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Where is the “Tipping Point” that causes an Israeli Strike on Iran?

November 8, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

I don’t think Israel has to worry about being hit with a missile carrying a nuclear warhead until 2010, and even after that I doubt if Iran would dare launch against them, knowing the quantity and quality of nuclear warheads Israel would launch against them in retaliation.

However, I am located here in Arkansas, not directly under the gun as is Israel in the Middle East, and I doubt if Israeli officials are willing to gamble my assertion in the previous paragraph is correct.

So, I am guessing they will launch an air assault on Iran next year or in 2009.

Begin Jerusalem Post Article

‘US afraid of an Israeli strike in Iran’

JPost.com Staff, Yaakov Katz, and AP, THE JERUSALEM POST

November 8, 2007

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s announcement Wednesday that Iran had 3,000 working centrifuges raised fears in Washington that Israel would respond to the statement with a preemptive military strike, the Times reported Thursday.

The British paper quoted military sources in the US capital as saying that the figure presented by Ahmadinejad could be the “tipping point” that touches off an IAF strike.

Washington was reluctant to go forward with a strike against Iran, but Israel was a “different matter,” the officials said.

Even before the Iranian president’s announcement US defense officials told the Times that ” Israel could do something when they get to around 3,000 working centrifuges.

The Pentagon is minded to wait a little longer.”

Concern over an Israeli strike has been “heightened” following the September 6 strike on a target suspected to belong to a Syrian nuclear program,

the paper said.

On Wednesday night, hours after Ahmadinejad’s announcement, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said a military operation was a viable option for dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat.

“We cannot take any option off the table and we need to study operational aspects,” Barak said at a Labor Party meeting in Beers heba, adding that

he could not go into detail. “This is not just for the coming months but also for the coming two years,” he said.

The new developments in Iran meant Israel had to hold a serious debate on the issue, Barak said. “We need to have a comprehensive discussion and to act when it comes to thwarting, gathering intelligence and [imposing] sanctions,” he added.

Barak reminded his audience of Military Intelligence’s assessment that Iran, if not stopped, could obtain a nuclear weapons by the end of the decade.

“Intelligence officials gave us an estimate that things are moving forward, and the assessment is that it will take between three and four years,” he said. “That goes by very quickly.”

Barak said the world needed to take additional diplomatic action against Iran as well as economic steps that would cut off funding for the country’ s nuclear program.

“We have now reached 3,000 machines,” Ahmadinejad told thousands of Iranians gathered in Birjand, eastern Iran, in a show of defiance of international demands to halt the program believed to be masking the country’s nuclear arms efforts.

Ahmadinejad has previously said Iran had succeeded in installing the 3,000 centrifuges at its uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. But Wednesday’s claim was his first official statement that the plant is now operating all those centrifuges.

When Iran first announced launching the 3,000 centrifuges in April, the UN nuclear watchdog agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Teheran had only 328 centrifuges up and running at Natanz’s underground facility.

In a recent report, drawn up by IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei, the agency put the number of centrifuges working in Natanz at close to 2,000, with another 650 being tested.

Although Ahmadinejad was not totally precise, the tone and setting of his Wednesday speech reflected he clearly meant the 3,000 were fully operational.

Uranium gas, spun in linked centrifuges, can result in either low-enriched fuel suitable to generate power in a nuclear reactor, or the weapons-grade material that forms the fissile core of nuclear warheads.

US experts say 3,000 centrifuges are enough to produce a nuclear weapon, perhaps as soon as within a year.

Iran says it plans to expand its enrichment program to up to 54,000 centrifuges at Natanz in central Iran – which would amount to industrial-scale uranium enrichment.

Ahmadinejad on Wednesday reiterated his rejection of any suspension of Iran’s enrichment activities, or even a compromise over how Teheran will proceed beyond the 3,000 centrifuges.

“They say they’ve swallowed these 3,000 and want to reach an agreement with us on what to do, at what speed, how many [centrifuges] a day or week,” Ahmadinejad said of latest Western pressures.

“Our response is: ‘Who are you to make comments about the Iranian nation… Do we ask you how many machines you have?'”

He also said he had bluntly refused a recent offer to negotiate with the United States over Iran’s nuclear activities.

“I, as your representative, told those who brought the message that we didn’t ask for talks… If talks are to be held, it is the Iranian nation that has to set conditions, not the arrogant and the criminals,” Ahmadinejad said.

