Archive for December, 2006

Making Israel the Spoil for Islam!

Thursday, December 7th, 2006

Making Israel the Spoil for Islam!
December 8, 2006

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

The Baker Committee Report is the start of a slow, but sure, pulling of

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the United States full support rug from under the Jewish State of Israel, leaving them only with rhetoric for our support. I really hate to see it happen.

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It is a deplorable action of which I am ashamed, leaving Israel to stand alone against her many enemies. It will not happen overnight, and many statements will be issued absolutely denying it, but we are now heading down the road of submission to the enemies of Israel in order to obtain peace

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and some sort of temporary relief from terrorism.

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I would be desperately concerned for Israel if I did not know that her Messiah, who is my Savior, will defend and lead her to victory at the end of her three and one-half year tour in the Negev.

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Revelation 12:6 – And the woman fled into the wilderness, where she hath a place prepared of God, that they should feed her there a thousand two hundred and threescore days.

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Zechariah 13:9 – And I will bring the third part through the fire, and will refine them as silver is refined, and will try them as gold is tried: they shall call on my name, and I will hear them: I will say, It is my people: and they shall say, The Lord is my God.

Micah 5:6 – And they shall waste the land of Assyria with the sword, and the land of Nimrod in the entrances thereof: thus shall HE deliver us from the Assyrian, when he cometh into our land, and when he treadeth within our borders. (See Archive Prophecy Update Number 67).

I believe the actions recommended by the Baker Report are setting the stage for when Meshech and Tubal come against Israel to take a spoil followed by a final coming down at Armageddon some three and one-half years later by Magog (Russia) to get its share of the spoil. Elements of this report follow Archive Prophecy Update Number 32 in the YNet News article by Attila Somfalvi.

The statement coming out of the Baker Committee Report that bore the weight of truth was: “There is no magic bullet.” Indeed, there is not, for the world is headed toward a series of events which will culminate in the battle of Armageddon three and one-half years after Israel is driven into the Negev Wilderness, and there is no magic that will stop the time of Jacob’s trouble.

PROPHECY UPDATE NUMBER 32

Summer, 2001

We concluded Prophecy Update Number 31 with an exposition of Ezekiel 38:12, which has been done continuously from Ezekiel 37:1. We will now continue this exposition, beginning with Ezekiel 38:13.

Ezekiel 38:13 – Sheba, and Dedan, and the merchants of Tarshish, with all the young lions thereof, shall say unto thee, Art thou come to take a spoil? hast thou gathered thy company to take a prey? to carry away silver and gold, to take away cattle and goods, to take a great spoil?

Verse 13 mentions three other descendants which were not mentioned previously as being among the horde that attacked Israel, namely, Sheba, Dedan, and Tarshish. Sheba and Dedan settled in the land we know as Saudi Arabia, later colonizing across the Red Sea in the horn we know today as Ethiopia. Tarshish is much harder to nail down to a specific location. The descendants of Tarshish were sea merchants who became the peoples of the Mediterranean Sea coast.

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The headquarters of the descendants of Tarshish is now generally accepted by most biblical authorities as a district in the south of Spain where the city of Tartessus once existed. The merchants of Tarshish scattered their descendants in village settlements along most of the coastal sections of Europe. I am persuaded that Europe represents the descendant offspring of Tarshish.

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It is quite possible that God may look upon the rest of Western Civilization as being the offspring (descendants) of Europe (“the young lions thereof”). The countries of the New World became the “melting pot” of Europe. It is very interesting what Saudi Arabia, Europe, and the rest of Western Civilization have to say to Gog about his attack on Israel: “Art thou come to take a spoil? Hast thou gathered thy company to take a prey? To carry away silver and gold, to take away cattle and goods, to take a great spoil?” This is no more or less than the perfect description of a diplomatic protest to Gog’s actions. When the anti-Christ and his armies roar south into Israel in a blitzkrieg lightning strike, the rest of the free world will protest, protest, protest – and do nothing about it. The anti-Christ will take Jerusalem within four days of his initial strike in the north, and within three weeks most of Israel will have fled into the Negev south of Beer sheva, where

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she will remain for some three and one-half years. Jerusalem will fall and only one-third of Israel’s population will make it safely into the Negev.

