No Full Blown Middle East War until Islamic Fanatics are Ready!

No Full Blown Middle East War until Islamic Fanatics are Ready!

April 12, 2007

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There is a steady flow of predictions by numerous high rank ing sources

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in the Middle East stating that a war will break out in Israel during the summer of this year. I have consistently maintained I do not expect a major Middle East War to develop until some point in time between 2008 and 2012. However, there have been so many military experts making a prediction of one this summer, I will admit there may be some outbreak of hostilities at that time but, if so, I do not believe it will turn into a major Middle East war.

The latest proclamation of a summer or even earlier outbreak of war in the south and north of Israel with Hizbullah and Hamas, is covered in the Arutz Sheva article by Hillel Fendel.

Begin Arutz Sheva Article

Israel Threatened in North, South

24 Nisan 5767, 12 April 07 06:49

by Hillel Fendel

(IsraelNN.com) Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Tzvika Fogel, in the clearest warning yet of his long-running series of such

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warnings, says that though Israel chooses to ignore it, war can be expected in Gaza by this summer – and possibly within a month.

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ogel, a former chief of staff for the Southern Command, spoke this morning on Channel Ten television. He warned of two scenarios. One is that Israel will “continue its ostrich-like stance” until military/terrorist forces in Gaza surprise-attack Israel. A second alternative, if this does not happen by the summer, is that Israel will have no choice but to begin a full-scale offensive against the increasingly-strengthened Hamas-Fatah military capacity.

Gen. Fogel noted, as he and others have done many times in the past, the wide-scale smuggling network into Gaza that has been developed since Israel quit Gaza during the Disengagement in 2005. “During this period, the Palestinians have brought in anything they wanted through the tunnels they dug,” he said, “and Hamas has built up its army in this time in preparation for the conflict with Israel.”

The repeated PA declarations of insistence on the full “right of return” for millions of Arabs to Israel, together with PA war readiness, were also cited by Fogel as indications that war appears close.

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He had strong criticism of official Israel: “In the face of this Palestinian threat, Israel chooses to reinforce [its buildings], to close its eyes and hide it head in the sand… Ever since the ceasefire with Abu Mazen went into effect some four months ago, about 200 Kassam rockets have been fired from Gaza – almost two a day. Yet Israel does nothing, and would rather deal with prisoner exchanges and reinforcing communities.”

Hizbullah, Too

On Israel’s northern border, a high-ranking Hizbullah official says there is a possibility of war with Israel this summer. Hizbullah’s Deputy Secretary-General Naim Kassam told The Guardian of London that the U.S. is “pushing Israel towards a violent clash.”

End Arutz Sheva Article

The major reason I have, for some time, guesstimated a major war would not begin in the Middle East until some point in time between 2008 and 2012, was the presence of United States military forces in Iraq.

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I expect a withdrawal to begin in 2008, which will likely be concluded by 2010.

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I do not believe the forces of Islam across the Middle East want to fight a face to face war with both American and Israel troops at the same time.

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But another reason I chose 2008 to 2012 as the most likely time a full blown war would begin in the Middle East is simply because I have agreed for a long time with the premise put

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forward in the UK Times article which follows.

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Iran desires to have a deterrent nuclear bomb, which she thinks would stop Israel from launching one against her when she becomes involved in a war with Israel.

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I doubt she will have one before 2010. So I chose 2010 as the optimum year for a full scale attack against Israel, guesstimating it could occur as early as late 2008, but before the end of 2012. I don’t anticipate Iran initially launching a nuclear weapon on Israel to start the war, because Iran has no desire to be eliminated as a nation on this planet.

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Begin Excerpt from Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs Daily Alert

Iran’s Tough Swagger Can’ t Disguise a Basic Weakness.

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Bronwen Maddox (Times-UK)

This week Iran said it was ready to start uranium enrichment. It may be ready in the sense of wanting to start, but that does not mean that it can.

This is a country, after all, that has been prevented by sanctions and lack of expertise from building refineries to turn its own oil into petrol. It has been forced to spend the bounty from high oil prices on subsidizing imported petrol

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to fend off protests that might threaten the regime.

Nor has Iran been able to make spare parts for its national airline, which has a safety record so poor that buying a ticket carries a significant risk of death.

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