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U.S. Ships Posted in Israeli and Lebanese Coastal Waters

Gaza & Hizbullah Trouble Causing U.S. Ships to Move in Closer

Sometimes a Storm is followed by a Calm most Welcome to Survivors

February 29, 2008

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Begin DEBKAfile Report

US warships move into E. Mediterranean in case Gaza escalation spills over into Lebanon

February 29, 2008, 1:30 PM (GMT+02:00)

Friday, Feb. 29, Egypt’s intelligence minister Omar Suleiman canceled his visit to Israel because of estimates in Cairo that hectic preparations current in Israel and the Gaza Strip augur a steep escalation of cross-border violence.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report: Officials in Cairo expect Israel redouble its air bombardment and armored raids against Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, and Hamas to intensify and broaden the scope of its missile and rocket attacks on Israeli towns and villages.

Both sides are convinced that a further ratcheting-up of the war will generate indirect truce talks through a third party.

The US has meanwhile posted naval and marine vessels opposite the shores of Israel and Lebanon in case the fighting spreads to a second front. DEBKAfile’s Washington sources quote US and Israeli military sources as skeptical of the chances that prime minister Ehud Olmert and defense minister Ehud Barak will secure a ceasefire. The Gaza conflagration is more likely, they believe, to stir Hizballah to ignite a fresh assault from South Lebanon.

These sources point to four significant developments to watch for:
1. Hizballah is adamant about avenging the death of its military commander Imad Mughniyeh by border strikes against Israel and terrorist attacks inside the country. This Iranian front group is also committed to helping Hamas.

The end of the 40 days of mourning for Mughniyeh on March 22-23 is anxiously awaited.

2. Israel is braced for this eventuality and in mid-preparation for its army to turn the tables on a Hizballah assault

and carry the war into Lebanon.

US intelligence sources note that last week, the IDF deployed Patriot missile defense batteries around Haifa in case Hizballah unleashes a rocket offensive on the North as in 2005.

Our sources also report that local authorities and private security firms responsible for public safety in northern Israel were instructed to inspect bomb shelters and ascertain they were ready for use by March 10.

3. The quarrel between Saudi King Abdullah and Syrian president Bashar Assad, which is nearing boiling point, threatens to be fought out in Lebanon, their main bone of contention. Both are sending quantities of arms and ammo to the Lebanese militias under their respective wings.

4. This week, Abdullah persuaded Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and Jordan’s Abdullah to boycott the forthcoming Arab League summit in Damascus. Assad is unlikely to take this slap in the face lying down. There are indications he is ready to stir up Palestinian terror

ist groups for attacks on Saudi, American and Israeli interests in the region.

Standing close by for immediate action off the troubled Mediterranean shores of Lebanon, Israel and Gaza is the USS Cole guided missile destroyer opposite Lebanon. It was joined Monday by the USS Nassau amphibious warship and its strike group of six vessels carrying 2,800 marines, flight crews and sailors. US naval sources report that a third group will join them shortly.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report the Nassau is accompanied by the amphibious transport dock ship USS Nashville , the guided missile destroyers USS Ross and USS Bulkeley and the fast nuclear strike submarine USS Albany SSN 753.

While cru ising off the Lebanese coast, th

is formidable US naval force is close enough to the shores of Israel and Gaza to respond to developing emergencies.

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Gaza Situation Cannot Continue As Is!

Something Must Give Due to Public Pressure!

Ground Operation May Eventually Produce A Hudna!

February 29, 2008

http://www.tribulationperiod,com/

If Israeli were to inflict a serious wound on Hamas’ forces, Hamas will seek a long term hudna to recover its strength.

I do not know precisely when Israel will launch such an attack, but the IDF is ready to do it immediately when the order does come down, and the Israeli public is putting the squeeze on the Knesset to launch it.

Begin Jerusalem Post Article 1

Israel prepares world opinion for assault on Gaza

Herb Keinon, THE JERUSALEM POST

February 28, 2008

As Hamas drew Ashkelon

into the circle of communities coming under heavy rocket attacks, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and the Foreign Ministry on Thursday began preparing both Israeli and world opinion for the possibility of a large-scale incursion into Gaza.

Barak, during a series of meetings at the Defense Ministry, said, “We should be prepared for an upswing in hostilities in Gaza.

The big ground operation is a reality and it is tangible. We are not eager to embark upon such an operation, but we are not put off by it either.”

