Archive for November, 2011

It is Very Important to Know Rapture and Second Advent Differences – Part 1

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

It is Important to Know Rapture and 2nd Advent Differences!

There Will Soon be a Time of Trouble like Man has Never Known,

Followed by a brightness of his coming to end wars for 1000 Years,

Then comes a 2nd last great war of Gog & Magog against His People,

That will then be Followed by

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November 30, 2011

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Part 1

The iron and clay toes of Daniel know they are too disorganized to win a war with so little ability to bond together in 2011 or 2012.  They simply cannot drive Israel into the Negev at the present time, and they know it.  I believe the earliest they could

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be organized enough to do it would be 2013 and the latest would be 2015.

What follows is a detailed chronological sequence of the events from the beginning of the initial war to the Second Advent of Christ.  This will be a 5 or 6 Part Series.

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During the past 63 years every major conflict, which has suddenly erupted in the Middle East and its environs, has caused countless numbers of men and women to suddenly become intermittently religious, and to flock back to local churches in droves.   One reason it has been happening is a basic misunderstanding of the 2 comings of Christ.  Many who rush back into a better relationship with Christ every time it looks like a major conflict is about to begin between Islam and Israelis and assume the conflict will be a continuous battle, eventually ending in the battle of Armageddon. Some confuse the return of Christ FOR the saved (The Raptures with when Christ comes WITH the saved, which is called the Second Advent.  However, there is a coming of Christ FOR the saved, which occurs before the Lord’s Second Advent.  And there will be a Hudna (truce) declared between  Israel and Islam that will hold for more than three years, during the time Israel is trapped in the Negev.  It will be a time of “Pease and safety” for Israel without internal terrorist activity or missiles launched in on her.  Antichrist will use the 3+ years of a peaceful truce with Negev Israel to form and establish a Caliphate from Morocco to Pakistan, with its capital at Cairo.  Some 2 months before the Caliph Antichrist breaks the 3+ year truce with Israel.   He will call all the many nations of his own Caliphate, along with Russia, China, and the Old World to come to the final battle of Armageddon, for the purpose of wiping out all Jews in the Negev Wilderness. This is when the fulfillment of I Thessalonians 5:3-9 will occur,

I Thessalonians 5:3-9 – For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape.

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[4] But ye, brethren, are not in darkness, that that day should overtake you as a thief. [5] Ye are all the children of light, and the children of the day: we are not of the night, nor of darkness. [6] Therefore let us not sleep, as do others; but let us watch and be sober. [7] For they that sleep sleep in the night; and they that be drunken are drunken in the night. [8] But let us, who are of the day, be sober, putting on the breastplate of faith and love; and for an helmet, the hope of salvation. [9] For God hath not appointed us to wrath, but to obtain salvation by our Lord Jesus Christ,

7 RAPTURE SCRIPTURES – CATCHING OUT OF THE SAVED IN THE AIR AND THEIR JUDGMENT FOR REWARDS, OR LACK OF THEM IN HEAVEN, WHILE THOSE ON EARTH ARE EXPERIENCING 7 VIALS OF WRATH 

The precise time of the catching out Rapture of the saved at this time is unknown except that it will occur on the sounding of the seventh trumpet.

I Corinthians 15:52 – In a moment, in the twinkling of an eye, at the last trump: for the trumpet shall sound, and the dead shall be raised incorruptible, and we shall be changed.

I Thessalonians 4:16,17 –  For the Lord himself shall descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of the archangel, and with the trump of God: and the dead in Christ shall rise first: [17] Then we which are alive and remain shall be caught up together with them in the clouds, to meet the Lord in the air: and so shall we ever be with the Lord.

I Corinthians 15:51 – Behold, I shew you a mystery; We shall not all sleep, but we shall all be changed,

Revelation 10:7 – But in the days of the voice of the seventh angel, when he shall begin to sound, the mystery of God should be finished, as he hath declared to his servants the prophets.   

Revelation 11:15 – And the seventh angel sounded; and there were great voices in heaven, saying, The kingdoms of this world are become the kingdoms of our Lord, and of his Christ; and he shall reign for ever and ever.

Revelation 11:18 –     And the nations were angry, and thy wrath is come, and the time of the dead, that they should be judged, and that thou shouldest give reward unto thy servants the prophets, and to the saints, and them that fear thy name, small and great; and shouldest destroy them which destroy

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the earth.

I Thessalonians 5:9-11 – For God hath not appointed us to wrath, but to obtain salvation by our Lord Jesus Christ, [10] Who died for us, that, whether we wake or sleep, we should live together with him. [11] Wherefore comfort yourselves together, and edify one another, even as also ye do.

Revelation 14:13-16 – And I heard a voice from heaven saying unto me, Write, Blessed are the dead which die in the Lord from henceforth: Yea, saith the Spirit, that they may rest from their labours; and their works do follow them.   [14] And I looked, and behold a white cloud, and upon the cloud one sat like unto the Son of man, having on his head a golden crown, and in his hand a sharp sickle. [15] And another angel came out of the temple, crying with a loud voice to him that sat on the cloud, Thrust in thy sickle, and reap: for the time is come for thee to reap; for the harvest of the earth is ripe.

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[16] And he that sat on the cloud thrust in his sickle on the earth; and the earth was reaped.

2nd ADVENT SCRIPTURES – CHRIST ENDS WRATH AT ARMAGEDDON AS HE RETURNS TO EARTH WITH THE SAVED HE JUDGED WHILE  7 VIALS OF WRATH WERE BEING POURED ON THOSE LEFT ON EARTH AT THE RAPTURE   

The precise time of the Second Advent of Christ at this time is unknown except that it will occur when He comes to end the final Battle of Armageddon. 

Luke 21:25-28 – And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, with perplexity; the sea and the waves roaring; [26] Men’s hearts failing them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth: for the powers of heaven shall be shaken. [27] And then shall they see the Son of man coming in a cloud with power and great glory. [28] And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh.

Revelation 14:17-20 –  And another angel came out of the temple which is in heaven, he also hav

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ing a sharp sickle. [18] And another angel came out from the altar, which had power over fire; and cried with a loud cry to him that had the sharp sickle, saying, Thrust in thy sharp sickle, and gather the clusters of the vine of the earth; for her grapes are fully ripe. [19] And the angel thrust in his sickle into the earth, and gathered the vine of the earth, and cast it into the great winepress of the wrath of God.

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[20] And the winepress was trodden without the city, and blood came out of the winepress, even unto the horse bridles, by the space of a thousand and six hundred furlongs.

Revelation 1:7 – Behold, he cometh with clouds; and every eye shall see him, and they also which pierced him: and all kindreds of the earth shall wail because

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Even so, Amen.

Zechariah 12:10 – And I will pour upon the house of David, and upon the inhabitants of Jerusalem, the spirit of grace and of supplications: and they shall look upon me whom they have pierced, and they shall mourn for him, as one mourneth for his only son, and shall be in bitterness for him, as one that is in bitterness for his firstborn.

If I believed that the Second Advent and the catching out of the saved were the same event, then I also would think that, each time a conflict broke out in the Middle East area, it might continue until it ended with the Battle of Armageddon.  However, we find that, after the blowing of the seventh trump in the Book of Revelation, there is a massive heavenly judgment for rewards being ministered to all types of believers from all ages, and we also discover that, at this time of pre-advent judgment, we are still in heaven four chapters, and six vials away from Armageddon.

Revelation 11:15,18 – And the seventh angel sounded; and there were great voices in heaven, saying, The kingdoms of this world are become the kingdoms of our Lord, and of his Christ; and he shall reign for ever and ever. [18] And the nations were angry, and thy wrath is come, and the time of the dead, that they should be judged, and that thou shouldest give reward unto thy servants the prophets, and to the saints, and them that fear thy name, small and great; and shouldest destroy them which destroy the earth.

Revelation 16:16 – And he gathered them together into a place called in the Hebrew tongue Armageddon.

