blog.Tribulationperiod.com

SOMETHING’S GOT TO GIVE!

October 19, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

The cards have been dealt, and the bluffs are being made in the raises and calls. All the players are trying to figure what each of the others will do if they raise the stakes, or even more importantly, if they call their bluff.

If some of the players don’t drop out of the hand, and let

the two who have the most to lose put up or shut up, this could end up in a table shoot out.
In a head to head confront ation for the pot, Iran will fold to Israel, and wait for a better hand

at a future pot, which one of the players may already have advised her to do.

Begin Jerusalem Post Article

Analysis: The military option is now on the table

Herb Keinon, THE JERUSALEM POST

October 19, 2007

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert sat in a green-gilded room in the Kremlin on October 18 and told Russian President Vladimir Putin the Iranians needed to fear that if they continued with their nuclear march, “something will happen to them that they don’t want.”

Putin listened. That was on October 18, 2006.

Exactly a year later, one during which – in the words of former deputy defense minister Ephraim Sneh – the diplomats talked and the Iranian centrifuges spun, Olmert was back in the Kremlin.

In the intervening 365 days the Iranians continued to press on with their nuclear plans as the world fiddled with diplomacy and as Russian-US tensions soared to levels not felt in years.

The growing Washington-Moscow rift is not an insignificant factor in explaining the difficulty in forging a solid international front against Teheran.

The urgent manner in which Olmert dropped everything and jetted off to Moscow Thursday for a three-hour meeting with Putin indicates that Israel has changed phases.

It has gone from treating the Iranian problem as an international one, that the world has to deal with, to taking steps indicating that it sees it increasingly as an Israeli problem, that might necessitate an Israeli solution.

Olmert could have shrouded his visit to Moscow on Thursday in complete darkness. He very easily could have disappeared for a few hours, as he has done in the past when he reportedly met Saudi officials in Jordan, gone to Russia, returned for a late dinner, and no one would have known the difference.

But he didn’t. The Prime Minister’s Office made a conscious decision to alert the press to the visit, and it did so just 24 hours prior to the trip, creating an air of drama and adding to the excitement.

While Olmert, at his October 2006 meeting with Putin, said the issue of military action was not raised, it is safe to assume that it was raised – and how – during Thursday’s meeting, most of which was held in private.

Nobody is tiptoeing around the possibility of military action against Iran any more. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner raised the possibility of war a few weeks ago. Even British Prime Minister Gordon Brown didn’t rule anything out in comments he made in October, and US President George W.

Bush said Wednesday a nuclear Iran could trigger World War III.

Putin, for his part, warned against a military attack on Iran during his recent visit there. Israel’s raid on an alleged nuclear installation in Syria last month was widely interpreted as a clear message to the Iranians.

The military option is not only out there, but

is now very much a part of the discourse.

While details of Thursday’s meeting were obviously sparse, certain assumptions can be made.

The first is that the Russians do not need any more information about what the Iranians are doing.

The hesitancy of Russia, and China as well, to join the US and France in full-court sanctions against the Iranian program is not because they need to be convinced that the Iranians are interested in nuclear arms.

Regardless of comments Putin made in Iran that there was no concrete evidence Teheran is after nuclear weapons (what else was he going to say during the first visit by a Russian leader in more than 60 years), the former KGB man knows full well what the Iranians want.

Israel should not delude itself into thinking, therefore, that all it will take is for Olmert to sit down with Putin and show him the facts. Putin knows the facts, and the problem is not with Moscow’s intel. The problem is with Russia’ s own interpretation of it

s interests.

While Russia knows what Iran is after, the Russians also see it in their geopolitical interest to stand opposed to the US. They have a huge economic interest in not slapping sanctions on Iran, and they have a neighborhood interest in maintaining good relations in

the Caspian basin with Iran.

Olmert didn’t go to Russia to convince Putin; he went to underscore Israel’s sense of urgency in taking real action now.

This was necessary because as discussions about a third round of sanctions in the United Nations Security Council drag on, diplomatic momentum is waning. It is safe to assume that Olmert discussed with Putin the remaining options if the New York-based UN track fails, just as the International Atomic Energy Agency track failed before that.

But in addition to sending a message to Putin, Olmert also wanted to hear something in return. He wanted to know what deal Putin offered Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, during their meeting on Wednesday.

According to media reports, Putin proposed a new way to end the standoff during the meeting, though no details were provided.

Israel is keen on getting a handle on those details, as this could conceivably represent one of the last chances to stop Iran through nonmilitary means.

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Events Paint a Grim Future of Middle East Prophecy Fulfillment!