According to defense sources, the goals of such an operation – reportedly in the planning stages for weeks if not months – would not “merely” be to reduce the threat of rocket fire and rocket manufacturing in the Gaza Strip, but would also likely entail paralyzing the Hamas government’s ability to operate, and even include “regime change.”

Barak spoke with Quartet envoy Tony Blair and Egyptian intelligence head Omar Suleiman and said Israel could not tolerate the current level of rocket fire in the South without offering a wider response.

Barak also offered hints as to his plans, telling local community leaders gathered at Sapir Academic College outside Sderot that “the solution to Kassams will be a lot quicker than many people think.”

And the Foreign Ministry, in talking points sent to its representatives abroad, instructed them to say that when Israel left the Gaza Strip in 2005 it did so without the intention of ever returning, but that the continuation of terrorist attacks was likely to place the country in a position where it may have no other choice.

The ministry also instructed its representatives to reveal that the Grad missiles that were fired at Ashkelon on Thursday were smuggled through Sinai from Iran.

According to one diplomatic source, stressing the Iranian origin of the missiles showed the importance of aggressive action to stop the smuggling and isolate Hamas from Syria and Iran, which “directs the organization’s terrorist actions.”

“We have warned for a while about the arming of Hamas, and what is happening now is proof of this,” the official said.

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni also seemed to be preparing the world for stepped up Israeli action, telling visiting Lithuanian Foreign Minister Petras Vaitiekunas that the international community should “respect” all actions that Israel takes to protects its citizens.

Livni said Israel rejected condemnations and arguments that there were casualties on both sides of the fence, saying “there is no moral equivalence between terrorists and those fighting them, even if during those actions innocent civilians are accidentally killed. In these cases the world should not come to us – there is only one address for the Palestinian situation in Gaza and for what is likely to happen there in the future – and it is Hamas.”

Foreign Minister director-general Aaron Abramovich traveled to Cairo on Thursday for talks with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit about the situation on the Egyptian-Gaza border.

Government officials said that while Abramovich wanted to concentrate on how to combat the arms smuggling across and under the Philadelphi Corridor, Gheit was more interested in talking about how to get the Rafah crossing re-opened.

The talks came in preparation for a high level discussion on the situation on the border excepted early next week with the arrival on Tuesday of both US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Suleiman.

In light of the recent tension with Egypt over the situation on the border, the Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying the Israeli delegation “stressed the strategic importance of the relationship between Israel and Egypt, in enhancing and addressing challenges to peace in the region and promoting peaceful coexistence.”

In a related development, government officials said Israel was not getting “too excited” over an interview Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas gave to a Jordanian newspaper that appeared Thursday saying he did not rule out returning to the path of armed “resistance” against Israel.

The official said these comments were aimed at Abbas’s domestic audience and that Abbas should be judged by his deeds – a willingness to negotiate peace – rather than by statements “meant for internal consumption.

In an interview with Al-Dustur, Abbas also took pride that he had been the first to fire a bullet on Israel in 1965 and that his organization, Fatah, had trained Hizbullah. “At this present juncture, I am opposed to armed struggle because we cannot succeed in it, but maybe in the future things will be different,” he said.

Rebecca Anna Stoil contributed to this report.

Begin Jerusalem Post Article 2

‘Hamas will soon be able to strike any target in Israel’

JPost.comStaff, THE JERUSALEM POST

February 29, 2008

Hamas is improving its rocket technology, and will soon be able to “any target in Israel,” Reuters quoted a senior member of the organization, Fathi Hamad, saying Friday at a rally in the Gaza Strip.

Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, who was recently reported to have “gone underground” out of fear he would be targeted for assassination by Israel, also spoke at the demonstration. Haniyeh addressed the possibility of a large-scale IDF incursion into Gaza.

“[Such an] operation would end in total failure for Israel, just like the rest of its operations in the past,” Haniyeh declared.

“Israel is living under a delusion if it believes that it can topple the Hamas regime in Gaza… Even if Israel kills our leaders, it can’t damage the purpose of [our] struggle,” he continued.

Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri also spoke about a possible IDF operation in the Gaza Strip, saying that Hamas was “in a war against the new Nazis.”

Zuhri’s comment came after Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilna’i said Friday that “as long as the rocket attacks escalated, the Palestinians are bringing upon themselves a bigger Shoah [Holocaust].”