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Zechariah 13:8 to 14:2 – And it shall come to pass, that in all the land, saith the Lord, two parts therein shall be cut off and die; but the third shall be left therein.

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[9] And I will bring the third part through the fire, and will refine them as silver is refined, and will try them as gold is tried: they shall call on my name, and I will hear them: I will say, It is my people: and they shall say, The Lord is my God. Behold, the day of the Lord cometh, and thy spoil shall be divided in the midst of thee. [2] For I will gather all nations against Jerusalem to battle; and the city shall be taken, and the houses rifled, and the women ravished; and half of the city shall go forth into captivity, and the residue of the people shall not be cut off from the city.

For a full exposition of Gog, Magog, Meshech, and Tubal, please read Archive Prophecy Update Numbers 27 and 28 from 2001.

For an exposition of the wars before Armageddon, please read Archive Prophecy Update Number 125C, June 24, 2003, titled “One or Two Wars before Armageddon?”

Begin YNet News Article by Attila Somfalvi

Baker Report: Israel Must Prepare for a Different Reality

December 7, 2006

Attila Somfalvi (Ynet News)

“Israel will have to prepare for a completely different reality,” says former UN Ambassador Dore Gold in response to the submission of the Baker-Hamilton report. “Within two years American presence in Iraq will be minimal.” The majority of the report deals with Iraq, but a significant portion addresses the Israel-Arab conflict, which the report sees as the heart of Mideast unrest.

“The very willingness of the reports’ authors to start a dialogue with both Iran and Syria is an alarming development. It’s alarming because the United States isn’t requiring any preliminary conditions for this dialogue, and there is no mention of the Iranian nuclear program which continues to advance.”

“The recommendation in this report to talk to Syria and Iran, despite the fact that they’re responsible for the growing instability in Iraq, will only encourage them to continue employing their policies.”

“The report proves that Israel has been unsuccessful in conveying a clear message to the U.S. elite regarding the Iranian threat. How can the United Stated see Iran as a stabilizing force in Iraq when Iran is funding and supplying arms to terror factions, both in Iraq and in Lebanon?”

“In the immediate sense, the U.S. will try to renew the political process as part of a general regional strategy.” “Will the U.S. demand that Syria stop supporting terror? Will Israel be dragged into negotiations with those who will not even recognize it? Will America come to terms with the Iranian nuclear program?”

End YNet News Article

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We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more detailed information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. You may use material originated by this site. However, if you wish to use any quoted copyrighted material from this site, which did not originate at this site, for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner from which we extracted it.

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2010 Looks Like Earliest Date for Iran to Have a Deliverable Nuclear Warhead!

Thursday, December 7th, 2006

2010 Looks Like Earliest Date for Iran to have a Deliverable Nuclear Warhead!

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December 7, 2006

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Although I do not expect Israel to launch a nuclear weapon aga in

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st Iran unless Iran first launches one against them, nor do I expect Iran to use their future nuclear warheads unless Israel first launches against her, I do not believe that Iran will take the chance of initiating a conventional war against Israel without a nuclear deterrent. If the following estimate by experts in the Jerusalem Post of a 2010 date, turns out to be a good estimate plus or minus two years for Iran having a deliverable nuclear warhead, then my guesstimate of a conventional war Middle East war breaking out at some point in time between 2008 to 2012 seems to be reasonable.

Begin Jerusalem Post Article by Yaakov Katz

Iran hitting Obstacles to Enrichment

Yaakov Katz, THE JERUSALEM POST

December 7, 2006

While predicting Iran will still obtain nuclear power by the end of the decade, Western sources have told The Jerusalem Post that the Islamic Republic has recently encountered major technological complications in its attempts to enrich uranium.

