israeli soldiers were killed by a Hizbollah terrorist team that penetrated the border fence, Israel has held back from violent retaliation. And now Bashar al-Assad has joined with Iran to provide heavier rockets for the Hizbollah arsenal of terror. Israeli officials have watched Hizbollah deploy thousands of new missiles and rockets that are aimed at Israeli civilian population centers.

Once Israel has completed its long buffer zone fence around the West Bank, and beefed up the one it already has around the Gaza Strip, it will become confident it has finally achieved the impossible, it will say it has “peace and safety.” And all the time that it was tied up internally in so doing, Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon will have been slowly slipping troops in position for a lightning Jihad from the north.

Israel’s preoccupation with its internal safety is going to cause them to slack off in their gaze on what is going on externally.

During the time that Alexander’s great empire had been divided into four sections, the Syrian section (Seleucid) held Israel some of the time, and the Egyptian section (Ptolemy) held it when they took it from the Syrians. Israel was at times a part of the Egyptian section, at times a part of the Syrian section, and at times a part of both. Daniel lists a very long series of battles between the king of the north (Syria) and the king of the South (Egypt). Most of Daniel’s prophecies about these two kingdoms were fulfilled by their many kings from Daniel 11:4 through 35, but there remains one war yet to be fulfilled, and I believe it is the aforementioned Jihad that begins in Daniel 11:40. Since Israel was once part of the section occupied by Ptolemy, I am persuaded that Israel is the king of the south and Syria is the king of the north in Daniel 11:40-45.

I suspect that after Israel has lulled itself into a false sense of peace and safety by it’s military might, it will have gained even more confidence in its great ability to take care of any Islamic intrusion. It may well be that Syria will get Hizbollah to kick up a storm of activity along the northern border by launching a massive missile and rocket attack across the border into the populations of northern Israel. Syria will do this knowing that Israel will cross the border into Lebanon and hit Syrian targets from the air. But this time Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran will be waiting for it, and six other Islamic nations will be poised to supply logistical support. The Islamic nations can cry out while they head south: “We were attacked first, we are justified in this response to the Israeli invasion of our sovereign territory.” This will cause a hesitation by the western world at first and, by the time it wakes up, Jerusalem will have fallen, and Israel will be fleeing into the Negev.

I Thessalonians 5:3,4 – For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape.

[4] But ye, brethren, are not in darkness, that that day should overtake you as a thief.

Daniel 11:40 – And at the time of the end shall the king of the south push at him: and the king of the north shall come against him like a whirlwind, with chariots, and with horsemen, and with many ships; and he shall enter into the countries, and shall overflow and pass over.

Zechariah 13:8 – And it shall come to pass, that in all the land, saith the Lord, two parts therein shall be cut off and die; but the third shall be left therein.

Revelation 12:6 – And the woman fled into the wilderness, where she hath a place prepared of God, that they should feed her there a thousand two hundred and threescore days.

First comes a time when Israel actually believes it can maintain “peace and safety.” Then a time of false “peace and safety” sets in for a brief period. Then a border incident!

Then a response! Then a Jihad, and the last 1260 days of the tribulation period are under way.

End Archive Prophecy Update Number 74D

Many believers are sticking their heads in the sand, believing they have plenty of time before the tribulation period begins.

They believe there is plenty of time left because, after all, the current European situation is not conducive to the appearance of the antichrist there in the immediate future. And surely it will take time for him to take control over the entire surface of the earth as we know it today. So while they do believe that one day an antichrist will eventually arise in Europe, it has to be an event that will perhaps occur in their grandchildren’s lives. And, even if it occurs in their lifetime, there still isn’t a problem, because they will be whisked away at the rapture just before, or as, antichrist appears. And, they say, well, even if we are wrong, and the rapture does not occur until the end of a three and one half year peace, at least we won’t be here when the Revelation seals and trumpets occur. To those of you who fall into one, or perhaps all, of these categories, I say this: you had better hope all the preachers before 1740 were wrong.

I implore you to read Special Prophecy Update 233A in our Prophecy Update Archives. You may not agree with it, but I assure you that you will know why I am adding this last paragraph on this Blog.

Special Blog on Israel and Lebanon Situation

July 12, 2006

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

I am including the latest reports from the Jerusalem Post and Haaretz in this Blog. I will issue an updated analysis this afternoon.

Begin Jerusalem Post Report

PM Olmert declares Hizbullah attack ‘act of war’ by Lebanon

Yaakov Katz and Herb Keinon, THE JERUSALEM POST

July 12, 2006

Three IDF soldiers were killed in the Hizbullah attack on IDF forces on the Lebanese border Wednesday morning, the army announced Wednesday afternoon.

The three were riding in the same Hummer jeep as two soldiers who were kidnapped in the same attack. Their families have been notified.

The kidnapping, which occurred 17 days after IDF soldier Gilad Shalit was abducted in Gaza, opened a second front on Israel’s northern border, including barrages of Katyusha rockets and mortar shells.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert declared the attack as an “act of war” and not terror. During a press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi Wednesday afternoon, he called it an unprovoked assault by a sovereign nation and held Lebanon, where Hizbullah has a minister in the government, fully responsible.

