Special Blog on Israel and Lebanon Situation
July 12, 2006
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
I am including the latest reports from the Jerusalem Post and Haaretz in this Blog. I will issue an updated analysis this afternoon.
Begin Jerusalem Post Report
PM Olmert declares Hizbullah attack ‘act of war’ by Lebanon
Yaakov Katz and Herb Keinon, THE JERUSALEM POST
July 12, 2006
Three IDF soldiers were killed in the Hizbullah attack on IDF forces on the Lebanese border Wednesday morning, the army announced Wednesday afternoon.
The three were riding in the same Hummer jeep as two soldiers who were kidnapped in the same attack. Their families have been notified.
The kidnapping, which occurred 17 days after IDF soldier Gilad Shalit was abducted in Gaza, opened a second front on Israel’s northern border, including barrages of Katyusha rockets and mortar shells.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert declared the attack as an “act of war” and not terror. During a press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi Wednesday afternoon, he called it an unprovoked assault by a sovereign nation and held Lebanon, where Hizbullah has a minister in the government, fully responsible.
“Israel’s response will be restrained but very, very, very painful,” Olmert added.
The Defense Ministry confirmed early Wednesday afternoon that two IDF soldiers had been kidnapped by Hizbullah. IDF ground troops had been sent into Lebanon to search for the two. IAF jets, helicopters and UAVs were also flying above Lebanon searching for the soldiers. Several jets were flying patterns above Beirut, Channel 10 reported.
Simultaneously, Navy gunboats and artillery along the border were shelling Hizbullah targets in Lebanon.
The army has destroyed 17 targets as well as Hizbullah outposts and three bridges since the beginning of the operation.
Hizbullah’s Al Manar TV broadcast earlier Wednesday that the organization had kidnapped the two soldiers.
A senior Hizbullah official said that at least one of the allegedly kidnapped soldiers was still alive. A senior IDF officer landed Wednesday afternoon in the northern Druse village of Kfar Yanuh apparently to inform a family there that their son had been kidnapped.
Hizbullah launched a heavy barrage of Katyusha rockets and mortar shells at IDF positions and communities along the northern frontier on Wednesday morning starting about 9:15 a.m. One rocket scored a direct hit on a house in Shtula. Magen David Adom said they had treated six people so far. Both soldiers and civilians have been wounded.
The wounded were being evacuated to Nahariya hospital.
According to the military, an explosive charge detonated under an IDF tank, inflicting casualties.
IDF Northern Command officers were in touch with UN and Red Cross officials in Lebanon to try and conduct negotiations through those organizations with the Lebanese government in an effort to retrieve the captured soldiers diplomatically. According to IDF estimations, military campaigns in Lebanon had little chance of retrieving the soldiers.
Meanwhile, police all over the country have gone on high alert to prevent terror attacks.
According to Channel 10, Hizbullah has offered to exchange the two soldiers and Cpl.
Gilad Shalit for thousands of security prisoners.
IDF sources estimated that the attack was a Hizbullah response to Israel’s early Wednesday attempted strike on top Hamas terrorist Mohammad Deif in Gaza.
Residents of the Western Galilee entered their shelters, and in the community of Shlomi, residents were asked to enter fortified rooms early Wednesday.
The northern border has been on high alert since Operation Summer rains began.
End Jerusalem Post Article
Begin Haaretz Article
ANALYSIS: Israel prepares for widespread military escalation
By Amos Harel
On the 18th day since the abduction of Corporal Gilad Shalit, the picture has become all the more complex.
From limited fighting on a single front (the Gaza Strip), the Israel Defense Forces is now approaching what might evolve into a near outright war on two fronts.
This is the most complex crisis Israel has faced since Operation Defensive Shield in 2002, when Israel successfully curbed Hezbollah’s bid to spark a confrontation on the northern border in response to the IDF occupation of West Bank cities.
The winning formula for resolving the crisis consisted of military actions combined with diplomatic pressure.
In some respects, however, the situation now is even more complicated than in 2002, because terror groups are holding three soldiers captive: Gilad Shalit in the Gaza Strip, and two other soldiers who were captured Wednesday morning on the northern border.
The attack on Israel’s northern border was an impressive military achievement for Hezbollah and a ringing failure for the IDF. Despite Israel’s intelligence analyses and despite wide operational deployment, Hezbollah has succeeded in carrying out what it has been threatening to do for more than two years – and it couldn’t have happened at a more sensitive time.
Israel has until now responded with restraint by bombarding bridges in central Lebanon and attacking Hezbollah positions along the border. But considering the nature of the military high command’s current evaluation of the situation, it is clear that the IDF is interested in inflicting a much sharper blow on Lebanon.
Senior officers in the IDF say that the Lebanese government is responsible for the soldiers’ abduction. According to the officers, if the kidnapped soldiers are not returned alive and well, the Lebanese civilian infrastructures will regress 20, or even 50 years.
Lebanon has invested considerable resources in the rehabilitation of its civilian infrastructures from the damage sustained during its civil war in the 1970s and the years of war with Israel throughout the 1980s and 1990s.
If Israel is having difficulty in deterring Hamas in Gaza, and certainly if it is unable to bring the crisis to a conclusion, indeed Hezbollah is a much more sophisticated and experienced rival than its Palestinian counterpart.
It is safe to assume that Hezbollah planned the abduction months in advance, and that the Shi’ite organization has made every effort to conceal the location where the kidnapped soldiers are being held.
From another perspective, however, the opening of a new front somewhat eases Israel’s dilemma. It now seems that the government may be able to stop acting like it is walking on eggshells, as it has thus far.
There is every indication that Israel is on its way to a wide escalation of its military operations, both in the north and in the Gaza Strip.
End Haaretz Article
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