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According to these sources, Iran’s nuclear program has encountered “serious” obstacles on its way to crossing the nuclear technological threshold and obtaining independent research and development capabilities. The obstacles have pushed off predictions regarding the point Iran would obtain these capabilities, with Western sources now claiming Iran will cross the technological threshold only in late 2007.

Despite the setbacks in the enrichment of uranium – a critical step in the development of a nuclear bomb – Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced plans last month to build 60,000 additional centrifuges, leading Western sources to believe that it was only a matter of time before Iran overcame the technological obstacle. Pakistan encountered similar difficulties in its nuclear program but eventually overcame them.

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Experts speculated that the enrichment difficulties Iran was encountering at its plant at Natanz could be behind Iran’s gaining interest in constructing a heavy-water nuclear plant near the town of Arak to produce plutonium, which can also be used to build a bomb.

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According to nuclear experts, Iran would need 3,000 working centrifuges to successfully enrich uranium. At the moment, Iran has two working cascades – each consisting of 164 centrifuges – at Natanz with which it claimed in April to have enriched uranium to 3.5 percent. For a bomb, uranium needs to be enriched to 90% or SQ, a nuclear technical term for Significant Quantity.

Once Iran completes the construction of the centrifuges and masters the technology it will still take a year to reach SQ and then another two years to assemble a nuclear device, or in 2010.

Teheran has said it intends to activate 3,000 centrifuges by late 2006 and then increase the program to 54,000 centrifuges.

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Iranian officials say that would produce enough enriched uranium to fuel a 1,000-megawatt reactor, such as that being built by Russia and nearing completion at Bushehr.

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Meanwhile Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said that sanctions would not force his country to abandon its nuclear program.

United Nations sanctions “would only complicate the situation” and could make it worse, Mottaki told diplomats and reporte

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rs during a visit to the Hague. He said sanctions were “not acceptable. And definitely it will bring some changes in our approach.”

On Tuesday, the UN Security Council and diplomats from other key nations met in Paris to discuss possible sanctions against Iran, which is suspected of seeking to build a nuclear arsenal. Teheran insists it only wants civilian nuclear energy.

“We hope the other parties come back to talks or negotiations,” Mottaki said at the Clingendael Institute, an international relations think tank.

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But he repeated that even if Iran was subjected to sanctions, it would not seek nuclear arms.

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“The time for nuclear weapons is over,” he said.

He said that, as a signatory to various international arms treaties, Iran would never use or make weapons of mass destruction.

During the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, Iranian generals “returned to Ayatollah Khomeini, and said ‘please, let us prepare a little bit of chemical weapons to prevent Saddam'” Hussein from using them, Mottaki said.

But Khomeini refused. “Iran was committed (to international restrictions) even during a time of war,” Mottaki said.

“Any sanction on Iran will only strengthen our resolve to advance our independence,” he said, repeating that Iran had the right under international law to pursue nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.

AP contributed to the report.

End Jerusalem Post Report

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We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law.

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In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more detailed information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. You may use material originated by this site.

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Hamas Hudna Tactic working in the South and UN Hizbollah Ceasefire working in the North – Military Weaponry pouring in while Israel exercises Self-Restraint – Hudna for a Holocaust!

Wednesday, December 6th, 2006

Hamas Hudna Tactic Working in the South and UN Hizbollah Ceasefire working in the North – Military Weaponry pouring in while Israel exercises Self-Restraint – Hudna for a Holocaust!

The two articles which follow, from the Jerusalem Post and Arutz Sheva Israel National News, are a grim outline of the terrorist plans to be ready and primed for the next conflict with Israel in the south and in the north. I do not believe a major attack will be launched until a solid coalition of Islamic nations are individually militarily prepared to win, which is one of the reasons I chose 2008 to 2012 as the window of time in which such a major attack was most likely to be launched.

