NO MAJOR MIDDLE EAST WA
R UNTIL AFTER 2007!
December 6, 2006
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
I do agree with the IDF Intelligence Branch predictions of another battle with Hizbollah in 2007, but I do not expect it to trigger a major war in the Middle East. I do not believe the biblical war involving 10 nations will begin until some point in time between 2008 and 2012, but that is simply a guesstimate on my part.
One of the factors, on which my original premise was based, was the presence of American troops in Iraq. I did not, nor do I believe Syria or Iran is likely to participate in such a war with American troops still on their borders. They know that once our troops are withdrawn from the Middle East, the United States cannot send them back logistically in sufficient numbers at a fast enough rate to save Israel from defeat, and the Congress will be in no mood to return them because of fear of a renewed body bag count, the expenditure, and lack of public support.
The following article by Reuters was extracted from Haaretz. The bipartisan commission recommended “the withdrawal of most combat troops by early 2008,” which blends well with my original estimate of a full blown Middle East war beginning at some point in time between 2008 and 2012.
Begin Reuters Article from Haaretz
U.S. commission recommends enhanced diplomacy to stabilize Iraq
By Reuters
December 6, 2006
The United States faces a “grave and deteriorating” situation after three years of war in Iraq, a high-level commission warned bluntly on Wednesday, recommending enhanced diplomacy to stabilize the country and hopefully permit the withdrawal of most combat troops by early 2008.
“There is no path that can guarantee success, but the prospects can be
improved,” the bipartisan commission said after an eight-month review of a war that has resulted in the deaths of more than 2,900 U.S. troops and grown so unpopular at home that it helped trigger a Democratic takeover of Congress in last month’s elections.
President George W. Bush received the report in an early meeting at the White House with commission members, and pledged to treat each proposal seriously and act in a “timely fashion.” He was flanked by the commission’s co-chairmen, former Secretary of State James A.
Baker III, and former Rep.
Lee Hamilton.
The report painted a grim picture of Iraq more than three years after U.S. forces toppled Saddam Hussein.
It warned that if the situation continues to deteriorate, there is a risk of a “slide toward chaos [that] could trigger the collapse of Iraq’s government and a humanitarian catastrophe.
“Neighboring countries could intervene… The global standing of the United States could be diminished. Americans could become more polarized,” commissioners said.
The report said there needs to be a renewed and sustained commitment by the United States to a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace on all fronts: Lebanon, Syria and Bush’s June 2002 commitment to a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine.
More than three-and-a-half years after the March 2003 invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, about 140,000 American troops remain in Iraq fighting an insurgency and trying to stop sectarian strife between Shiites and Sunnis.
The conflict has lasted longer than U.S. involvement in World War Two and has killed more than 2,900 American troops.
Ethnic fighting has killed thousands of Iraqis, raising debate over whether the country has descended into civil war and whether the U.S.-backed government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki can stem the carnage.
Bush has been under added political pressure to change course in Iraq since the November 7 elections when voters, who had soured on the war, ended Republican control of Congress.
The president, who was briefed on the report on Tuesday, has said he will listen to the group’s ideas but the White House said it doubted the panel’s five Republicans and five Democrats would provide a “magic bullet.”
Robert Gates, a former CIA director and commission member until Bush nominated him last month to replace Donald Rumsfeld as defense secretary, said the United States was not winning in Iraq and dismissed the prospect of quick solutions.
‘No new ideas’
“It’s my impression that, frankly, there are no new ideas on Iraq,” Gates told his Senate confirmation hearing.
Still, the group led by Republican former Secretary of State James Baker and former Democratic Rep.
Lee Hamilton of Indiana is expected to influence the debate over the war because its members were unanimous in their advice.
Sources familiar with the group’s deliberations said the report would recommend the U.S. military shift away from combat and toward a supp ort role in Iraq over the next year
or so.
It is also expected to call for a regional conference on stabilizing Iraq that could lead to direct U.S. talks with Iran and Syria, an option that the White House has opposed.
Pulling back combat forces to focus on providing training, advice, logistics and intelligence would still leave tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers in Iraq.
Bush has given little sign he will contemplate any quick exit from Iraq, saying repeatedly that U.S. forces would stay until the job is done.
“It’s in our interests to help liberty prevail in the Middle East, starting with Iraq.
And that’s why this business about graceful exit simply has no realism to it at all,” Bush said after he met Maliki in Jordan last week. “We’ll be in Iraq until the job is complete.”
The White House has sought to blunt the impact of the Iraq Study Group’s work by conducting its own review of the war. Bush aides have said he is likely to take weeks rather than months to decide how and whether to change his policy.
End Reuters Article from Haaretz
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