II Corinthians 5:10 – For we must all appear before the judgment seat of Christ; that every one may receive the things done in his body, according to that he hath done, whether it be good or bad.

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So, if God’s prophets, saints, and those that fear his name, are in heaven being judged by God for rewards, then they had to be “caught out” by Christ before the Battle of Armageddon, which occurs when

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the last of seven vials is poured out.

Revelation 16:16-18 – And he gathered them together into a place called in the Hebrew tongue Armageddon. [17] And the seventh angel poured out his vial into the air; and there came a great voice out of the temple of heaven, from the throne, saying, It is done. [18] And there were voices, and thunders, and lightnings; and there was a great earthquake, such as was not since men were upon the earth, so mighty an earthquake, and so great.

Therefore, the following Scriptures refer, not to the Second Advent, but to a “catching out” that occurred earlier, and which is described in the following Scriptures:

I Corinthians 15:51,52 – Behold, I shew you a mystery; We shall not all sleep, but we shall all be changed, [52] In a moment, in the twinkling of an eye, at the last trump: for the trumpet shall sound, and the dead shall be raised incorruptible, and we shall be changed.

 I Thessalonians 4:16-18 – For the Lord himself shall descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of the archangel, and with the trump of God: and the dead in Christ shall rise first: [17] Then we which are alive and remain shall be caught up together with them in the clouds, to meet the Lord in the air: and so shall we ever be with the Lord. [18] Wherefore comfort one another with these words.

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So why have I gone to all this trouble to establish there are two comings of Christ between now and the beginning of His Millennial Reign?  Because there MUST be, BEFORE He comes at his Second Advent,  a period of what seems, to the world and Israel, to be a genuine  lull in fighting which give Israel hope for peace.  Before Christ came for all of the saved two things had to happen:

1. Israel had to return to become a real, physically alive, nation  (Ezekiel 37).  That has happened! 

2. There would have to be, what seemed to be, a genuine lull in the fighting with the nations around Israel, which gives Israel a false hope of peace.  This should occur when a hudna (truce) is declared after Islam drives Israel into a Negev Wilderness,  where the Jews would remain in relative peace and security for more than 3 years, under a nuclear umbrella of friendly nations directed by the hand of God.  Those “NATIONS” represent the “THEY” in Revelation 12:6.  I think they will be nations like the U. S, Canada, and England.

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Revelation 12:6 – And the woman fled into the wilderness, where she hath a place prepared of God, that THEY should feed her there a thousand two hundred and threescore days.

I Thessalonians 5:3,4 – For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape.

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[4] But ye, brethren, are not in darkness, that that day should overtake you as a thief.

Near the sounding of the seventh trump, which I believe is the time of the catching out of the saved, the Islamic Antichrist will break the Hudna (truce) and attack the Nation of Israel in the Negev Wilderness. This is when no one can help Antichrist, because it is when Michael stands up for Israel, and when God pours out his wrath on those left behind on the sounding of  Paul’s last trumpet, which is the same as John’s seventh trumpet.  The Israelites will have dug deep home chambers with thick doors to shelter themselves from

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the wrath coming on the earth as well as the chaos of the final battle of Armageddon.

Daniel 11:45 to 12:1 – And he shall plant the tabernacles of his palace between the seas in the glorious holy mountain; yet he shall come to his end, and none shall help him.  [12] And at that time shall Michael stand up, the great prince which standeth for the children of thy people: and there shall be a time of trouble, such as never was since there was a nation even to that same time: and at that time thy people shall be delivered, every one that shall be found written in the book.

Isaiah 26:20 to 27:1 –  Come, my people, enter thou into thy chambers, and shut thy doors about thee: hide thyself as it were for a little moment, until the indignation be overpast. [21] For, behold, the Lord cometh out of his place to punish the inhabitants of the earth for their iniquity: the earth also shall disclose her blood, and shall no more cover her slain.  [1] In that day the Lord with his sore and great and strong sword shall punish leviathan the piercing serpent, even leviathan that crooked serpent; and he shall slay the dragon that is in the sea.

Revelation 19:19-21 – And I saw the beast, and the kings of the earth, and their armies, gathered together to make war against him that sat on the horse, and against his army. [20] And the beast was taken, and with him the false prophet that wrought miracles before him, with which he deceived them that had received the mark of the beast, and them that worshipped his image. These both were cast alive into a lake of fire burning with brimstone. [21] And the remnant were slain with the sword of him that sat upon the horse, which sword proceeded out of his mouth: and all the fowls were filled with their flesh.

The Muslim Brotherhood is Labeled as Moderate, BUT ……….

Tuesday, November 29th, 2011

The Muslim Brotherhood

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Is Labeled as Representing Moderate Muslims,

But they Stalk their Prey from tall grass as Internal Beasts of the Devil,

Patiently taking time before Satisfying Inner Ravening for Jewish Blood

When the Antichrist attempts to completely destroy them in the Negev

November 29, 2011

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Psalm 22:11-13 – Be not far from me; for trouble is near; for there is none to help.

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[12] Many bulls have compassed me: strong bulls of Bashan have beset me round. [13] They gaped upon me with their mouths, as a ravening and a roaring lion.

Ezekiel 22:25 – There is a conspiracy of her prophets in the midst thereof, like a roaring lion ravening the prey; they have devoured souls; they have taken the treasure and precious things; they have made her many widows in the midst thereof.

Matthew 23:25 – Woe unto you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! for ye make clean the outside of the cup and of the platter, but within they are full of extortion and excess.

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Ezekiel 22:27,28 – Her princes in the midst thereof are like wolves ravening the prey, to shed blood, and to destroy souls, to get dishonest gain. [28] And her prophets have daubed them with untempered morter, seeing vanity, and divining lies unto them, saying, Thus saith the Lord God, when the Lord hath not spoken.

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I Peter 5:8,9 – Be sober, be vigilant; because your adversary the devil, as a roaring lion, walketh about, seeking whom he may devour: [9] Whom resist stedfast in the faith, knowing that the same afflictions are accomplished in your brethren that are in the world.

II Thessalonians 2:11,12 – And for this cause God shall send them strong delusion, that they should believe a lie: [12] That they all might be damned who believed not the truth, but had pleasure in unrighteousness.

Begin Excerpt 1 from THE JERUSULAM POST

Muslim Brotherhood rally vows to ‘kill all Jews’

By OREN KESSLER

11/27/2011 02:15

Organizers at Cairo’s iconic al-Azhar Mosque warn against “Judaization of Jerusalem.”
A Muslim Brotherhood rally in Cairo on Friday at the Sunni world’s most prestigious center of learning turned into a call for genocide, with protesters pledging to “one day kill all Jews.”

Eldad Beck, Ynet’s Arab affairs correspondent, reported from Cairo that some 5,000 people attended the rally at al-Azhar Mosque, convened to coincide with the anniversary of the approval of the 1947 UN Partition Plan for Palestine.

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The event, organizers said, was aimed at rallying Egyptians behind the “battle against Jerusalem’s Judaization.”

Speakers at the demonstration condemned “Zionist occupiers” and “treacherous Jews,” and organizers distributed maps of the Old City highlighting areas where “Zionists are aiming to change Jerusalem’s Muslim character.”

Muhammad Ahmed el- Tayeb, the imam of al-Azhar Mosque, told the crowd: “Al- Aksa Mosque is currently under an offensive by the Jews… We shall not allow the Zionists to Judaize al-Quds [Jerusalem]. We are telling Israel and Europe that we shall not allow even one stone to be moved there.”

Protesters chanted, “Tel Aviv, Tel Aviv: Judgment Day has come,” and passages from the Koran vowing that “one day we shall kill all the Jews.”

Al-Azhar Mosque is part of al-Azhar University, a millennium- old compound in central Cairo that is the world’s leading center of Arabic literature and Sunni jurisprudence.

Beck quoted an elementary school teacher outside the mosque telling him, “All Egyptian Muslims are willing to embark on jihad for the sake of Palestine.”

