Archive for April, 2007

No Full Blown Middle East War until Islamic Fanatics are Ready!

Thursday, April 12th, 2007

No Full Blown Middle East War until Islamic Fanatics are Ready!

April 12, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

There is a steady flow of predictions by numerous high rank ing sources

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in the Middle East stating that a war will break out in Israel during the summer of this year. I have consistently maintained I do not expect a major Middle East War to develop until some point in time between 2008 and 2012. However, there have been so many military experts making a prediction of one this summer, I will admit there may be some outbreak of hostilities at that time but, if so, I do not believe it will turn into a major Middle East war.

The latest proclamation of a summer or even earlier outbreak of war in the south and north of Israel with Hizbullah and Hamas, is covered in the Arutz Sheva article by Hillel Fendel.

Begin Arutz Sheva Article

Israel Threatened in North, South

24 Nisan 5767, 12 April 07 06:49

by Hillel Fendel

(IsraelNN.com) Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Tzvika Fogel, in the clearest warning yet of his long-running series of such

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warnings, says that though Israel chooses to ignore it, war can be expected in Gaza by this summer – and possibly within a month.

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ogel, a former chief of staff for the Southern Command, spoke this morning on Channel Ten television. He warned of two scenarios. One is that Israel will “continue its ostrich-like stance” until military/terrorist forces in Gaza surprise-attack Israel. A second alternative, if this does not happen by the summer, is that Israel will have no choice but to begin a full-scale offensive against the increasingly-strengthened Hamas-Fatah military capacity.

Gen. Fogel noted, as he and others have done many times in the past, the wide-scale smuggling network into Gaza that has been developed since Israel quit Gaza during the Disengagement in 2005. “During this period, the Palestinians have brought in anything they wanted through the tunnels they dug,” he said, “and Hamas has built up its army in this time in preparation for the conflict with Israel.”

The repeated PA declarations of insistence on the full “right of return” for millions of Arabs to Israel, together with PA war readiness, were also cited by Fogel as indications that war appears close.

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He had strong criticism of official Israel: “In the face of this Palestinian threat, Israel chooses to reinforce [its buildings], to close its eyes and hide it head in the sand… Ever since the ceasefire with Abu Mazen went into effect some four months ago, about 200 Kassam rockets have been fired from Gaza – almost two a day. Yet Israel does nothing, and would rather deal with prisoner exchanges and reinforcing communities.”

Hizbullah, Too

On Israel’s northern border, a high-ranking Hizbullah official says there is a possibility of war with Israel this summer. Hizbullah’s Deputy Secretary-General Naim Kassam told The Guardian of London that the U.S. is “pushing Israel towards a violent clash.”

End Arutz Sheva Article

The major reason I have, for some time, guesstimated a major war would not begin in the Middle East until some point in time between 2008 and 2012, was the presence of United States military forces in Iraq.

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I expect a withdrawal to begin in 2008, which will likely be concluded by 2010.

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I do not believe the forces of Islam across the Middle East want to fight a face to face war with both American and Israel troops at the same time.

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But another reason I chose 2008 to 2012 as the most likely time a full blown war would begin in the Middle East is simply because I have agreed for a long time with the premise put

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forward in the UK Times article which follows.

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Iran desires to have a deterrent nuclear bomb, which she thinks would stop Israel from launching one against her when she becomes involved in a war with Israel.

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I doubt she will have one before 2010. So I chose 2010 as the optimum year for a full scale attack against Israel, guesstimating it could occur as early as late 2008, but before the end of 2012. I don’t anticipate Iran initially launching a nuclear weapon on Israel to start the war, because Iran has no desire to be eliminated as a nation on this planet.

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Begin Excerpt from Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs Daily Alert

Iran’s Tough Swagger Can’ t Disguise a Basic Weakness.

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Bronwen Maddox (Times-UK)

This week Iran said it was ready to start uranium enrichment. It may be ready in the sense of wanting to start, but that does not mean that it can.

This is a country, after all, that has been prevented by sanctions and lack of expertise from building refineries to turn its own oil into petrol. It has been forced to spend the bounty from high oil prices on subsidizing imported petrol

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to fend off protests that might threaten the regime.

Nor has Iran been able to make spare parts for its national airline, which has a safety record so poor that buying a ticket carries a significant risk of death.