“Israel’s response will be restrained but very, very, very painful,” Olmert added.

The Defense Ministry confirmed early Wednesday afternoon that two IDF soldiers had been kidnapped by Hizbullah. IDF ground troops had been sent into Lebanon to search for the two. IAF jets, helicopters and UAVs were also flying above Lebanon searching for the soldiers. Several jets were flying patterns above Beirut, Channel 10 reported.

Simultaneously, Navy gunboats and artillery along the border were shelling Hizbullah targets in Lebanon.

The army has destroyed 17 targets as well as Hizbullah outposts and three bridges since the beginning of the operation.

Hizbullah’s Al Manar TV broadcast earlier Wednesday that the organization had kidnapped the two soldiers.

A senior Hizbullah official said that at least one of the allegedly kidnapped soldiers was still alive. A senior IDF officer landed Wednesday afternoon in the northern Druse village of Kfar Yanuh apparently to inform a family there that their son had been kidnapped.

Hizbullah launched a heavy barrage of Katyusha rockets and mortar shells at IDF positions and communities along the northern frontier on Wednesday morning starting about 9:15 a.m. One rocket scored a direct hit on a house in Shtula. Magen David Adom said they had treated six people so far. Both soldiers and civilians have been wounded.

The wounded were being evacuated to Nahariya hospital.

According to the military, an explosive charge detonated under an IDF tank, inflicting casualties.

IDF Northern Command officers were in touch with UN and Red Cross officials in Lebanon to try and conduct negotiations through those organizations with the Lebanese government in an effort to retrieve the captured soldiers diplomatically. According to IDF estimations, military campaigns in Lebanon had little chance of retrieving the soldiers.

Meanwhile, police all over the country have gone on high alert to prevent terror attacks.

According to Channel 10, Hizbullah has offered to exchange the two soldiers and Cpl.

Gilad Shalit for thousands of security prisoners.

IDF sources estimated that the attack was a Hizbullah response to Israel’s early Wednesday attempted strike on top Hamas terrorist Mohammad Deif in Gaza.

Residents of the Western Galilee entered their shelters, and in the community of Shlomi, residents were asked to enter fortified rooms early Wednesday.

The northern border has been on high alert since Operation Summer rains began.

End Jerusalem Post Article

Begin Haaretz Article

ANALYSIS: Israel prepares for widespread military escalation

By Amos Harel

On the 18th day since the abduction of Corporal Gilad Shalit, the picture has become all the more complex.

From limited fighting on a single front (the Gaza Strip), the Israel Defense Forces is now approaching what might evolve into a near outright war on two fronts.

This is the most complex crisis Israel has faced since Operation Defensive Shield in 2002, when Israel successfully curbed Hezbollah’s bid to spark a confrontation on the northern border in response to the IDF occupation of West Bank cities.

The winning formula for resolving the crisis consisted of military actions combined with diplomatic pressure.

In some respects, however, the situation now is even more complicated than in 2002, because terror groups are holding three soldiers captive: Gilad Shalit in the Gaza Strip, and two other soldiers who were captured Wednesday morning on the northern border.

The attack on Israel’s northern border was an impressive military achievement for Hezbollah and a ringing failure for the IDF. Despite Israel’s intelligence analyses and despite wide operational deployment, Hezbollah has succeeded in carrying out what it has been threatening to do for more than two years – and it couldn’t have happened at a more sensitive time.

Israel has until now responded with restraint by bombarding bridges in central Lebanon and attacking Hezbollah positions along the border. But considering the nature of the military high command’s current evaluation of the situation, it is clear that the IDF is interested in inflicting a much sharper blow on Lebanon.

Senior officers in the IDF say that the Lebanese government is responsible for the soldiers’ abduction. According to the officers, if the kidnapped soldiers are not returned alive and well, the Lebanese civilian infrastructures will regress 20, or even 50 years.

Lebanon has invested considerable resources in the rehabilitation of its civilian infrastructures from the damage sustained during its civil war in the 1970s and the years of war with Israel throughout the 1980s and 1990s.

If Israel is having difficulty in deterring Hamas in Gaza, and certainly if it is unable to bring the crisis to a conclusion, indeed Hezbollah is a much more sophisticated and experienced rival than its Palestinian counterpart.

It is safe to assume that Hezbollah planned the abduction months in advance, and that the Shi’ite organization has made every effort to conceal the location where the kidnapped soldiers are being held.

From another perspective, however, the opening of a new front somewhat eases Israel’s dilemma. It now seems that the government may be able to stop acting like it is walking on eggshells, as it has thus far.

There is every indication that Israel is on its way to a wide escalation of its military operations, both in the north and in the Gaza Strip.

End Haaretz Article

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In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

For more detailed information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. You may use material originated by this site. However, if you wish to use any quoted copyrighted material from this site, which did not originate at this site, for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner from which we extracted it.