Syria Delays War Plans to November!
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Syria Delays War Plans to November!
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August 1, 2007
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
As I indicated in our blogs prior to 2007, I do not expect a major Middle East war in 2007, but am guesstimating one will begin at some point in time after 2007 and before the end of 2012, with the most likely time being between 2010 and 2013. Many different sources have said a major war would break out this year for some time, but I have stated why I do not believe this will be the case on several occasions.
Begin Debkafile Exclusive
DEBKAfile Exclusive: Damascus has deferred its war plans from late summer to November
July 31, 2007, 10:28 PM (GMT+02:00)
This piece of intelligence was behind the Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert’s comment Tuesday, July 31: “I think this summer and fall will be less hot than we expected.” He was addressing a ceremony ending a course at the National Security College in Jerusalem on expectations from the Syrian front and in the Lebanese Hizballah.
It was attended also by defense minister Ehud Barak, Chief of staff Lt. Gen Gaby Ashkenazi and graduates.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the latest intelligence update on Syria’s intentions reached Jerusalem via Washington in the last few days. It indicated that Syria’s political and military leaders had rescheduled the start of hostilities against Israel on the Golan for the second two weeks of November, 2007, postponing their original planning by more than two months.
According to those sources, Syria plans
to kick off its offensive with a series of terrorist raids by commando units on civilian villages, military bases and highways, as well as cross-border fire on IDF vehicles and positions guarding the border.
At that stage, the Syrian command will be testing Israel’ s military re
sponses before mapping out its next moves accordingly.
Monday, Syria’s deputy foreign minister said that his country has no plans to go
to war against Israel. DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources note that the foreign ministry in Damascus has evidently not been briefed on the plans hatched by President Bashar Assad and his inner clique including
his brother-in-law, chief of military intelligence Gen.
Assaf Shawqat.
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Patriotism – Gone with the Wind – From Patriotism to the Artful Dodgers!
July 31, 2007
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
Draft dodgers no longer carry the mark of Ca in
in Israel. They are the clever ones who find a way out of defending their country
against those
who are determined to destroy it.
The invincibility of the Israeli IDF was carried high until last year’s conflict with Hizbullah. I am not Johnny-Come-Lately on commenting concerning the change in the IDF’s capacity to wage effective warfare against the enemies of Israel. From my first excursion into the Holy Land in 1952, followed by many trips until my last in 1999, I watched a highly motivated, patriotic Israeli military slowly, but surely, decline in the zeal and pride of being a part of the armed forces. With the passage of a generation from 1967 to 2007, and as I lectured across the United States, Europe, and Eurasia, and Africa from 1978 to 2006, I often addressed my concern about this decline. I have issued several articles on it in our Archives.
Begin Jerusalem Post Article 1
Barak: Draft dodging a security threat
Yaakov Katz, THE JERUSALEM POST
July 30, 2007
Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned Monday that the growing number of youth who dodge the IDF draft will eventually harm national security and turn the IDF from a “people’s army” into an “army of half the people.”
“When a soldier who goes out to the battlefield feels like a sucker, this harms national security,” Barak said during a conference at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security in memory of Ha’aretz military commentator Ze’ev Schiff who passed away last month.
Barak said that Israel needed to return to the days when military service was something to be proud of and draft dodgers carried the mark of Cain.
Barak added that Israel’s true heroes were those who served in the IDF.
“A society under an existential threat will only know how to survive if it respects those who defend it,” he said.
Ahead of the August draft,
the IDF reported damning statistics showing a sharp rise in the number of teenagers dodging military service. The total reaches 25 percent of youth born in 1989 and scheduled to enlist in the IDF this summer.
Of the 25%, some 11% received exemptions this year on grounds of being ultra-Orthodox, an increase of 1% over last year. Seven percent did not enlist for medical reasons, including physical and mental conditions.
Four percent did not enlist because of criminal records, and 3% live abroad.