“The world must know that this nation will not give up one iota of its nuclear rights… if they think they can get concessions from this nation, they are badly mistaken,” he concluded.

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SUPPLEMENT TO NOON BLOG!

Iranian Plutonium Production may be ahead of Schedule!

November 7, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

The following exclusive from DEBKAfile compliments the blog we issued today at noon (November 7), “How Long Will Israel Wait?”

In the noon blog I made the statement: “I doubt if Iran will develop and test a nuclear bomb before 2010.” I underlined the ‘and’ in the noon blog because I realized it might be possible for them to develop one in 2009, but I doubted they would be able to test it before 2010. When I received the DEBKAfile exclusive report, I thought it would be wise to send

it along to show the similarity of parallel conclusions in US and Israeli intelligence estimates. All this blends quite well with my guess that the initial attack by Islamic forces against Israel is likely to occur at some point in time between 2010 and the end of 2014.

DEBKAfile Exclusive: Israel’s inner cabinet in urgent session Wednesday to discuss advanced Iranian nuclear bomb timeline to 2009

November 7, 2007, 6:28 PM (GMT+02:00)

The inner cabinet met Wed.

Nov. 7, to discuss the shortened timeline estimate for Iran to attain a nuclear weapons capacity, based on new intelligence information.

IDF intelligence chief Brig.

Yossi Baidatz told the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee Tuesday that Iran would have this capacity by late 2009, whereas the previous estimate was 2010 or 2011.

Committee ch airm

an Tzahi Hanegbi told a radio interviewer that the new timeline made 2008 the critical year for grappling once and for all with the Iranian program.

The new data was put before the ministers ahead of their meeting Wednesday. DEBKAfile’s Washington sources report that American nuclear and intelligence experts agree on the timetable after poring over the new intelligence input. This includes materials gathered in the Israel attack of Syria’s nuclear installation on Sept. 6. They have reached three key conclusions:

1. That Iran is engaged in the secret production of plutonium for nuclear weapons as well as radioactive materials for a dirty bomb, in parallel to its uranium enrichment projects. Israeli intelligence has believed this for three years, but until the operation in Syria there was no concrete evidence.

This discovery is at the center of the current US-Israeli controversy with the International Atomic Energy Agency- IAEA, Dr.

Mohammed ElBaradei.

If he accepts the evidence, it will be an admission that his vast inspection apparatus in Vienna, whose job it is to watch out for nuclear misdemeanors across the world, missed out twice – in Iran and then in Syria. Dr. ElBaradei might then face the suspicion that his work is governed by political rather than professional motivations.

Up until now, the nuclear watchdog’s chief has not sent inspectors to examine Israel’s findings at the two Syrian sites targeted. He evidently fears they will come back with evidence of plutonium-related nuclear activity.

2. The working premise followed by American and Israeli intelligence is that if Syria was on the road to manufacturing plutonium, Iran must be far more advanced on this course and must be presumed to have begun manufacturing enough waste for dirty bombs and very likely also the materials for a nuclear bomb.

This premise demands a radical reassessment by the United States and Iran’s Gulf and Middle East neighbors of their options for dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat and essential restructuring of the Israel military’s functions to meet a possible radioactive attack by Iran or its terrorist proxies close closer at hand.

3. DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report that these developments throw new light on the role of the Iranian heavy water plant at Arak, whose capacity to produce plutonium places it at the center of Iran’s nuclear program.

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HOW LONG WILL ISRAEL WAIT

?

November 7, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

I have never doubted that Iran has been on

a frantic drive to acquire a nuclear bomb. But, at the same time, I have been equally convinced the intent has been to use it as a deterrent, to be certain Israel does not send a nuclear warhead in Iran’s direction. Iran and Syria want to drive the Jews into the Mediterranean Sea, with no hope of return, as do all the other Middle East Muslims. But they do not want a nuclear war with Israel because they know Israel has a nuclear armada consisting of hundreds of Jericho missiles with nuclear

warheads, which could wipe out most of the Islamic population in the Middle East. They want a conventional war because they know they have a fantastic advantage in numbers, not nuclear destructive ability. The Middle East Muslims are at a tremendous disadvantage in nuclear and air power, and they know it.

