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WHAT A DIFFERENCE A “HE” MAKES IN DANIEL 9:27

November 5, 2009

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

While the vast majority of prophetic buffs on television, turning out books faster than “Jack be Nimble, Jack be Quick, Jack jumped over the Candle Stick,” are still assuring believers there will be 1260 days of a peace treaty with the Antichrist prior to 1260 days of “Great Tribulation,” we are headed for a war which will not be preceded by 1260 days of peace. It is very likely to begin at some point in time between 2010 and 2015 when Islamic forces attack Israel and the clock begins to suddenly tick off the last 1335 days of Daniel’s 70th Week remaining in Daniel 9:27. Read the following Excerpts from today’s November 5th collection from the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs/Daily Alert, and ask yourself how any form of a peace treaty could come out of what has developed in the Middle East during the last 61 years. Because of the huge percentage of prophetic teachers who taught there would be 1260 of peace, I tried up until now to cling to a brief peace period of perhaps 75 days before Israel was attacked, to at least attempt to not violently be in opposition to this teaching, but the time is short, and I am standing up now to what I am convinced is the case – There will not be a peace treaty with the man of sin prior to the attack against Israel. There are only 1335 days remaining to be fulfilled in Daniel’s 70th Week of Years, and I believe his clock will start to tick again when Israel is attacked at some point in time from 2010 to 2015.

Please take the time to read the 6 Excerpts and My comments which follow them.

Begin Series of Excerpts from the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs/Daily Alert

Excerpt 1 from AP

3,000 Missiles Found on Seized Arms Ship – Aron Heller

At least 3,000 missiles were on board the Francop, a vessel stopped by Israel off the coast of Cyprus and towed to the port of Ashdod. Containers with dark green missiles inside bore writing in English that said “I.R. Iranian Shipping Lines Group.” Israel alleged that the shipment of hundreds of tons of rockets, missiles, mortars, grenades and anti-tank weapons – the largest it ever seized – was headed for Hizbullah in Lebanon. The ship had departed an Iranian port for Syria. Deputy Israeli navy commander Roni Ben-Yehuda said the ship carried ten times as many weapons as the Karine A, a weapons ship captured by Israeli forces in the Red Sea in January 2002. (AP)

Excerpt 2 from MEMRI

Iranian Revolutionary Guards Training Yemen Rebels

The Saudi daily Al-Watan reported on Oct. 31 that Yemen had captured an Iranian ship smuggling armor-piercing weapons to the Houthi rebels.

The sixth war between the Yemen military and the Houthis broke out about ten weeks ago. Senior Yemen officials say Iran is finding more and more ways of supporting the Houthis – through funds, weapons, and media support.

Al-Watan reported that the Yemen government has information that “there are Houthi training camps in Eritrea, and in them there are units of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC); it is assessed that they are training the rebels and equipping them with weapons via the Eritrean port of ‘Asab. [These units] are facilitating rebel movements from ‘Asab port to Maydi port in Yemen – a distance of only a few kilometers.” One Houthi commander, Sheikh Abdallah Al-Mahdoun, said in a newspaper interview that “the Houthis had received unlimited help in arms and supplies, under the oversight of the IRGC and also of experts from Hizbullah.” (MEMRI)

Excerpt 3 from New York Times

Dissidents Mass in Tehran to Subvert Anti-U.S. Rally – Robert F. Worth
Tens of thousands of Iranian opposition protesters braved police beatings and clouds of tear gas on the sidelines of a major, government-sponsored anti-American rally on Wednesday. The protests in Tehran and other cities were the opposition’s largest street showing in two months and came on the 30th anniversary of the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Iran. Protesters declared their impatience with President Obama’s policy of dialogue with the Iranian government. Many could be heard chanting, “Obama, Obama – either you’re with them or you’re with us,” witnesses said. (New York Times)

Excerpt 4 from Ynet News

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Behind Seized Arms Shipment – Hanan Greenberg
The IDF believes the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is behind the arms shipment intercepted by the Israel Navy. Military personnel are still unloading the thousands of rockets, shells and munitions stashed away in the Francop.

Many of the crates contained rockets, some with markings distinctive to Iranian munitions and others bearing the markings

of Chinese and Spanish manufacturers.

Israel hoped the operation will deter shipping companies, European harbors and insurance companies from doing business with seemingly innocent Iranian vessels which can blow up at any time. (Ynet News)

Excerpt 5 from Jerusalem Post

Netanyahu: Ship Proves Iran Supports Terror – Yaakov Katz and Tovah Lazaroff

Prime Minister Netanyahu said Wednesday: “Iran is sending these weapons to terror organizations to harm Israeli cities and kill its citizens….The time has come for the international community to exert real pressure on Iran to stop this criminal activity and to support Israel when it defends itself against these terrorists and their patrons….Whoever still needed decisive proof that Iran continues to send weapons to terrorist organizations received it today in a very clear and unequivocal way.” (Jerusalem Post)

Excerpt 6 from Haaretz

An Early Win in the Next War – Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff

Senior Israeli navy officers say the seized shipment – destined for the Syrian port of Latakia – contained enough armaments to last Hizbullah for a month of fighting against Israel. The amount of weapons captured suggests an army, not a terrorist organization. Israel’s naval operation was not routine: The commandos boarded the vessel amid stormy seas and high winds – but they knew what they were looking for thanks to detailed intelligence. (Ha’aretz)

International Pressure on Tehran Is Having an Impact – Yossi Melman

The containers on the ship Francop were marked with the acronym IRISL, a state-controlled company listed by the UN Security Council in its sanctions resolutions against Iran due to its role in transporting equipment for Tehran’s nuclear and missile programs. The fact that Iran is trying to ship arms under the guise of civilian cargo suggests that the pressure exerted by the international community is having an impact. (Ha’aretz)

End 6 Excerpts

Begin My Comments

What a Difference a “HE” Makes!

More than 35 years ago I accepted the Pastorate of Dardanelle MBC, while still a Seminary student. I attended the University of Arkansas in Little Rock and Arkansas Tech University during the summers of my time in Seminary because it did not offer summer courses. I graduated from the Seminary in 1975 while enrolled full time at Arkansas Tech University, from which I graduated and began teaching at Dardanelle High School in 1977. I have not changed my beliefs on any of the things I was taught in Seminary concerning salvation, security of the believer, the two church ordinances, or the local identity of the church. However, there are many things I once believed in prophecy that I am no longer able to teach with any conviction. I came to Dardanelle MBC like Peter Cottontail, hopping down the bunny trail, believing I was ready to teach prophecy. As I studied the doctrines of salvation, the church, and the church ordinances I discovered realms of Scripture to validate what I had been taught, but when I began to search for Scriptures that would fit all the diagrams from which I was teaching prophecy, I found very few I did not have to distort.