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Israel – Suicide Bombers Within, Nuclear Threat Assessment Without!

Thursday, April 12th, 2007

Israel – Suicide Bombers Within, Nuclear Threat Assessment Without!

April 12, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Matthew 23:37-39 – O Jerusalem, Jerusalem, thou that killest the prophets, and stonest them which are sent unto thee, how often would I have gathered thy children together, even as a hen gathereth her chickens under her wings,

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and ye would not! [38] Behold, your house is left unto you desolate.

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[39] For I say unto you, Ye shall not see me henceforth, till ye shall say, Blessed is he that cometh in the name of the Lord.

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Micah 5:3 – Therefore will he give them up, until the time that she which travaileth hath brought forth: then the remnant of his brethren shall return unto the children of Israel.

Malachi 3:16-18 – Then they that feared the Lord spake often one to another: and the Lord hearkened, and heard it, and a book of remembrance was written before him for them that feared the Lord, and that thought upon his name. [17] And they shall be mine, saith the Lord of hosts, in that day when I make up my jewels; and I will spare them, as a man spareth his own son that serveth him. [18] Then shall ye return, and discern between the righteous and the wicked, between him that serveth God and him that serveth him not.

Begin Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs Daily Alert Excerpts

Excerpt 1

Israeli Security Agency Warns of Hamas Attacks

Isabel Kershner

A recent wave of arrests of Hamas militants in the West Bank town of Kalkilya, linked to a truck packed with 220 pounds of explosives and driven to the Tel Aviv area, provided evidence that Hamas members there are primed to resume attacks in Israel, the Israeli internal security service Shin Bet asserted Tuesday.

The Shin Bet statement warned that Hamas operatives in Kalkilya “continue to work on the planning and execution of significant attacks, including ones in the immediate future.”

There has been a hiatus in Hamas suicide attacks since August 2004, but a senior Israeli army commander said recently that there are “some groups in the military wing of Hamas that don’t like the cease-fire or the unity government.”

David Baker, an official in the office of Prime Minister Olmert, asserted that Hamas “continues to target Israeli civilians.” “Terrorism is a cornerstone of the new Palestinian government, a government that should be shunned,” he said. (New York Times)

Excerpt 2

Weighing the Iranian Nuclear Threat

Michael Hirsh

David Albright, a physicist and former UN nuclear inspector, is president of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) in Washington.

“Iran has installed about a thousand centrifuges underground, distributed in six or seven ‘cascades,’ and Ahmadinejad is declaring today that this is ‘industrial-scale’ enrichment.

A year ago, they were saying the goal was 3,000 centrifuges, so he has changed the benchmark somewhat,” said Albright. “They’re still a couple of years away, in a worst-case scenario, from being able to produce enough highly enriched uranium

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for nuclear weapons…but this has exceeded the expectations put forward in the [U.S.] National Intelligence Estimate that Iran couldn’t have a nuclear weapon until 2010 to 2015.”

“They’re probably going to need to install 3,000 centrifuges to have the capability to produce nuclear weapons….They’ll probably need another year to do that. That will be enough to make enough highly enriched uranium to make one bomb, or perhaps two bombs, a year.”
(Newsweek)

Excerpt 3

Doubts Remain Over Iran’s Nuclear Claims

George Jahn

Exaggerating the number of centrifuges gives the Iranians more room to negotiate with world powers – and possibly allows them to hold out and keep some vestige of a nuclear enrichment program. “This is a country that routinely lies about conventional weapons developments and production,” said Anthony Cordesman, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

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Diplomats in Vienna familiar with an International Atomic Energy Agency probe of Iran’s nuclear program said Tuesday that Iran was running only about 650 centrifuges in series – and the machines were running empty, with none producing enriched uranium.

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(AP/Washington Post)

Excerpt 4

Jerusalem Dismisses Iran’s Nuclear Boasting

Herb Keinon

Senior officials in Israel brushed off Ahmadinejad’s claim that Teheran had begun enriching uranium with 3,000 centrifuges, sufficient to produce a nuclear weapon, as “nuclear boasting.” “He is a dangerous man,” one official said,

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“but let’s not downplay the fact that what he is trying to do is convince the Europeans that there is nothing they can do to stop him because he has already passed the nuclear threshold. He is not there.” The official said Israel knows that Ahmadinejad “does not have what he is boasting about.”

