blog.Tribulationperiod.com

Tahadiyeh (Lull) Has Purpose

The Islamic Mugawama Doctrine

Only allows for short bursts of Peace,

Giving the power for its Implementation,

Causing enemy future casualties to Increase.

Producing the Justification for Establishing a Lull!

Islam has learned war weakness of US and Israel,

Growing number of body bags cause them to end it!

A Lull allows uninterrupted Hizbullah-Hamas Buildups!

Later lulls produce a greater number of Enemy Bodies!

July 9, 2008

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

The tahadiyeh (lull) in Israeli attacks against Hizbullah and Hamas will eventually lead to an initial defeat of the Israelis, and their flight into the Negev fortress, which was originally selected as their emergency war contingency area immediate after they became a nation in 1948.

Every nation has a war contingency plan. And, the smaller the country, the more imperative is the requirement for a detailed war contingency evacuation plan.

Israel began to formulate, plan, and build her evacuation area in the early fifties. She chose the only reasonable zone, the Negev wilderness. The Negev comprises more than one-third of the total land area of Israel, beginning just north of Beersheba, and extending all the way southward to the Gulf of Aqaba.

Why was the Negev the only reasonable area? From the historical prospective, the majority of Israel’s major conquerors have come down from the north.

Even Nebuchadnezzar, whose great empire began to the east of Israel in Babylonia, first went northwest through southern Syria to eventually attack Israel from the north.

Once Israel had signed a peace treaty with Egypt, and then with Jordan, it became evident to her political and military leaders, that they had been correct in selecting the Negev. At present, it appears very unlikely that an attack will be made against Israel from any zone other than the Syria-Lebanon area. Some minister, no one knows who, during the early part of the last century, visited Petra in Jordan, and formed an erroneous opinion, which has become very popular among many teachers of prophecy.

Whoever he was, his military training was sadly lacking, for he looked Petra over, and decided it would make a great defensive position for Israel to occupy, that is, if she ever had to flee her homeland. As a graduate of a military academy, and a retiree from the USAF-NSA,

I can assure you, Petra is the worst possible place to evacuate the survivors of a successful Arab attack against Israel. I doubt if the one who first advanced this idea actually walked all the way through Petra’s narrow northern entrance and then continued to walk out on the vast open plain to the southwest. Petra may have been a great place to defend in biblical times with the weaponry of those days, but it would be impossible to defend today.But there are other compelling reasons why Israel would never flee to Petra. There are no natural water sources in that area, and water collection by its ingenious ancient inhabitants from desert thunderstorms was never able to support a population of more than 20,000.

And food production in the soil horizons of this area could never support the evacuation of one-third of Israel’s population. It is also a certainty that the modern day occupants of Jordan would not offer to help Israel escape the Antichrist. But the belief that Israel will flee to Petra has become so popularized by many prominent ministers, it makes it very difficult to dissuade most followers of prophetic events. However, the fact that Israel has spent billions and billions of dollars turning the Negev into the most fortified, best camouflaged, zone on the earth, gives me the assurance that this is the place the woman Israel, who is described as going into the wilderness in the 12th Chapter of Revelation, will soon end up for the last three and one-half years of the tribulation period.

Begin Excerpts from Middle East Strategy at Harvard Olim Insitute

Weatherhead Center for International Affairs

Learning from Hezbollah

December 22, 2007

By MESH

From Andrew Exum

What political and military strength Hezbollah enjoys is largely rooted in the some 1.4 million Lebanese Shia who comprise their constituency—and the geography of southern Lebanon that has enabled Hezbollah to mount, first, a successful guerrilla campaign against Israel and, in 2006, a successful conventional campaign. We study Hezbollah, rather, because long before the 2006 Lebanon War in which they were widely considered to have been the victors, Hezbollah has served as a model for other guerrilla groups

—groups which very well may meet the U.S. military in armed conflicts.

Hezbollah’s model of “resistance” (Arabic, muqawama) has led to a phenomenon journalist Ehud Ya’ari describes as the “Muqawama Doctrine.”

From a policy perspective, the questions we Americans must ask about Hezbollah are much different than the questions asked by Israelis, for whom Hezbollah has proven to be a direct, capable and resilient military adversary. Amir Kulick’s analysis of Hezbollah’s military posture before and after the 2006 Lebanon War is a good example of an Israeli seeking to understand an organization

that is, for Israel, both a declared and actual adversary. The things about Hezbollah that worry us, as Americans, are different and perhaps more abstract. My own concerns, which I will outline below, fall into two categories: tactical and strategic.

Tactically, Hezbollah’s performance throughout the 1990s and in the 2006 war raises three red flags for U.S. military professionals. Unlike most other Arab armies since 1948, Hezbollah demonstrates a high proficiency in the maintenance and employment of its weapons systems, Hezbollah performs well in small-unit light infantry operations, and Hezbollah uses a decentralized command structure that allows its subordinate leaders to exercise a high degree of initiative on the battlefield.

This last characteristic is the most important—and directly related to Hezbollah’s successes in small-unit combat. As Ken Pollack and others have noted, in previous wars against Arab militaries, Israeli tactical leaders grew accustomed to platoon leaders and company commanders in, say, the Egyptian Army, who could be expected to react ponderously to rapidly changing battlefield dynamics due to the degree to which they operated in highly centralized command structures—organizations in which even the smallest tactical decisions required approval from above.

This allowed Israeli tactical leaders to get inside their counterparts’ “OODA Loops.” The OODA Loop—Orient, Observe, Decide, Act—is the process, coined by John Boyd, by which military leaders make decisions. The small-unit leader with a quicker decision-making process—or smaller OODA Loop—is at a competitive advantage against his opposite number. Because Hezbollah small-unit leaders, with freedom to make decisions quicker than their peers in

the armies of Arab states, can make decisions at a speed roughly equivalent to their opposite numbers in IDF tactical units, they are a much more difficult adversary on the battlefield than Egyptian tank commanders or infantry platoon leaders in wars past.