I retired as a synoptic analyst in the National Security Agency, and I know quite well how to put the pieces of a puzzle together to form a whole premise. Matthew, Mark, Luke, and John are called the Synoptic Gospels, and they can be pieced together synoptically into a Harmony of the Gospels. All the pieces of the salvation-church-ordinances puzzle came together and formed a perfect picture of conformity, but the many pieces of the prophecy puzzle simply would not mesh together, unless I symbolized or spiritualized to a massive degree.

I found that in our work there was indeed agreement on the doctrines of salvation, the two church ordinances, and the church itself, but in prophecy I found “first of the weekers,” mid-tribbers,” “seventh trumpers,” “last of the weekers,” split rapturists,” and “progressive rapturists” – Or Pre, Mid, Seventh Trump, Post, Split, and Progressive positions. I knew there had to be a reason for these great divisions, and was hopeful that perhaps the answer might be found in a historical search to see if all of them have always existed and, if not, when did each one arise. During all my research I discovered that before 1740 Bible expositors believed the “HE” in Daniel 9:27 was not the antichrist, but the true one, Jesus Christ.

This correlated with what I had been taught early in life, and I became convinced they were correct.

BEGIN EXPOSITION OF DANIEL 9:27

Daniel 9:27 – And HE shall confirm the covenant with many for one week: and in the midst of the week HE shall cause the sacrifice and the oblation to cease, and for the overspreading of abominations HE shall make it desolate, even until the consummation, and that determined shall be poured upon the desolate.

I was fully aware of all this by 1992, but out of cowardice as to what I knew I would face from the bulk of my brethren, I would only teach it at the church I have pastored since 1974. My cowardice did not cause me to lie to the brethren – I simply stopped talking about the first three and one-half years of Daniel’s 70th week in my lectures, stopped presenting the worldwide antichrist empire that is taught today, and honed in on the last 1260 days of the tribulation period.

I have believed the Seventh Trumpet position since 1982, and that the “HE” of Daniel 9:27 was Jesus since 1992.

Knowing that I must soon face my Savior, and give account of all I have taught from his Word, I decided to publicly declare what I believe about Daniel 9:27, for better or for worse. Many of the men who taught me prophecy, whom I love and deeply respect, may well denounce me and regret ever having known me, but I will one day stand before the judgment seat of Christ and, in all conscience, I cannot continue to keep this to myself. I was taught synoptic analysis in the AWS and NSA, and contextual analysis in Seminary. The synoptic subject of the contextual discourse in every verse of Daniel 9:24 to 27 is the Messiah the Prince, Jesus Christ. In verse 24 Jesus is “the most Holy” who is anointed. In verse 25 Jesus is “the Messiah the Prince.” In verse 26 Jesus is identified as “Messiah” who is cut off. And in verse 27 Jesus is the “he” who confirmed God’s blood covenant at his death in the “midst” of the last week of Daniel’s 70 weeks of years. Jesus has already confirmed most of the first three and one-half of the last week of seven prophetic years.

The prophet Isaiah, who wrote some 150 years before Daniel, whose writings were likely in Daniel’s possession when he wrote during Babylonian captivity, wrote of the one who would fulfill the “covenant” of Daniel 9:27.

Isaiah 42:6 – I the Lord have called thee in righteousness, and will hold thine hand, and will keep thee, and give thee for a covenant of the people, for a light of the Gentiles;

Simeon clearly revealed Jesus as the one who had come to fulfill the covenant to his people Israel, and as a light to lighten the Gentiles.

Luke 2:25-32 – And, behold, there was a man in Jerusalem, whose name was Simeon; and the same man was just and devout, waiting for the consolation of Israel: and the Holy Ghost was upon him. [26] And it was revealed unto him by the Holy Ghost, that he should not see death, before he had seen the Lord’s Christ. [27] And he came by the Spirit into the temple: and when the parents brought in the child Jesus, to do for him after the custom of the law, [28] Then took he him up in his arms, and blessed God, and said, [29] Lord, now lettest thou thy servant depart in peace, according to thy word: [30] For mine eyes have seen thy salvation, [31] Which thou hast prepared before the face of all people; [32] A light to lighten the Gentiles, and the glory of thy people Israel.

The word “he” in Daniel 9:27 does not refer back to the “prince that shall come” in Daniel 9:26 – That prince has already come, and the ones he led destroyed the temple and the city of Jerusalem in 70 AD. The “he” refers not to a coming antichrist, but to the contextual subject of each verse from 24 to 27 – Messiah the Prince, Jesus Christ. I am not waiting for an antichrist to destroy a sanctuary that was destroyed in Jerusalem more than 1900 years ago.

I am waiting for the return of a Messiah who was cut off for my sins in the “midst” of Daniel’s last week after having fulfilled most of the first three and one-half years of it.

The covenant was finished when the veil of the temple was rent in twain from the top to the bottom, and a token sign of its fulfillment was manifested by resurrection of many of the Old Testament saints, who came out of their graves after his resurrection.

John 19:30 – When Jesus therefore had received the vinegar, he said, It is finished: and he bowed his head, and gave up the ghost.

Matthew 27:50-53 – Jesus, when he had cried again with a loud voice, yielded up the ghost. [51] And, behold, the veil of the temple was rent in twain from the top to the bottom; and the earth did quake, and the rocks rent; [52] And the graves were opened; and many bodies of the saints which slept arose, [53] And came out of the graves after his resurrection, and went into the holy city, and appeared unto many.

You will find a thorough verse-by-verse exposition of Daniel 9:24 to 27 in our Prophecy Archives in Prophecy Updates 55, 56, 57, and 58, but I will, in this Update, exposit on verse 27 as it relates to Christ.

Daniel 9:27 – And he shall confirm the covenant with many for one week: and in the midst of the week he shall cause the sacrifice and the oblation to cease, and for the overspreading of abominations he shall make it desolate, even until the consummation, and that determined shall be poured upon the desolate.

“He” is used three times. In each case it pertains to Jesus the Messiah. ”He” began to “confirm the covenant” with the “many” who would believe he was the one sent to confirm it when he was baptized in water by John, and he completed the covenant when he was crucified in his baptism by fire at Golgotha in the “midst” of Daniel’s 70th week, some three and one-half years after his water baptism. His water baptism pictured what would finish the covenant some three and one-half years later when he died, was buried, and then resurrected to complete the covenant. I am of the opinion he fulfilled the covenant during the first 1185 days of Daniel’s last week, and that the remaining 1335 days will begin when Israel actually trusts in its own power and might, having defeated Islamic forces in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, and two Lebanese encounters, to be able to maintain their own “peace and safety.” God will humble Israel in the Negev Wilderness when they are driven into the Negev and remain there for 1260 days. I believe it will take the Islamic forces some 75 days or two and one-half prophetic months to drive Israeli forces into the Negev.

