A Preview of Coming Attractions Number 2
July 13, 2006
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
This is a very exciting time for me in Middle East Prophecy. If you did not read “A Preview of Coming Attractions,” which I issued yesterday, along with Archive Prophecy Update Number 74D, please take the time to go back and read it. I promise you will find it very interesting.
Israel is currently letting Lebanon know that nothing is sacred in their entire country, and is attacking some sites north of where Hizbollah is headquartered in the south. It is also letting Syria know Syrian sites are not immune to attacks by the IAF, and that the Hizbollah zone in southern Lebanon will be invaded by the IDF as well as being plastered with air strikes by the IAF.
A special observer from Iran has been rushed to Damascus since Syria and Iran recently signed a mutual defense pact. So all the time that the current Israeli military activity is being carried out in the north, the Syrian and Iran Military Intelligence is actively watching and recording everything Israel is doing.
This intelligence will be used when 10 Arab nations do eventually gain enough strength to be successful in an all out war.
They are at least two to six years away from being able to attack Israel with any hope of success. If the 10 toes of Daniel’s statue were to attack Israel now, they would be easily defeated. Islam needs two things to defeat Israel, a large well coordinated military force and the element of surprise.
What is happening now in the northern border action by Israel against Hizbollah is setting the stage for the Jihad by 10 Arab nations against Israel, which I guesstimate is likely to begin at a point in time between 2008 and 2012. The Israelis will go hot and heavy against Hizbollah for awhile until they have destroyed Hizbollah military installations and taken a toll of their population. The international community will yell their disapproval. Iran and Syria will watch the action, but will not try to start a war with Israel, because they simply are not militarily ready at this time.
However, they will gain a wealth of information for a time when they will be ready, and I guesstimate they will be ready at some point in time between 2008 and 2012.
Once Israel has seemingly decapitated Hizbollah, they will withdraw, and eventually Israel’s enemies will rebuild in southern Lebanon. All this is setting the stage for the same scenario to be played again when Iran and Syria are ready to attack Israel.
Iran and Syria will not attack Israel as long as American troops are in Iraq. The presidential election will see some of our troops out of Iraq, and all will be out at some point in time between 2008 and 2012. If you think that Iraq is going to love us for the opportunity we gave them to be free under a democracy, then I have a collector’s three dollar bill I would like to sell you for a million dollars. They will hate us even more than they did under Saddam Hussein, and will be a full fledged partner with Syria and Iran when the Jihad is launched against Israel. And, if you think we are going to rush our troops back over there again, after just having pulled them out, then I also have a collectors four dollar bill I will sell you for a second million dollars.
Time after time Israel has had to go into Lebanon to clean up terrorist infested areas, and each time they have been successful. It is a pattern that is well established. Israel has extreme confidence it will always be the same, and she has no fear of being defeated by the Arabs in a war, because she has won ever war since 1948, but the next war she
will lose. The next time that the same scenario occurs, the forces of Islam will be ready for war and, when Israel heads north into Lebanon to punish the enemy in Lebanon, they will find a huge consolidated force waiting for them in the southern half of Syria, and that force will drive them south into the Negev wilderness. The international community, by and large, will jump on the Arab bandwagon, because they will say the Arabs are justified since Israel attacked Lebanon.
Revelation 12:6 – And the woman fled into the wilderness, where she hath a place prepared of God, that they should feed her there a thousand two hundred and threescore days.
Zechariah 13:8,9 – And it shall come to pass, that in all the land, saith the Lord, two parts therein shall be cut off and die; but the third shall be left therein. [9] And I will bring the third part through the fire, and will refine them as silver is refined, and will try them as gold is tried: they shall call on my name, and I will hear them: I will say, It is my people: and they shall say, The Lord is my God.
Begin DEBKAfile Reports Article
Activation of the Hamas-Hizbollah-Syria-Iran Link in the South and North
DEBKAfile reports: Iran’s national security adviser Ali Larijani flies to Damascus aboad special military plane Wednesday night as war tension builds up around Hizballah kidnap of 2 Israeli soldiers
July 12, 2006, 10:14 PM (GMT+02:00)
Larijani is also Iran’s senior nuclear negotiator.
He will remain in Damascus for the duration of the crisis in line with the recently Iranian-Syrian mutual defense pact. His presence affirms that an Israeli attack on Syria will be deemed an assault on Iran. It also links the Israeli hostage crisis to Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West.
The White House released a statement holding Syria and Iran responsible for Hizballah abduction and demanding their immediate and unconditional release. The Syrian army has been put on a state of preparedness.
DEBKAfile’s military sources add that the Iranian air force, missile units and navy are also on high alert.
DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources report Hizballah acted on orders from Tehran to open a second front against Israel, partly to ease IDF military pressure on the Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This was in response to an appeal Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal made to the Iranian ambassador to Damascus Mohammad Hassan Akhtari Sunday, July 9.
DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources report Tehran’s rationale as composed of three parts: 1. Iran shows the flag as a champion and defender of its ally, Hamas. 2. Sending Hizballah to open a warfront against Israel is the logical tactical complement to its latest order to go into action against American and British forces in southern Iraq. 3. Tehran hopes to hijack the agenda before the G-8 summit opening in St. Petersberg, Russia on July 15. Instead of discussing Iran’s nuclear case and the situation in Iraq along the lines set by President George W. Bush, the leaders of the industrial nations will be forced to address the Middle East flare-up Any Israeli decision taken at prime minister Ehud Olmert’s high level consultation in Jerusalem Wednesday night must take this turn of events into account before deciding on limited air strikes against Hizballah and Lebanese civil targets without delay. Our sources also report that immediately after Nasrallah’s statement to the media, Hizballah’s leaders went into hiding, their bases were evacuated and their fighting strength transferred to pre-planned places of concealment. Ahead of the abduction, Hizballah ordnance and missile stocks were transferred to the Palestinian Ahmed Jibril’s tunnel system at Naama, 30 km south of Beirut, which was built in the 1980s by East German engineers. The Israel navy has long tried to smash this coastal underground fortress from the sea without success. Israel began calling up an armored division, air crews and technicians from the reserves Wednesday night.
DEBKAfile’s military experts: If Israel’s leaders opt for an anti-Hizballah operation on the lines of Operation Summer Rain against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the IDF can expect the same measure of success as it has had in recovering Gilead Shalit and ending the Qassam missiles barrage
Begin Jerusalem Post Article
Comment: An Opportunity to Restore Deterrence
Efraim Inbar, THE JERUSALEM POST
July 13, 2006
The artillery barrage by Hizbullah on Israeli villages along the Lebanese border, and the killings and kidnapping of IDF soldiers there, come as no surprise. Military Intelligence has warned about such a scenario time and again. Nevertheless, Wednesday saw a military fiasco, coming just two weeks after the attack at Kerem Shalom on the Gaza border and compounding the problems of grappling with the chaos there.
Israel seems to be caught in a war – albeit a limited one – on two fronts. This has already required a partial mobilization of the reserve force. The relatively new government headed by Ehud Olmert, which includes the inexperienced Defense Minister Amir Peretz, faces its first serious challenge.
The option of a prisoners’ swap has become untenable politically. This government is unlikely to give in to the demands of Hamas and Hizbullah because much more is at stake than the lives of three soldiers.
Beyond the importance Olmert and Peretz attach to their political careers, they understand that Israel must restore a modicum of deterrence and its ability to secure some tranquility for its citizens living along the borders.
ndeed, the kidnapping of the soldiers provides the trigger to deal with larger strategic issues. In Gaza, it is the Kassam rockets, and in Lebanon, it is Hizbullah’s missile arsenal that pose serious threats to a large part of the country.
For some time, the defense establishment has considered the Hizbullah armaments an important enough target to justify preemptive action. Therefore, the removal of the missile threat and the perceived strategic parity that has constrained Israel’s reaction to past Hizbullah provocations must be the primary goal of an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon.
Eliminating the Hizbullah missile threat will allow greater freedom of action against Syria and Iran. The “search and destroy” mode of operation required for capturing and/or destroying the missiles hidden in numerous locations necessitates the use of ground forces. But, of course, even their cautious employment under an aerial umbrella might be costly.
To a large extent the success of Israeli actions in Lebanon will be measured by the counting of casualties.
Israel may well capitalize on its missile hunt in Lebanon to expand the goal of the operations. Israeli threats to seriously punish Hizbullah probably mean targeting its leadership. A “gloves off” policy to decapitate Hizbullah could paralyze this terrorist organization for several years. This would clearly signal Israel’s determination to deal with terrorist threats and with Iranian proxies.
A further expansion of goals concerns Syria – the channel for Iranian support to Hizbullah. Damascus still hosts the headquarters of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, despite promising the Americans a few years ago to close their offices.
Israel may enjoy much freedom of action versus Syria because Syria frustrated the American and French attempts to limit it’s influence in Lebanon in their quest to restore Lebanon’s independence. Washington, in particular, may relish military pressure on a Bashar Assad regime that allows infiltration of insurgents into Iraq from its territory.
Syrian targets could be attacked by an Israel Air Force that could easily suppress the Syrian air defenses and acquire aerial supremacy.
Israel may also decide the time is ripe for attacking the Syrian long-range missile infrastructure, whose threat hovers over most of Israel.
Escalation has often been the Israeli response to the wars of attrition waged by its enemies. A successful Israeli military operation in Lebanon and in Syria would have many ripple effects in the region.
Radicals advocating terror against militarily superior powers could be constrained. The Palestinians might pay attention and calibrate their goals accordingly.
Perhaps most important would be the impact on a nuclear-aspirant Iran that seems to believe that it can defy a modern military force. It has been some time since Israel had a resounding military success. Hizbullah may have provided the opportunity, and hopefully the IDF can meet the challenge.
The writer is professor of political science at Bar-Ilan University and director of the Begin-Sadat (BESA) Center for Strategic Studies.
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