October 18, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

I cannot recall in recent times of such a bleak outlook for future events. Nothing appe

ars in the news to produce some temporary feeling of relief from a scenario of terror lurking in the not too distant future.

The following exclusive from DEBKAfile lists just a few of the many recent events which do not bode well for any future expectation of anything other than war.

Begin DEBKAfile Exclusive

DEBKAfile Exclusive: Warning letters delivered to thousands of Jewish families in Iran advise them to leave the country without delay

October 17, 2007, 11:04 PM (GMT+02:00)

The letters, according to DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources, have been posted to Jewish families in Tehran (where the community numbers some 13,000), Isfahan (under 2,000) and Shiraz (some 4,000). They are captioned: Danger! Danger! Danger! and tell recipients to try and reach the West with all possible speed.

Iranian Jews like the rest of the population face grave danger from impending events, the anonymous writers warn.

Wednesay, Oct. 17, President George W.

Bush spoke of World War Three if Iran which seeks to destroy Israel gains a nuclear bomb.

He s aid those who helped the Isl

amic Republic would be held responsible, a broad hint at Russia and China.

The Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert’s sudden trip to Moscow Thursday, Oct. 18, for one day there and back, and the two hours President Vladimir Putin has allotted for their conversation, tie in with these events.

DEBKAfile’s sources report that the meeting was requested by Olmert after he conferred with US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice on the last day of her Middle East shuttle, and with Washington. The prime minister is seeking Putin’s assurance that Russia will not complete construction of Iran’s nuclear reactor at Bushehr or supply the fuel for its activation.

Sources in Washington and Jerusalem decided to strike while the iron is hot, namely straight after Putin’s return from Tehran and before his final commitment to Tehran, in the hope of gaining his personal pledge to leave the reactor unfinished.

This would be an important obstacle to Iran’ s nuclear plan

s.

But our sources in Moscow judge these calculations are unrealistic. If Putin did not show his cards to the Iranian leaders in Tehran, they say, there is no chance of him giving Olmert any commitments. The Russian president is playing the world leader to the hilt. He will emphasize to the Israeli prime minister that Moscow has its own interests in the Middle East, just like the US and Israel.

The letters posted to Iranian Jews, our sources report, are not signed; they were postmarked from different towns in America and Europe and from private addresses so as not to raise the suspicions of Iranian security services.

All the same, some were discovered and confiscated, prompting Tehran to accuse Israel and world Zionist organizations of a campaign to scare its Jewish citizens.

In recent months, Iranian officials angrily held up a new Israeli offer of a one-time grant of $10,000 for every Iranian Jew migrating to Israel, over and above the regular grants for other immigrants. Learning of these incentives, the Iranian authorities not long ago ordered the Jewish deputy in the Majlis, Mauris Mo’tamed, to declare that the Jews of Iran cannot be bought for money and would never forsake their country.

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Turkey drawing closer to Iran in fighting Kurds and to Syria through Bilateral Ties!

October 17, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Recent developments, particularly in the last six months, show a very definite trend of Russia and China drawing closer together against the U.S. and Israel as demonstrated by massive military exercises practiced along their borders, secular Turkey returning to its Islamic roots amid contacts with Iran and Syria, and the former Soviet Union countries around the Caspian Sea showing how their majority Islamic occupants are linking with Islam rather then the West. The final act on the world stage is preparing itself for an eventual war in which Israel will find herself driven into the Negev, where she will remain for some three and one half years prior to Armageddon and the Second Advent of Messiah.

Begin Daily Star Article

Assad visits Turkey, may push for help reviving talks with Israel

Compiled by Daily Star Staff

October 17, 2007

Syrian President Bashar Assad arrived in Turkey Tuesday for a four-day visit to discuss regional issues and bilateral ties, Anatolia news agency reported.

Assad was to dine with Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gul on Tuesday evening ahead of formal talks on Wednesday that will include meetings with Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ali Babacan.

He will also travel to Istanbul before wrapping up his visit on Friday.

Last week, Assad said in interviews with two Tunisian newspapers that Turkey was trying to mediate between Syria and Israel. Turkey has close ties to Israel.

The visit comes weeks after Israeli warplanes carried out an airstrike in northeastern Syria near the border with Turkey against a target that remains unknown, though widespread reports say it may have been a nascent nuclear facility, a claim Syria has denied.

Turkey complained to Israel about the September 6 strike because the aircraft dropped fuel tanks on its territory during the incursion. Assad has said the planes struck an empty warehouse, but both Syria and Israel have been unusually silent over the incident.