Continuing to exposit on Daniel 9:27:

“He” caused “the sacrifice and oblation to cease” being acceptable to his Father when he became the true sacrifice that made void all the offerings, which had only pictured what he would do to confirm the covenant.

“He” made the Temple and its offerings spiritually desolate because of “the overspreading of abominations” he had twice cleaned out of it.

The Temple had become a den of thieves and those who ministered in it had turned into blind guides.

Matthew 23:37,38 – O Jerusalem, Jerusalem, thou that killest the prophets, and stonest them which are sent unto thee, how often would I have gathered thy children together, even as a hen gathereth her chickens under her wings, and ye would not! [38] Behold, your house is left unto you desolate.

Matthew 21:12,13 – And Jesus went into the temple of God, and cast out all them that sold and bought in the temple, and overthrew the tables of the moneychangers, and the seats of them that sold doves, [13] And said unto them, It is written, My house shall be called the house of prayer; but ye have made it a den of thieves.

Matthew 23:23,24 – Woe unto you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! for ye pay tithe of mint and anise and cummin, and have omitted the weightier matters of the law, judgment, mercy, and faith: these ought ye to have done, and not to leave the other undone. [24] Ye blind guides, which strain at a gnat, and swallow a camel.

“He” has made the Temple and all its sacrifices “desolate, even unto the consummation” of this present age.

They will not be restored until Jesus returns at his Second Advent.

Matthew 23:38,39 – Behold, your house is left unto you desolate. [39] For I say unto you, Ye shall not see me henceforth, till ye shall say, Blessed is he that cometh in the name of the Lord.

The “consummation” of this present age will end when “that determined will be poured upon the desolate” men and women of this present age of the Gentiles who are spiritually desolate, having not the Spirit of Christ. And that determined will be poured out on the antichrist, who will be in a position where no one can help him, as well as his false prophet, and both will then be cast into a lake of fire burning with brimstone. The battle of Armageddon is the consummation of this age, and the last days of the tribulation period will see Michael the Archangel deal with the forces of evil during the pouring out of the vials of wrath.

Romans 2:28,29 – For he is not a Jew, which is one outwardly; neither is that circumcision, which is outward in the flesh: [29] But he is a Jew, which is one inwardly; and circumcision is that of the heart, in the spirit, and not in the letter; whose praise is not of men, but of God.

Daniel 11:45 to 12:1 – And he shall plant the tabernacles of his palace between the seas in the glorious holy mountain; yet he shall come to his end, and none shall help him. [1] And at that time shall Michael stand up, the great prince which standeth for the children of thy people: and there shall be a time of trouble, such as never was since there was a nation even to that same time: and at that time thy people shall be delivered, every one that shall be found written in the book.

Matthew 24:21 – For then shall be great tribulation, such as was not since the beginning of the world to this time, no, nor ever shall be.

Revelation 19:19,20 – And I saw the beast, and

the kings of the earth, and their armies, gathered together to make war against him that sat on the horse, and against his army. [20] And the beast was taken, and with him the false prophet that wrought miracles before him, with which he deceived them that had received the mark of the beast, and them that worshipped his image. These both were cast alive into a lake of fire burning with brimstone.

Daniel 7:11 – I beheld then because of the voice of the great words which the horn spake: I beheld even till the beast was slain, and his body destroyed, and given to the burning flame.

Daniel’s 70 weeks of years clock stopped ticking when Jesus the Messiah was cut off in the “midst” of the last week. The Hebrew word “midst” in a seven year week could mean any time between the end of the third year and the beginning of the fifth year, in other words, at any time during the fourth year. I believe Jesus fulfilled the first 1185 days of the 2520 days in Daniel’s 70th week, and only 1335 days remain.

When the Israelis actually believe they have “peace and safety” enough to actually “say” it, then the clock will start to tick again, and they will thereafter be attacked some 1260 days before the final battle of Armageddon.

I Thessalonians 5:3,4 – For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape.

[4] But ye, brethren, are not in darkness, that that day should overtake you as a thief.

Revelation 12:6 – And the woman fled into the wilderness, where she hath a place prepared of God, that they should feed her there a thousand two hundred and threescore days.

Revelation 11:2 – But the court which is without the temple leave out, and measure it not; for it is given unto the Gentiles: and the holy city shall they tread under foot forty and two months.

Revelation 13:5 – And there was given unto him a mouth speaking great things and blasphemies; and power was given unto him to continue forty and two months.

I have been astounded to discover how much of our prophetic teaching about the antichrist’s reign, the tribulation period, the time of the rapture, and a multiplicity of all things related to prophecy, are all tied primarily to the interpretation that the “he” of Daniel is the antichrist. I have made my choice – I believe the majority of the prophetic teachers before 1740 were correct – I believe the “he” is Jesus. This has been a hard choice for me to make because of my very human desire to be accepted by my peers – what a difference a “he” makes!

END EXPOSITION OF DANIEL 9:27

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Diplomatic Dialog and Fair Speeches

Are a sign of Cowardice to Islamic Jihad,

It understands a subduing force and Power

Most Islamic states are ruled by strong Tyrants.

They must be dictators to hold iron & clay Factions

Of different ethnic tribes of Sunni and Shiites Together.

Antichrist – The MOST Ruthless & Powerful Man IN History,

Will be able to keep them united long enough to end the Age,

Because God will put it in Islamic Jihad hearts to follow Antichrist!

November 5, 2009

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Daniel 11:36,37 – And the king shall do according to his will; and he shall exalt himself, and magnify himself above every god, and shall speak marvellous things against the God of gods, and shall prosper till the indignation be accomplished: for that that is determined shall be done. [37] Neither shall he regard the God of his fathers, nor the desire of women, nor regard any god: for he shall magnify himself above all.

Revelation 17:12,13,17 – And the ten horns which thou sawest are ten kings, which have received no kingdom as yet; but receive power as kings one hour with the beast. [13] These have one mind, and shall give their power and strength unto the beast. 17] For God hath put in their hearts to fulfil his will, and to agree, and give their kingdom unto the beast, until the words of God shall be fulfilled.

Daniel 2:44 – And in the days of these kings shall the God of heaven set up a kingdom, which shall never be destroyed: and the kingdom shall not be left to other people, but it shall break in pieces and consume all these kingdoms, and it shall stand for ever.

Begin Excerpt from THE ASIA TIMES via World News

Middle East News

November 4, 2009

Obama’s world outreach teetering

By Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON – United States President Barack Obama’s extraordinary efforts since his first days in office to reassure Muslims in the Greater Middle East about US intentions in the region have suffered a series of setbacks that threaten to reverse whatever gains he has made over the past 10 months in restoring Washington’s badly battered image and influence there.

From Pakistan – where Secretary of State Hillary Clinton got an earful of growing anti-US sentiment last week – to the West Bank and East Jerusalem – where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has successfully defied Washington’s demands that he freeze Jewish settlement activity – events appear to have strayed far from the president’s original game plan.