“Why is the US losing in Afghanistan?” he asked.

“Because the other side is willing and wants to die. We have a different mentality than that of the Americans and Jews.”

Meanwhile, late last week, Egypt’s Youm7 newsweekly reported that the Brotherhood’s spiritual leader, Yusuf al-Qaradawi, had returned to Cairo for the first time since his dramatic return in February from a half-century in exile.

The immensely popular television preacher arrived at Cairo Airport on Wednesday “to follow the incidents in Tahrir Square,

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Qaradawi hosts the weekly program Shari’a and Life on Al Jazeera.

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Exiled from Egypt in 1961, he has since resided in the Persian Gulf emirate of Qatar.

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Following February’s ouster of President Hosni Mubarak, Qaradawi made a triumphant return to Tahrir, where he led at least 200,000 Egyptians in mass prayer.

The 85-year-old is hailed by supporters as an engaging and telegenic preacher, and vilified by critics for his often venomous attacks on Americans, Shi’ites and Jews.

Qaradawi has been described as the spiritual leader of Hamas, and has justified suicide bombings against Israeli civilians and against US soldiers serving in Iraq.

Marc Ginsberg – the former US ambassador to Morocco and a top Middle East adviser during Jimmy Carter’s presidency – wrote an op-ed last week highlighting what he sees as an “unholy alliance” between the Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt’s ruling military council.

“The Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) met secretly with representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist-oriented political movements last April to establish local political ‘action committee’ bank accounts,” he wrote on the Huffington Post website, citing a “reliable European military intelligence source.”

The payouts in question could amount to millions of dollars, Ginsberg wrote.

“The SCAF’s surreptitious political maneuvering favoring Islamists over more secular political movements is based on one simple equation,” he wrote. “The military is determined to prevent secularists from gaining a parliamentary majority which would likely impair its insatiable appetite for controlling Egypt’s national budget and its own extensive business operations.

“It is determined to prevent a civilian government from interfering with its cherished prerogatives.”

Begin Excerpt 2 from THE JERUSALEM POST via REUTERS

Analysis: Islamists strong ahead of Egypt poll

By REUTERS

11/26/2011 20:17

Muslim Brotherhood is seen as able to mobilize voters despite ongoing violence; unrest has made organizing harder for new parties.

CAIRO – The Muslim Brotherhood goes into Egypt’s first free election in living memory with a strong hand enhanced by recent unrest. Well-organized, the Islamists will be able to get out their vote, even if fears of violence hit the overall turnout.

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By far the best-drilled group in the country, the Islamists were in a good position even before the latest unrest triggered by protests against the military rulers who assumed power after Hosni Mubarak was overthrown in February.

RELATED:

‘Egyptian PM asks protesters for 2 months’

Thousands rally in Egypt on ‘last chance Friday’

Since then, dozens of new parties have struggled to make an impact in a country whose political life was systematically crushed by Mubarak. The only group to survive the oppression, the Brotherhood enjoys name recognition the newcomers lack.

Now, with Egyptians distracted by the battle of wills in the street, the Islamists could exceed their own expectations in the first of three rounds of voting which the generals say will begin as scheduled on Monday.

“The Islamists are the only groups that are organized and can mobilize their followers,” said Nirvana Shawky, a member of the Freedom Egypt Party, a reformist group set up this year.

“With this level of fear, it’s expected that the only ones who will be able to mobilize the people are the Islamists,” she said, making her way to join protests against the military council at Cairo’s Tahrir Square.

Unrest set off by the latest wave of protests has resulted in 42 deaths in the last week, the worst spasm of violence since Mubarak was removed from power.

Some Egyptians believe the election should be delayed to guarantee security and to give more time for campaigning disrupted by the turmoil.

The military council, however, is determined to press ahead with the first stage of voting in a newly readjusted timetable to restore power to a civilian government by mid-2012.

Expediency and principles

Contesting the vote under the banner of its political wing, the Freedom and Justice Party, the Brotherhood has demanded that elections go ahead on time.

Its refusal to back the latest protests by revolutionary groups has exposed it to charges of putting political expediency ahead of principles.

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That is sharply at odds with how the group was perceived during Mubarak’s era, when the Brotherhood was one of the few groups that openly spoke out against his rule.

It was the only party that seriously challenged Mubarak’s National Democratic Party at the polls, mobilizing a dedicated support base that would brave beatings and tear gas to vote.

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What share of the vote the Brotherhood might win in a free and fair election is a matter of debate. Brotherhood leaders have previously forecast the group could win up to 30 percent.

The group’s best performance at the polls under Mubarak was in 2005, when it emerged with 20 percent of the seats having only campaigned for a third of those up for grabs.

The election was far from perfect, but two out of three rounds of voting took place in relatively free conditions. The Brotherhood leader who oversaw that campaign has said around 2.8 million people voted for the group in 2005.

Turnout this time had been expected to be at least 30 million of Egypt’s 50 million eligible voters. Now, with the shadow of this week’s violence hanging over the voting, it is anyone’s guess.

“If the elections happen, the turnout will be 30 or 40 percent,” Hesham Gabr, a protester in Tahrir, predicted. “People are afraid. It only suits the Brotherhood.”

The Brotherhood’s success will, in part, be a consequence of the absence of other strong parties.

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“It was definitely mission impossible,” said Mohammed el-Garhy, another Freedom Egypt Party member, describing the challenge of trying to build a party in a few months.

He noted that the atmosphere of crisis hanging over Egypt has further weakened the position of the newcomers, saying: “I don’t think it’s the right time to talk about parties or even ideologies … The parties lost, and this is a sad thing.”

Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center, said the Brotherhood would dominate whatever the turnout, likely winning between 35 percent or 50 percent of the vote.

“If there is lower turnout, that puts the Muslim Brotherhood in at least a slightly stronger position because they can guarantee their own internal turnout,” he said.

“They may even benefit from higher turnout, where a lot of ordinary Egyptians are going to the polls saying, ‘We don’t know who to vote for, but we’ve heard about the Muslim Brotherhood.

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US and Russian Nuclear Umbrellas Established in Middle East.

Sunday, November 27th, 2011

US and RUSSIAN Nuclear Umbrella s

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Established in Middle East!

November 28, 2011

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

In 2007 I believed it unlikely the forces in the Middle East would be able to enter into a major war prior to 2010, and the most likely time for it to begin lay between 2013 and 2015. I do not believe it will occur this year or in 2012.

I have seen nothing to make me change my mind the most likely time for a major war to begin between Islamists and Israelis lies between 2013 and 2015.

Daniel 11:40 describes the time of the end events that will be associated with the war which I believe likely to begin at a point at some point in time between 2013 & 2015.

Daniel 11:40 – And AT THE TIME OF THE END shall the king of the south push at him: and the king of the north shall come against him like a whirlwind, with chariots, and with horsemen, AND WITH MANY SHIPS; and he shall enter into the countries, and shall overflow and pass over.

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Begin Archive Blog Excerpt Issued December 6, 2007

Return to the Cold War to Prepare for a Future Hot War!

December 6, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

It seems that the opponents of the Free World have decided to “lay back” for awhile and prepare for a major future war. I think they are finally coming to realize they cannot possibly defeat Israel until they have a much great greater strength level than they now possess. It will be interesting to watch for signs of such actions at all levels.

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The two articles which follow lend some credence this opinion. I believe we are entering into an era of false “peace and safety.” It will be necessary for the enemies of Israel to have a better trained military structure around Israel on land and sea than they now have in place.

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I believe this action is now being implemented, but is unlikely to reach a sufficient level of attainment before 2010.

As I stated in the last blog, “I believe we are going to experience a few years where Russia, China, all the Islamic nations, the United States, Europe, Israel, and the terrorists are all preparing for war.”

It will be a return to the Cold War tactics of threat and counter threat for several years, but this time it will eventually turn into a Middle East hot war, which will culminate at Armageddon.