Turkish-Syrian relations have improved in recent years since a long period of animosity ended in 1998 when Damascus forced Turkish Kurd rebel Abdullah Ocalan to leave his long-time safe haven in Syria.

Ocalan was subsequently captured in Kenya in 1999 and jailed for life.

Ankara believes it can use the thaw as leverage to help ease Middle East tensions, drawing also on its close ties with both Israel and the Palestinians.

Turkey’s foreign minister visited both Israel and Syria earlier in October.

“We have told them [the Turks] that our stance toward peace does not change.

All we want is a clear declaration by Israeli officials of their desire for peace and the return of [occupied] land to Syria,” the Syrian president said.

– Agencies

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JACK’S GIANT PICKS UP GOLDEN EGGS AROUND CASPIAN SEA BEANSTALK!

The Russian Giant visits his Gold Laying Iranian Goose looking for more Gold Laying Geese around the Caspian Sea!

October 17, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Begin Gulf News Article 1

Russia’s Putin arrives in Iran for talks

10/16/2007 09:49 AM | Agencies

Tehran: Russian President Vladimir Putin, brushing off the threat of a reported plot to assassinate him, arrived in Iran on Tuesday for talks focusing on Tehran’s nuclear row with the West.

In the first visit by a Kremlin leader since Josef Stalin’s in 1943, Putin will meet Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is fighting calls from Western powers to stop nuclear work that Washington says is aimed at building atomic bombs.

Tehran says its intentions are peaceful.

Putin was welcomed at Tehran’s Mehrabad airport by Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, pictures broadcast by state television showed.

The Russian leader is visiting Tehran to join a summit of Caspian Sea states but Russian officials have said discussion of Iran’s nuclear row will be high on the agenda for bilateral talks.

Russian officials had suggested on Monday Putin might not come after a Russian news agency reported a plot to kill him during his visit.

Putin said he would come anyway.

Iran dismissed the report of any assassination plot as an effort by Tehran’s enemies — a reference to Western powers — to undermine ties with Moscow.

Begin AP Jerusalem Post Article 2

Putin warns against using Caspian territories for attack on regional powers

Associated Press, THE JERUSALEM POST

October 16, 2007

Russia, Iran and

other Caspian Sea countries strongly warned outside nations on Tuesday against using their territories for launching military action, but they failed to reach an agreement on ways to divide the sea’s vast energy resources.

The declaration at the end of the summit of leaders from the five nations bordering the inland sea, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, did not name any countries but it was a clear reference to long-standing rumors that the US might be planning to use Azerbaijan, a former Soviet republic, as a staging ground for any possible military action against Iran.

“The parties underline that under no circumstances would they allow other nations to use their territory for waging aggression or other military action against any of the parties,” the declaration said.

The countries also offered a sign of support for Iran’s disputed nuclear program, stressing that any country that is signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty can “carry out research and can use nuclear energy for peaceful means without discrimination,” according to the declaration.

Earlier Tuesday Putin, whose trip to Iran is the first by a Kremlin leader since World War II, warned that projects of energy pipelines crossing the Caspian could only be implemented if all five littoral nations support them.

Moscow has strong opposition to US-backed efforts to build pipelines to deliver Central Asian and Caspian hydrocarbons to the West bypassing Russia.

The legal status of the Caspian – believed to contain the world’s third-largest energy reserves – has been in limbo since the 1991 Soviet collapse, leading to tension and conflicting claims to seabed oil deposits.

Iran, which shared the Caspian’s resources equally with the Soviet Union, insists that each coastal nation receive an equal portion of the seabed.

Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan want the division based on the length of each nation’s shoreline, which would give Iran a smaller share.

Turkmenistan is also vying for the Caspian’s resources.

The countries failed to reach an agreement on dividing the Caspian, but they agreed to continue holding regular talks. Ahmadinejad said the next Caspian summit will be held next year in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Following the summit, Putin and Ahmadinejad went into private talks. Putin indicated the meeting would touch on the Iran’s disputed nuclear program, but he did not elaborate.

Iran’s state-run television quoted Putin as saying Moscow would continue to support Iran.

“Responsible bodies in Russia will assist Iran’s peaceful nuclear program,” the television quoted Putin as saying as the Russian president entered his meeting with Ahmadinejad.

Observers at the talks said Iran’s nuclear chief, Gholamreza Aghazadeh, would also attend the meeting.

Putin also planned to meet with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Putin’s visit is taking place amid hopes that a round of personal diplomacy could help offer a solution to an international standoff on Iran’s nuclear program.