As for the vast territory that lies between, the badly tarnished election victory by Afghan President Hamid Karzai raises new questions over the viability of a conflict Obama himself called as recently as August, “a war of necessity”. Meanwhile, Iran’s failure so far to accept a US-backed plan to export most of its low-enriched uranium (LEU) for reprocessing looks increasingly likely to foil his hopes for detente on that front.

A series of devastating bombings in recent weeks has also raised the specter of renewed ethnic and sectarian violence in Iraq, while a widely anticipated US rapprochement with Syria – as well as the resolution of the protracted political impasse in Lebanon – appears to have stalled.

Few analysts in Washington blame Obama alone for the lack of substantial progress on these fronts.

In a number of cases, unanticipated events, like the rapid deterioration in security in Afghanistan – and forces over which the administration exercises little or no control, such as the hardline governments and domestic politics of Israel and Iran – have sabotaged his hopes.

But disappointment is clearly on the rise among those here and in the region who believed that Obama’s realist foreign policy strategy of “engaging” foes, and his oft-repeated determination to achieve a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict “from day one” of his presidency promised rapid improvement in Washington’s standing after eight years of decline under former president George W Bush.

“There is a general concern now, especially in the Arab world, that the administration is not delivering with respect to any issues in the region,” said Chas Freeman, a former ambassador to Saudi Arabia who withdrew his appointment to chair the National Intelligence Council (NIC) this year in the face of a media campaign by neo-conservative critics close to Israel’ s Likud Party.

“I think there’s been quite a difference between how Obama as a person is perceived and how the US government as an institution is perceived,” he added. “I think what may be happening is that Obama is sinking into the generally negative view of the US government in the region rather than transcending it as he once did.”

“He started really well, particularly in his speeches in Istanbul [in April] and in Cairo [in June], in changing how the region perceives America and in setting forth a vision of the kinds of relationships he wanted,” said Steven Clemons, director of the American Strategy Project at the New America Foundation.

“But those words have not been followed up by the kind of deep restructuring of policy vis-a-vis Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, and the Palestinians that [former President Richard] Nixon implemented toward China,” he added. “If he had done so, the trend lines we’re seeing in the region might not be as negative as they appear at the moment.”

Of all the problems he faces the region, Afghanistan is the most urgent and time-consuming.

Obama has been considering a recommendation from his military commanders to add some 44,000 US troops to the 68,000 already deployed there in order to repel Taliban advances and gain time for Washington and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies to build national and local governance capacity and the Afghan army so it can hold its own.

The request comes just eight months after the same military institution told Obama that a total of only 75,000 US troops were needed to achieve

the same goal. In the intervening period, not only has the Taliban made greater far greater strides – and killed more US and NATO forces – than anticipated, but the discredited election, combined with the Karzai government’s no torious corruption, is virtually certain

to make a US-led counter-insurgency campaign that much more difficult.

By calling the conflict against the Taliban a “war of necessity” and subsequently ruling out any drawdown of US forces, most analysts believe that Obama will approve if not all, then at least half of the military’s request.

But some experts are worried that any escalation in the US troop presence could prove counterproductive, not only in Afghanistan, where they risk being seen as enforcers of a corrupt regime’s writ, but also in neighboring Pakistan where Washington’s pressure to bend the government and army to its will has clearly spurred widespread resentment of the kind Clinton ran into last week.

“The more that a war is seen to be Americanized and a matter of American occupation, the more we [risk] unit[ing] the disparate elements that we place under the label of the Taliban and bring[ing] into the fight [against the US] many people who have no sympathy whatsoever for the Taliban,” noted Paul Pillar, a retired top Central Intelligence Agency analyst who served as National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia between 2000 and 2005, at a Rand Corporation conference in Washington last week.

Meanwhile, events in the rest of the Middle East also appear to be conspiring against Obama.

The renewed bombing campaign in Iraq, combined with rising tensions between Kurds and Arabs over the fate of Kirkuk, could yet force a slowdown in the planned withdrawal of US troops there, if not an unraveling of the relative stability achieved over the past two years.

At the same time, continued stalling by Iran over implementation of the low-enriched uranium export plan agreed in principle last month is making it increasingly difficult for the administration to resist intense and growing pressure from the so-called “Israel Lobby” and its Republican and Democratic allies in Congress to adopt what Clinton has called “crippling sanctions” against Tehran, even before the end of this year.

Not only would such a quick return to “sticks” risk nipping Obama’s engagement efforts in the bud, but it would also sharply escalate tensions between the two hardline governments in Tehran and Jerusalem, renewing speculation about whether Israel intends to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and how the US would react.

But perhaps the most serious cause for the growing skepticism surrounding Obama’s policy trajectory lies with his handling of the Israel-Palestine conflict, which his national security adviser, General James Jones, just last week identified as the “epicenter” of US challenges in the region and beyond.

Not only has the administration retreated from its early demand – voiced most bluntly by Clinton last May – that Israel freeze all settlement expansion. But it also praised – through Clinton herself during a visit to Israel this week – as “unprecedented” Netanyahu’s offer to “restrain” settlement growth for up to a year in order to help launch new peace talks.

At the same time, she publicly scolded Palestine Authority President Mahmoud Abbas – who had joined the administration’s demand for a total settlement freeze earlier this year – for making it a pre-condition for Palestinian participation in the talks, thus further undermining his position less than a month after initially bowing

to US pressure to shelve the Goldstone Report that documented war crimes allegedly committed by Israel during its Gaza campaign.

Calling her remarks a “slap in the face”, Arab League secretary general Amr Moussa said Washington appeared to be moving backwards.

“[W]e are once again the same vicious circle we were in in the 1990s,” he said, while other Arab commentators argued that it was difficult at this point to distinguish between Obama’s policy and the Annapolis process pursued by Bush in his last year in office.

“There had been growing skepticism in the region, and I suspect this apparent capitulation to Netanyahu and the Likud will turn skepticism into suspicion,” Freeman told Inter Press Service.

Jim Lobe’s blog on US foreign policy can be read at:

http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/.

(Inter Press Service)

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You may use material originated by this site.

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I WARNED ABOUT THIS DANGER IN THE SEVENTIES

God’s Great Spreading African Geological Rift Valley

Is opening east & west northward from South Africa

Through The Red Sea, Israel, & Lebanon Into Turkey,

And will one day produce A Raging Flood Basalt Valley

During the Tribulation Period FOR 1600 Furlongs in The

Jordan Valley from Eilat through the Dead Sea near The

End of the Age of the Gentiles and Jesus’ Second Advent!