Numbers 24:23,24 – And he took up his parable, and said, Alas, who shall live when God doeth this! [24] AND SHIPS SHALL COME from the coast of Chittim, and shall afflict Asshur, and shall afflict Eber, and he also shall perish for ever.

Begin Jerusalem Post Article 1

DEBKAfile Reports: Russia launches first naval power build-up in the Mediterranean in response to the US about-face on Iran

December 5, 2007, 9:19 PM (GMT+02:00)

President Vladimir Putin and defense minister Anatoly Serdyukov decided to send a sortie of six Russian warships, led by the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier and the Moskva guided missile cruiser, to the Mediterranean. This will be the first prolonged stay of a Russian carrier to the eastern Mediterranean vicinity of Israel’s shores and waters patrolled by the US Sixth Fleet. On its decks are 47 warplanes and 10 helicopters.

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The Moskva is the Russian Navy’s Black Sea flagship.

According to our Moscow sources, the Kremlin is determined not to be left lagging behind the new Bush administration’s steps towards an accommodation with Iran, which were signaled by the US National Intelligence Estimate absolving Tehran of running a military nuclear program from 2003.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the Russian fleet, which has already set out for its new mission from the North and Black Seas, will have the use of naval facilities at Syria’s Tartous port.

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Its presence for several months will be a complication for the Israel navy’s operations opposite the Lebanese and Syrian coasts, especially if the Russians are joined at Tartous by Iranian submarines or warships.

The Kremlin also decided to send a sortie of ships

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Begin Jerusalem Post Excerpt 2

‘Al Quds’: Gaza groups weigh cease-fire

JPost.com Staff, THE JERUSALEM POST

December 8, 2007

Fears of an IDF incursion into Gaza have prompted top officials from Palestinian factions to hold a series of intensive meetings in Damascus and the Strip aimed at reaching a ceasefire with Israel, Al-Quds al-Arabi reported on Saturday.

According to the London-based newspaper, Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal discussed the possibility of a cease-fire with Islamic Jihad head Ramadan Shalah in Damascus. In addition, Hamas officials from Gaza and Damascus met military leaders from Islamic Jihad, the Popular Resistance Committees (PRC) and Al Aksa Martyrs Brigades in order to draft a ceasefire according to which rocket fire would be stopped in exchange for the IDF steering clear of the Gaza Strip.

Islamic Jihad sources told the newspaper that the group had welcomed the Hamas proposal, however, it conditioned the offer on Israel also stopping its mortar-shell fire and targeted assassinations.

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Al-Quds noted

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that the Egyptian government expressed willingness to mediate between Israel and the Palestinian factions.

The sources added that Shalah visited Qatar on Wednesday in an effort to clarify to the Arab world the tragic consequences of an Israeli invasion of Gaza.

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In addition, the newspaper quoted Palestinian sources as saying that al-Qaida had begun to operate extensively in the Gaza Strip and in areas of the West Bank. According to the sources, several members of Hamas’s military wing had joined al-Qaida-inspired terror cells.

Begin Excerpt 3 from DEBKAfile Special Report

US carrier strike force enters Syrian waters. Russian carrier en route

DEBKAfile Special Report

November 26, 2011, 11:33 AM (GMT+02:00)

The Syrian crisis aassumed a big power dimension this week with the build-up of rival United States and Russia naval air carrier armadas in Syrian waters, DEBKAfile’s military sources report.

The USS George H.W. Bush arrived Wednesday, Nov. 23, in the wake of the three Russian warships anchored earlier opposite Tartus which established a command post in the Syrian port. They will be augmented by Russia’s only air carrier the Admiral Kuznetsov, which is due in mid-week.

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By deploying 70 ship-borne fighter-bombers plus three heavy guided missile cruisers and five guided missile destroyers opposite Syria, Washington has laid down military support for any intervention the Arab League in conjunction with Turkey may decide on.

Bashar Assad can see for himself that Washington has hoisted a nuclear aerial umbrella to protect its allies, Israel, Turkey, and Jordan, against the retaliation his armed forces high command pledged Friday for the deaths of six Syrian air force elite pilots in an ambush Thursday.

For some time, Ankara has been weighing the creation of a protected haven for rebels and refugees inside Syria. France has proposed slicing “humanitarian corridors” through Syria for them to flee safely from military tank and gunfire and secure supply of food, medicines and other essential supplies to the cities under army siege.

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Both plans would depend on being safeguarded by substantial ground and air strength inside Syria which would certainly face fierce resistance from Assad’s military.

The Arab League has scheduled weekend meetings to decide how to proceed after Damascus ignored its Friday deadline for accepting hundreds of monitors. Saturday, Nov. 26, AL finance ministers will discuss economic sanctions.

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In the past 48 hours, at least 70 people were reported killed as the Syrian army continued its crackdown in the face of spreading armed opposition.

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The Russian Kuznetzov carrier and its accompanying strike vessels will join the three Russian warships parked opposite Tartus for more than a week.

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It will enter the same Syrian offshore waters as the USS Bush and the US Sixth Fleet, which is permanently posted in the Mediterranean.

The Syrian crisis is therefore building up to a superpower face-off unparalleled since the Cold War between America and the Soviet Union ended in the nineties, DEBKAfile’s military sources note.

While Washington clearly stands ready to back operations against the Assad regime, Moscow is drawing a red line around his presidential palace in Damascus. The Kremlin is warning the US, NATO and

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the Arab League that they will not be allowed to repeat their feat in Libya of overthrowing Muammar Qaddafi against Assad.

In the face of this escalating big power standoff and the high possibility of the Syrian ruler deciding to lash out against his country’s neighbors, the Israeli, Jordanian and Turkey armies have declared a high state of war preparedness.

FAIR USE NOTICE: This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law.

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In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more detailed information go to:

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Bring Them In, Bring Them In, Bring Them In From World Terror Fields!

Saturday, November 26th, 2011

Bring world’s wandering terrorists into its existing National Terror Cells

Where the Cells are also engaged in recruiting Natives in the Nations

The Number Of the Terrorist Cells Within US and Its Allies Is Growing

They will See and feel their actions within when Islam Attacks Israel

November 27, 2011

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

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Begin Excerpt 1 from THE WALL STREET JOURNAL via World News

EUROPE NEWS

NOVEMBER 24. 2011, 7:27 A.M. ET

Migration to U.K. Hits Record

BY ALISTAIR MACDONALD

Migration into Britain last year hit its highest rate since record-keeping began in 1964, dealing a blow to Prime Minister David Cameron, who won power promising to curb an unprecedented wave of immigration into the U.K.

Migration—defined as the difference between the total number of people who enter and exit the country to live—hit 252,000 in 2010.

Begin Excerpt 2 from the Center for Immigration Studies

Europe’s Miyahideen: Where Mass Immigration Meets Global Terrorism

By Robert S, Leiken

April 2006

Background and Report

In the late 1990s the European public began to grow restive in the face of perceived government failure even to identify the sources of “insecurity” (a politically correct French code word for vandalism, delinquency, and violent assaults often linked to immigrant enclaves), still less to reduce it, and policies that failed either to regulate the arrival of immigrants or to integrate their new neighbors. In the 21st century, extremism and terrorism emanating from the same population has converted discontent into electoral rebellion and crisis, as in the foulard (headscarf) controversy in France, the asylum crisis in Great Britain, and the reaction to Van Gogh’ s hideou

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s assassination. Pro-immigration lobbies and scholars often treat the connection of Islamist terrorism and international immigration with condescension or invective.

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But this defensive stance will not withstand what Solzhenitsyn called “the pitiless crowbar of events.”27

Trends of Terrorism

Like international migration, global terrorism presented a rising trajectory in the period 1970-2003. To capture the tendencies of global terrorism we analyzed the RAND-MIPT database on terrorism, a convenient tool for quantitative and analytical research.28 We focused on the targets listed by RAND that could be indisputably classified as civilian.29 We looked at the evolution of casualties from terrorist attacks on civilians from 1968 to 2003 and found a clear trend of targeting the civilians in larger numbers. To quantify this trend more precisely we arrived at a terrorist casualty ratio per year—total victims (injured+killed) / total incidents. We then calculated the averages of these ratios for the 1970s (1970-1979), 1980s (1980-1989), the 1990s (1990-1999) and for 2000-2003. We found an average casualty per incident rate of 4.47 for the 1970s, 4.87 for the 1980s, 12.29 for the 1990s, 14.49 for the period 2000-2003.