Israel’s assessment is that Iran has still not passed the “preliminary threshold, and that Ahmadinejad can still be stopped.

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Sanctions are effective, and need to be continued,” the official said. (Jerusalem Post)

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We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law.

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In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

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For more detailed information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. You may use material originated by this site. However, if you wish to use any quoted copyrighted material from this site, which did not originate at this site, for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner from which we extracted it.

Interesting Prediction of Mid-2007 War on Israel’s Northern Border!

Wednesday, April 11th, 2007

Interesting Prediction of Mid-2007 War on Israel’s Northern Border!

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April 11, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

I do not expect another war on the northern border

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to break out until some point in time between 2008 and 2012. I have given my reasons for selecting such a time frame in numerous previous Blogs. I indicated the year 2012 as the outer limit in Prophecy Update Number 7 in February of 2001, by stating: “I feel confident the attack will not occur before 2003, but I do believe it will occur before 2012.”

However, there have been a rash of predictions from a variety of many sources that are predicting a war for this year in mid-summer, and such a scenario is possible, but I don’t believe the Islamic forces will be ready that early.

The following articles are among those predicting a war this summer on Israel’s northern border.

Begin Haaretz Report

Report: Hezbollah says rearming, prepared for summer war with Israel

Haaretz News Service

April 11, 2007

Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Kassem told the British newspaper the Guardian that the group is rearming in the wake of the Second Lebanon War and is prepared for another war this summer.

“We are prepared for the possibility of another adventure or the demand of American policy that might push the IDF [Israeli Defense Forces] in that direction,” said Kassem in an interview published Wednesday.

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The United States, France and Great Britain are pushing for a special United Nations expert committee to examine ongoing weapons smuggling to Hezbollah across the Lebanon-Syria border.

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The push apparently came in the wake of UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s visit to the region, after which he briefed the UN Security Council on the smuggling.

Ban said that he “received information from Israel and other countries” that included evidence of arms smuggling from Syria and Iran to Hezbollah, calling it a “blatant violation” of Security Council resolutions – including the resolution that led to a cease-fire in the Second Lebanon War.

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That resolution calls for all Lebanese groups do disarm, with the exception of the Lebanese army.

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Begin Jane’s Defense Weekly Article

Hizbullah prepares for war

Jane’s Defence Weekly

By Nicholas Blanford

April 6, 2007

Lebanon’s Hizbullah organisation is mobilising its military wing, the Islamic Resistance (IR), in preparation for an expected new confrontation with Israel in mid-2007.

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New recruits are being pushed through an intensified training programme at the Iranian-backed group’s training camps in the Bekaa Valley and a steady flow of arms, including surface-to-surface rockets, is coming into Lebanon from Syria, sources within Hizbullah, Lebanese military intelligence and other Lebanese close to the Shia Muslim party told Jane’s.

The preparations have been detected by Israel, which reportedly delivered a message through US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the Syrian leadership in Damascus on 4 April assuring that no war against Lebanon or Syria is being planned.

Hizbullah’s build-up began immediately following the 14 August 2006 ceasefire, which ended the 34-day conflict between the Lebanese militants and the Israel Defence Force (IDF). The war yielded inconclusive results for both sides. Hizbullah was able to withstand the IDF’s month-long onslaught, killing 119 IDF soldiers and launching an uninterrupted flow of rockets into Israel.

However, Hizbullah lost its military autonomy along the Blue Line, the UN name for the Lebanon-Israel border, abandoning its elaborate network of fortified underground bunkers and firing positions to a reinforced 13,000-strong UN Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL 2) and to some 20,000 Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) troops.

Israel failed to achieve its pre-war goals of securing the release of two IDF soldiers captured on 12 July 2006, which triggered the war, and of crushing the IR. The repercussions of the conflict have weakened the Israeli government and eroded the IDF’s image of deterrence.

Begin Haaretz Article
The IDF’s lost honor
Haaratz
April 8, 2007
By Uzi Benziman

On the eve of Pesach, MK Effi Eitam told the nation that he now sleeps a lot better.

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This occured after he heard Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi tell the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee about how he will make sure that at the end of the next war there will be no doubt over who won.