Barak further blasted university lecturers and employers who do not accommodate students or workers who are called up for reserve duty.
“I wonder what Schiff would have said about the delegitimization that military service has been granted by elements in Israeli society starting with university lecturers who don’t find solutions for students who miss exams due to reserve duty,” Barak said.
Begin YNet News Article Number 2
July 31, 2007
Ethan Haber
Wearing a uniform with pride
Ehud Barak right to declare war on growing number of draft dodgers
Better late than never, an Israeli leader rose up Monday evening and settled scores with “half the population,” as he put it.
Half a population of draft-dodging parasites who send the other half, the “suckers,” to waste three years of their lives on climbing mountains and protecting Israel’s civilian population.
Ehud Barak, in the capacity of defense minister, rose up Monday evening and declared war – at least it should be hoped – on the many, way too many, who did not serve and are not serving in the IDF, on the backs of those in uniform.
Barak is well aware of it, and if heaven forbid he is not, he should be told: His war on draft dodgers should take top priority.
Draft-dodging is a cancerous growth gnawing away at the very foundations of Israeli society, as a nation and as a state. It is tearing the people apart and when war breaks out the army’s commander in chief may find himself at a total loss.
Ultimately, an assault on fire-spitting enemy outposts contradicts the nature of man and real combatants require a special mental capacity to rise up and take action.
Combatants who would risk their lives while the other half of the population “gives them the finger” are yet to be born.
At this time, it is important that the defense minister and other leaders end the phase of declarations and take action: Those who cannot serve for legitimate reasons must perform national service. Those who knowingly dodge the draft should sit behind lock and key instead of appearing on TV as second-rate singers.
Revive old values
From now on, the human resources division should scan its computers and retrieve the list of thousands of names of draft dodgers who should be made to undergo medical examinations. If they do not wish to serve, they will be handed a prison uniform and forced to sit out months in jail under the supervision of the military police. If it is still impossible to enlist them after this, we’ll close the universities and TV screens to singers who sing of the bravado of the IDF while they themselves did not want and still do not want to serve their country.
Yet we must all be aware that a real cure doesn’t take instant effect. It is a long drawn-out process of education instilled at home and within the educational institutions whereby old values such as the pride of donning a uniform must be reinstated, while draft dodgers
become weary of walking the streets.
“Indeed, half the population,” lamented renowned Hebrew poet Haim Nahman Bialik in an address at the first Hebrew teachers’ convention in Odessa almost 100 years before Ehud Barak. Obviously, he had no idea that his words would be so fitting in the days of July-August 2007.
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from which we extracted it.
Could be Last Real Attempt to Deliver Peace to the Holy Land!
July 31, 2007
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
The first article, titled “Mood for Peace in Holy Land,” is about a mood that does not exist among the bastards of the radical branch of Islam.
General George S. Patton, in the second article, describes the mood of bastards with Martyr’s complexes, which ultimately causes them to lose wars. I think we should do everyth ing
possible to accommodate the desire of Muslims to be martyrs for the cause of Allah.
Begin Article 1
Mood for Peace in Holy Land
The Australian
Martin Chulov
July 30, 2007
TONY Blair will lead an ensemble cast of envoys back to the Middle East this week as the West attempts to build on its best – and maybe last – attempt to deliver peace to the region.
Arriving around the same time will be US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defence Secretary Robert Gates. Both are expected to arrive with a package of sweeteners for the new Palestinian Authority Prime Minister, Salaam Fayyad, who they have entrusted to forge a lasting peace with Israel.
As talks step up over moves for a two-state solution, openings have also emerged on normalising relations with regional pariah Syria.
Adding impetus to hopes of at least one groundbreaking deal, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown is also sending an emissary, former BBC reporter and senior adviser Michael Phillips.