Similarly, if other guerrilla groups successfully emulate Hezbollah’s model, they too will be much more difficult adversaries on the battlefield for the U.S. military than the Iraqi Army in 1991 or 2003.

[…..]

There are several reasons making the fantasy that Hezbollah will ever give up its arms unlikely. The first—and the most understandable—is that the Shia who make up Hezbollah’s constituency think giving up their arms means giving up the hard-won seat at Beirut’s political table earned over the past three decades. The Shia of Lebanon are the country’s historical underclass, and the Shia fear a return to the days when their concerns were largely forgotten by the central government. Without the arms of Hezbollah, they argue, no one in Beirut will care about the concerns of the Shia living in the south, the Bekaa Valley, and the suburbs of Beirut.

The second reason why Hezbollah cannot give up its arms, though, is because so many of the young men who join the organization join to fight. These young men are lured by the promise of fighting Israel, and Hezbollah must worry that if they were to abandon their military campaign against Israel, these young men would simply split from the organization in the same way that so many of the Amal militia’s gunmen left for Hezbollah in the early 1980s. Thus, in order to keep these young men of arms under the same big tent as the rest of the organization, it is necessary to continue some form of armed conflict against Israel.

[…..]

A cult of resistance has developed within Hezbollah, one that makes it very difficult for the organization to ever be at peace. A similar cult of arms exists in the U.S. Marine Corps or the U.S. Army’s light infantry units, of course, but should the U.S. ever be at peace, there is little worry the soldiers and Marines will revolt and form their own splinter organization. That is the worry within Hezbollah, and the way in which violence against Israel has become a necessary part of the organization’s psyche is worrying not only for Israel but also for the Lebanese—both those aligned with Hezbollah and those opposed.

From the perspective of an American, the worry is that this cult of resistance will spread to other guerrilla groups in the region, making peace impossible. There are those within Hezbollah and organizations like Hamas who no doubt argue for a more peaceful track toward coexistence. But coexistence is impossible as long as the cult of resistance precludes it.

Posted in Andrew Exum, Counterinsurgency, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel

Begin Jerusalem Post Excerpt

Analysis: Fortress Gaza

July 2, 2008

JONATHAN SPYER , THE JERUSALEM POST

Since the agreement on the tahadiyeh (lull) was reached between Hamas and Israel on June 19, the border crossings between Israel and Gaza have already been closed six times in response to Palestinian rocket fire.

Israeli officials acknowledge that none of these attacks was carried out by Hamas. Hamas, nevertheless, is keeping itself busy.

The organization’s military wing is putting in place preparations based on a comprehensive strategy for facing an expected eventual large IDF operation into Gaza.

Hamas gunmen are training extensively to play their allotted roles within this strategy.

The model for Hamas is Hizbullah’s preparations for and conduct of the Second Lebanon War in 2006. The evidence suggests that Hamas is using its uncontested control in Gaza to effect a qualitative change in its abilities and ambitions.

Hamas’s strategy derives at the highest level from the group’s muqawama (resistance) doctrine. According to this view, Israel’s Achilles’ heel is its inability to absorb large numbers of military and civilian casualties. Hamas believes Israel’s will can be broken through attrition and a steady toll of unexpectedly high numbers of both military and civilian casualties.

In the event of a major IDF incursion into Gaza, Hamas would seek to maintain a steady rain of rockets on Israeli communities around the Strip and to break the sense of armored and air invulnerability hitherto enjoyed by Israeli forces engaging with its fighters. Hamas would of course also try to inflict steady losses of 4 to 10 casualties per day on IDF’s ground forces during the fighting. Looking to the 2006 model, the movement’s planners believe that achieving these goals could be sufficient to break Israel’s will.

To make this possible, Hamas is feverishly training as well as acquiring relevant weapons systems – of a type far superior in quality to those previously associated with the organization.

The weapons systems on which Hamas is thought to be currently training in the Gaza Strip include a wire-guided anti-tank missile, probably the AT-3 Sagger, and additional anti-tank guided missiles: the AT-4 Spigot, the tripod-fired AT-5 Spandrel and the shoulder-fired AT-14 Spriggan – all useful against armor. All these systems have ranges of several kilometers.

In addition, Hamas is thought to have brought into Gaza large numbers of RPG-29 Vampir handheld anti-tank grenade launchers with a range of 500 meters, which are capable of penetrating reactive armor and are considered far superior to the RPG 7 systems used by the movement in the past.

Hamas is also developing improvised explosive devices, i.e. bombs. The organization possesses an Iranian-developed, locally-produced system known as the Shawaz explosively-formed penetrator that it says can penetrate 20 cm. of steel. Hamas also claims to possess air defense missiles, though no information could be obtained on their nature or the veracity of the claim. Imports from Iran and Syria and local production are all playing a role in the movement’s development of its arsenal.

In addition to arming Gaza to the teeth, Hamas is recruiting fresh fighters. Once again, the model is Hizbullah, and the intention appears to be to develop a force part-way between a regular army and a guerrilla force, of the type developed under Iranian tutelage by the Shi’ite Lebanese group.

Extensive recruitment has been taking place in the past month. New fighters have been accepted to both the Izzadin Kassam Brigades – Hamas’s long-standing military wing, and to the Executive Force – the newer group created since Hamas’s election victory in January 2006.

The latter force played the key role in Hamas’s rout of Fatah in its 2007 coup. Hamas claims to have around 20,000 men under arms, though some sources suggest that the number may be higher. Again, both Iran and Syria are thought to be playing a role in providing advanced training to cadres from both of these organizations: around 1,000 Hamas men are thought to have trained in one of these countries in the last months.