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Until then Eitam was worried about the spirit pervading the IDF command, but the briefing by the new chief of staff filled him with optimism: Ashkenazi’s language was lucid, he posed clear objectives and he gave his listeners a sense of confidence that he knows what he’s doing.

Fighting moods are a bad thing when they come from the chief of staff.

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During the 1950s, chief of staff Moshe Dayan told prime minister David Ben-Gurion that he preferred commanders who were noble stallions, ones that needed to be restrained when they exhibited excessive enthusiasm to encounter the enemy. Battalion, brigade and division comm

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anders and their subordinates are indeed expected to be soaked in fighting spirit and ready to carry out the missions assigned to them. The members of the general staff, on the other hand, must be much more level-headed in the way they approach the political-security situati

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The Second Lebanon War has left the IDF damaged. The army feels it failed to meet expectations and has since been obsessed with a wish to make amends.

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A short while after the cease-fire, circles in the IDF began airing assessments that by the following summer (which is closing in) there will be a second round of fighting. The general staff concluded in a series of meetings last November that it was necessary to prepare for an offensive by Syria and Hezbollah in the summer of 2007.

In December 2006, a dispute emerged between the Mossad and military intelligence over Syria’s intentions. In February, Brigadier General Yossi Beiditch, head of research at military intelligence, told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that the Syrian leader is indeed serious about peace with Israel, on his terms, but is preparing for a confrontation because he does not want to be surprised.

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Last week, the chief of military intelligence, Major General Amos Yadlin, told the cabinet that Syria, Iran and Hezbollah are preparing for an American assault against Iran in the summer, and that Syria is taking into account that Israel is actively involved, and so Damascus is preparing for all eventualities.

All this talk is dangerous. Israel emerged from the Second Lebanon War bruised, and with an eroded deterrent. It recognizes this and its enemies believe it. The mere image of a country whose wings have been clipped entices Syria, Hezbollah and the Palestinians to challenge it. At the same time, the feeling of stained honor has aroused in the IDF a desire to once more raise the flag of victory and teach the hostile neighbors a lesson they will remember for a long time. There is also a feeling of plain vengeance, and a basic desire to res

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tore to Israel its deterrent. This constellation of considerations and motives feeds a dialogue inside the general staff, which echoes beyond the conference rooms and gives Israel’s enemies the impression that it is preparing for war in the coming months – whether this takes place in the Gaza Strip or at the northern border. This situation is sufficient to escalate the tension and begin the motion toward a boiling point.

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FAIR USE NOTICE: This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc.

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We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more detailed information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. You may use material originated by this site. However, if you wish to use any quoted copyrighted material from this site, which did not originate at this site, for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner from which we extracted it.

USS Baatan Strike Group a Welcome Sight to Arab Moderates!

Tuesday, April 10th, 2007

USS Baatan Strike Group a Welcome Sight to Arab Moderates

April 11, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

There is coming a day when the final war of three and one-half years will begin in the Middle East, and end at Armageddon.

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It will be a land and ocean war, where great battles and fantastic loss of life will be occurring above, on and under the earth’s terra firma and great waters.

Matthew 24:21,22 – For then shall be great tribulation, such as was not since the beginning of the world to this time, no, nor ever shall be. [22] And except those days should be shortened, there should no flesh be saved: but for the elect’s sake those days shall be shortened.

Luke 21:25,26 – And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, with perplexity; the sea and the waves roaring; [26] Men’s hearts failing them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth: for the powers of heaven shall be shaken.

Jeremiah 25:31-33 – A noise shall come even to the ends of the earth; for the Lord hath a controversy with the nations, he will plead with all flesh; he will give them that are wicked to the sword, saith the Lord. [32] Thus saith the Lord of hosts, Behold, evil shall go forth from nation to nation, and a great whirlwind shall be raised up from the coasts of the earth. [33] And the slain of the Lord shall be at that day from one end of the earth even unto the other end of the earth: they shall not be lamented, neither gathered, nor buried; they shall be dung upon the ground.

Numbers 24:23,24 – And he took up his parable, and said, Alas, who shall live when God doeth this! [24] And ships shall come from the coast of Chittim, and shall afflict Asshur, and shall afflict Eber, and he also shall perish for ever.