The Turks and the Norwegians — two of the handful of nations to have maintained contacts with Hamas — also say they are ready to send delegates. The Arab League, under whose name the Egyptian and Jordanian foreign ministers dined in Jerusalem with Israeli leaders last week, are similarly backing the talks.
For the first time since the failed talks in 2000 between the then Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak and the late Palestine Liberation Organisation chairman Yasser Arafat, the Holy Land is poised for something profound. Yet no one is sure what it will be.
The thorn in the side of the Palestinian front is the fact that neither the newly appointed Mr Fayyad nor the other man in whom the West places great trust, President Mahmoud Abbas, can deliver a Palestinian state, with about 40 per cent of all Palestinians — those living in Gaza — not represented by their Government.
Gaza remains isolated from the rapidly building ties between Israel and the Palestinian leadership in the West Bank after an armed Hamas coup overthrew the Fatah-led forces of Mr Abbas, many of whom Hamas leaders claimed were in turn trying to overthrow them.
Hamas’s leadership, sacked in the aftermath, is now running Gaza, home to 1.4 million people, as a giant town council, focusing on service delivery, law and order and other basic tenants of administration.
It is effectively a state within a state — and the US and Israel have demanded it stay that way for now.
But criticism and concern is mounting in diplomatic circles about what to do with Gaza — a potential deal-breaker in any final solution. Key Western diplomats contacted over the past fortnight say that by empowering a weakened and militarily defeated Mr Abbas in the West Bank only, they are denying him the chance to deliver the far more profound prize of a signed and sealed Palestinian state representing its entire people. The position has been described as a policy at war with itself.
Israeli leaders have adopted the position that Gaza can wait. Much more pressing for them is relations with the Arab world.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said at the weekend that the Arab League, the body that represents the interests of the Arab World, awaited an Israeli reply to a proposal put by him and Jordanian Foreign
Minister Abdul Ilah al-Khatib last week.
The deal offered Israel full recognition in the Arab world in return for Israel pulling back to the pre-1967 borders with Jordan and Syria and facilitating a solution for Palestinian refugees and their families living in camps around the region.
“There is a feeling in Israel for the need to push the peace process forward,” said the two foreign ministers, who met the full spectrum of Israel’s leadership, arriving in Israel for the first time under the Arab League banner.
“There exists an opportunity that must be utilised,” said Mr Aboul Gheit, outlining to an Egyptian newspaper his meetings with the Israelis, including right-wing opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu. “We presented to him the Arab position.
Netanyahu focused on the importance of economic co-operation between Israel and the Palestinians to benefit the Palestinians. We also spoke about the need to revive the peace process.
“In general, I can say that Netanyahu does not express opposition to the Arab initiative although he wanted
to check some points, especially in relation to the Palestinian refugees. He wanted to know the principles of the initiative. In a general manner he did not rule out the initiative.”
Both Egypt and Jordan have long been at peace with Israel and the Jewish State has asked for members of other Arab states, which do not recognise it, to join any further delegations.
Israel has not given a time frame for its response to the Arab League proposal, which was first tabled in late-May. But Israeli Government officials say they are focusing first on the Palestinian front, which for now offers the best chance for progress.
Begin Article 2
General Patton and President Ahmadinejad Contrasting Views
July 30, 2007
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
Begin Independent Media Review Analysis (IRNA)
July 30, 2007
[Patton contrast]Iranian President Ahmadinejad: Defeat meaningless for those believing in martyrdom]
[“Now I want you to remember that no bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country.” General George S. Patton – May 31, 1944]
President: Defeat meaningless for those believing in martyrdom
Tehran, July 30, IRNA
www2.irna.com/en/news/view/menu-234/0707306466184433.htm
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Monday that defeat is meaningless for those believing in martyrdom.
Speaking to officials in charge of holding ceremony commemorating martyrdom of 36,000 army commanders during eight years of sacred defence, he said martyr seeking spirit would is the strongest shelter against enemies’ guns and machine guns and no one can confront a nation with such a high morale.