December 7, 2005

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Begin Jerusalem Post Article

Mashaal: Hamas can still run Intifada

JPost.com Staff, THE JERUSALEM POST

December 5, 2006

Hamas can direct an intifada even if it sits in power, Hamas leader-in-exile Khaled Mashaal cautioned on Tuesday, adding that that the hudna (calm), like violence, was a Palestinian tactic in the conflict with Israel.

Even the establishment of a Palestinian state in the Gaza Strip and West Bank will not move Hamas to recognize Israel, as Palestinian lands would still remain “occupied,” Mashaal told the Lebanese newspaper Al Safir.

According to Israel Radio, Mashaal reiterated threats that if the international community failed to set up a framework for a Palestinian state defined by the 1967 borders within six months and assure refugees’ right of return, the Palestinians would resume their course of “resistance” against Israel.

Elsewhere on Tuesday, Mashaal’s words were backed up by Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, who asserted that in all the time he had served as prime minister, he had never taken steps against Palestinian armed groups or prevented them from carrying out operations.

Speaking at a rally the al-Yarmouk refugee camp in Syria, Haniyeh said his government did not condemn resistance but embraced it.

He emphasized that the Palestinian people would not give up a “single grain of the land of Palestine, nor would it relinquish the right of return for Palestinian refugees.”

Haniyeh added that Syrian President Bashar Assad had promised him that all Palestinian security prisoners would be released from Israeli jails.

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End Jerusalem Post Article

Begin Arutz Sheva Article

Hizbullah and Hamas Beating the War Drums

Monday, December 4, 2006 / 13 Kislev 5767

Despite the prime minister’s shift to ceasefire mode, army intelligence is busying itself preparing for the next war. Israel may face fierce fighting on both the northern and southern fronts.

By most accounts, the difficulties encountered during the Second Lebanon War will dwarf the next battlefield scenario, with the IDF’s General Staff and Shin Bet warning that Gaza-based terrorists have prepared themselves by importing tons of military grade explosives into Gaza, along with millions of rounds of ammunition, automatic weapons, anti-tank rockets and much more.

The right-wing “doomsday prophets” as they were dubbed by the “peace camp” politicians are now sadly sitting back trying to understand how the obvious was and is still ignored. Since the IDF’s unilateral retreat from southern Lebanon in May 2000, Hizbullah has turned itself

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into a formidable army, backed by Iran and Syria, supplied with many Russian-made advanced weapons.

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On the southern front, the government’s insistence on carrying out the Disengagement Plan of August 2005 has created a similar scenario.

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With IDF forces out of Gaza, the Rafiah border crossing to Egypt has served as a conduit for advanced weaponry, permitting Gaza

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Even after the increase in Kassam rocket fire into the Sderot and western Negev areas, the government refuses to order a major military operation into northern Gaza, giving terrorists even more time to prepare for the next war.

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Displacing some 10,000 Gazan Jews in the Disengagement, while morally apprehensible to some, was not the worst of the government’s fears with Shin Bet Director Yuval Diskin warning Gazan realities vis-à-vis weapons stockpiles is cause for true concern.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert by intelligence community accounts is permitting terrorists additional time to stockpile arms and prepare for a war by insisting the ceasefire be honored despite the firing of Kassam rockets from Gaza.

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Olmert is overruling the IDF’s General Staff and the most senior intelligence community officials by insisting the ceasefire be honored while terrorists continue setting up in Gaza.

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While IDF forces operated in Gaza during the Second Lebanon War, the next encounter will be significantly more difficult, if for nothing else, due to the fact that Israel has all but lost all of its deterrence abilities.

Military analysts report that the Kassam rockets that have been pounding Sderot and western Negev communities during the past six years have undergone much work and there are now improved models capable of carrying larger warheads deeper into southern Israel, possibly able to strike strategic installations such as a major Israel Electric Company power plant.

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Government ministers are still busying themselves with remaining in office, with senior ministers deflecting accusations to colleagues in the hope of surviving the Winograd Commission’s investigation into the Second Lebanon War. Defense Minister Amir Peretz, now at an all-time low in public opinion polls, is growing concerned over party primaries scheduled in a number of months.