What does Hamas’s attempt to create “Fortress Gaza” mean? Its political leaders have consolidated their rule internally vis-à-vis other Palestinian forces. They are thought to face a certain problem from yet more radical Sunni Islamist currents among both the rank and file fighters and commanders of their own military organizations.

But for the moment, with no serious internal challenge, Hamas is digging in.

The Hamas rulers believe that Israelis want only peace and quiet, which makes them both vulnerable and deterrable. Thus, Hamas is seeking to create a solid shield around its Gaza fiefdom that can be turned into a weapon of attack at a time and situation of its choosing.

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The Biblical Prophecy of the Final Middle East War

Is most assuredly headed for fulfillment at a rapid Rate

Even if the Bible had nothing to say about the coming Battle

It is readily apparent that a major conflict is now about to Occur

July 9, 2008

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

The actions of the radical Islamic nations and the many terrorist groups they support make it undeniable that a major war will eventually occur in the Middle East. The Bible has indicated for centuries that would be the case, and provides a detailed description of

the sequence of events which will be associated with the three and one-half years of the great tribulation associated with it. The one detail the Bible, and the leaders of the nations involved in it omit, is WHEN the final three and one half years will specifically begin. Any attempt to answer this question must of necessity be labeled OPINION, no more and no less. I do have an OPINION. Based on a multiplicity of factors now occurring, taking into account how the Bible indicated the war would start, I believe it will begin at some point in time between 2010 and 2015 and will last some three and one-half years, finally culminating in one great final battle of Armageddon, at which time Christ will appear at his 2nd Advent.

I believe Christ is the stone cut out of the mountain in Daniel 2:45, and is pictured returning at his Second Advent to bring in his Kingdom.

Of course, the toes on Daniel’s statue are ten Islamic ‘wild’ toes of Ishmael, which have always had trouble holding together long enough to defeat Israel, but they finally will do it in the near future. At the end of their three and one-half success under Antichrist, Christ will return to crush these ten kings and the Caliph Antichrist who rules them, and the King who was rejected by his own people on his First Advent, will establish a Kingdom of Righteousness, which will last on this present earth for a thousand years.

Daniel 2:42-45 – And as the toes of the feet were part of iron, and part of clay, so the kingdom shall be partly strong, and partly broken. [43] And whereas thou sawest iron mixed with miry clay, they shall mingle themselves with the seed of men: but they shall not cleave one to another, even as iron is not mixed with clay. [44] And in the days of these kings shall the God of heaven set up a kingdom, which shall never be destroyed: and the kingdom shall not be left to other people, but it shall break in pieces and consume all these kingdoms, and it shall stand for ever. [45] Forasmuch as thou sawest that the stone was cut out of the mountain without hands, and that it brake in pieces the iron, the brass, the clay, the silver, and the gold; the great God hath made known to the king what shall come to pass hereafter: and the dream is certain, and the interpretation thereof sure.

The same scenario is pictured by Daniel using horns in Daniel 7:24-27.

Daniel 7:24-27 – And the ten horns out of this kingdom are ten kings that shall arise: and another shall rise after them; and he shall be diverse from the first, and he shall subdue three kings. [25] And he shall speak great words against the most High, and shall wear out the saints of the most High, and think to change times and laws: and they shall be given into his hand until a time and times and the dividing of time. [26] But the judgment shall sit, and they shall take away his dominion, to consume and to destroy it unto the end. [27] And the kingdom and dominion, and the greatness of the kingdom under the whole heaven, shall be given to the people of the saints of the most High, whose kingdom is an everlasting kingdom, and all dominions shall serve and obey him.

I remember how it was before Hitler attacked Poland in 1939. A “peace at any price” group kept crying out for more diplomacy. The hawks, who were very small in number, said war was inevitable, so let’s join with the British and fight against this ungodly monster. But most of the American population just sat still and hoped it would all go away, and everything would be fine. I was totally in favor of what the first Bush did in Iraq, namely blow the devil out of Saddam’s army with primarily air power, and them immediately get out. Afterwards many of my peers said the first Bush should have stayed and finished the job, but I have never been in favor of trying to establish a democracy in Iraq, and I have been quite vocal in print as to why it will never work before the Second Advent. I wanted us to go in, get Saddam Hussein, and get out! Then let the Kurds, Sunnis, Shiites, Iranians, Syrians, Turks, and Nerds fight it out for the country. Everyone kept crying, “We don’t want to destabilize the Middle East!” Hey, that is just what was needed – It is better they fight each other rather than Israel and the United States!

At present, the Iraqi government is talking about a timetable for the full withdrawal of American troops from Iraq for the first time. The great President Ahmadinejad of Iran is threatening out of one side of his vile mouth while saying there will not be a war out of the other side. Isl amic Jih

ad, al Qaeda, and a few of the wilder terrorist groups seem to be the only ones doing the really violent dirty work at the present time. For the first time, I can see a conspiracy of false peace forming behind the scenes across the Middle East.

This Conspiracy is being used to lull Israel and the United States into a false sense of security before Islam moves in for the kill. I am growing more and more confident of my guesstimate that the final war of this Gentile Age will begin at some point in time between 2010 and 2015. All the horns and toes of Daniel are falling into place. We are not too far away from a vicious Jihad attack against Israel by Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Morocco, Algeria, Turkey, Tunisia, Libya, and Ethiopia.

I am including a rather large number of excerpts which seen to stand in contradiction to one another. I expect this sort of confused rhe toric

to continue right on up to the time the initial attack is launched against the nation of Israel. However, behind all the saber rattling, rumors of wars and attacks, vicious threats, diplomatic negotiations, political rhetoric, and lying tragic comedy, I do expect a sufficient lull in the Middle East activity, which will allow the forces of Islam, in a conspiracy mode, to ready themselves to attempt to wipe Israel off the face of the map.