I have Taught This for 35 years – Please Read the Excerpt

Of NOVEMBER 2 from ROCHESTER UNIVERSITY Via DECIMON

WHICH follows WEB SITE ARCHIVE BIRTH PANG NUMBER 16A

November 4, 2009

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Begin Excerpt from Our Birth Pangs Archives

BIRTH PANG NUMBER 16a

CHAPTER 18

THE GREAT WINEPRESS OF GOD

September 28, 2001

Revelation 14:19,20 – And the angel thrust in his sickle into the earth, and gathered the vine of the earth, and cast it into the great winepress of the wrath of God. [20] And the winepress was trodden without the city, and blood came out of the winepress, even unto the horse bridles, by the space of a thousand and six hundred furlongs.

This particular angel thrusts his sickle INTO the earth. We are advised in verse 20 as to WHERE the sickle makes its earthly penetration; somewhere in Israel “outside the city,” which is the city of Jerusalem.

The word used for winepress is “LENOS,” which means: “a trough dug in the earth, a ditch or canal, or anything shaped like a tub.” The winepresses with which John was familiar were rectangular in shape and made of, or dug out of, the rock of

the earth. Blood-red wine was made from grapes. The ripe clusters were carried in baskets and thrown into the press.

The winepress consisted of a shallow trough built above the ground, or excavated by chipping it out of limestone rocks in the earth.

There were also village and household winepresses, but since the one to which John refers is one in a vineyard field, one made by chipping out a rectangular trough in limestone rock, I will limit my discourse to that type. One end of this type was made lower, such that the blood-red liquid from the grapes would flow into it, after being pressed out by the feet of humans in the shallow end.

So both the upper and lower sections of the winepress presented a view of a blood-red trough in the crust of the earth.

John, in his vision, looks down upon the earth and, from this aerial view, recognized

the city of Jerusalem, a city he had looked down upon many times from the Mount of Olives. He beheld “without” (outside) Jerusalem, to the east, the greatest winepress ever seen by human eyes.

He saw a trough (lenos) in the earth 1600 furlongs (185 miles) in length. The opening of the earth caused by the angel’s sickle had caused blood (haima) to come up “out” (ek) of the winepress to a depth of about five feet (“unto the horse bridles”). The Greek word used for blood is haima, which can mean real blood, or any object taking on a blood red color, or any liquid that has a blood-red hue. The Hebrew word for blood is also used to describe a blood-red liquid rather than body blood, as we find stated in Genesis 49:11 – “Binding his foal unto the vine, and his ass’s colt unto the choice vine; he washed his garments in wine, and his clothes in the blood of grapes:” The moon will not turn to real blood in the Tribulation Period, but it will take on a blood-red hue, as is described by the use of the word haima in Revelation 6:12 – “And I beheld when he had opened the sixth seal, and, lo, there was a great earthquake; and the sun became black as sackcloth of hair, and the moon became as blood;” Before this Birth Pang is completed I will carefully pull together everything previously stated, and thereby put together a full exposition of Revelation 14:19,20. But for now I must take time to describe one of the most terrifying creations of God in the distant past: a flood-basalt plain.

In the distant past, six major rips in the crust of the earth have produced six great basaltic flood plains. These great cleavages of the earth’s crust occurred in zones along the dashed lines of Figure 3. They represent old magma extrusions associated with the initial stages of continental drift. Dr. W. Kenneth Hamblin, in his standard geological text, The Earth’s Dynamic Systems, states: “Where the rift system passes beneath a continent, the continental crust is split and great volumes of basalt are extruded and spread out over large areas of the continent. These great floods of lava fill the lowlands and depressions in the existing topography.” The rift system that passes beneath the continent from the Gulf of Aqabah northward through Israel is a prime candidate for the sudden creation of a raging flood basalt plain. The following quoted material, concerning flood basalt plains, was extracted from Volcano, volume 2 of A 1982 Time-Life series that examines the workings of the planet earth: “Flood basalts are generated atop the upper mantle. When tension opens fissures in the crust,

the fluid magma spurts directly to the surface. The sheer volume of it dwarfs all other volcanic activity: a week long flow can release 360 cubic miles of lava, 10 times the volume of Mount Rainier. Extremely fluid magma suddenly spurts to the surface through a line of hundred of offset dikes, each one as much as 15 miles long and fifty feet wide.

The lava from such individual fissures, about five cubic miles per day, is so hot and runny that it speeds down the slightest slope at speeds up to 10 miles an hour, creating a lava sheet as much as 100 miles wide. Standard textbooks note, “sooner or later they must recur.” This liquid rock can hit the surface at temperatures from 2300 to 2900 degrees Fahrenheit. This is double the temperature required to cremate a human body. At these temperatures, the flesh would disappear from the body before it hit the ground, were it directly exposed to the initial air heat flash surge near the crack through which the magna extruded. All that would remain would be a human skeleton. At the same time that the Mount of Olives cleaves in its midst, and all the land in Israel from Geba to Rimmon is lifted up, what follows will happen to the antichrist’s army in the Jordan River Valley, as indicated in Zechariah 14:3-12.

Zechariah 14:12 – And this shall be the plague wherewith the Lord will smite all the people that have fought against Jerusalem; Their flesh shall consume away while they stand upon their feet, and their eyes shall consume away in their holes, and their tongue shall consume away in their mouth.

At some point in time, near the end of the Tribulation Period, the great rift valley of Israel will suddenly rip open from one end to the other. For a period of time after this ripping a vast flood basalt plain will be created along a 1600 furlough (185 mile) section of the valley. Looking down on it from heaven in his vision it looked like a north-south winepress.

It was east of Jerusalem, along the Jordan River Valley, as a long rectangular trough in the crust of the earth filled with blood. Tremendous tectonic changes will completely restructure the entire valley from the Gulf of Aqabah to Lebanon. The fissures will close abruptly at the end of the Tribulation Period from the southern end of the Dead Sea to Lebanon. However, limited volcanic activity will continue south of the Dead Sea, in what once was Idumea, throughout Christ’s Millennial Reign from “generation to generation,” according to Isaiah.

Isaiah 34:8-10 – For it is the day of the Lord’s vengeance, and the year of recompences for the controversy of Zion. [9] And the streams thereof shall be turned into pitch, and the dust thereof into brimstone, and the land thereof shall become burning pitch. [10] It shall not be quenched night nor day; the smoke thereof shall go up for ever: from generation to generation it shall lie waste; none shall pass through it for ever and ever.

Now, considering John’s description of the great winepress in Revelation 14:19,20, in light of one of God’s fantastic creations in the earth, let us compare God’s linguistics with God’s science. What John saw looked like a great lenos (trough or ditch or canal) about 185 miles long. I call your attention to Figure 24, Part A, which is an excerpt from a 1970 diagram by Dr. Fruend showing both sides of the Dead Sea Rift. The long dashed black lines that run north and south along both sides of the Dead Sea, from the Gulf of Aqabah through Israel, are great fissures in the crust of the earth. These fissures erratically weave down through the crust of the earth to eventually make contact with great undersea lakes of magma.