“The martyrdom seeking culture will protect us against all social problems,” he said.
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In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site
is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more detailed information go to:
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IT IS HAPPENING AGAIN!
July 30, 2007
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
I watched it happen in 1948, 1956, 1967, and 1973 – and NOW it is happening again!
Before each major outbreak of hostilities between Israel and the many Arab nations surrounding her, there has been the flow of arms into the Middle East by “the West” and “the East” for a multiplicity of “National Interests.” It has been for National Interests centered around economic, political, and world power domination on the part of both the West and the East, with the key word underlying the entire scenario being OIL.
This scenario will not change until the end of the final battle at Armageddon, when Christ comes to change the National Interests of all nations of the earth, reigning over them from Jerusalem as the King of Kings and Lord of Lords.
This massive buildup of weapons this time will only be dissipated by the use of them in the next war, in what I believe will be the last great war to close the age of the local, visible Church and Gentile domination over Israel.
Ephesians 3:21 – Unto him be glory in the church by Christ Jesus throughout all ages, world without end. Amen.
The Church will continue eternally and God will receive glory from her throughout all ages by Christ Jesus, but Armageddon will end with Israel being brought back into the good graces of her King.
The coming major Middle East war will be the final war of the Age of the Gentiles, which began when Jesus declared the Temple Mount to be spiritually desolate just before he was rejected by Israel as the King who was sent to bring in the Kingdom of the long awaited Messiah of Israel.
Matthew 23:37-39 – O Jerusalem, Jerusalem, thou that killest the prophets, and stonest them which are sent unto thee, how often would I have gathered thy children together, even as a hen gathereth her chickens under her wings, and ye would not! [38] Behold, your house is left unto you desolate. [39] For I say unto you, Ye shall not see me henceforth, till ye shall say, Blessed is he that cometh in the name of the Lord.
Romans 11:32 – For God hath concluded them all in unbelief, that he might have mercy upon all.
Christ will return as Messiah at Armageddon to bring in the Kingdom as
the fullness of the Gentile Age ends, and He starts His Second Advent as the King of Israel and all the nations of the world.
Romans 11:25-29 – For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
[26] And so all Israel shall be saved: as it is written, There shall come out of Sion the Deliverer, and shall turn away ungodliness from Jacob: [27] For this is my covenant unto them, when I shall take away their sins. [28] As concerning the gospel, they are enemies for your sakes: but as touching the election, they are beloved for the fathers’ sakes. [29] For the gifts and calling of God are without repentance.
Zechariah 14:8,9 – And it shall be in that day, that living waters shall go out from Jerusalem; half of them toward the former sea, and half of them toward the hinder sea: in summer and in winter shall it be.
[9] And the Lord shall be king over all the earth: in that day shall there be one Lord, and his name one.
Begin YNet News Article
Arming the Arabs
Are massive American arms sales to Arab countries bad for Israel
?
YNet News
Ron Ben Yishai
July 30, 2007
It will probably be the largest arms deal in the history of the Middle East: Advanced American weapons systems worth a total of about $40 billion will be sold over the next 15 years to America’s allies in the region.
The main objective is to create a strategic-military balance vis-à-vis the rise of Iran and curb the erosion in Washington’s regional standing – an erosion that may grow stronger following the withdrawal from Iraq in two or three years’ time and that could even threaten the West’s oil supply.
Just like the rulers of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait, the Americans also know that moderate Arab countries would be unable to deal with Iran on their own and address the Iraqi civil war, even after the arms deals are completed.
Yet Washington also knows that those who buy massive quantities of sophisticated American weapons boost their dependency on America when it comes to maintaining and using those weapons.
No less important: Those who buy weapons from America don’t buy arms from Russia and China, which are trying to bolster their influence in the region and partially cooperate with Teheran.
In addition, there is no doubt that the immense profits to be reaped by America’s military industries through these huge deals constitute an important factor in the Bush Administration’s and Republican Party’s considerations. Strategy and money don’t always go well together, yet this time they do.