It is not possible for Islam to win a Middle East nuclear war with Israel, and they jolly well know it. I have always contended that Iran wants an arsenal of missile-deliverable nuclear warheads in place before starting a conventional Middle East war, using Hizbullah and Syria as their two pawns in initiating it.

So the ball is in Israel’s court, and the question is, how long will Israel wait? Considering all that is involved in the process of acquiring several deliverable nuclear warheads, I doubt if Iran will develop and test a nuclear bomb before 2010, and I doubt if they will be able to develop an arsenal of them, in which they have confidence they can hit their targets, prior to 2014.

However, if Pakistan falls to fanatic Islam, they could obtain deliverable nuclear warheads much earlier.

So, either way, the question remains, How long will Israel wait

?

Begin Jerusalem Post Article

Mofaz: 2008 decisive for stopping Iran

Mark Weiss and Sheera Frenkel, THE JERUSALEM POST

November 6, 2007

Next year will be a critical one in efforts to stop

Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz said Tuesday.

“Iran’s nuclear program is proceeding like an express train.

The diplomatic efforts to thwart Iran are like a slow train. If we cannot derail the Iranian train from the tracks, we are on the verge of a nuclear era that will totally alter the regional reality,” the former defense minister and IDF chief of General Staff told the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish organizations in New York.

Mofaz, who is also deputy prime minister, is scheduled to hold talks in Washington on Wednesday with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

On Thursday, Mofaz will head the Israeli delegation at a Strategic Dialogue meeting with American leaders. The delegation includes senior officials from the Foreign and Defense ministries and from elsewhere in the security establishment.

Another warning that time is running out came on Tuesday from Brig.-Gen. Yossi Baidatz, head of Military Intelligence’s research bureau, who told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that if Iran’s nuclear program went unchecked, the Islamic Republic could have nuclear weapons by the end of 2009.

“Iran’s conservative sect is gaining power.

The Iranian regime is faced with internal issues, but there is no threat to its existence or stability. Assuming it faces no difficulties, the worst case scenario is Iran obtaining nuclear arms by 2009,” said Baidatz. He added that the regime of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad remained popular throughout the region, despite criticism farther abroad.

Israel’s response to the Iranian nuclear program will be periodically reevaluated to check its effectiveness, said Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who also addressed the committee.

“The things that we do behind the scenes, far from the public eye, are far more important than the slogan charade. Talks don’t make threats go away. We must show good judgment and act wisely,” said Barak.

The latest warnings over the Iranian nuclear threat follow the public criticism of International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei on Monday by Foreign Ministry Director-General Aharon Abramovitch.

Addressing the Saban Forum in Jerusalem, Abramovitch said that instead of helping to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear potential, the UN body was an obstacle to such efforts. The IAEA provided an excuse to states that preferred not to join the international community’s efforts to prevent a nuclear Iran, he said.

The timing of the current Israeli diplomatic offensive is no coincidence.

Later this month, the IAEA is scheduled to present a periodic report to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany.

Based largely on this report, the Security Council will decide whether to back a third round of sanctions on Iran. Two permanent Security Council members, Russia and China, have so far refused to endorse stepped-up sanctions.

Sources in Jerusalem told The Jerusalem Post that another rosy report from ElBaradei, stressing Iranian cooperation and the need for more time, could give Moscow and Beijing an excuse to block a further round of sanctions.

Jerusalem believes that the current sanctions are effective but are not enough to persuade Teheran to stop pursuing its nuclear ambitions.

Israeli sources suspect that ElBaradei may want to prevent war at any cost, saying that he is very influenced by what happened in Iraq. His warnings before the second Gulf war that Baghdad did not possess weapons of mass destruction failed to prevent a military conflict.

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Major Sword Rattling On Both Sides of Border!

November 6, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

I suspect this current episode is a major case of sword rattling that will not result in the outbreak of a major Middle East War.

This is indeed the zone prophecy indicates as the place where the final conflict will be initiated, which culminates some three and one-half years later with the final battle of Armageddon, but this is not the time for it to begin.

THE BEGINNING – Daniel 11:40,41

And at the time of the end shall the king of the south push at him:

and the king of the north shall come against him like a whirlwind, with chariots, and with horsemen, and with many ships; and he shall enter into the countries, and shall overflow and pass over. [41] He shall enter also into the glorious land, and many countries shall be overthrown: but these shall escape out of his hand, even Edom, and Moab, and the chief of the children of Ammon.