Begin DEBKAfile Report

Israeli leaders approach mediators for a ceasefire with Hamas

February 29, 2008, 1:15 AM (GMT+02:00)

Reporting this, DEBKAfile’s sources say Hamas would claim it had came out ahead of this round after the Israeli Air Force and army failed to stop its two-day barrage of 105 missiles and rockets.

Ashkelon, brought firmly into the Palestinian rocket cycle Wednesday, Feb. 27, was hit by a dozen Grad (Katyusha) rockets Thursday, injuring three people and sending 55 to hospital in a state of shock.

The damage to the town of more than 120,000 was extensive. Thursday night, defense minister Barak finally approved the Red Color alert system which gives victims seconds to run for shelter from an incoming Qassam missile or rocket.

Our military sources report that some 20 Israeli air strikes over the Gaza Strip against Palestinian missile teams and Hamas command centers, which left 14 dead, including four children, there was no perceptible easing off on the missile fire, especially against Ashkelon.

Those sources add that, despite the defense minister’s assurances that effective military to terminate the missile and rocket attacks was coming soon, no immediate preparations are in sight for a large-scale military action in the Gaza Strip.

Members of the Olmert government have been focusing on leaning hard on Hamas to accept a truce by targeted air strikes aimed at reducing the volume of missile fire.

This strategy failed for lack of ground action. The more frequent the air raids, the heavier the missile barrages and the broader the scope of their targets. Hamas topped Wednesday’s score of 50 missiles and rockets by shooting more than 60 Thursday – most aimed at Ashkelon and Sderot.

Israeli officers reported signs that the Palestinian terrorists were planning to expand their offensive Friday and over the weekend; their Katyushas may now be aimed at the southern districts of Ashdod, north of Ashkelon.

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Israel’s Reason for not taking back the Strip!

Who wants to be responsible for a Slimy Arm Pit

Costing a Hundred Times more than it has been Worth

?

The Strip has been a Thorn in Israel’s side since Joshua’s Time!

February 29, 2008

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Israel does not want to again be in the position of being classified as an occupier of the Gaza Strip, especially since it is more trouble than it is worth! I have been trying to make this point since Israel pulled out.

My three articles from last year,

which precede the DEBKAfile article on the Gaza Strip, give good reasons why Israel is so hesitant to take it back by a major IDF ground war.

However, the pressure is becoming extreme for Israel to launch a major IDF ground operation into the Strip without reoccupying it, and it does seem likely they will soon yield to this ever mounting pressure.

I feel confident the operation they have in mind will stun Hamas. In the end such an operation could well lead to a long term hudna between Hamas and Israel. If Israel was able to inflict a heavy blow to Hamas forces, I believe Hamas would seek a long term Hudna to rebuild its strength.

There has never been any question that all this Middle East madness will eventually lead to the last great war of the Age of the Gentiles, but I have long believed that a hudna or long term truce will be reached with Hamas before such a war begins.

Archive Article 1

The Gaza Strip – The Armpit of Israel that will not go Away!

March 14, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

The human ability to find ways to escape the inevitable is astounding!

If someone asks a group of people, “Please raise your hand if you think you will die one day?” – All hands should rise. If a second question was then asked, “How many of you that lifted your hands, believe you will die today?” – The response would be nil! In essence, we all believe we will eventually leave this flesh or be buried in it, but the event is always going to be tomorrow, not today.

The cauldron just keeps on boiling as the witches of Hizbollah stir it on Israel’s northern border, while several terrorist groups on its southern border mix their poisonous Gaza ingredients into the mixture.

It is difficult for me to understand how anyone, believer or unbeliever, can believe this hodge-podge of mass confusion and Middle East hatred, will end up any other way than in a great Middle East War. There is a question only to when it will begin in earnest!

Since I am a believer, and thoroughly convinced the conflict is an event of the near future, there is little I can do, except to warn believers to watch and keep their garments while they wait, and to warn unbelievers to turn to the mercy of God in Christ Jesus before it is too late.

Archive Article 2

Gaza, Gaza, Go Away, Let Hell Break Out Another Day!

June 13, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com./

Israel is growing closer and closer to her date with prophetic destiny. The Gaza Strip, the homeland of the uncircumcised Philistines, has always been a thorn in Israel’s side that seems impossible to pull out. It is the smelly armpit of the Middle East, and will play a major role in the events that one day lead up to the initial Islamic attack that sets off a war.

Archive Article 3

The Slime Pit of Israel just will not go away!