The sharp rise in casualties corresponds to the emergence of Islamist terrorism. During the 1970s and 1980’s the predominant terrorist groups responsible for the most casualties were secular (largely nationalist, anarchist, or fascist). In the 1990’s those groups were supplanted by religious, typically Islamist, groups, and we witnessed a corresponding rise in both casualties per incident as well as lethality. We calculated and compared the casualty rates for the two kinds of groups between 1968 and 2003. We found 3.27 casualties per incident for the secular nationalist groups and 27.05 casualties per incident for the religious groups. By the same token, the lethality ratio (total dead / incidents) is 0.92 for the secular groups and 38.4 for the religious groups.30 (See Appendix,)

Thus in the very period that mass immigration to

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the West rose, there was a parallel rise in mass terrorism. It would be shallow and misleading to link these two trends in a sensational way.

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As we indicated from the outset if mass immigration and mass terrorism may be said to stem from similar causes (globalization, “imperialism,” modernization et al.), they have different social sources and objectives. Our point here is that these two phenomena converge in Western Europe.

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This convergence poses the least appreciated threat to Western security today.

U.S. and European Muslims

If it is to strike the United States, al Qaeda, as a 9-11 Commission Staff Report phrased it, has “a travel problem:” how to transport mujahideen from their breeding grounds to their target areas.31 To understand why this task is both necessary and feasible, we must glance at the Muslim communities in the United States and Western Europe.

So far those American Muslims receptive to jihad have expressed it by supporting Palestinian Islamist groups, in funding terrorism, not committing it.

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To strike at the United States, it appears that al Qaeda generally must rely on infiltration as opposed to domestic “sleeper cells” and recruitment, though there are rare examples of the latter, such as the case of Iyman Faris, the Ohio trucker-and naturalized U.S. citizen, who attempted to destroy the Brooklyn Bridge. (In the light of the Islamization of major American Islamic groups and mosques, one cannot discount the emergence of American sleeper cells in the future. For a discussion of this, see Bearers, chapter 4).

As opposed to their American counterparts who enter a settler country, “a country of immigration,” in Western Europe immigration is generally a recent phenomenon occurring in less expansive geographical units. Partly for that reason, immigration in many European countries has become a national issue in a way and to a degree that has yet to happen in the United States. But what most sharply distinguishes European from American immigrants is their provenance, in the former most often

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from Muslim countries. Moreover, European Muslim immigrants tend to be indigent and to live in enclaves unlike their American counterparts. European Muslims typically live in banlieues (outer “inner cities”). American Muslims tend to be educated professional or business people who are far more affluent than their European equivalents.32

Western censuses do not inquire into faith, making for wide discrepancies in estimates of Muslim immigrant populations, with government and journalistic estimates tending to be larger than those of scholars.

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Either set of calculations may be influenced by political considerations.

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Nevertheless we can make some rough estimates of the numbers of Muslims residing in those countries, with the predominant source country in parenthesis. Demographers believe that the U.S. Muslim population does not exceed three million, less than 2 percent of the population.33 In France (Algerian, Moroccan) that population reaches 7 to 10 percent (news reports suggest five to seven million Muslims reside in France) with government figures on the higher scale and academics coming in as low as 3.7 million.34 The Netherlands Muslim (Moroccan) population reaches one million or 6.2 percent of the country’s 16 million people.

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Germany’s Muslim population (Turkish) is about 3.7 percent (approximately three million) and Belgium’s 3.7 percent.35 The U.K number is 2.7 percent or about two million, but radical fundamentalism prevails in many British mosques and communities.36 Thus France and the Netherlands have the largest Muslim populations as a percent of their population, followed by Germany, Denmark, Sweden, and Britain at around 3 percent.

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Norway, Finland, and Ireland have among the smallest Muslim populations in Western Europe, under one percent.

Muslims form the majority of immigrants in most Western European countries, including Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany or, as in the U.K., the largest single component. Moreover, while America’s Muslims are diffused geographically and are fragmented ethnically, European Muslims tend to congregate in enclaves or even ghettoes. We have not been able to go beyond estimates as to the numbers of immigrants from specific countries (e.g. Tunisians in Italy or Moroccans in the Netherlands). Our matrix of 373 terrorists found more French nationals than nationals of Pakistan and Yemen combined. Likewise we found more Britons than Sudanese, Yemenis, Emiratis, Lebanese, or Libyans. These results highlight the Western European Muslim immigrant component of international terrorism.

Begin Excerpt 3 from the World Savvy Monitor Human Migration

Issue 7, January 2009

Migration, Security, and Counterterrorism

The impact of immigration on homeland security in the “Age of Terror,” particularly after the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, is a topic of much debate.

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Some domestic terrorism has been linked to migrants or foreign nationals in countries all over the world for some time, an obvious example being IRA attacks in England during the 1980s.

These events are differentiated from acts of war because the targets are civilians, and the perpetrators’ goal is to undermine civilian morale in order to alter some aspect of the host country’s policies. Domestic terrorists have often been migrants, or naturalized or second generation immigrant citizens of their target countries.

The rise of Islamic jihad against Western targets, typically wealthy, democratic countries of destination for immigrants, has caused an attitudinal shift in these countries.

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The US, UK and France have set about not only strengthening their borders, but also monitoring Muslim immigrant populations closely.

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Counterterrorism and homeland security concerns have come to heavily impact immigration policy. From no-fly lists to rigorous background checks to electronic surveillance, countries that were already beginning to restrict immigration through formal and procedural channels became even less welcoming. As we saw in the Restrictions section, these moves unleashed robust domestic debates at home and worldwide about civil liberties and human rights.

FAIR USE NOTICE: This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the

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copyright owner. We are mak ing such material available

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in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more detailed information go to:

http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml.

You may use material originated by this site. However, if you wish to use any quoted copyrighted material from this site, which did not originate at this site, for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner from which we extracted it.

Watch Out for a Hezbollah Takeover of Beirut if Assad Falls!

Saturday, November 26th, 2011

Watch Out for a Hezbollah Takeover of Beirut

If Assad is assassinated or replaced by Araba

November 26, 2011

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

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Begin Excerpt from THE JERUSALEM POST

If Assad falls, Hezbollah will take Beirut’

By JPOST.COM STAFF

11/22/2011 16:04

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Free Patriotic Movement fearing Israeli offensive in Lebanon.

Hezbollah may launch a military offensive to take over the Lebanese capital of Beirut if Syrian President Bashar Assad is forced out of power, Dubai-based Arabic-language news website Al Arabiya reported Tuesday according to a “source close to Hezbollah.”

According to the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, despite an air of confidence in broadcasts from Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, officials behind closed doors have begun to worry about the potential fallout that may result following the collapse of the Syrian regime, especially given the alliance between Hezbollah, Syria and Iran.

“The moment that Hezbollah feels that the fall of the Assad regime is imminent – either as a result of the popular movement or of foreign military intervention – it will move quickly to take control of East and West Beirut,” the sources told Al Arabiya.

The source added that Hezbollah would receive support from the Free Patriotic Movement – a faction with eleven ministers in the Lebanese government – led by former Lebanese army commander Michel Aoun.

The source said that Hezbollah would seek to fortify itself in the nation’s capital in order to defend itself against the threat posed by Israel, which may feel emboldened enough following the fall of Assad to launch an offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Hezbollah, a close ally of both Syria and Iran, has denounced any potential foreign intervention inside Syria. Nasrallah warned earlier this month in a televised speech to commemorate “Martyr’s Day” that any attack on Syria or Iran would lead to an all-out regional war.