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He has not only lost support for remaining defense minister in the polls, but even among his own party and ministerial colleagues.

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The prime minister is desperately seeking a new political initiative, willing to endure the daily rocket attacks will still observing the ceasefire in the hope of returning to the negotiating table with PA (Palestinian Authority) Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen). The spotlight of political negotiations could extricate Olmert out of his current predicament, the subject of numerous fraud investigations and the controversial national leader during the failed Second Lebanon War. Olmert is working in earnest to reach a deal with terrorists that will result in the release of IDF captive soldiers Gilad Shalit, Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev.

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Further complicating current realities is the growing instability in Lebanon, with many predicting it is only a matter of time until the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora falls, leaving Lebanon to the hands of Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah and his Hizbullah terror organization. This would place Iranian influence at Israel’s northern doorstep, a reality that appears increasingly likely at present.

The army however is not just sitting back. Despite the shakeup that resulted following the war, a major simulated war exercise will begin in a number of weeks, lasting through the winter, taking many of the worst possible scenarios into account in the hope of preparing forces for the worst. The exercise, originally scheduled to run for a number of weeks will not continue for over two months.

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We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more detailed information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. You may use material originated by this site. However, if you wish to use any quoted copyrighted material from this site, which did not originate at this site, for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner from which we extracted it.

No Major Middle East War until after 2007!

Wednesday, December 6th, 2006

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December 6, 2006

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

I do agree with the IDF Intelligence Branch predictions of another battle with Hizbollah in 2007, but I do not expect it to trigger a major war in the Middle East. I do not believe the biblical war involving 10 nations will begin until some point in time between 2008 and 2012, but that is simply a guesstimate on my part.

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One of the factors, on which my original premise was based, was the presence of American troops in Iraq. I did not, nor do I believe Syria or Iran is likely to participate in such a war with American troops still on their borders. They know that once our troops are withdrawn from the Middle East, the United States cannot send them back logistically in sufficient numbers at a fast enough rate to save Israel from defeat, and the Congress will be in no mood to return them because of fear of a renewed body bag count, the expenditure, and lack of public support.

The following article by Reuters was extracted from Haaretz. The bipartisan commission recommended “the withdrawal of most combat troops by early 2008,” which blends well with my original estimate of a full blown Middle East war beginning at some point in time between 2008 and 2012.

Begin Reuters Article from Haaretz

U.S. commission recommends enhanced diplomacy to stabilize Iraq

By Reuters

December 6, 2006

The United States faces a “grave and deteriorating” situation after three years of war in Iraq, a high-level commission warned bluntly on Wednesday, recommending enhanced diplomacy to stabilize the country and hopefully permit the withdrawal of most combat troops by early 2008.

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“There is no path that can guarantee success, but the prospects can be
improved,” the bipartisan commission said after an eight-month review of a war that has resulted in the deaths of more than 2,900 U.S. troops and grown so unpopular at home that it helped trigger a Democratic takeover of Congress in last month’s elections.

President George W. Bush received the report in an early meeting at the White House with commission members, and pledged to treat each proposal seriously and act in a “timely fashion.” He was flanked by the commission’s co-chairmen, former Secretary of State James A.

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Baker III, and former Rep.

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Lee Hamilton.

The report painted a grim picture of Iraq more than three years after U.S. forces toppled Saddam Hussein.

It warned that if the situation continues to deteriorate, there is a risk of a “slide toward chaos [that] could trigger the collapse of Iraq’s government and a humanitarian catastrophe.

“Neighboring countries could intervene… The global standing of the United States could be diminished. Americans could become more polarized,” commissioners said.

The report said there needs to be a renewed and sustained commitment by the United States to a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace on all fronts: Lebanon, Syria and Bush’s June 2002 commitment to a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine.

More than three-and-a-half years after the March 2003 invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, about 140,000 American troops remain in Iraq fighting an insurgency and trying to stop sectarian strife between Shiites and Sunnis.