Begin Excerpt from BBC News

Iran leader plays down war talk

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has played down the threat of an armed conflict between his country and the United States or Israel.

“I assure you… there won’t be any war in the future,” he said in Malaysia.

Earlier, an aide to Iran’s supreme leader said Tehran would strike Israel or the US navy in the Gulf if it was attacked over its nuclear programme.

The comments come amid reports of possible Israeli or US plans to strike Iran’ s nuclear facilitie

s.

Tehran denies Western claims that it is seeking to build a nuclear weapon.

It has repeatedly rejected demands to halt enriching uranium, which can be used as fuel for power plants – and as material for weapons if refined to a greater degree.

The European Union imposed new sanctions on Iran in June.

But it has offered a package of incentives to persuade Iran to suspend uranium enrichment.

Iran has said it is prepared to negotiate with major world powers, but insisted the talks had to address Iran’s nuclear rights.

‘Greatest threat’

President Ahmadinejad was speaking through an interpreter at the end of a summit of the D8 Islamic developing nations in Malaysia’s capital, Kuala Lumpur.

He said he believed that people in America would not let President George W Bush authorize an attack on Iran because it would be “political suicide”. “The economic, political and military situation will not let Mr Bush do that,” he said.

But Mr Ahmadinejad warned that Iran was ready to defend itself, saying that “the greatest threat in the Middle East and the whole world… is the United States’ intervention in other countries”.

He also suggested that Iran would not launch any attack on Israel – America’s ally in the Middle East.

“There is no need for any measures by the Iranian people” to bring about the end of the “Zionist regime” in Israel, Mr Ahmadinejad said.

And asked if he objected to the government of Israel or Jewish people, he said that “creating an objection against the Zionists doesn’t mean that there are objections against the Jewish”.

He added that Jews lived in Iran and were represented in the country’s parliament.

Mr Ahmadinejad’s comments came after he was asked to clarify the statement that he wanted to “destroy” Israel.

‘Jihad and martyrdom’

On Monday, a senior Iranian official warned that Tehran would retaliate if attacked by the US or Israel over its nuclear programme.

“The first US shot on Iran would set the United States’ vital interests in the world on fire,” Ali Shirazi, an aide to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was quoted as saying

by Iranian news agencies.

“Tel Aviv and the US fleet in the Persian Gulf would be the targets that would be set on fire,” he said.

“The Zionist regime is pressuring White House officials to attack Iran. If they commit such a stupidity, Tel Aviv and US shipping in the Persian Gulf will be Iran’s first targets and they will be burned in Iran’s crushing response.

“The Iranian nation will never accept bullying.

The Iranian nation is a nation of believers which believes in jihad and martyrdom. No army in the world can confront it,” Mr Shirazi said.

Last week, the top US military officer said opening up a new front in the Middle East – after Iraq and Afghanistan – would be “extremely stressful” for US forces.

Adm Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was commenting on the likelihood of US or Israeli military action over Iran’s nuclear programme.

President Bush has maintained that all options are on the table but

that military action against Iran will not be his first choice.

End Story from BBC NEWS:

Begin Excerpt from Jerusalem Post News

‘Israel, US wouldn’t dare attack Iran’

July 7, 2008

JPost.com Staff , THE JERUSALEM POST

Israel and the US would not dare to attack Iran, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying in an interview with a Malaysian media outlet on Monday.

Iran’s official news agency, IRNA, reported that Ahmadinejad spoke in Kuala Lumpar, where he is to attend the sixth Summit of the Eight Islamic Developing Countries (D8).

“Not only the US and Israel, but a hundred others like them cannot attack Iran and they know it themselves,” the Iranian president was quoted as saying.

He went on to say that US President George W. Bush “has many satanic and inhuman wishes, including confrontation with Iran,” and that “none of his wishes have come true.”

“They know the Iranian nation and are aware that they cannot talk to us with the language of force and threats. They must give in to the will of the Iranian nation,” he added.

Two Excerpts from Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs – Daily Alert

July 4, 2008

Begin Haaretz Excerpt 1

Israel Faces Missile Fire from Syria, Iran, and Hizbullah

Yossi Melman

Maj.-Gen. (res.) Eitan Ben Eliahu, commander of the Israel Air Force from 1996 to 2000, this week surveyed the changes in Israel’s national security doctrine amid the changing nature of wars at a meeting of the Israel Missile Defense Association. Ben Eliahu estimates that in the next war, Syria and Iran might launch between 250 and 300 long-range missiles at Israel (Shahab and Scud missiles) and another 5,000 short-range missiles (mainly from Hizbullah in Lebanon).

To intercept a single long-range missile, one needs an average of two intercepting missiles and between 500 and 700 missiles in all. In addition, Israel must keep another 200 intercepting missiles in reserve. To destroy the short-range missiles, Israel will need mainly ground forces. And above all Israel must grant high priority to development methods for confronting the chemical and nuclear threat.