November 9, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com

Gaza, the slime pit of Israel, has been a thorn in Israel’s side since the days of the Philistines. If the Gaza Strip slipped into the Mediterranean Sea during an earthquake, the tears shed by Israel would be like those shed by an alligator while digesting a large meal due to internal stress in its digestive processes.

Judging from Article 1 from the Jerusalem Post, Israel intends to hold off on launching a major operation into the Gaza Strip until after the 26th of November Annapolis Conference. And according to statements in Article 2, there will be “a hot time in the old town tonight” when the operation is eventually launched.

Begin Jerusalem Post Article 1 (November 9, 2007)

‘Israel planning large Gaza operation’

JPost. com Staff, THE JERUSALEM POST

November 9, 2007

Israel has informed PA authorities in Ramallah of its intention to send the IDF into the Gaza Strip in order to regain control of the Philadelphi Corridor and put an end to Hamas smuggling of weapons and cash through tunnels from the Egyptian side of the border, the London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi reported Friday morning.

According to the report, Israel has told a number of Arab states that after the November 26 Annapolis conference it intends to embark on an extensive operation in the Strip.

Palestinian sources received explicite information stating that during the projected first stage of the operation, Israel is determined to gain control of Rafah and areas along the Egyptian border ranging as far as Khan Yunis, the paper said. The second stage will reportedly include an incursion into the central and northern Gaza Strip.

According to Al-Quds Al-Arabi’s sources, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who rejected out of hand Israel’s plan to recapture the Philadelphi Corridor, intends to send emissaries to regional countries in an effort to convey the sense of urgency regarding the danger of an Israeli incursion.

Abbas, the paper said, will state that an Israeli incursion would destroy the Gaza Strip and its infrastructure.

Begin Today’s DEBKAfile Article

Some 35 missiles fired at Ashkelon and Sderot on second day of massive Palestinian offensive

February 28, 2008, 5:16 PM (GMT+02:00)

Eight extended-range Grad or Katyusha rockets blast several Ashkelon districts leaving 18 people injured, mostly shock victims, reaching the northernmost point in the town reached so far.

A house was hit directly, another first. Eight missiles struck Sderot, two exploding in the town’s main square and its banking center.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the Israeli air force continued to pick off armed Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, with no perceptible effect on their blitz against Israeli civilian locations around the territory’s perimeter. Six missile teams were hit Thursday.

They fire from Gaza’s school buildings, rooftops, playgrounds and underground pits, using civilians and children as human shields.

Efforts are being made to preserve a semblance of normality in those towns and villages in the face of the constant assaults amid persistent questions as to why the IDF is not summoned to battle.

Schools opened Thursday morning for classes, although children were not permitted to play outside.

Studies resumed at the Sapir College along with the registration of students for the next academic year. In the afternoon, students and faculty attended the funeral of the student Ronnie Yihya, who died on campus from a direct missile hit. He was buried at Moshav Bitchah, where he lived with his wife and four children.

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AHMADINEJAD THEOLOGY 101

AHMADINEJAD REVOLUTION GOALS

IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY IDEOLOGY 101

This is the Madness we face in the Islamic Revolution!

We are equally filled with Madness in trying to “Talk” to It!

We do not need Leaders thinking Diplomacy can change its Goals!

February 28, 2008

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Begin Article from MEMRI

The Middle East Media Research Institute

Special Dispatch Series – Number 1854

February 28, 2008

Ahmadinejad in Landmark Address to Iran’s Assembly of Experts: Islamic Revolution, Islamic Republic – Next To Muhammad’s Appointment as Messenger of Allah, Imam Hussain’s Martyrdom

In a special address to Iran’s Assembly of Experts, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad expounded his idea of a perfect society and his views on the Islamic Revolution and Muslim ideology. He stated that the Islamic Revolution and the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran were the “two greatest events of the contemporary history, since they marked the continuation of the path laid before mankind

by the divine Prophets, next to the appointment of Prophet Muhammad as messenger of Allah and the martyrdom of the Prophet’s grandson Imam Hussain.”

Ahmadinejad also said that the Islamic Revolution was “a long leap towards mankind’s reaching the peak of perfection,” and added that the Iranian nation’s mission was to become a model for humanity by living an exemplary and perfect life, based on the only perfect ideology – Muhammad’s Islam.