The Russian leader’s trip had been thrown into doubt when the Kremlin said Sunday that he had been informed by Russian special services that suicide attackers might try to kill him in Teheran, but he shrugged off the warning.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini called the reports disinformation spread by adversaries who hoped to spoil good relations between Russia and Iran.

Putin has warned the US and other nations against trying to coerce Iran into reining in its nuclear program and insists peaceful dialogue is the only way to deal with Teheran’s defiance of a UN Security Council demand that it suspend uranium enrichment.

Iran’s rejection of the council’s demand and its previous clandestine atomic work has fed suspicions in the US and others that Teheran is secretly trying to develop nuclear weapons. Iran insists its program is for peaceful purposes, including generating electricity.

Putin underlined his disagreements with Washington last week, saying he saw no “objective data” to prove claims that Iran is trying to construct nuclear weapons. On Monday, he emphasized that he would negotiate in Teheran on behalf of the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany, a group that has led efforts to resolve the stalemate with Teheran.

In Washington, State Department spokesman Tom Casey said the US government expected Putin to “convey the concerns shared by all of us about the failure of Iran to comply with the international community’s requirements concerning its nuclear program.”

While the Kremlin has shielded Teheran from a US push for a third round of UN sanctions, Iran has voiced annoyance about Moscow’s foot-dragging in building a nuclear power plant in the southern port of Bushehr under a $1 billion contract.

Russia has warned that the plant would not be launched this fall as planned because Iran was slow in making payments. Iranian officials have angrily denied any payment arrears and accused the Kreml in of cav

ing in to Western pressure.

Moscow also has ignored Iranian demands to ship fuel for the plant, saying it would be delivered only six m

onths before the Bushehr plant goes on line. The launch date has been delayed indefinitely amid the payment dispute.

Begin DEBKAfile Article 3

Putin and Ahmadinejad lead Caspian Sea Tehran summit in reciprocal non-aggression pledge, but disappoints Iran on Bushehr

October 16, 2007, 6:32 PM (GMT+02:00)

The Russian president disappointed his Iranian hosts by refusing to set a date for completing the Bushehr nuclear reactor, blaming worn-out equipment from the time of the Shah and “legal issues.”

The presidents of Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan agreed that no Caspian Sea country should be used as a launch-pad for a military strike against a fellow littoral nation.

DEBKAfile’s sources report this decision has bound member-states hosting US bases to withhold their use for attacking Iran.

On Sept. 22, DEBKAfile reported: “Sitting together at the Caspian Sea Summit next month, Putin and Ahmadinejad will be broadcasting a message to Washington and the nations of Central Asia that the future and security of Caspian natural resources and oil do not depend entirely on their relations with Washington, or even the US military bases going up on their soil. Russia will be posing a stiff challenge to America in Central Asia by holding out the offer of joint-strategic sponsorship with Iran.”

The Caspian summit which opened Tuesday is expected to lead to an agreement on legalizing the status of the rich Caspian resources and dividing them among its five littoral states – to the exclusion of interests outside the region.

The five Caspian nations also confirmed the right of each nation to produce nuclear energy for peaceful ends. Tehran is locked in a standoff with the US and Europe over their conviction that its “peaceful” program is the cover for a weapons drive.

Vladimir Putin, the first Russian president to visit Tehran since the Second World War, said after meeting French President Nicolas Sarkozy last week that he has no information of any such drive.

Putin touched down in Tehran after brushing off warnings of an assassination plot in Tehran. DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources disclosed exclusively on Sun, Oct. 14, that three terrorist groups, Chechen separatists, al Qaeda and an ultra-radical faction of the Iranian regime had combined for a bid to murder Putin and that the plot was betrayed to Russian security agencies by a Chechen captured on his way to join the conspiracy.

Begin New Zealand Herald Excerpt 4

Putin invites Iranian president to Moscow

9:04AM Wednesday October 17, 2007

Russian President Vladimir Putin has invited Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to travel to Moscow.

TEHRAN – Russian President Vladimir Putin invited Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to travel to Moscow for talks, Russian news agency Interfax reported.

The invitation followed a meeting between Putin and Ahmadinejad, who is fighting calls from Western powers to stop nuclear work that Washington says is aimed at building atomic bombs. Tehran says its intentions are peaceful.

“Ahmadinejad accepted the invitation with gratitude. The parties agreed to clear the dates for the visit through diplomatic channels,” Interfax quoted the two leaders as saying in a joint statement.

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All of the “10” are destined for a Collision with Israel – Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Sudan.

October 17, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

For a full exposition of the four Scriptures from Daniel and Revelation, which follow, please consult Archive Prophecy Update Numbers 233B, 234A, 235A, 236A, and 236B.