(Ha’aretz)

Begin Haaretz Excerpt 2

U.S. Admiral: Iran Likely to Attack Israel

Amir Oren

In an article entitled “Maritime Strategy in an Age of Blood and Belief” in the U.S. Naval Institute’s monthly Proceedings, Adm. James Winnefeld, commander of the U.S. Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean, describes the possibility of an offensive barrage of ballistic missiles fired from Iran against Israel as being “by far the most likely employment of ballistic missiles in the world today, and it demands our immediate attention in the event of a need for a U.S. or NATO response.” In recent years, the missile boats of the Sixth Fleet practiced intercepting Shahab-3 missiles from Iran aimed at Israel, along with the Arrow batteries of the Israel Air Force and U.S. and Israeli batteries of Patriot missiles. (Ha’aretz)

Begin DEBKAfile Excerpt

Iran’s chief of staff expands threat of Strait of Hormuz closure

DEBKAfile Special Report

July 5, 2008, 1:14 PM (GMT+02:00)

Chief of staff Maj. Gen. Hasan Firuzabadi said Saturday, July, 5, Iran’s strategy is to keep the Strait of Hormuz in “southern Iran” open, but “if the country’s interests are jeopardized in the region, we will not let any ship pass through.”

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that this statement, quoted by the official IRNA agency, enlarges on earlier threats by the IRGC commander Ali Jafari that the waterway would be closed if Iran was attacked. Iran’s “strategic interests in the region” cited now by Firuzabadi could extend to attacks on its allies and terrorist arms, Syria, Hizballah or Hamas.

It is in keeping with Iran’s refusal to give up uranium enrichment in its reply to the six-power proposals for ending the nuclear standoff.

Iran offered nothing more than negotiations, its standard gambit for spinning out time to achieve progress on its nuclear bomb program.

The latest drumbeat from Tehran also posed a fresh challenge to Washington after Adm. Mike Mullen, Chairman of US Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned on July 2 that the US would not let Iran block the strategic waterway through which 40 percent of the world’s oil supplies are transported.

The New York Times Saturday quoted Tehran as stating: “The time for negotiations from the condescending position of inequality has come to an end,” in its response to the incentives package offered by the five UN Security Council members plus Germany. The letter made no reference to the proposal of preliminary talks to start with a mutual six-week “freeze” both on a fourth round of UN Security Council sanctions and on the expansion of Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

Further hardening its position, Tehran’s reply to the proposals presented last month by Europeam Union foreign executive Javier Solana denounces such sanctions as “illegal.” Chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili was named to lead the delegation in comprehensive negotiations.

By failing to address the “freeze-for-freeze” approach, in which high hopes of a more accommodating Iranian approach had been pinned, Tehran has put an end to the optimistic intimations emanating from Washington, Europe and Israeli officials in the last two weeks. Some American sources were certain that a closed Iranian parliamentary conference Monday, June 30, had endorsed the mutual freeze offer.

DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources add: The Iranian reply to Solana demonstrates that Tehran was not intimidated by the implied threats of an imminent US and/or Israel attack on its nuclear facilities published in the last two weeks; neither is Iran deterred from continuing to enrich uranium by the prospect of more sanctions. Even in accepting the offer of negotiations, the Islamic Republic stiffly denies any world power the right to strike a “condescending position.”

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Bashar Assad Waiting for a Man Filled with Words

President Bush was to Him an Uncompromising Nerd

If our next President happens to be a free chirping Bird

An Arrangement May Be Worked Out Bordering On Absurd

Bush made Assad a deal and His response was as if Unheard

And offered the Palestinians a roadmap of peace they Deferred

Islamic gang is Waiting for a President Who Will come and Confer

And Presidential candidate Obama’s tongue moves so fast its a Blur

July 8, 2008

I don’t think Bashar Assad is the only radical Islamic leader waiting to see who is elected. I suspect all the radical regimes are hoping Obama will be the next U.S. President, because they love to tall, talk, talk while their enemies talk themselves to death. The fanatics definitely don’t want McCain in office.

They do not want a war vet who understands them and the Islamic character of deceit and treachery. They would be delighted to have a young inexperienced American President who came from their own culture, rather than one with an American military sort of background.

Begin YNet News Excerpt

July 7, 2008

Assad: No peace until after Bush

Syrian president sees little chances for direct talks with Israel during current US president’s term. ‘Frankly, we do not think that the current American administration is capable of making peace,

‘ says Assad

Reuters

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has told a French newspaper his country is unlikely to enter direct peace talks with Israel while US President George W. Bush is in office.

However, in an interview published on the web site

of Le Figaro daily on Monday, Assad said he was betting that the next US leader would get more involved in the peace process.

Assad said Syria and Israel were looking for common ground to start face-to-face negotiations, adding that it was vital to find the right country to mediate such talks.

“The most important thing in direct negotiations is who sponsors them,” Assad told Le Figaro, saying the United States had an essential role to play.

“Frankly, we do not think that the current American administration is capable of making peace. It doesn’t have either the will or the vision and it only has a few months left,” he said.

“When we have established a common foundation (for negotiations) at indirect talks with Israel , perhaps we could give some trump cards to the new administration to make it get more involved,” he added.

“We are betting on the next president and his administration,” he said.

Begin Nation Review Excerpt

Bush Offered Palestinians a State; They Said No

Clifford D. May (National Review)

Six years ago, on June 24, 2002, President Bush announced that the U.S. would support the creation of a Palestinian state.

His only condition was that Palestinians first choose “leaders not compromised by terror.” He asked also that they “confront corruption,” and “build a practicing democracy based on tolerance and liberty.”

In 2006, elections were held in Gaza and the West Bank.

Hamas, a terrorist organization, declared itself a political party and won.

In 2007, Hamas launched a wave of violence against rival Fatah security forces. Since then, Hamas has been unchallenged in Gaza and no one talks of new elections or civil rights.

Nor has Hamas attempted to build an economic base.

Instead, it turned to Iran’s rulers for money and guidance – and then complained that Palestinians were living in squalor because they weren’t receiving sufficient funds from the U.S. and Europe.

Hamas rains missiles on Israeli towns, sends terrorists into Israel on killing and kidnapping missions, and assigns suicide-bombers to blow up the few border crossings with Israel. Then Hamas complains that Israel is not delivering as much food, medicine, gasoline, and electricity as Palestinians require.