The question is, of course, how will the deals affect the State of Israel’s security? On the one hand, the selling of sophisticated weapons to Arab armies erodes Israel’s technological-military supremacy and boosts the potential threat against it. This threat is particularly grave at this time, with radical Islam threatening to undermine the stability of secular Arab regimes and the real danger of radicals taking over sophisticated weapons systems.
It happened in Iran and could also happen in Saudi Arabia or Egypt. We should also take into account less extreme scenarios: for example, a radical Muslim pilot from Saudi Arabia or an Egyptian missile boat commander who decide on their own to carry out an attack against us and use a sophisticated and advanced US weapons system to accurately hit strategic Israeli targets.
Yet there’s another side to this coin: In the framework of the Mideastern deal, the US intends to boost the annual military aid granted to Israel by 25 percent. At this time, this aid amounts to $2.4 billion a year. Starting in 2009, Israel will receive an addition of about $900 million per year on average for a period of 10 years, a total of $9 billion.
Such a sum of money is no small matter. In fact, it would enable Israel to transfer to the American taxpayer the costs of developing and purchasing weapons systems that would allow it to better contend with Iranian, Syrian, Hizbullah and even Hamas threats, both defensively and offensively. These threats will increase once Tehran possesses nuclear weapons.
Despite its growing economy, Israel alone doesn’t have the resources needed to fund the proper development and procurement of terribly expensive weapons systems needed to deter the “axis of evil” while quickly and efficiently thwarting attempts to hit the Jewish state. Therefore, the American aid is not merely an option – rather, it’s a necessity that Israel needs under any conditions.
AIPAC’s declining influence
The Bush Administration has not officially conditioned the boosting of military aid to Israel on the latter refraining from attempts aimed at torpedoing the weapons deals with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other Arab countries in Congress. Indeed, it is highly doubtful whether Israel is even able to do that, in light of AIPAC’s relative decline lately and the strength of
the American military-industrial complex lobby.
Yet it’s clear that political efforts to torpedo the grand deal may also delay the provision of boosted aid to Israel. Therefore, Jerusalem must carefully consider whether it should express vocal objection to the provision of sophisticated weapons to the Arabs.
In this context it should be noted that moderate Arab regimes proved in recent years a rather strong capability in addressing radical Muslims. Moreover, the attitude of such regimes (the Saudi royal house, for example) to Israel is changing for the better and Israeli objection to arming them may be interpreted as a hostile act.
In addition, the armies of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and also Egypt will be completely dependent on American experts.
The more sophisticated the weapons are, the more difficult it is to maintain and operate them. Therefore, instead of focusing on a sweeping attempt to prevent the provision of sophisticated American weapons to those countries, it would be better for Israel to focus on reaching an agreement with the Administration regarding the extent of US command and control over these weapons and training sessions in Arab countries.
For example, it would be enough for the Americans to have control over several critical electronic components in the homing mechanisms and fuses of satellite-guided “smart bombs” and other items in order to neutralize a significant part of the danger they pose to Israel.
Besides, from an Israeli point of view, the danger and also benefit of the Mideastern deal depends to a large extent on the details and fine print of the agreements, which have not yet been finalized with the parties involved. Many weapons systems, should they be provided to Arab countries in a certain manner, do not substantially endanger Israel’s security.
Yet the factor that would truly determine whether this deal is bad or good for the Jews is what we ask for and receive. If we waste the additional American aid on purchasing military uniforms, protective vests, and light weapons, this deal will ultimately undermine our security instead of boosting it.
Yet if we ask the Americans to increase the aid funds that can be converted from dollars to shekels, for the purpose of developing and acquiring unique and advanced Israeli-made systems for countering the missile rocket threat, and if we ask the Americans for systems we do not currently possess, such as huge and accurate bunker-busting bombs, stealth fighter jets, unique missiles, and intelligence gathering means – there is no doubt that in several years our security situation will be better.