Daniel 2:41,42 – And whereas thou sawest the feet and toes, part of potters’ clay, and part of iron, the kingdom shall be divided; but there shall be in it of the strength of the iron, forasmuch as thou sawest the iron mixed with miry clay. [42] And as the toes of the feet were part of iron, and part of clay, so the kingdom shall be partly strong, and partly broken.

Daniel 7:24,25 – And the ten horns out of this kingdom are ten kings that shall arise: and another shall rise after them; and he shall be diverse from the first, and he shall subdue three kings. [25] And he shall speak great words against the most High, and shall wear out the saints of the most High, and think to change times and laws: and they shall be given into his hand until a time and times and the dividing of time.

Revelation 13:1 – And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw a beast rise up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and upon his horns ten crowns, and upon his heads the name of blasphemy.

Revelation 17:12,13 – And the ten horns which thou sawest are ten kings, which have received no kingdom as yet; but receive power as kings one hour with the beast. [13] These have one mind, and shall give their power and strength unto the beast.

Begin Jerusalem Post Article

Are the United States and Turkey on a collision course?

Gallia Lindenstrauss, Special for the Jerusalem Post

October 15, 2007

Turkish-American relations face two significant challenges. One has to do with the Turkish inclination to enter northern Iraq in order to deal with Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) fighters operating there.

The other is connected with an upcoming US House of Representatives vote on a resolution to recognize as genocide the mass killings of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire during World War I.

Both challenges touch on very sensitive issues for the Turks, who are convinced that the US is insufficiently attentive to their needs and demands.

The Turks have threatened to intervene in northern Iraq on several occasions since the fall of Saddam Hussein, but they now appear more determined than ever to do so.

In addition to the massive buildup near the border, the government has now decided to ask for parliamentary approval to send forces into Iraq. This decision follows the killing of 30 soldiers and civilians by the PKK in the last two weeks, in what are considered unusually severe actions by the PKK. According to the Turks, the US has consistently failed to act against PKK fighters hiding in the Kandil area of northern Iraq and does nothing to prevent attacks on Turkey from that region.

The approval of the resolution by the House Foreign Affairs Committee on October 10 prompted severe condemnation by Turkish leaders and led Turkey to summon its ambassador in the US to Ankara for consultations. President Abdullah Gü l accused American po

liticians of sacrificing big issues for petty games of domestic politics.

Given the Democrat majority in the House, it was expected that the resolution would be approved by the Foreign Affairs Committee despite strong opposition by the administration.

Nevertheless, its passage has added to Turkish frustration at the state of relations with the US, and the expected majority for the resolution in the full House in November has strengthened the perception of the Turks that they have less to lose in terms of Turkish-US relations if they do act in Iraq. Given that Turkey is more determined to do so and less likely to heed American warnings not to intervene, it is possible that the US will decide to minimize the negative consequences of Turkish intervention by providing at least partial cooperation.

The publication of reports about secret plans for such cooperation suggests that the possibility has already been extensively discussed by the two sides, notwithstanding American concerns about stability in the Kurdish-controlled autonomous area in the north of Iraq and about a hostile reaction on the part of the Kurds, who have been the most loyal American allies in

Iraq. Indeed, these concerns suggest that if the Turks do intervene, the Americans may also have to undertake more aggressive actions.

Given American failures in Iraq up until now, it is doubtful whether the administration can permit another failure in the form of unilateral Turkish intervention seemingly in defiance of the US.

Such intervention would have negative consequences that could by neutralized, at least with respect to Turkish-US relations, if the Americans actually cooperated.

By contrast, Turkey is unwilling to comprom

ise on the Armenian genocide issue and the administration cannot impose its will on Congress.

It is therefore difficult to see how the damage to bilateral relations of the likely forthcoming Congressional resolution can be limited.

Turkish policy indicates that while Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Gül are acting to promote domestic reforms that run counter to the Kemalist legacy, in foreign affairs they act in conformity with the hard-line Turkish tradition.

It is true that close ties with the United States are also a traditionally important component of Turkish foreign policy, but it is increasingly difficult today for Turks to reconcile the contradiction between their interests and those of the US. Since the American invasion of Iraq, Turkish public opinion has also become more anti-American, and that influences decision makers to adopt uncompromising positions regarding the Kurdish issue and ignore American attitudes.

Although Turkish-American relations appear to be headed toward a crisis, both sides remain aware of the importance of those ties and therefore try to deal with the challenges they face.

But despite the common desire not to harm bilateral strategic relations, there is a clash between Turkish and American interests that may very well further convulse the already complicated reality in Iraq.

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