Israel has said that Iran has heavily armed Hezbollah by smuggling weapons through Syria. In August, as protests raged across Syria, Turkish officials seized Iranian arms that were transferred through Syria and reportedly en route to the militant Islamist group in Lebanon.

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Begin Excerpt from MEMRI

Middle East Media Research Institutes

Inquiry and Analysis Servers Report

The Miqati Government in Lebanon – Continued Subjugation to the Syrian Patron

By: E. Picali*

November 23, 2011

Inquiry and Analysis Report No. 763

Introduction

The popular uprising in Syria, which began in mid-March 2011, has major ramifications for Lebanon. This is due to the countries’ geographical proximity and their close and complex ties, and especially due to the fact that Syria sees Lebanon as its protectorate. This document will focus on the position of the Lebanese government, under Prime Minister Najib Al-Miqati, vis-à-vis the popular uprising in Syria, and will also review the stance of the pro-Syrian Lebanese press, and of representatives of the Christian and Druze communities in Lebanon.

Miqati and His Government: Support Disguised as Neutrality

The Political and Diplomatic Arena

Since its formation on June 13, 2011, Najib Miqati’s government, which is dominated by the pro-Syrian March 8 Forces, has outwardly adopted a stance of neutrality regarding the events in Syria, and of non-interference in Syria’s internal affairs, on the grounds that Syria’s security and stability are tied to Lebanon’s. One expression of this neutral stance was Lebanon’s decision to “disassociate itself” from the August 3, 2011 UN Security Council condemning Syria for human rights violations and for its use of violence against civilians. Explaining this decision, Miqati said that Lebanon did not wish to “interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, especially Arab countries,”[1] and added: “We must… understand the extent of the dangers [to Lebanon’s unity], and do everything to extinguish every burning fuse before the fire spreads to [our] domestic arena…”[2]

This decision met with criticism from circles in Lebanon, especially – but not exclusively – from Miqati’s opponents. Former Lebanese prime minister and current acting head of the Al-Mustaqbal party in the Lebanese parliament Fouad Al-Siniora said: “We do not want to interfere in the events in Syria… but our human emotions are [provoked] by the images of bloodshed and of the dead.”[3]

‘Imad Al-Hout, an MP with the Muslim Brotherhood party, Al-Jama’a Al-Islamiyya, called Miqati’s stance “immoral,”[4] and ‘Ali Hamada, a columnist for the daily Al-Nahar, called the Miqati government “a child-murdering government.”[5] Sati’ Nour Al-Din, editor of the pro-Syrian daily Al-Safir, wrote: “Lebanon should not be neutral in the face of the massacre in Syria…”[6]

However, Miqati’s apparently neutral stance did not manage to hide his government’s inclination towards the Syrian regime. In late September Miqati told Arab ambassadors at the UN that “Lebanon refuses to impose any sanctions on Syria.”[7] On September 19, the daily Al-Safir reported that Lebanese Foreign Minister ‘Adnan Mansour would coordinate positions with his Syrian counterpart prior to the meeting of the Arab League foreign ministers in Cairo dealing with the Syrian situation.[8] Following the meeting, Mansour expressed reservations about its closing statement, which called for a halt to the violence in Syria.[9] At a press conference, after meeting with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, Mansour said: “The Lebanese government supports Syria, who has met [the people’s] demands for reform.”[10] On September 28, in a meeting with his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu, Mansour called “to give the Syrian leadership sufficient time to enact reforms.”[11] He told the Kuwaiti paper Al-Anba: “Lebanon supports Syria in the face of any further condemnation resolution… Whatever hurts Syria hurts Lebanon.”[12]

Further evidence of the pro-Syrian stance of the Miqati government is found in various media reports: The Al-Akhbar daily reported that Miqati’s brother Taha visited Damascus several times and met with associates of Assad to learn about Damascus’ position.[13] The Al-Mustaqbal daily reported, citing a diplomatic source, that in early September, Miqati secretly met in Damascus with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Mu’allem and with the former head of Syrian Intelligence, General Rustum Ghazale.[14] (The report was denied by Miqati’s office).[15]

An October 8 report in the Al-Akhbar daily indicated the extent of Syria’s influence over the Miqati government. The newspaper, which is close to Hizbullah, revealed that Syria had conveyed to Miqati that Lebanon could abstain in the vote on a proposed Security Council resolution condemning Syria, since Russia would veto the resolution.[16] An Al-Mustaqbal editorial responded by saying: “According to news leaked by the resistance paper [Al-Akhbar], Lebanon’s neutral stance regarding an anti-Syrian resolution in the Security Council was determined in a telephone conversation with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Once again it has been proven… that the Lebanese government continues to take orders from its masters abroad [in Syria] and at home [i.e. Hizbullah] in equal measure.”[17]

It seems that the August 8 calls by Miqati[18] and by Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s deputy Na’im Qassem,[19] as well as the August 26 calls by Nasrallah himself,[20] to end the violence in Syria and commence dialogue were purely tactical responses prompted by the especially high death toll in Syria at the start of Ramadan.

Miqati’s attempt to create an impression of a moderate and neutral Lebanese government was presumably motivated by Lebanon’s dependence on Western aid, both economic and military, and by the fact that it has since mid-September been serving as the rotating president of the Security Council. This tactic is also employed vis-à-vis other major issues in Lebanese politics, such as the Special Tribunal for Lebanon that is investigating the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri, and its funding.

Later, on November 12, the Lebanese government revealed its true colors when it voted against the Arab League decision to suspend Syria’s membership in the organization, impose economic and political sanctions upon it, recall the Arab ambassadors from Syria, and urge the Syrian army to cease its violence against civilians.[21] This Lebanese move surprised even some members of the government, who complained that they had not been consulted and that Miqati and Foreign Minister Mansour had taken the decision on their own.[22]

The Security Arena

Another indication of the Miqati government’s real stance on the Syrian events is its treatment of protestors and Lebanese

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and Syrian activists in Lebanon, and of Syrian refugees there, as well as its response to incursions by the Syrian army into its territory. Outwardly, the government allows demonstrations both for and against the Syrian regime, and allows Syrian refugees to enter its territory. However, many reports indicate that Lebanese security forces are trying to rein in Lebanese and Syrian opponents of the Syrian regime. They refuse to permit protests in front of the Syrian Embassy[23] and set up road blocks to prevent protestors from reaching the spot;[24] in addition, they raid the homes of Lebanese anti-Assad activists;[25] fail to protect supporters of the Syrian uprising from the violence of pro-Assad activists;[26] summon Islamist movement officials to appear before military courts for their involvement in demonstrations supporting the Syrian people

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;[27] and so on.

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On July 25, Sa’d Al-Din Shatila, the head of the Al-Karama human rights organization, was arrested after his organization published a report regarding the mistreatment of Syrian refugees by the Lebanese security apparatuses.[28] On August 25, Al-Mustaqbal reported, citing the AFP, that Lebanese military intelligence had arrested the Syrian oppositionist Zuheir Al-Najjar in Tripoli.

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According to a September 13 report by Al-Mustaqbal columnist Fadi Al-Shamia, the Syrian ambassador to Lebanon, ‘Ali ‘Abd Al-Karim ‘Ali, heads a security mechanism that monitors and threatens Syrian oppositionists and even abducts them.[29] On October 10, Lebanese internal security chief Ashraf Rifi told the Lebanese parliament’s human rights committee that five Syrian oppositionists – four members of the Jassem family and a fifth named Shibli Al-‘Ismi – had been abducted by the Lebanese security force that guards the Syrian Embassy in Beirut, and that an embassy vehicle had been used in the operation.[30]

On August 19, following a meeting with a diplomat at the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanese Interior Minister Marwan Charbel said that the meeting participants had “discussed the fate of some Syrian oppositionists who disappeared in Lebanon,” and that Lebanon’s security apparatuses were investigating the matter.[31] In contrast, Miqati declared, in a September 6 interview with AFP, that he received no complaints regarding the extradition of Syrian soldiers who had defected or the penalizing of Syrian oppositionists.[32] It seems that Miqati’s comments came in response to a statement released two days prior by the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon, according to which “the United States attributes importance to the role of the Lebanese army in protecting Syrian oppositionists in Lebanon, since this is one of Lebanon’s international and legal obligations…”[33]

The human rights violations, and the constraints on free speech regarding Syria, are also evident from Lebanese Minister Nicholas Fatoush’s call to the government to take harsher measures against Syrian regime opponents, as required by the agreement between the countries.[34] The media did not remain silent in the face of these calls and steps. At a meeting of TV network representatives from across the Lebanese political spectrum, the participants denounced these steps and demanded to preserve freedom of the press in the country.[35]

An especially blatant expression of the Lebanese government’s subjugation to Syria was its disregard, and even its understanding, of Syria’s repeated violations of its sovereignty.