THE CONFLICT – Daniel 7:24,25

And the ten horns out of this kingdom are ten kings that shall arise: and another shall rise after them; and he shall be diverse from t

he first, and he shall subdue three kings. [25] And he shall speak great words against the most High, and shall wear out the saints of the most High, and think to change times and laws: and they shall be given into his hand until a time and times and the dividing of time.

THE END OF THE CONFLICT – Daniel 11:45 to 12:1

And he shall plant the tabernacles of his palace between the seas in the glorious holy mountain; yet he shall come to his end, and none shall help him. [12] And at that time shall Michael stand up, the great prince which standeth for the children of thy people: and there shall be a time of trouble, such as never was since there was a nation even to that same time: and at that time thy people shall be delivered, every one that shall be found written in the book.

Revelation 16:16 – And he gathered them together into a place called in the Hebrew tongue Armageddon.

Luke 21:25-28 – And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, with perplexity; the sea and the waves roaring; [26] Men’s hearts failing them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth: for the powers of heaven shall be shaken.

[27] And then shall they see the Son of man coming in a cloud with power and great glory. [28] And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh.

Begin Daily Star Article

Hizbullah touts major ‘maneuvers’ in South Lebanon

Nasrallah: ‘I hope that both friend and foe will realize that the resistance is totally ready’

BY Rym Ghazel, Daily Star Staff

November 6, 2007

BEIRUT/BINT JBEIL: Hizbullah said Monday that thousands of its fighters – unarmed and out of uniform – held an exercise in South Lebanon over the weekend in response to major maneuvers conducted by the Israeli military across the border.

Israeli warplanes carried out intensive overflights along the coast from Naqoura to Zahrani. Last week the Lebanese Armed Forces fired anti-aircraft guns at Israeli jets that had intruded into Lebanese territory.

Two pro-opposition newspapers, Al-Akhbar and As-Safir, reported Monday that Hizbullah had staged one of its largest exercises ever south of the Litani River, the first since the end of the 2006 war with Israel.

“The resistance leadership was forced to take a different decision, unprecedented in Hizbullah’s history,” Al-Akhbar said.

The daily said Hizbullah’s secretary general, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, personally directed the exercise, afterward congratulating the participants.

“I hope that both friend and foe will realize that the resistance is totally ready to confront all kinds of Israeli threats,” he was quoted as saying.

As-Safir said the move came after Israeli maneuvers near the northern border with Lebanon and intensified Israeli flights over the South and Beirut.

As-Safir also quoted Major General Claudio Graziano, the commander of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, as warning Lebanese leaders in Beirut last week that tensions in the South and a deepening political crisis in the country might prompt European countries “to withdraw from UNIFIL within four months.”

Italy, France, Spain and Germany form the bulk of the reinforced UN force that deployed in South Lebanon after last year’s war. UNIFIL spokesperson Yasmina Bouziane denied the report quoting Graziano and stressed that the claims were “totally baseless.”

“All of the 28 troop-contributing countries concerned remain resolved and committed more than ever to continue their contribution to UNIFIL’s mission to help ensure security and stability,” said Bouziane.

As for the Al-Akhbar report, she said it has been “denied by Lebanese authorities.”

“The position of the Lebanese authorities is corroborated by reports of UNIFIL units on the ground,” she said.

” The Lebanese Armed Forces have the primary responsibility for security in South Lebanon, including ensuring that the area between the Blue Line and the Litani River is free of any unauthorized armed personnel, assets and weapons.

To that end, UNIFIL works closely in support of the [army],” she added.

Prime Minister Fouad Siniora also played down the reports, saying the exercises were only a “simulation on paper.”

“What happened is nothing but an indoor simulation exercise that was never implemented on the ground,” Siniora told reporters on Monday.

Apart from the 13,500 UN peacekeeping soldiers, the area south of the Litani is patrolled by 15,000 Lebanese troops, in accordance with UN Resolution 1701, which ended the hostilities in August 2006.

A senior Lebanese Army source told The Daily Star that there is no such thing as “unarmed” military maneuvers, but added that the Hizbullah drills, while officially unconfirmed, fall under the category of “movements of citizens around the South.”