Begin DEBKAfile Article

Tehran’s Provocations top US Military Build-up to Ratchet up War Tensions

April 9, 2007, 6:09 PM (GMT+02:00)

No attempt was made to conceal the visit a cluster of top US brass paid April 4 to American marine units aboard the multipurpose amphibious assault ship USS Baatan (LHD 5) and other vessels of the strike group deployed in the Persian Gulf. In fact they were happy to answer questions about policies, equipment and future plans.

The group visiting the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) aboard the Baatan was led by Gen.

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James Conway. With him were Lt. Gen. Keith Stadler, Commanding General of II Marine Expeditionary Force (MEF), Marine Corps

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The group earlier climbed aboard the USS Oak Hill and USS Shreveport, which are part of the Bataan Strike Group.

Tehr an took this public flurry of activity as

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another sign of an impending US assault.

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Its response came four days later. On April 8, the foreign ministry spokesman in Tehran

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Mohammad Ali Hossein said the Iranian army had completed all its preparations for defending the homeland and Iran was prepared to repel a military offensive.

The tenor of the language emitting from Iran is one of defiance across the board.

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The foreign ministry in Tehran announced Monday, April 9: “Talks with the US are not on Iran’s agenda,” in reference to planned meetings on the sidelines of the second Iraq security conference taking place in Cairo next month.

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This was the final death blow to the US-Saudi initiative to engage Iran, which was fathered earlier this year by the Bush administration and Saudi King Abdullah. Washington had pinned high hopes on the follow-up Cairo meeting providing the forum for direct talks between US and Iranian foreign ministers.

Since Tehran has knocked this prospect on the head, not much is expected to come out of the Cairo gathering of UN Security Council and G-8 members as well as Iraq’s neighbors – even if it takes place. This too is in question, given the menacing tone of Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki. On Monday, he warned that relations with Iraq could deteriorate if the five Iranians detained in Iraq by US troops last February are not freed. Tehran is investigating their fate, he said, and urged Iraq to do the same.

Radical president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s proclamation of National Nuclear Energy Day celebrations to mark the first anniversary of Iran’s initial breakthrough on uranium enrichment is taken as a red flag to the West.

Notwithstanding persistent speculation, the Iranian leader refrained from announcing the installation of 3,000 centrifuges, which would have marked an important stride in large-scale uranium enrichment. He only announced “industrial scale” production of enriched uranium.” DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources disclose that Iran has not managed to install more than 1,000 centrifuges, and possibly less, for lack of progress in overcoming technical hitches. The other 2,000 are either still being run in or inoperative.

Last week, ABC News revealed that in the last three months, Iran has more than tripled its ability to produce enriched uranium, adding some 1,000 centrifuges which are used to separate radioactive particles from the raw material

The addition of 1,000 new centrifuges, which are not yet operational, means Iran is expanding its enrichment program at a pace much faster than U.S. intelligence experts had predicted. The Islamic Republic may indeed have a bomb by 2009. This is six years earlier than the previous US intelligence time frame of 2015 and closer to Israeli intelligence assessments.

And this week, Aviation Week & Space Technology brought out some new data relevant to Iran’s missile program about the expansion of Chinese missile strength US monitoring operations.

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The weekly reports that US Air Force Defense Support Program monitors have noted that both the Chinese and the Iranians “have very vigorous test programs.

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The number of ballistic missile launch events we are seeing with DSP is increasing.”

USAF Lt. Col, Joe Coniligio is quoted as saying: “…with major new Chinese and Iranian flight test activity to monitor, the DSP program has major initiatives underway to extract more intelligence out of the infrared data stream from each of the satellites.”

Also Monday, Iranian state TV announced Revolutionary Guard Gen.

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Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr had demonstrated the “ineffectiveness” of UN sanctions by spending six days in Moscow in defiance of the international ban on his travel. The Russians confirmed this. The general is listed with 15 individuals, whose visits all governments are required to ban.

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DEBKAfile’s sources note additional factors contributing to heightened tensions in the region, chiefly the high death toll the US and British military are sustaining in Iraq from high-powered Iranian roadside bombs, 10 Americans and 6 Britons killed over the Easter weekend alone. Quantities of lethal weapons continued to flow across the border to the anti-US Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr’s Mehdi Army militia. US and Iraqi forces have been battling these militia units for almost a week in the town of Diwaniya south of Baghdad. The Shiites are armed to the teeth with smuggled Iranian arms, including anti-tank and anti-air missiles.