Part A of Figure 24 gives a picture of these fissures as though you were looking down on them from a satellite, while Part B pictures the same fissures as though you were deep within the earth looking northward, and could see their downward progression into the earth. These fissures are where they should be to comply with the description by John. They are “without the city,” which is Jerusalem. And the word lenos does fit

the characteristics of the Jordan River Valley, which is a great trough in the crust of the earth.

John saw haima come up out the lenos to cover an area some 185 miles long. John viewed a blood-red liquid (haima), which we call lava, spread across the great trough (lenos) to fill what we know as the Jordan River Valley. And the blood-red liquid filled the valley to a depth of about five feet (height of a horse bridle). Please note that, on Part A of Figure 24, a lone fissure veers off from the main trough, then extends northwest past the Tel of Armageddon, and finally goes on to Haifa, where it meets the Mediterranean Sea. If you measure northward from the northern tip of the Gulf of Aqabah to the point of departure by the fissure that extends to Haifa, you will discover it is 1600 furlongs, or 185 miles. I believe this 185 mile section of the Jordan River trough is the great winepress that John saw filled with a blood-red fluid as he looked down upon the earth in his vision.

Please observe Figure 25.

God, for some time, has brought an unbelievable tonnage of hot flowing rock upward into the Red Sea Fault. As this liquid rock makes contact with the water- cooled Red Sea floor, it solidifies into new basaltic crust. This new crust is forcing two great plates, the Arabian and African, to move away from one another at a rapid geological rate. This particular segment is moving faster than others in the Middle East. Please note that, on Figure 25, while the Red Sea section of the fault is spreading rapidly, the great Rift Fault running up both sides of the Jordan Valley, is locked tighter than a drum. Long ago God pushed together these two great tectonic plates, which are separated only by the Jordan Rift Valley between them. God’s horizontal pressure fused both sides of the valley floor to these plates, like one would push together two pieces of clay. It is this horizontal pressure that locks the fissures in place and prevents magma from spurting to the surface on both sides of the valley. The locked section, (See Figure 26), is held together by a strong tensional force placed there by God. In the Red Sea section of the rift God is generating a force that is in direct opposition to His tensional force that locks the section through Israel. Tensional forces are building in the Gulf of Aqabah, and soon the southern opposing force will end a long struggle by ripping apart the northern section to form a flood basalt plain. It will be sudden, abrupt, and horrifying.

God will suddenly create flood basalt plains 185 miles long that begin at the Gulf of Aqabah, and then extend up to the east end of the Valley of Jezreel. On both sides of the Jordan River Valley hot fountains of blood-red liquid, now confined by pressure below the fissures of Figure 27, will suddenly shoot hundreds of feet into the air. And a heat flash will blast toward the west to reach the foothills of the mountains of Judea, Samaria, and Galilee, and toward the east to smash against the bluffs of the mountains of Moab and Ammon. I believe Figure 28 is what John saw from the air in Revelation 14:19,20. When the angel, who has authority to say when fire is to be released on the earth, tells the angel that has the sickle to stick it into the earth, then as the sickle goes in, the vine of the of the earth (the antichrist’s army) will feel the wrath of God. God does not have to use the creations of man to fulfill his prophecies. As he did in the flood of Noah, he will destroy man “with the earth,” but this time it will be fire from the earth, rather than water on the earth.

Revelation 14:18 – And another angel came out from the altar, which had power over fire; and cried with a loud cry to him that had the sharp sickle, saying, Thrust in thy sharp sickle, and gather the clusters of the vine of the earth; for her grapes are fully ripe.

Begin Excerpt from University of Rochester via DECIMON

African Desert Rift Confirmed as New Ocean in the Making

University of Rochester

November 2, 2009 | Unknown

Posted on Monday, November 02, 2009 2:05:11 PM by decimon

Geologists Show that Seafloor Dynamics Are at Work in Splitting African Continent

In 2005, a gigantic, 35-mile-long rift broke open the desert ground in Ethiopia. At the time, some geologists believed the rift was the beginning of a new ocean as two parts of the African continent pulled apart, but the claim was controversial.

Now, scientists from several countries have confirmed that the volcanic processes at work beneath the Ethiopian rift are nearly identical to those at the bottom of the world’s oceans, and the rift is indeed likely the beginning of a new sea.

The new study, published in the latest issue of Geophysical Research Letters, suggests that the highly active volcanic boundaries along the edges of tectonic ocean plates may suddenly break apart in large sections, instead of little by little as has been predominantly believed. In addition, such sudden large-scale events on land pose a much more serious hazard to populations living near the rift than would several smaller events, says Cindy Ebinger, professor of earth and environmental sciences at the University of Rochester and co-author of the study.

“This work is a breakthrough in our understanding of continental rifting leading to the creation of new ocean basins,” says Ken Macdonald, professor emeritus in the Department of Earth Science at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and who is not affiliated with the research. “For the first time they demonstrate that activity on one rift segment can trigger a major episode of magma injection and associated deformation on a neighboring segment. Careful study of the 2005 mega-dike intrusion and its aftermath will continue to provide extraordinary opportunities for learning about continental rifts and mid-ocean ridges.”

“The whole point of this study is to learn whether what is happening in Ethiopia is like what is happening at the bottom of the ocean where it’s almost impossible for us to go,” says Ebinger. “We knew that if we could establish that, then Ethiopia would essentially be a unique and superb ocean-ridge laboratory for us. Because of the unprecedented cross-border collaboration behind this research, we now know that the answer is yes, it is analogous.”

Atalay Ayele, professor at the Addis Ababa University in Ethiopia, led the investigation, painstakingly gathering seismic data surrounding the 2005 event that led to the giant rift opening more than 20 feet in width in just days. Along with the seismic information from Ethiopia, Ayele combined data from neighboring Eritrea with the help of Ghebrebrhan Ogubazghi, professor at the Eritrea Institute of Technology, and from Yemen with the help of Jamal Sholan of the National Yemen Seismological Observatory Center. The map he drew of when and where earthquakes happened in the region fit tremendously well with the more detailed analyses Ebinger has conducted in more recent years.

Ayele’s reconstruction of events showed that the rift did not open in a series of small earthquakes over an extended period of time, but tore open along its entire 35-mile length in just days. A volcano called Dabbahu at the northern end of the rift erupted first, then magma pushed up through the middle of the rift area and began “unzipping” the rift in both directions, says Ebinger.

Since the 2005 event, Ebinger and her colleagues have installed seismometers and measured 12 similar—though dramatically less intense—events.