“It does not mean anything to us [the army] unless it [the drill] is armed and poses a threat to security,” said the army source.

“Any activity or movement cannot be termed ‘maneuvers,'” the army source said.

“They may choose to call them maneuvers, but we don’t.”

A senior member of Hizbullah confirmed that the exercise took place, saying it was intended

to counter Israeli activity.

“In response to what the enemy is doing, this maneuver by the Islamic resistance was part of its … work and its commitment to always defend Lebanon, its sovereignty and its people,” Sheikh Hassan Izzedine told New Television.

Although the reports of the exercise prompted fears of renewed conflict with Israel, political analysts dismissed the idea that another war is imminent.

“Hizbullah is sending a political message to Israel,” former senior UNIFIL adviser Timur Goksel told The Daily Star in a telephone interview.

“It has always been Hizbullah’s way to respond to Israel in kind,” Goksel said.

Goksel said the message to Israel was simple: “If you can do these exercises, so can we.”

He also said that by being unarmed and not in uniform during the exercise, Hizbullah did not “legally” violate 1701.

“But their maneuvers put the UN peacekeepers and the army in a difficult position,” he said.

Goksel said renewed conflict was unlikely, adding: “Israel wasn’t threatened by it, saw it as a political gimmick.”

“Israel will monitor the situation from the sky,” he added.

The Lebanese Army command has in the last few days, including Monday, issued statements noting increased Israeli overflights in South Lebanon in violation of Resolution 1701.

Last week, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon issued a report saying that Israel claims that Hizbullah has rearmed with new long-range rockets capable of hitting Tel Aviv.

Ban’s report said Israel also claims Hizbullah has tripled its C-802 shore-based anti-ship missiles and has established an air-defense unit armed with surface-to-air missiles.

– With agencies and additional reporting by Mohammed Zaatari

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Iranian Arab Energy Aid (IAEA) is Pro-Iran

November 6, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

T he

UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) should be titled the Iranian Arab Energy Aid.

Begin Jerusalem Post Article

‘IAEA chief playing into Iranian hands’

Mark Weiss and AP, THE JERUSALEM POST

November 5, 2007

The International Atomic Energy Agency is not only neglecting its duties of preventing nuclear proliferation, but acting as an obstacle to those trying to preserve the status quo, the Foreign Ministry’s Director-General Aharon Abramovitch said on Monday.

Addressing the Saban Forum in Jerusalem Abramovitch said the UN nuclear watchdog provides an excuse to states that prefer not to join the international community’s efforts to prevent a nucle

ar Iran.

Israeli officials believe the head of IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei is not forceful enough in the periodic reports he presents to the UN on the Iranian nuclear program.

By stressing Iranian cooperation with the inspectors and the need for more time, Jerusalem believes that Elbaredi is playing into Iranian hands.

The IAEA chief h as also come under sharp US criticism over moves that W

ashington sees as appeasing Iran – particularly a deal he negotiated for Teheran to explain outstanding questions over its nuclear program.

He defended the strategy in an interview with the state-run Egyptian daily Al-Ahram as a test for Iran to “show good intentions.”

“This situation, which might continue for two or three months, is an investment in peace,” said Baradei.

He warned that the standoff between the West and Iran over the nuclear issue was adding “more fuel to a burning fire” in the Middle East.

“The area is going through one of its worst moments and we cannot add more confrontations.”

“In my opinion, what we should do now is to encourage Iran to cooperate because any attempt to isolate Iran … means the hard-liners will take over the driver’s seat,” he said.

Begin Excerpt from Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs – Daily Alert

By Lying about Its Nuclear Activities, Iran Has Forfeited Its Right to Enrichment for Peaceful Purposes

Jim Hoagland

November 5, 2007

Iran is working to produce a 20-to-50-pound stockpile of enriched uranium that it can use to build atomic weapons within eight to ten weeks, once it decides to do so – and has consistently lied to the UN about those efforts.

The IAEA and the UN Security Council have determined that Iran has lied about its nuclear activities and has therefore forfeited its right to enrichment for peaceful purposes. That Iran has gone to great, secretive lengths

to create and push forward a bomb-building capability is not a Bush delusion.

But neither is it fantasy to say, as do Russia and China, that the Iranians have had great difficulty in getting their system of 2,952 centrifuges at Natanz, south of Tehran,

to work effectively.

(Washington Post)

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