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The conflict has lasted longer than U.S. involvement in World War Two and has killed more than 2,900 American troops.

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Ethnic fighting has killed thousands of Iraqis, raising debate over whether the country has descended into civil war and whether the U.S.-backed government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki can stem the carnage.

Bush has been under added political pressure to change course in Iraq since the November 7 elections when voters, who had soured on the war, ended Republican control of Congress.

The president, who was briefed on the report on Tuesday, has said he will listen to the group’s ideas but the White House said it doubted the panel’s five Republicans and five Democrats would provide a “magic bullet.”

Robert Gates, a former CIA director and commission member until Bush nominated him last month to replace Donald Rumsfeld as defense secretary, said the United States was not winning in Iraq and dismissed the prospect of quick solutions.

‘No new ideas’

“It’s my impression that, frankly, there are no new ideas on Iraq,” Gates told his Senate confirmation hearing.

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Still, the group led by Republican former Secretary of State James Baker and former Democratic Rep.

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Lee Hamilton of Indiana is expected to influence the debate over the war because its members were unanimous in their advice.

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Sources familiar with the group’s deliberations said the report would recommend the U.S. military shift away from combat and toward a supp ort role in Iraq over the next year

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It is also expected to call for a regional conference on stabilizing Iraq that could lead to direct U.S. talks with Iran and Syria, an option that the White House has opposed.

Pulling back combat forces to focus on providing training, advice, logistics and intelligence would still leave tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers in Iraq.

Bush has given little sign he will contemplate any quick exit from Iraq, saying repeatedly that U.S. forces would stay until the job is done.

“It’s in our interests to help liberty prevail in the Middle East, starting with Iraq.

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And that’s why this business about graceful exit simply has no realism to it at all,” Bush said after he met Maliki in Jordan last week. “We’ll be in Iraq until the job is complete.”

The White House has sought to blunt the impact of the Iraq Study Group’s work by conducting its own review of the war. Bush aides have said he is likely to take weeks rather than months to decide how and whether to change his policy.

End Reuters Article from Haaretz

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copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc.

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We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law.

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In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more detailed information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. You may use material originated by this site. However, if you wish to use any quoted copyrighted material from this site, which did not originate at this site, for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner from which we extracted it.

The Old Islamic Sick Man of Europe died in Two World Wars. Now the Old Christian Sick Man of Europe is dying as the Dead Islamic Man is being resurrected by the Spirit of Jihad!

Wednesday, December 6th, 2006

The Old Islamic Sick Man of Europe died in Two World Wars.

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Now the Old Christian Sick Man of Europe is dying as the Dead Islamic Man is being resurrected by the Spirit of Jihad.

December 6, 2006

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

When the Islamic Ottoman Empire conquered southeastern Europe it grew old, sick, and weak, to become known as the “Old Sick Man of Europe.” It left behind a remnant of itself that lay dormant until the oil

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of the land of Islam helped to develop a resurrected set of Middle East nations, where the teachings of Mohammad revived the ancient spirit of Jihad. The breakup of the Colonial Empires in the Middle East brought a constant flow of the followers of Islam into Europe, and now they are alive and vibrant, while the native Europeans have become the “Old Sick Man” themselves. I had assignments in Europe and the Middle East from time to time from 1952 to 1961, and made numerous trips to both areas thereafter up to this century, during which I watched the process that turned Europe into an “Old Sick Man,” scared of its own shadow, and observed it slowly turning back to its pre-World War II diplomatic stance of appeasement rather than confrontation. It is amusing, but s

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ad, for me to watch the prophetic world hang on to the teaching that Antichrist will arise out of a sick Europe rather than a vibrant spirit of Antichrist in the Middle East.

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I do know this – we are on the verge of finding out which viewpoint is correct.

The following article by Daniel Pipes, in the Jerusalem Post, will give you some things to think about, even if you do not agree with all its conclusions. The same is true about the book by Mark Steyn. Pipes’ takes the “bits and pieces” of Steyn’s book and puts them together.