President Bush believed that Palestinians wanted a state to call their own – and that they wanted that more than they wanted the destruction of the Jewish state next door. In 2002 Bush said: “If liberty can blossom in the rocky soil of the West Bank and Gaza, it will inspire millions of men and women around the globe….This moment is…a test to show who is serious about peace

and who is not.”

He was right. It was a test. And now it’s time to be candid about the results. Israelis, Americans, and Europeans are serious about peace. The enemies of Israelis, Americans, and European are serious about defeating Israelis, Americans, and Europeans.

The writer is president of the Foundation for Defense

of Democracies.

End National Review Excerpt

It is certainly no secret that both Syria and Iran, along with all their associated terrorist groups, are hoping for an American leader they can talk to death before they kill his people. I consider Obama to be a man possessed of self-delusion. He is just the one they want to talk, talk, talk, to death, while they prepare to kill all the Israelis.

Begin New York Sun Excerpt from Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs – Daily Akert

Iran Diplomacy an Exercise in Self-Delusion

Benny Avni

July 8, 2008

The West’s current diplomatic strategy – offering endless incentives to Iran, hoping it will change its behavior – is little more than an exercise in self-delusion.

Western diplomats reportedly are “disappointed” at Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki’s response to the most recent incentive package that EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana offered to Iran. Reading Solana’s package of benefits, Israel’s former deputy defense minister, Ephraim Sneh, told me, “I thought it was being offered to Sweden or Norway,” not a terrorist regime that has thumbed its nose at UN Security Council resolutions. “Iran will fool the West to buy time, and the West will allow itself to be fooled.” (New York Sun)

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from which we extracted it.

THE SHAM OF A TRUE MIDDLE EAST PEACE

SYRIA HAS NOW ADOPTED AN IRANIAN TACTIC

AND HAMAS’S TRUCE IS ALSO NOW EMPLOYING IT

KEEP TALKING WHILE GETTING READY TO KILL THEM

ASSAD WILL WAIT FOR BARACK OBAMA TO TALK TO HIM

July 8, 2008

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Most of the “crazies” in the Middle East such as Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, and Hamas are stalling conflict while preparing for a future major war in the Middle East, which I am guessing will occur at some point in time between 2010 and 2015. Islamic Jihad and a few of the other super duper crazies are not playing the game. Don’t be surprised if they keep up this process until the coming U.S. Presidential elections, hoping good ole Barack Obama will get in.

There is no way under heaven Syria will ever break away from Iran. It is tied to Iran like a sacrificial animal is bound to the altar by strong cords. Now Israel is finally being lulled by talk into a false security of “peace and safety.” I have waited for this for more than 30 years. Syria made its final chose of alignment some time ago.

I wrote about it in the following Archive Prophecy Update four years ago.

SPECIAL PROPHECY UPDATE NUMBER 161C

March 5, 2004

Syria Makes a Very Bad Choice

I have always believed and taught that the most likely part of the old Roman Empire, which would foster the rise of the Antichrist, would be Syria. Syria has been hanging suspended between two choices: (1) Turn toward the United States in order to avoid sanctions, and to gain support from the western world in a war on terror, or, (2) Turn toward Iran to make an alliance and continue to give support to all the terrorist groups. On February 28 Syria apparently made its choice. The Iranian Defense Minister, Admiral Ali Shamkhani, came to Damascus and signed a new military pact with the Syrian Defense Minister, General Mustufa Tias. I believe this is a clear sign that President Assad has made his choice to put his trust in an Iran-Syria Axis to protect his administration from a coup by terrorist groups in his own country. President Assad has been active recently in communications with Wash

ington to see what they would give him in the way of security if he should choose to give up sponsoring the many terrorist group offices in Syria, and Hizbollah in Lebanon. Really, he did not have much of a choice. Had he turned pro-west and resisted the terrorist groups, his regime would have been overthrown in a matter of weeks. Syria’s new military pact with Iran likely contains an Iranian promise to invest in additional long range Scud-C missiles, now in mass production at Syria’s underground missile facility near Hamah,

which is somewhat ironic in that the northern extent of Israel’s territory, after it defeats Syria at the end of the tribulation period, will extend to Hamah. The biblical name for Hamah is Hamath.

Ezekiel 47:17 – And the border from the sea shall be Hazar-enan, the border of Damascus, and the north northward, and the border of Hamath. And this is the north side.

Genesis 15:18 – In the same day the Lord made a covenant with Abram, saying, Unto thy seed have I given this land, from the river of Egypt unto the great river, the river Euphrates:

Ezekiel 47:19 – And the south side southward, from Tamar even to the waters of strife in Kadesh, the river to the great sea. And this is the south side southward.

If you want to envision the size of the Abrahamic Land Grant promised to the descendants of Abraham through Jacob (Israel), then go southwest from the southernmost tip of the Gaza Strip along the coastline of the Mediterranean 35 miles and place a point on the shoreline. Then draw a line directly east from that point until you hit the Euphrates River of Iraq. That is the southern border of the land God promised to the seed of Abraham through his grandson, the man whom God renamed Israel, the man Jacob, the son of Isaac, the promised seed God gave through Sarah. The northern border of the land grant may be visualized by finding Hamah or Hama in north central Syria, and then drawing an east-west line through it, which ends on the Mediterranean to the west, and on the Euphrates River to the east. This is the northern border of Abraham’s God given Land Grant. As you can see, this is a very large tract of land, 95 percent of which is occupied by descendants of Abraham through Ishmael’s twelve sons, the six sons of Abraham by Keturah, and Moab and Ammon, the two sons of Abraham’s nephew Lot by his own daughters. They are identified generally as Arabs, and some 95 percent of them are of the Islamic faith. Since they believe that the promises of God come through Abraham’s son Ishmael through Hagar the Egyptian, Sarah’s handmaiden, you can see the basic reason for the hatred between Arabs and Jews that has only intensified with the passage of the centuries (See Prophecy Updates 67 and 68 in the Archives).