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Sadr brought out to the streets of Najef and Kufa on Monday, April, 9, the fourth anniversary of the fall of Baghdad, tens of thousands of anti-American demonstrators who burned US flags and demanded the end of “American occupation.” Sadr in person is a constant thorn in America’s side from a safe distance in Tehran.

FAIR USE NOTICE: This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law.

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In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site

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is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

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For more detailed information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. You may use material originated by this site. However, if you wish to use any quoted copyrighted material from this site, which did not originate at this site, for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner from which we extracted it.

One of the Three King Horns that will be Subdued!

Tuesday, April 10th, 2007

One of the Three King Horns that will be Subdued!

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http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Poor Lebanon has a stacked deck going against it, and sooner or later, it will be subdued by the Shiites, through one of the teachings they are using called “Tazlif Sharii.”

Daniel 7:24,25 – And the ten horns out of this kingdom are ten kings that shall arise: and another shall rise after them; and he shall be diverse from the first, and he shall subdue three kings. [25] And he shall speak great words against the most High, and shall wear out the saints of the most High, and think to change times and laws: and they shall be given into his hand until a time and times and the dividing of time.

Lebanon is already in the pre-war stages of being subdued by the spirit of Antichrist.

(1) Arms smuggling is rampant, (2) Christians are leaving in droves, (3) Taklif is gripping Islamic Shiite souls, and (4) many Lebanese agents are helping Hizbullah.

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The four articles which follow detail the accounts of the pre-Antichrist spirit subduing Lenanon.

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(1) Begin DEBKAfile Report

DEBKAfile: UN Secy-Gen. Ban Ki-moon’s Lebanon report prompts belated Security Council move on arms smuggling from Syria to Hizballah

April 9, 2007, 11:22 AM (GMT+02:00)

Fr ance h

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as circulated a draft statement expressing serious concern at mounting reports of illegal arms transfers from Syria to Lebanon.

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The draft proposes authorizing an independent mission to assess if the border is being monitored.

Such arms transfers were expressly banned by N resolution 1701 under the ceasefire which ended last summer’s war between Israel and Hizballah.

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When the incoming UN secretary visited Lebanon two weeks ago, he was armed with evidence garnered by Israel, including maps, of banned arms transition across the border for the last six months. Israeli security officials report that by now Hizballah has almost finished restocking its pre-war arsenal – But better late than never.

(2) Begin UK Sunday Telegraph Article

Rise in Radical Islam Last Straw for Lebanon’s Christians

Michael Hirst

Christians are fleeing Lebanon to escape political and economic crises and signs that radical Islam is on the rise in the country. According to a poll, nearly half of all Maronites, the largest Christian denomination in the country, said they were considering emigrating.

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More than 100,000 have submitted visa applications to foreign embassies. About 60,000 Christians have left since last summer’s war between Israel and Hizbullah. “Lebanon has always been a bastion of religious tolerance, but now it is moving towards the model of Islamization seen in Iraq and Egypt,” said Fr. Samir Samir, a Jesuit teacher of Islamic studies at Beirut’s Universite’ Saint-Joseph. (Sunday Telegraph-UK)

(3) Hezbollah’s Mix of Prayer and Politics

By Alia Ibrahim

Sunday, April 1, 2007; B02

BEIRUT One rainy morning in January, Itidal Karim took her two adolescent daughters and 4-year-old son and joined tens of thousands of other women dressed in black chadors to walk for miles through Beirut’s gritty suburbs. Arriving at their destination, they stood in a pool of mud and, alternately cheering, beating their chests and raising their fists in a show of solidarity and strength, listened to Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah speak on the anniversary of the death of Imam Hussein, grandson of the prophet Muhammad and the most revered figure in Shiite Islam.

The trip wasn’t easy for Karim. But she never considered not taking part in the commemoration of Ashura, as the day is known. That is a religious duty, and missing it would be a sin. So would failing to participate in a demonstration called by Hezbollah, or not voting for a specified list of candidates, or ignoring any other action ordered under the religious command known as taklif sharii.