After all, it has already been said in the past that God and Satan are in the small details…
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Passing through the Autumnal Equinox may see a Major Lebanese Governmental Crisis!
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July 30, 2007
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
This ye ar, two d
ays after the Sun has passed the equator on its annual autumnal equinox trip into the Southern Hemisphere on September 23, Lebanon could well be facing a major showdown in government, which began after the Syrian Army pulled out in 2004. If Hizbullah and Syria intend to pull off a coup, and take over the government, then this would seem
to be an ideal time to make their move.
With the election of a new Lebanese President scheduled for September 25, there will be increasing tension between the rival political parties, the Army, and Hizbullah throughout August and September.
Begin YNet News Breaking Report
Breaking YNet News
French FM leaves Lebanon without breakthroughs
July 30, 2007
France’s Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner brought together rival Lebanese leaders for lunch at the French Embassy on Sunday, describing the meeting as a “success” and an encouraging sign.
The meeting came a day after Kouchner warned that Lebanon could face a new civil war if its feuding political chiefs failed to resolve the crisis threatening to tear the country apart.
(AP)
Begin Daily Star Editorial
The only pressing goal now is to ensure that Lebanon survives its own politicians
By The Daily Star
July 26, 2007
Editorial
In exactly 61 days, Lebanon is set to enter its worst crisis since the height of the Civil War, but the country’s political leaders seem to have not yet realized that time is no longer on their side. Little progress has been made over the past eight months in terms of addressing the power struggle that has paralyzed the constitutional institutions of this country and brought economic
and politic
al progress to a screeching halt.
On September 25, when Parliament is scheduled to elect a president to replace Emile Lahoud, these problems will only be exacerbated unless steps are taken soon to avert an impending disaster.
Virtually every head of state in the region, along with top-level officials from Western countries, has weighed in on Lebanon’s political crisis and made an effort to encourage rival factions to engage in dialogue to resolve their differences. Even though these mediation attempts have at various times looked promising, Lebanese leaders have so far proven themselves either unable or unwilling to make progress toward a final solution. So far, any genuine concern Lebanese leaders have for their country has been eclipsed by the priority of their own interests. All and sundry have resisted attempts at compromise and then tried to shift the responsibility for their own failings by blaming “foreign interference” for the degenerating state of affairs in this country.
Young Lebanese, particularly those whose talents and skills are marketable around the world, would probably like nothing more than to stay in
their own country and see their politicians get past their petty differences and busy themselves instead with the long-neglected task of governance. Yet the fact that their politicians are still struggling to achieve a face-to-face meeting and are giving no hints of an impending breakthrough gives these youths little reason to be optimistic. Each day that goes by sees untold numbers of them packing their bags and leaving the country, depriving Lebanon of its most valuable resource: its young, educated and talented
young citizens whose contributions are vital for economic recovery. Discord and instability have already driven perhaps hundreds of thousands of them to leave, and if September approaches without a political agreement, thousands more will probably follow.
Hardly anyone now speaks of the lofty goals that were championed in the wake of Syria’s withdrawal from the country in 2004. At this point the goals of substantive political and economic reform have all taken a back seat to the humble objective of ensuring that Lebanon survives its own leaders’ attempts to push the country into extinction. Securing a solution – any solution – that would prevent the country’s demise has become the new benchmark for political “success” in Lebanon. Still, it often seems as though Lebanon’s inept political elite will fail to meet even that most basic challenge. Another window of opportunity will be presented to rival factions over the weekend, when France’s foreign minister arrives to lead another mediation effort.
No one is likely to be forgiving if Lebanese leaders forfeit what may be a last chance to avert the death of a nation.
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http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml.
You may use material originated by this site. However, if you wish to use any quoted copyrighted material from this site, which did not originate at this site, for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner from which we extracted it.