Since early October, there have been increasing reports of Syrian army incursions into Lebanese territory in pursuit of Syrian oppositionists, and of attacks on them and on Lebanese citizens.[36] In a statement dated October 5, the March 14 Forces condemned these incursions and demanded that the government put an end to them.[37] An October 7 Al-Mustaqbal editorial was dedicated to the Lebanese government’s disregard of repeated violations of its sovereignty.[38]

The West also took notice.

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On October 7, a French Foreign Ministry spokesman expressed his country’s concern regarding these incursions and regarding the killing of a Syrian citizen on Lebanese soil, and called to respect Lebanon’s independence and sovereignty.[39] A U.S. State Department spokesman likewise condemned the incursions and called on Damascus to honor Lebanon’s sovereignty, expressing concern regarding “the reports of arrests of Syrian oppositionists [in Lebanon] and of occasional deaths resulting from military action close to the border.”[40] In a press conference, the E.U. ambassador to Lebanon stressed the importance of demarcating the border between Syria and Lebanon, and Lebanon’s importance as a safe haven for Syrian refugees.[41]

In response to these criticisms, Lebanese Justice Minister Shakib Qortbawi said: “These matters are handled by the security forces… All the rest is political chatter.”[42] The Syrian ambassador to Lebanon responded similarly.[43] Lebanese Foreign Minister ‘Adnan Mansour told the Kuwaiti daily Al-Anba that Syrian army incursions into Lebanese territory had not been discussed by the Lebanese government because the issue had not been on the agenda of their last meeting, and that, in any case, these were temporary and shallow incursions by a friendly country.

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He also denied that the Syrian army had harmed Lebanese citizens.[44] Interior Minister Charbel said that the source of the problem was the uncertainty regarding the exact location of the border, and that Syria regarded the area in which its soldiers had operated as Syrian territory.[45]

In addition, on November 5, the Lebanese army confirmed that its trucks occasionally entered Syria to provide logistic equipment and spare parts for Syrian vehicles, in accordance with the cooperation agreement between the countries.[46]

The Economic Arena

Reports on the economic cooperation between Lebanon and the Assad regime are few but revealing. On July 18, the Lebanese website Al-Nour reported, citing Nasri Khouri, secretary-general of the Supreme Syrian-Lebanese Council, that the close cooperation between the central banks of Syria and Lebanon had thwarted an attempt to harm the Syrian lira.[47] On October 4, the Al-Akhbar daily reported that since early 2011, the total amount of deposits in Lebanese banks had increased by $6 billion, and that some believe that the additional sums came from Syria.[48] According to a September 26 report in the Al-Safir daily, the U.S. Treasury Department requested clarifications from Lebanese Finance Minister Muhammad Al-Safadi regarding Syrian deposits in Lebanese banks.[49] A few days later, the newspaper reported that during a meeting in New York, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned Miqati against cooperating with Syrian attempts to circumvent the U.S. sanctions on Syria by transferring funds to Lebanese banks.[50] The U.S.’s suspicions refer to Miqati himself. On August 19, the Kuwaiti daily Al-Rai reported, citing sources in the U.S. Treasury Department, that the U.S. is close to proving financial ties between the Assad family and Najib Miqati and his brother Taha, and that the U.S. is expected to impose sanctions on them as well.[51]

Criticism of the Lebanese government’s financial policy was also voiced inside Lebanon.

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On September 28, the March 14 Forces called “to prevent Lebanon’s monetary and financial [system] from being turned into an economic lung for the Syrian regime.”[52] Surprisingly, criticism also appeared in the daily Al-Akhbar, which is close to Hizbullah. Columnist Fida ‘Itani wrote: “The Americans… have imposed sanctions on [our] Syrian neighbors, and it is possible that any participation by the Lebanese banking sector in breaking the siege on Syria, now or in the future… will cost [us] dearly in [harm] to the Lebanese currency.”[53]
In Contrast to Miqati Government’s Unreserved Support, Pro-Syrian Press Levels Harsh Criticism at Syria

The pro-Syrian stance of the Miqati government stands out even more starkly when contrasted with the shift in the position of the pro-Syrian and pro-March 8 Forces newspapers Al-Safir and Al-Akhbar. These two dailies, until recently blatantly supportive of the Syrian regime, sharply changed their positions with the start of the Syrian uprising, and began to level harsh criticism at the regime.

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From the start of the protests, these dailies understood, in light of the uprisings in other Arab countries and their outcomes, that the Syrian regime must enact true reforms and avoid violence if it wished to survive and to continue acting as an important link in the resistance axis. They covered the events in a free and balanced manner.

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As the protests and bloodshed in Syria increased, they ratcheted up their criticism of the Syrian regime and its ally Hizbullah, and even initiated ties with the Syrian opposition and reported on its activities. An expression of this was the interview held by Al-Akhbar on October 14 with Syrian liberal oppositionist Haitham Al-Malih.[54]

It should be noted that when the Arab League began to take steps against Syria in early November, the two dailies stopped their criticism of its regime, and the daily Al-Akhbar even resumed expressing a degree of support for Assad. However, the following will chronicle

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the period in which the dailies were critical of the Assad regime.

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On April 4, the owner of Al-Safir, Tallal Salman, criticized a speech by Assad, saying: “This speech does not fit the dangerous situation in Syria and its possible implications considering the popular uprisings throughout the [Arab world]. It prompted the opposite response [from what Assad intended] because it failed to address the basic and immediate reforms that the Syrians desire.”[55] On August 1, following the deadly events in Hama, Salman wrote: “[These events] have dashed the hopes pinned on dialogue [between the regime and the protesters].”[56] One week later, he wrote that Syria, “who’s face is covered with blood,” had lost leadership of the region.[57] On August 9, Al-Safir editor Sati’ Nour Al-Din wrote that Assad’s rejection of Saudi Arabia’s and Turkey’s demand to cease violence was “an act of suicide.”[58] On August 3, Ibrahim Al-Amin, the head of Al-Akhbar’s board of directors, wrote: “The Syrian authorities are crazy if they think that disregarding, ignoring, or maligning [the opposition] will harm its image in the eyes of the public.”[59]

Syria responded harshly to the criticism voiced by these formerly sympathetic papers. In early April, Ibrahim Al-Amin reported that Syria had banned the distribution of his paper on the previous day, and had even summoned some of its journalists for investigation.[60] On May 8, a Syrian oppositionist website, citing the Lebanese website Al-Nashra, reported that Al-Safir correspondent Ghadi Francis, who came to cover the events in Syria, and Al-Akhbar correspondent Ghassan Sa’ud, had been arrested by the Syrian authorities.[61] In mid June, Syria again banned the distribution of Al-Akhbar, and one month later, it banned the distribution of Al-Safir as well. In response, Al-Amin called the Syrian regime misguided, saying that events must be reported as they were.[62]

On August 20, Al-Amin described Al-Akhbar’s position and its relationship with the Syrian regime since the outbreak of the protests: “When the protests started, Al-Akhbar decided… that Syria needs… [only] comprehensive reforms, because President Assad is [much] honored for his stance on Israel, and this enables him to enact such reforms, and because not all the Syrian people is condemning him. But… the Syrian regime responded harshly [to the protests], without distinguishing between [the protesters] who wanted economic reforms and those who wanted to oust it…