“We know that seafloor ridges are created by a similar intrusion of magma into a rift, but we never knew that a huge length of the ridge could break open at once like this,” says Ebinger. She explains that since the areas where the seafloor is spreading are almost always situated under miles of ocean, it’s nearly impossible to monitor more than a small section of the ridge at once so there’s no way for geologists to know how much of the ridge may break open and spread at any one time. “Seafloor ridges are made up of sections, each of which can be hundreds of miles long. Because of this study, we now know that each one of those segments can tear open in a just a few days.”

Ebinger and her colleagues are continuing to monitor the area in Ethiopia to learn more about how the magma system beneath the rift evolves as the rift continues to grow.

Additional authors of the study include Derek Keir, Tim Wright, and Graham Stuart, professors of earth and environment at the University of Leeds, U.K.; Roger Buck, professor at the Earth Institute at Columbia University, N.Y.; and Eric Jacques, professor at the Institute de Physique du Globe de Paris, France.

About the University of Rochester

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Located in Rochester, N.Y., the University gives students exceptional opportunities for interdisciplinary study and close collaboration with faculty through its unique cluster-based curriculum. Its College, School of Arts and Sciences, and Hajim School of Engineering and Applied Sciences are complemented by the Eastman School of Music, Simon School of Business, Warner School of Education, Laboratory for Laser Energetics, Schools of Medicine and Nursing, and the Memorial Art Gallery.

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THE STRAIGHT SKINNY ON DANGERS OF OBAMACARE

November 4, 2009

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Abraham Katsman gives the best outline on the dangers of Obamacare I have read since Fox News began to expose them. It is straightforward, very comprehensive, and void of misinformation. I hope you will take the time to read it. Americans, in general, are not well versed on the complexity of the U.S. health care system.

As a consequence of this, it is easy for liberal socialists to create chaos with false statistics in order to get ‘the man in the street’ to accept a deeply flawed system to replace the existing one, even though it has fewer problems than the new one they vote in. The current health system definitely needs improvement, and the time to change it is NOW, but not by the one currently being pushed on Americans against their will.

It will create a never ending governmental program of bureaucratic office paperwork that will drain the already shattered economy of America.

Begin Excerpt from THE JERUSALEM POST

Right of Reply: Good reasons to be wary of Obamacare

November 2, 2009

ABRAHAM KATSMAN , THE JERUSALEM POST

There’s been no shortage of nonsense and misinformation regarding opposition to President Barack Obama’s plans to overhaul America’s health care system. Unfortunately, the recent c ontributi

on on these pages by Pinchas Landau only makes matters worse.

In his column “Better dead than red” (September 4), Landau posits that only American selfishness and paranoia of anything labeled “socialized medicine” can account for what he deems unthinking, irrational opposition to governmental takeover of one-sixth of the US economy.

He summarizes all American opposition to nationalization thusly: “Better that they (the poor, elderly, etc.) die than that we use part of our massive wealth to provide them with health services commensurate with our country’s capabilities.”

Well. That’s an interesting perspective regarding a country that already provides substantially free medical care to 30 percent of its population – some 87 million poor people and seniors (heavily subsidized) through Medicare and Medicaid at a cost of approximately $900 billion, or more than $10,000 per recipient per year.

Landau compounds his spurious assessment with “amazing facts” (i.e., one easily refuted statistical canard after another). To begin with, he contends that “at least 25%-30%” of Americans (75 to 90 million people!) have no health insurance.

Please. Not even the shrillest advocates of nationalization use such exaggerated figures. According to Census Bureau data, the actual number is 15%.

And even that doesn’t tell the story. About half of those are not poor, but voluntarily choose to be self-insured.

The actual number of “involuntary uninsured” is around 20 million, about 7% of the population – not surprising with an unemployment rate at 10%. And about half of those are illegal immigrants.

Landau claims that “hordes of obese Americans” – his kind words – and their doctors waste “mind-boggling” amounts of money on care that could have been addressed far more cheaply by preventive measures. Notwithstanding his medical expertise on what screening and prevention is appropriate for each individual American, even the Congressional Budget Office refutes his assumptions of cost-savings.

Preventive care may be invaluable where appropriate on an individual level, but it certainly isn’t free, especially when used indiscriminately. CBO Director Doug Elmendorf notes that the definitive assessment in the New England Journal of Medicine reviewing hundreds of studies on preventive care found that more than 80% of preventive measures added to medical costs.

HE IGNORES the one area where mind-boggling money actually is wasted: doctors practicing “defensive” medicine; ordering needless tests with an eye on preventing malpractice suits. Yet Republican-supported tort reform has been squelched by Democrats protecting their generous constituency of trial lawyers.

Perhaps Landau’s most outlandish claim is that “20,000 [Americans] die every year because they have no medical services accessible to them.” Such a figure should make our nonsense-detectors set off alarms.

Inaccessible? Federal law requires hospitals to treat emergency-room patients regardless of insurance or ability to pay, and there are thousands of clinics offering free care.

More importantly, Landau’s figure comes from a “study” debunked about 10 minutes after release: The researchers asked people if they had health insurance; if they did not, and then died at any time in the next 10 years (whether or not they later got insurance), their death was attributed to lack of insurance, regardless of actual circumstances of death.

By that standard, having insurance kills about 3 million per year.

America has good reasons to be wary of further socialization of its medical system.

Current government medical spending is spiraling out of control, and – even according to Obama – is racked with fraud (currently $90 billion per year) and corruption. The current Obama-supported plans anticipate $1 trillion in new federal spending, add layers of bureaucracy (imagine the Post Office in charge of medical care) and a battery of new taxes that will drive up medical costs (confirmed by Obama’s own HHS Office of the Actuary) – and will still leave millions uninsured.

Yet, Landau suggests, opposing these plans is “McCarthyite”?

Americans have watched Canada’s socialized system degenerate over the years – now “imploding,” according to the new president of the Canadian Medical Association. Canadians, with only a 10th of the US population, wait weeks for everything – an average of nine months for orthopedic surgery and seven months for neurosurgery. Of course, Canadians frequently employ another option: Over the past 10 years, more than a million Canadians have declined their “free” care and crossed the border to pay for needed services in American hospitals.

American survival rates for diseases, perhaps the single-best measure of health care quality, are still unsurpassed. For example, for cancer – a disease where socialized medical wait-times can be lethal – American men have a 40% greater five-year survival rate than Europeans. American women have a 24% advantage. Why ruin that?

There are legitimate arguments for and against increased socialization of American health care. Landau’s misinformed diatribe, however, does not advance the discussion.

The writer is an American attorney and political commentator currently living in Jerusalem. He serves as Counsel to Republicans Abroad Israel.

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Shadow’s Edge of a Final War,

Starting Between 2010 & 2015.

Creeping toward our Generation,

A Conventional war Islam & Israel,

U.S. providing Israeli nuke Umbrella,

Russia providing Islam nuke Umbrella,

Russian & U.S. Ground Troops Not in It,

Russia doesn’t participate till Armageddon,

Which is the last battle of Age of the Gentiles!