The following are excerpts from the address, in the original English as published by IRNA:

“The Islamic Revolution and the Islamic Republic of Iran are Both Great Divine Gifts… Awarded to the Entire Mankind”

“Building a model society and introducing the Islamic Revolution are our nation’s missions… The Islamic Revolution and the Islamic Republic of Iran are both great divine gifts, not only awarded to the Iranian nation, but to the entire mankind.

“Yet, we had better say that the Islamic Revolution of Iran and the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran were the greatest events of the contemporary history, since they marked the continuation of the path laid before the mankind by divine Prophets, next to the appointment of Prophet Muhammad as messenger of Allah and the martyrdom of the Prophet’s grandson Imam Hussain.”

“The Islamic Revolution… Was a Long Leap towards Mankind’s Reaching the Peak of Perfection”

“Like those great events, the Islamic Revolution, too, was a long leap towards mankind’s reaching the peak of perfection… The Iranian nation, the practicing Ulema, and the followers of the idea of leadership of the blessed (Wilayah) are shouldering the responsibility of keeping on hoisting the fl

ag of a movement whose nature is the same as the revolutions of divine Prophets.

“The Iranian nation also has two heavy responsibilities, one of which is constructing Iran, since the message of a revolution would be heard and welcomed when it would be accompanied by practical models. Such model making would lead to leading the mankind towards the peak of perfection, and assist the world nations in embracing eternal salvation in the Hereafter, by convincing them that Islam is capable of presenting an ideal model for social life.

“Our culture and our administrative structure must be reshaped rapidly so that their basis would be the divine laws of Islam so that we would be able to claim that we have reached the status of a model society that can be the witness for the entire mankind.”

“The Only Perfect School of Thought That Can Lead Human Society towards Blessed Life in This World and Salvation in the Other World is Mohamedan Islam”

“By grace of God, such a movement began as of the victory of the Islamic Revolution, despite the entire heavy obstacles and hindrances on its way, which have been removed one after the other,

and the movement of the Islamic Revolution aimed at constructing a model society has kept on accelerating ever since then.

“Our nation’s second important mission is introducing the Islamic Revolution to

the entire mankind. Today, the mankind has reached a point of dissatisfaction with the status quo of the social life and is so desperately in pursuit of better lives that the nations’ minds are quite ripe for grasping such truths.

“Based on such presuppositions, the only perfect school of thought that can lead

the human society towards blessed life in this world and salvation in the other world is Mohamedan Islam.

“We need to elaborate the divine rules of this school of thought and present to the world nations a model of social life based on it, while atop those who shoulder this responsibility there are the Ulema who gain the divine thoughts from the origin of divine revelations, or from the Prophet and the Infallible Imams.”

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from which we extracted it.

OBAMA WORRIES MODERATE ARABS!

A Solid Objective Point of View on the Middle East!

Th is

is an Outstanding Assessment by an Arab Journalist

Who has the Best Interests of the Muslim World in His Heart!

Obama from an Arab Prospective that Desires Middle East Peace!

February 28, 2008

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

In all frankness, as far as being able to prevent the biblically prophesied final Middle East war, which would entail bringing peace between Islam and Israel, it does not matter one whit as to who becomes the next U.S. President. And, since choosing between Obama and Clinton is similar to making a selection between a Miracle Man and the Wicked Witch of the West, it is refreshing to read such an article as the one which follows expressing an objective viewpoint. Obama is quite naïve in his plans of how to deal with Islam, particularly since he had an Islamic Father, and was thoroughly exposed to it in his youth. However, he may not be as naïve as it appears on the surface, just clever enough to deceive those who really are naïve enough to be classified as simple.

Proverbs 14:15 – The simple believeth every word: but the prudent man looketh well to his going.

Proverbs 23:3 – Be not desirous of his dainties: for they are deceitful meat.

Proverbs 22:3 – A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.

Begin Daily Star Article

Wake up Arabs, Osama may be a menace

By Hussain Abdul-

Hussain

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

A widespread impression increasingly evident in the Middle East is that the election of the Democratic candidate Barack Obama in the American presidential election will serve the Arabs’ best interests. This is false. Any US president will have to tackle three main issues in the region. According to American priorities, these are Iraq, a nuclear Iran and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. On Iraq, Obama has so far promoted one idea, popular among Americans, though not necessarily wise: He plans to withdraw US troops from the country according to a predetermined timetable, regardless of realities on the ground. Americans have become exhausted with losing lives and treasure. Many Iraqis place “national honor” above anything else. Yet only a few on either the American or the Iraqi side actually support Obama’s rigid withdrawal plan.