I am confident that the new military pact will undoubtedly transfer the information necessary for the manufacture of the advanced Shihab-3 missile in Syria, as well as the financing for greater production of long-range artillery and ammunition.

The United States and Europe wanted Syria to follow Libya’s lead, but Bashar Assad was really in no political position to do so without being overthrown by the terrorist elements in his own country.

There were four things the United States wanted Syria to give up.

(1) Scrap your long-range missile program.

(2) Scrap your WMD program.

(3) Drive all the terrorist groups out of Syria.

(4) Stop supporting Hizbollah in Lebanon.

I feel confident it was a choice Bashar Assad simply could not make. Iran and Syria are of the same mind on these four issues. Had Syria chosen to do those four things, it would have cut Iran’s flow of weaponry and the movement of terrorists to Hizbollah. Syria was left without any military backup with the fall of Iraq, so Assad has chosen to shore up and expand its existing ties with Iran, and create new military ties with them for a joint defense against the west. The strong showing by the radical Shiite hardliners in Iran’s elections last month was a strong element that Assad considered in making his choice. Iranian Shiites will continue to have a direct pipeline via Damascus airport for massive shipments of military hardware to the large Hizbollah terrorist army, which it has supported in southern Lebanon for years, as have the Syrians.

End Archive Prophecy Update 161C

The conflict between the two articles which follow is a perfect example of the Iranian ploy of “keep them talking while you are preparing to kill them.”

Begin DEBKAfile Excerpt

Iran, Syria sign secret new intelligence cooperation accord

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

July 6, 2008, 1:20 PM (GMT+02:00)

Under the intelligence cooperation agreement Iran and Syria signed secretly in Tehran on June 27, thousands of Syrian intelligence and police officers will receive special training in Iran, DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report.

It was signed at the end of an unpublicized five-day visit to Tehran of Syria’s clandestine and security service chiefs headed by Gen. Fouad Sultan, superintendent of internal security. His opposite number was the director of the Iranian interior ministry’s external affairs department Ahmed Hosseini.

The accord they concluded is a crucial element in the deepening strategic relationship between Tehran and Damascus. It belies the contention by French president Nicolas Sarkozy and prime minister Ehud Olmert, accepted also by Washington, that the Syrian regime is about to desert its close alliance with Tehran and embrace the West. On the strength of this false premise, Olmert is pressing forward along his peace track with Syria, and Sarkozy invited president Bashar Assad to be his guest of honor at the Bastille Day parade of July 14.

While secretly bolstering his partnership with Iran, Assad has no trouble spreading the illusion of his willingness for a turn to the West, especially when his propaganda effort is promoted by none other than former Israel foreign ministry official Alon Liyel.

Liyal, calling himself “an Israeli diplomat” asserted in an interview to the July 6 Sunday Times that Damascus would sever its strategic ties with Tehran, Hizballah and Hamas for substantial American military and economic aid and Israel’s renunciation of the Golan. All this would happen, the ex-official promised, on Assad’s behalf, after the change of presidents in Washington.

DEBKAfile’s sources report that Liyel spoke without authority or factual corroboration about Assad’s intentions. He omitted to mention the fact that the Assad regime would have acquired a facility to produce fuel for Iran’s nuclear weapons program, were it not for Israel’s pre-emptive strike in September 2007. He also forgot that Damascus has for years provided friendly hospitality for the headquarters of the most extremist Palestinian terrorist groups and shown no sign that he means to evict them.

Begin Jerusalem Post Article

Liel: Syria prepared to cut Iran ties

July 6, 2008

Jpost.com staff, mark weiss and ap , THE JERUSALEM POST

Syria is prepared to cut its ties with Iran if the US provides it with financial and military backing, former director general of the Foreign Ministry Alon Liel told The Sunday Telegraph.

According to Liel, who the paper said has been engaged in low-key “second track” discussions with Syrian representatives, Syrian President Bashar Assad was open to a deal which would weaken Iranian influence in the Middle East.

Liel said prospects of peace with Syria had increased, though a new US president may need to be elected before a deal could be reached.
“They are asking not only for the Golan Heights but a change in Washington that will break the Syrian isolation internationally,” said Liel. “But I also think they will not do it unless they are assured they have an alternative to Iran.”

Liel went on to say that “months” of negotiations

still lay ahead to bridge the gaps between the two sides. Nevertheless, progress has been reported on issues including borders and water.

“The Golan Heights is considered our Tuscany.

Israelis fell in love with the Golan – and it’s a very easy conflict for us.

That’s why it’s so difficult to convince Israel to withdraw,” Liel continued.

Meanwhile, Israeli officials have confirmed that Turkey will host a fourth round of indirect talks between Israel and Syria later this month.

Jerusalem officials have said that a real sign of progress would be when direct contacts began and Israel was ready to step up the level of negotiations. However, officials connected to the contacts did not expect Damascus to permit such direct talks this month.

Turkish mediators have been shuttling between the Syrian and Israeli delegations in Istanbul throughout three rounds of talks that began in May. No result has been made public.

Previously, Turkey had been holding contacts with the two countries, laying the groundwork for the indirect talks.

A Turkish government official said a fourth round of talks was scheduled for the end of July. That round would aim to get direct talks started, he said, but warned that it might still be early for a breakthrough.

Any agreement for direct negotiations between Syria and Israel would be a major victory for Turkey and help it proclaim a role as a major diplomatic player.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan said last week that Turkey aimed to bring “the sides together around a table for direct talks,” but warned that “progress will take time.”