“In light… of the regime’s clamp down on the demonstrators, the multitude of killings and arrests, and the deepening schism, and due to the dispute regarding the sincerity of the Syrian authorities’ claims that terror groups tied to hostile foreign elements [were behind the events in Syria], we all became… hostages of daily events. Al-Akhbar was accused of joining the media chorus directed and funded by Qatar, which was working to topple the regime in Syria, and Syria decided to ban circulation of some of Al-Akhbar’s editions… The regime focused on the daily articles by our colleague Khaled Saghia, who not only covered the events, but employed the tools and followed the strategy outlined by the [paper’s] management… regarding the professional coverage of these [events]… [presenting them] as a legitimate popular revolution against a tyrannical regime. Having supported [the revolutions] in the other Arab countries, Al-Akhbar could stop [doing so] at the gates of Damascus… This continued until an even more violent clash occurred, when the regime decided to ban Al-Akhbar from entering Syria [altogether].”[63]

Al-Akhbar also criticized Hizbullah’s stance vis-à-vis Syria. For example, columnist Fida ‘Itani wrote that “Hizbullah’s stance on the revolution in Syria is the opposite of what it should be.”[64]

The Maronite Church: The Syrian Regime Is Good for the Christians

Maronite Patriarch Beshara Al-Ra’i, the representative of the Eastern Church in the Vatican since March 2011, hopes for stability in Syria out of concern for the fate of the Christian minority in Lebanon, Syria, and elsewhere in the Middle East. In light of the hardship experienced by Christians in other Arab countries whose regimes were overturned, such as Egypt and Iraq, he believes that preserving Assad’s regime, and thus Syria’s stability, will guarantee the safety of its Christian minority.

Accordingly, Al-Ra’i has tightened relations with Syria and Hizbullah. At a September 7, 2011 press conference in Paris, after meeting there with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and other French officials, he said: “Before us stands the example of Iraq. Are we headed for civil wars whose price will be paid by the people, and especially by the Christians, as happened in that country? Are we headed toward more extreme regimes that will harm the minorities, and especially the Christians

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? Are we headed for… the disintegration of the Arab world into small sectarian states?… None of these three options will benefit the peoples, democracy, or the values [which prompt] the West to encourage the uprisings. We, as Christians, will go as sheep to the slaughter…”[65] The following day, Al-Ra’i said: “A regime change in Syria, and the rise of the Sunnis to power, will lead to an alliance with their Sunni brothers in Lebanon, which in turn will lead to a great crisis between [Lebanon’s] Shi’ites and Sunnis.”[66]

It can be assumed that Al-Ra’i’s statements, which were made in France, were meant to dissuade the West and the international community from imposing sanctions on Syria that could destabilize Assad’s regime.

Al-Ra’i’s statements met with satisfaction on the part of the Syrian regime and Hizbullah, but aroused rage among other circles in Lebanon and outside it. On September 15, French Ambassador to Lebanon Denis Pietton expressed disappointment at Al-Ra’i’s remarks.[67] U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Maura Connelly told Al-Ra’i that President Obama would not meet with him during his visit to the U.S. in October.[68]

The responses from Lebanon’s Christian leaders were in line with their political affiliations. Michel ‘Aoun, head of the March 8 Forces, praised Al-Ra’i’s statement, noting that “the alternative to the current regime in Syria is the Muslim Brotherhood, who believes that democracy contravenes the shari’a.”[69] The Christian leaders from among the March 14 Forces, on the other hand, denounced the statements. For example, Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces, who is one of Syria’s and Hizbullah’s bitterest enemies among Lebanon’s Christians, told the weekly Al-Usbu’ Al-‘Arabi that “tying the fate of the Christians to that of totalitarian regimes is a distortion of our history and identity.”[70] Amin Al-Gemayel took up an ambivalent stance. Initially, he claimed that his Al-Kataeb (Phalangist) party identified with every people that struggled for freedom and honor,[71] but later he expressed agreement with Al-Ra’i’s statements, explaining that all Christians shared his fears, and added that Al-Ra’i was not the patriarch of the March 8 Forces only, but was working to consolidate the patriarchy.[72]

President Michel Suleiman, also a Christian, likewise expressed sympathy for Al-Ra’i’s position. Following a meeting with him on September 15, he said that Al-Ra’i’s statements “stemmed from the national and historic role of the Church.”[73]
The Al-Mustaqbal faction stated in a September 13 announcement: “The democratic regime that the Arab peoples want to establish is one that respects religious, personal, and political freedoms, and human rights.”[74] Fouad Siniora, currently standing in for Al-Hariri as head of the Al-Mustaqbal party, said on September 25: “Certain regimes [i.e. Syria] are trying to cause the people despair and to scare them [by] saying that ousting [the regime] will bring the extreme Islamists to power… We say that… a sweeping majority of Muslims, [including] all sectors of Syrian, Lebanese, or Egyptian society, want to eliminate the oppression that has harmed not only the Muslims in these countries, but also all the Christian [communities]…”[75]

The pan-Islamic Hizb Al-Tahrir movement called on Al-Ra’i to advocate “an Islamist regime, which has never throughout history discriminated among [religious] sects.”[76] ‘Azzam Al-Ayyoubi, head of the political bureau of the Lebanese Muslim Brotherhood, said that Al-Ra’i’s stance was based on “a largely erroneous assessment” and promised to work towards moderating the Islamist discourse “due to our belief in living side by side [with the Christians].”[77]

Notable is the position of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt who, although fearing for the fate of the Druze in Syria and Lebanon, has not held back his harsh criticism of the Syrian regime’s violence against the protestors. Unlike Al-Ra’i, Jumblatt has concluded that the Syrian regime, as it is, has no future. In response to Al-Ra’i’s statements he wrote in his party’s newspaper: “The alarmist talk about the Salafi or fundamentalist streams rising to power is inaccurate and serves to spread fear [among the minorities]. The popular demands… are [for] understandable and fundamental rights to which all peoples are entitled, without discrimination.”[78] However, Jumblatt believes that anarchy must be avoided, in order to protect the Druze community in Syria and in Lebanon. To this end, he has attempted, unsuccessfully, to mediate between Syria and Qatar,[79] the U.S.,[80] and Turkey.[81] In addition, he proposed a resolution to the crisis in Syria that included punishing regime officials who were responsible for killing protestors, freeing prisoners, stopping the violence against civilians, condemning incitement to sectarian strife, and encouraging party pluralism and reform.[82]

The Syrian regime, for its part, responded to Jumblatt’s statements with rage, which, over time, led to a total disconnect between the two sides.[83]

Upon his return to Lebanon from Paris, Al-Ra’i attempted to make amends. In a visit to the ‘Aley region, he said: “…We do not intervene in any sectorial conflict, neither in Lebanon nor outside it. We support peace… Forget what was implicated by some of [my] words… which were completely detached from my basic positions.”[84] In a September 23 meeting with Maronite MPs at the seat of the Patriarchy, he said: “Do you think I support Bashar Al-Assad? [Do you think that] I do not I know what he did to the Lebanese, and to us Christians in particular?… What I told President Sarkozy was that we feared an ‘Alawi-Sunni conflict in Syria, whose price would be paid by the Christians.”[85]

Notwithstanding these statements, on September 28 Al-Ra’i received a Syrian delegation headed by the Mufti of Damascus, who expressed appreciation of Al-Ra’i’s statements in Paris.[86] Sheikh Bilal Dakmak, head of the Islamist association Ikra, said in response to this meeting: “How is it that Al-Ra’i fears for the Christians, yet at the same time hosts representatives [of the Syrian regime] that is killing the Syrian people? It would seem that the Muslims need protection [both] from those who kill them and from the plot of the minorities against them.”[87]

*E. Picali is a research fellow at MEMRI.

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