In the United States, both supporters of the war and opponents know that a withdrawal from Iraq would harm Iraqis, the region and perhaps the world. American decision-makers, both Republican and Democrat, agree that the US should not “cut and run” and should clean up the Iraqi mess it caused, despite the high cost. As former Secretary of State Colin Powell used to say about countries the US intervened in: You break it, you own it.

A majority of Iraqis, their elected Parliament and Cabinet also oppose a hasty American withdrawal. Realizing the dangerous consequences of a vacuum, Iraqis don’t seem in a hurry to demand an American withdrawal, even if they are not enthusiastic about the US presence in their country.

On Iran, Obama has made it clear that he would reverse the current administration’s policies by sending American officials to negotiate with Tehran over its nuclear program.

But then what

?

President George W. Bush’s administration, despite its often aggressive foreign policy approach, has so far taken a backseat in dealing with Iran, restricting its pressure to diplomacy and sanctions coordinated with the Europeans, Russia and China. Just as it has been unproductive for the US to go to war alone, it would similarly be counterproductive for it to circumvent its partners through unilateral diplomacy.

If Obama talks to Iran alone, he might well end up handing it leverage to turn the international community against each other. As such, Iran’s ayatollahs could inch closer to producing a nuclear weapon, the mere thought of which has so far terrified the Gulf states and their peoples.

In the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Arab rationale favoring Obama’s election has it that since Obama has expressed his willingness to engage in peace talks from his first day in office, this signals good times ahead. Where Obama stands on the issue of borders, on Jerusalem and Palestinian refugees is still unknown and probably undetermined, which makes all Palestinian arguments favoring his election as yet unfounded.

These three issues of importance will also affect two other Middle Eastern challenges: the situation in Lebanon and relations with Syria.

Lebanon, by itself, is not usually an issue of interest to the US or its leaders. The country only took on added importance when used as a demonstration of Bush’s success in spread

ing democracy to the Middle East, an idea which is fading away in Washington. From the perspective of the Lebanese government and parliamentary majority, the Bush administration has been highly supportive of Lebanon. But there have been serious shortcomings. Bush’s critics argue that his administration’s biggest mistake occurred when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stood up to defend extending Israel’s war aga inst Hizbullah

in July 2006.

However, during the same time, Obama cosponsored a Senate resolution opposing Iranian and Syrian involvement in the war, and insisted that Israel should not be pressured into a cease-fire that did not address the threat of Hizbullah’s missiles. So even from a Lebanese viewpoint, there is no reason to believe that Obama would be better than Bush on Israel.

Syria, however, will remain important for the coming administration because of its control over Hizbullah and its meddling in Iraq. Israel is expected to be a driving force in mending Syrian-American relations. According to former Israeli diplomats in Washington, Syrian President Bashar Assad has been more “flexible” in his negotiations with the Israelis than his father and predecessor Hafez ever was.

What stands behind Syrian flexibility is plain. Syria fears international justice through the investigation into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. In order to scale down or remove the mixed Lebanese-international tribunal that will hear the case, and that is now being set up in The Netherlands, Syria has apparently lowered its conditions for peace with Israel. By doing so, and by offering some cooperation on Iraq, Assad appears to be calculating that such steps will make it much more difficult for the international community to pursue his regime for the Hariri murder.

Obama said that once elected, he would engage Syria. Some of his advisers have already gone to Damascus, most recently Zbigniew Brzezinski.

Even though the Syrian regime may soon find itself accused of involvement in the Hariri murder, Obama and his team have not set any preconditions for easing the pressure on Damascus, post-Bush. That is why there is a legitimate fear that if Obama becomes president, the Syrian regime might get a new lease on life, much to the dismay of the many Syrians, but also the Lebanese, who have suffered from its iron grip.

With Iraqis fearing a hasty Obama withdrawal, Palestinians still anxiously waiting to see what concessions a President Obama might compel Israel to offer them, Gulf citizens disturbed about the possibility of a nuclear Iran, the Lebanese fighting to oppose any bargain over the Hariri tribunal, and Syrians wary that their regime might get a new breath of oxygen from Washington, how can Obama’s election be in the interest of the Arabs

?

Arabs should look further than Obama’s second name of Hussein or his family’s Muslim roots. They should beware of his lack of experience in a region where even experts often fail to anticipate what comes next.

Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a journalist based in Washington. He wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.

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