“We are still at the beginning of the process,” he said.

Babacan said “there is hope for peace as long as there is political will and determination on both sides.”

“If these talks end positively, then this will definitely influence the climate in the Middle East and even in a larger geography,” he said.

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A Negev Rocket-Mortar Defense System

Successfully tested in the Negev Wilderness,

And Should Be Operationally Proficient In Israel

In 2010 as part of multi-layered defensive Systems!

July 7, 2008

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

The new 300 million dollar Anti-Rocket-Mortar system, developed by Israel Military Industry’s Advanced Defense System, has undergone successful testing at Ramon Air Force Base in the Negev wilderness.

It is forecast to reportedly be operational by 2010.

Ramon Air Force Base is the Negev Israeli Air Force base southwest of Beersheba, near the town of Mitzpe Ramon. It was built as the result of joint Israeli and US government funding.

It was part of the IAF’s massive redeployment out of its bases in the Sinai after the peninsula was handed over to Egypt following the 1978 Camp David Accords.

When Israel is eventually driven into the Negev by the forces of Islam, it will be able to hold the Negev from Beersheba southward approximately three and one-half years, and this new defensive system will be a part of its multi-layered defense systems during that period.

Israel has spent billions and billions of dollars preparing the Negev for the possibility of an evacuation of her population in the in the event of a sudden attack from the north. The Negev has been the central focus of Israel’s war contingency plan from the beginning. Her God put this thinking in the minds of her political and military leaders in the late forties,

and active preparation of the area began in the early fifties. Today, the Negev is the most cleverly camouflaged zone on the surface of the earth, and unless sky satellites had watched it being prepared, one would not suspect that numerous military installations were implanted in it. Even knowing where certain defense mechanisms were originally placed, it is now extremely difficult to spot them, even driving by them at ground level.

Thousands of tourists pass through the Negev and admire the beauty of her terrain from her roads, but her military capabilities are cleverly camouflaged on the surface, hidden beneath her, and concealed inside her mountains.

Active preparation of the Negev began in the early fifties. After the Six Day War of June, 1967, Israel poured her finances and efforts into the creation of a hidden fortress in the Negev wilderness. The Yom Kippur War of 1973 was followed by Israel quadrupling her military forces by 1980, and the bulk of this increase was placed in the vast Sinai. The peace treaty between Israel and Egypt led to the evacuation of this increase in men and equipment from the Sinai into the much smaller Negev.

This turned the already heavily fortified Negev into an impenetrable fortress.

By 1983 the Sinai IDF and equipment had been withdrawn into the Negev. The IDF packed up about 80 thousand tons of military equipment, same 3800 military vehicles, and 3 airfields, and moved it into the Negev. The Negev is about 20 percent the size of the Sinai.

By 1988 about 40 new military camps had been set up in the Negev.

By 1990 the Negev had been topographically transformed, at a fantastic expense, into an area no enemy would dare to attempt to penetrate. When Syria, assisted by troops from Iraq and Iran, secretly and very slowly smuggled in across her southern and western borders, attacks Israel from the north, then Israel will get to use her Negev wilderness for about 3 and ½ years. These three nations, because of the sharing of satellite information received from the Russians about the Negev, know all

about the military strength there and, because of this, will stop their southward push into Israel just north of Beersheva. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will be able to hold the Negev, and the woman Israel will stay there for the last 3 and ½ years of the tribulation period.

I Thessalonians 5:3,4 – For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape. [4] But ye, brethren, are not in darkness, that that day should overtake you as a thief.

Zechariah 13:8 – And it shall come to pass, that in all the land, saith the Lord, two parts therein shall be cut off and die; but the third shall be left therein.

Revelation 12:6 – And the woman fled into the wilderness, where she hath a place prepared of God, that they should feed her there a thousand two hundred and threescore days.

Daniel 7:25 – And he shall speak great words against the most High, and shall wear out the saints of the most High, and think to change times and laws: and they shall be given into his hand until a time and times and the dividing of time.

Begin Arutz Sheva Excerpt

Israel Tests New Missile Defense System – Success

4 Tammuz 5768, 07 July 08 09:02

by Hana Levi Julian

(IsraelNN.com) Israel’s “Iron Dome” missile defense system passed its test Sunday morning with flying colors, according to security officials, who say the system will also be able to defend Israel’ s civilian

s against mortar attacks as well.

The “Iron Dome” works by intercepting medium-range Katyusha rockets as well as the shorter, homemade Kassam rockets and mortars fired by Gaza terrorists, using a small kinetic missile interceptor called the “Tamir.”

The system, when tested a year and a half ago, was found to be incapable of defending against the shorter-range Kassams rockets, which can sometimes reach their target within 20 seconds.

It was previously believed the system would be ineffective against mortar attacks for the same reason since mortar shells hit targets within 10 seconds .

Developed under contract by Israel Military Industry’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, the $300 million system which was tested at the Ramon Air Force Base in southern Israel will reportedly be ready for operation by 2010.

It is meant to become part of a multi-layered defense system aimed at protecting Israeli Gaza Belt residents from shelling by Gaza terrorists, and residents in northern Israel from rocket attacks fired by Hizbullah terrorists in southern Lebanon.

The system might also be used to protect the rest of Israel from longer range attacks launched against the Jewish State from Syria or Iran. Israel has asked the United States to foot the bill for approximately 65 percent of the development costs for the project.

Palestinian Authority terrorists have launched more than 4,000 Kassam rockets at southern Israel since the Disengagement from Gaza in August 2005.

Residents in the north suffered a similar number of rocket attacks, with more than 4,000 Katyusha missiles fired by Hizbullah terrorists at Israeli communities as far south as Afula during the 2006 Second Lebanon War.

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