November 3, 2009

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

I have always maintained the belief that the final war of this age will not be nuclear.

The Excerpt from BBC News on nuclear umbrellas is worth reading. I am also including a 2008 blog and article from our blog archives.

Begin 2008 August blog from our blog archives.

The U.S. participation in Middle East War

Will be logistically defensive in its Application

We won’t send ground forces to fight in Conflict

We will flood the Middle East waters with our Ships

But we will not commit any of our ground forces in War

U.S. stance will be money and support YES, body bags NO!

August 9, 2008

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Our “standing by” Israel will not be offensive when the final Middle East war begins.

We will provide logistic support after a truce is made and the truce line drawn north of Beersheba in the Negev Wilderness.

Because of Israel’s smashing victories over her Islamic foes in 1948, 1956, 1967, and 1973, her allies are certain she can whip the Arab forces with one hand tied behind her back.

However, for the first time Israel and all her friends are going to get the shock of their lives when Israel is quickly forced to retreat south into

her emergency war contingency area, which is the Negev Wilderness of Israel extending southward from just north of Beersheba.

America will protect Israel defensively with her ships in the Middle East Mediterranean and Red Seas, as well as in the Persian Gulf. She will provide Israel with humanitarian and logistical support, but I do not believe the U.S. will commit ground troops to Israel’s defense.

Begin Jerusalem Post Excerpt from 2008

US Defense Department pledges support for Arrow 3

August 6, 2008

Yaakov Katz , THE JERUSALEM POST

The US Defense Department has pledged its support to help Israel develop and finance the Arrow 3, head of US Missile Defense Agency Lt.-Gen. Henry Obering III told Israeli defense officials he met with on Wednesday in Tel Aviv.

Obering was in Israel on a three-day visit during which he met with Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, head of the Homa Missile Defense Agency Arieh Herzog, IAF Commander Maj.-Gen. Ido Nehushtan, Air Defense Forces Commander Brig.-Gen. Daniel Milo and officials from the Israeli Aerospace Industries.

The decision to help finance the multi-million dollar missile defense system did not come as a surprise. In May, The Jerusalem Post exclusively reported on a pledge US President George W. Bush had made to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, during his visit to Israel to celebrate Independence Day, to obtain funding for the project.

The Israeli defense establishment and the Homa Missile Defense Agency decided in April to press forward with the development and production of Arrow 3, a more advanced version – in terms of speed, range and altitude – of the Arrow 2 currently in operation. Israel last tested its Arrow missile in February 2007.

The decision to begin development of the Arrow 3 was made despite a proposal by Lockheed Martin to purchase the Aegis system or the THAAD (Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense) missile defense system it is developing.

Defense officials said that the THAAD was currently unsuitable for Israel’s needs and that an advanced model of the Arrow, made by IAI and Boeing, would successfully counter the ballistic missile threat from Iran and Syria.

Israeli defense officials added that in the event of a war with Iran, the US would likely deploy Aegis missile defense ships off Israel’s coast to assist in intercepting incoming ballistic missiles.

Development of the new system has already begun at IAI; Israel is not waiting to secure the funding for the new missile defense system, which will likely become operational by 2012.

Begin Excerpt from BBC News

The shadow behind US-Israeli war games

By Paul Wood

BBC Middle East correspondent

November 1, 2009

“We’re here for some very specific reasons, some specific threats that the Israelis are interested in, that we’re interested in. And that’s as far as I want to go down that road.”

Com Carl Meuser of the US Navy destroyer Higgins was interrupted at this point by an anxious public affairs officer. The scenario neither wanted to discuss with the circle of visiting journalists aboard his ship was this: Israel bombs Iranian nuclear facilities – and Iran hits back.

In that case, Israel would definitely need the missile shield – sophisticated long-range radars and Patriot anti-missile devices – being tested in joint war games this week.

“ The US could do it much better, but an Israeli campaign would be very short ”
Ronen Bergman, Israeli security analyst

Operation Juniper-Cobra involves some 2,000 American and Israeli personnel. It is a regular event, taking place every two years, but this year speculation is more intense than ever that Israel is prepared to bomb Iran to stop its supposed nuclear weapons programme.

But how likely are hostilities between Israel and Iran?

The frequent Israeli insistence that “all options are on the table” could just be a means of putting pressure on Tehran. And if there is an element of bluff, then the more we hear about the military option the less likely it will be.

Conversely, says Ronen Bergman, a leading Israeli security analyst and author, if things go quiet that might be time to think Israel is preparing to act.

“I would not expect any signs whatsoever,” he said, “if I was planning the attack I would do what I could to lower their alertness.”

Air power

“It is not a bluff,” said Isaac Ben Israel, a former general, now a professor of security studies at Tel Aviv University.

“It is putting pressure on Iran in order than no-one will have to use [force].

“But if Iran will not be pressed, if Iran continues to insist that it has the right to go and enrich uranium as much as it wants, then someone will have to use force.

Because in one th

ing we are serious.

We will not let Iran have a nuclear bomb.”

Is there an American veto over Israeli action? Ronen Bergman says Israeli has the military capability to go it alone.

“[It would be] a short campaign of air-strikes, focussing on the main facilities,” he said. “Of course, the US could do it much better, but an Israeli campaign would be very short, focussing on what Israel sees as the main elements of the project, and using only air power.”

Israeli distrust of Iran’s nuclear programme and a determination to do something about it forms a remarkably broad consensus across the military, the intelligence establishment, the government and the opposition.

Iran, of course, denies that its nuclear programme is anything other than peaceful. Israeli officials don’t believe it. From their point of view, the deal on uranium enrichment is a trap: not enough to stop the construction of a weapon but convincing to the rest of the world – and therefore a block to Israeli military action.

“Using military force is the last option but it should be prepared,” said Shaul Mofaz, deputy opposition leader, formerly Israel’s military commander and, coincidentally, an Iranian-born Jew.

How long then would you give sanctions to work before Israeli takes military action, I asked him?

“I believe 2010 will be the year of sanctions,” he said. “To see result of the sanctions would need at least one year and the co-operation of Russia and China. The Iranians are using a policy of buying time and so far they are very successful. It is race against time, and so far time is winning.”

A crude rocket was sent into Israel from Hezbollah guerrillas in southern Lebanon this week. It was – presumably – a message from Iran: if we are attacked, expect to hear from Hezbollah – and Hamas.

The Iranians themselves have long-range missiles capable of hitting Tel Aviv.

The Israeli public were reassured to see US Patriot missile trucks parked in beach-side car parks this week. Juniper Cobra is just an exercise – at best an ambiguous guide to Israeli intentions.

But shouldn’t the proposed deal for Iran to enrich uranium abroad mean the crisis is over

? Most Israelis don’t think so – and neither does their government.

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