A Devastating Thesis

Daniel Pipes, THE JERUSALEM POST

November 14, 2006

Mark Steyn, political columnist and cultural critic, has written a remarkable book, America Alone: The End of the World As We Know It. He combines several virtues uncommonly found together – humor, accurate reportage and deep thinking – then applies these to what is arguably the most consequential issue of our time: the Islamist threat to

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Steyn offers a devastating thesis, but presents it in bits and pieces, so I shall pull it together here.

He begins with the legacy of two totalitarianisms.

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Traumatized by the electoral appeal of fascism, post-World War II European states were constructed in a top-down manner “so as to insulate almost entirely the political class from populist pressures.” As a result, the establishment has “come to regard the electorate as children.”

Second, the Soviet menace during the Cold War prompted American leaders, impatient with Europe’s (and Canada’s) weak responses, effectively to take over their defense. This benign and farsighted policy led to victory by 1991, but it also had the unintended and less salutary side-effect of freeing up Europe’s funds to build a welfare state. This welfare state had several malign implications.

[1] The nanny state infantilized Europeans, making them worry about such pseudo-issues as climate change, while feminizing the males.

[2] It also neutered them, annexing “most of the core functions of adulthood,” starting with the instinct to breed. From about 1980 birth rates plummeted, leaving an inadequate base for today’s workers to receive their pensions.

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[3] Structured on a pay-as-you-go basis, it amounted to an inter-generational Ponzi scheme, where today’s workers depend on their children for their pensions.

[4] The demographic collapse meant that the indigenous peoples of countries like Russia, Italy and Spain are at the start of a population death spiral.

[5] It led to a collapse of confidence that, in turn, bred “civilizational exhaustion,” leaving Europeans unprepared to fight for their ways.

TO KEEP the economic machine running meant accepting foreign workers.

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Rather than execute a long-term plan to prepare for the many millions of immigrants needed, Europe’s elites punted, welcoming almost anyone who turned up. By virtue of geographic proximity, demographic overdrive and a crisis-prone environment, “Islam is now the principal supplier of new Europeans.”

Arriving at a time of demographic, political and cultural weakness, Muslims are profoundly changing Europe.

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“Islam has youth and will, Europe has age and welfare.” Put differently, “Pre-modern Islam beats post-modern Christianity.”

Much of the Western world, Steyn flat-out predicts, “will not survive the 21st century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes, including many, if not most, European countries.” With even more drama, he adds that “it’s the end of the world as we know it.”

(In contrast, I believe that Europe still has time to avoid this fate.)

America Alone deals at length with what Steyn calls “the larger forces at play in the developed world that have left Europe too enfeebled to resist its remorseless transformation into Eurabia.” Europe’s successor population is already in place and “the only question is how bloody the transfer of real estate will be.”

He interprets the Madrid and London bombings, as well as the murder of Theo van Gogh in Amsterdam, as opening shots in Europe’s civil war and states that “Europe is the colony now.”

THE TITLE `America Alone refers to Steyn’s expectation that the United States – with its “relatively healthy demographic profile” – will emerge as the lonely survivor of this crucible. “Europe is dying and America isn’t.” Therefore, “the Continent is up for grabs in a way that America isn’t.”

Steyn’s target audience is primarily American: Watch out, he is saying, or the same will happen to you.

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Pared to its essentials, he counsels two things:

First, avoid the “bloated European welfare systems,” declare them no less than a national security threat, shrink the state and emphasize the virtues of self-reliance and individual innovation.

Second, avoid “imperial understretch,” don’t “hunker down in Fortress America,” but destroy the ideology of radical Islam, help reform Islam, and expand Western civilization to new places.

Only if Americans “can summon the will to shape at least part of the emerging world” will they have enough company to soldier on. Failing that, expect a “new Dark Ages… a planet on which much of the map is re-primitivized.”

The writer, based in Philadelphia, is director of the Middle East Forum.

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