“The taklif represents the duties I must fulfill,” Karim said. “If we are asked to participate in a demonstration, then we must participate, even if we’re sick, even if we have family obligations.”

Reintroduced in 1969 by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the eventual leader of the Iranian revolution, the controversial notion of taklif gives broad powers to the faqih, or ultimate Shiite religious leader, who today is Khomeini’s successor, Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Supporters are obliged to follow his commands, and disobeying him is considered tantamount to disobeying God. As Khamenei’s representative in Lebanon, Nasrallah has the authority to issue religious commands, a power he often wields as a political tool.

That’s what he is doing in the crisis that has embroiled Lebanon since December.

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In addition to giving fiery speeches denouncing the Lebanese government and agitating for expanded political power, Nasrallah issued a taklif to rally the Shiite community in solid, unquestioning support of Hezbollah’s demand for one-third of the seats in the Lebanese cabinet.

Yet taklif is far from an accepted principle of Shiite theology. Even in Lebanon, clerics debate its legitimacy.

“Taklif’s use as a political tool has become almost like a military order, and it completely contradicts the individual’s sacred right of choice. Nothing should be imposed on people,” says Hani Fahs, a cleric and member of the Shiite Higher Council, citing a verse from the Koran: “How can you enslave people, born free by their mothers?”

But Mohamed Sherri, an editorialist and talk show host on Hezbollah’s al-Manar television station, disagrees. Every individual’s choice to commit to religion ensures that his or her rights will not be compromised, he says. And issuing a taklif on political matters is uncommon and limited to “very serious matters.” But “once a taklif is issued, violating it is similar to any sin, like murder or adultery, or not praying or fasting.”

But because taklif requires the believer’s complete adherence to the religious authority as the representative of God, says political scientist Waddah Shrara, author of “The State of Hezbollah,” it gives Hezbollah an uncontested political weapon. And the movement has used it, issuing a taklif calling on hundreds of thousands of supporters to take part in demonstrations and sit-ins until the demands for greater power are met.

Huda Issa is a 37-year-old media official with Hezbollah. For more than two months, she has spent more than 14 hours a day in one of the green-and-white tents that Hezbollah and its allies have planted across downtown Beirut in a bid to force the government’s resignation. From under her thick black chador, she passionately defends the conflation of religion and politics under taklif.

“We don’t separate” them, she says. “Democracy is not relevant here, it is not important. Faith is more important to us. We trust our leaders to lead us on the path of justice.”

Though she wasn’t always this devout, Issa has no doubt that she has chosen the right road, and she sees herself as working toward the creation of a perfect society. This is her taklif, she says.

Hezbollah’s religious influence is hard to escape in Beirut’s southern suburbs. In what looks like a huge propaganda campaign, the streets of Dahieh deploy modern and traditional displays celebrating both ancient history and

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the future objectives of a revolutionary religion. Colored posters of young men killed fighting Israel are spread alongside white, black or green banners quoting Khomeini and Nasrallah.

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Shops sell books, CDs and souvenirs related to Karbala, the city, now in Iraq, where Imam Hussein was martyred in the 7th century A.D. His stories are found in kiosks around every corner. Interspersed among them are hundreds of fundraising boxes, which are intended, says Khadiya Salloum, who directs Hezbollah-run women’s organizations in Beirut, to promote the culture of charitable giving. “Even poor people can give something,” she says. “This way they feel they are contributing something to the system.”

But what she sees as an innocent tool for raising awareness, Waddah Shrara considers a brilliant plan undertaken by Iranian intelligence in the early 1980s to reconstitute the downtrodden Shiite class in Lebanon during the civil war, when the state was largely out of the picture. “The members of this shattered community were given an identity, power, money they could take that wasn’t considered charity, leadership they could obey without embarrassment, everything,” he said. “They didn’t build a state, they built a society that is the state of Hezbollah.”

The reintegration of the Shiites into the country’s politics is essential to Lebanon’s future. But because taklif is so entangled with a religious ideology that reaches far beyond Lebanon’s borders, that reintegration is a daunting proposition. Lebanon’s Shiites feel a loyalty to Hezbollah that far transcends any sense of loyalty to an abstract political state and government.

Sitting in a conference room at a Hezbollah-run religious institution where she attends classes, Itidal Karim says she doesn’t trust the Lebanese state. “I really see nothing I could support,” she says. “During the war, when Israel was killing us, they were confiscating our weapons.”

What she believes, she teaches her children. And with the resources of al-Manar television and the guidance of Nasrallah, posters of whom adorn the house, most of the job is already done for her.

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“My son looks at me, sees what I am wearing, and he loves all the other women dressed like me. We’re the same,” she says.

The center’ s lobby i

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s bustling. A class has just ended, and women are picking up their children from the nursery. Beneath a poster of Khamenei, shadowed by Khomeini, an operator answers phones that don’t stop ringing. A mother holds the hand of a little girl with curly hair, dressed in black trousers and a black sweater emblazoned with the words “Oh Hussein.” Another woman holds her 1-year-old son. A colleague asks the child whether he knows how to lament the death of Imam Hussein. He nods and starts beating his chest.

In this cultural center, there is no Lebanese flag in sight.

aliaibrahim1@gmail.com

Alia Ibrahim is Beirut correspondent for Dubai TV.

(4) Begin Jerusalem Post Article

‘Lebanese agents are aiding Hizbullah’

Associated Press, THE JERUSALEM POST

April 7, 2007

A senior Lebanese anti-Syrian politician alleged on Saturday that Lebanese security agents were involved in helping Hizbullah smuggle in weapons across the country’s porous border with Syria.

Druse leader Walid Jumblatt told the Qatar-based Al-Jazeera satellite television channel that there is “complicity” between Hizbullah and some Lebanese security agents on the border who are allowing trucks to pass without being searched.

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“Nobody knows what’s inside these trucks,” Jumblatt said without elaborating.

Jumblatt, a legislator and key government supporter, also said in the interview that he believes the Lebanese army should enter Hizbullah training camps along the Syrian-Lebanese boundary. The existence of such camps has never been confirmed by the Hizbullah or Lebanese security officials.

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Also, such a crackdown against the Hizbullah would spark a major upheaval. The Lebanese army has so far been refused to be drawn into a conflict with the guerrillas and has taken a neutral stand in the political crisis between government and the Hizbullah-led opposition.

The army has said it will not move against either side, but also that it would not allow the dispute to degenerate into street violence, as was the case in December and January, when clashes took on a sectarian tone. Nine people were killed in the violence. At the time, the army came out onto the streets and briefly imposed a rare nighttime curfew.

Jumblatt’s comments came a day after France circulated a draft UN Security Council statement expressing “serious concern” at mounting reports of illegal arms transfers across the Lebanon-Syria border and authorizing an independent mission to assess how the frontier is being guarded.

The draft, sent to Security Council members late Thursday, welcomes the Lebanese government’s “determination” to prevent transfers of weapons – banned under a UN resolution that ended last summer’s war between Hizbullah and Israel. It also urges all countries, especially Hizbullah backers Syria and Iran, to enforce the arms embargo.

“There is a state within a state,” Jumblatt said of Lebanon in the interview. “There is a Hizbullah army alongside the Lebanese army.

There is Hizbullah intelligence alongside Lebanese (army) intelligence and there are Lebanese territories that the army is prohibited from entering.”

“The Lebanese army should have … entered the areas between Lebanon and Syria that are off-limits,” he added.

Jumblatt, a one-time ally of Hizbullah, turned against the group last year and has been among the most ardent callers for disarming it.

Mahmoud Komati, the deputy leader of Hizbullah’s political bureau, promptly denied Jumblatt’s allegations, telling Al-Jazeera that “all these accusations are part of the conspiracy against the resistance.”

The Hizbullah-led opposition in Lebanon has been locked in a bitter struggle with the US-backed government of Prime Minister Fuad Saniora.

Despite his anti-Syrian stance, Saniora recently conceded that “not one single case of arms smuggling across the border” with Syria has been recorded.

The opposition has been staging protests and an open ended sit-in since Dec. 1 to try and force Saniora to resign after he rejected its call for a national unity government that would give it a veto-wielding share in Cabinet.

End Jerusalem Post Article

So who are the other two king horns that will be subdued by the man of sin

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? I am quite confident that Lebanon and Egypt will be two of them. I am not nearly as confident of the third, but I believe he will be the ruler of Sudan, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, or Jordan – take your pick!

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