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WHY ALL THE BIG RUSH?

August 19, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

In 1946, 47, and early 48 the Arabs, anticipating what would happen when the British Protectorate pulled out of what is now Israel, were trying, by hook or crook, to get any type of weaponry from any country willing to let them buy on credit. The oil revenues were soon to be maintained by the Islamic populations, so it was a good investment on

the part of those supplying the military hardware. The arms flowed in and the 1948 war began.

In the fifties and sixties the Islamic oil revenues increased, and naturally improved weaponry, supplied by both East and West, flowed into the Middle East in great quantities. The arms flowed in, and the 1967 war began.

The loss of Jerusalem, the Golan Heights, and the West Bank in the 1967 war, was humiliating for the Islamic nations worldwide, and from 1968 to 1973 the same flow of weapons into the Middle East from the East and West flourished again. The arms flowed in and the 1973 Yom Kippur war began.

From 1974 to 2007 the Islamic nations have become rich due to their great oil revenues, and Russia and China have been more than happy to keep their financial coffers filled with monies from their Islamic oil revenues. High quality, huge quantity, high-tech sophisticated weapons are now being poured into Iran, Syria, and Hizbullah by Russia, China, and North Korea, with Iran footing most of the bill. The arms are flowing in like mad, so what do you think is about to happen?

After three bitter defe ats suffered

at the hand of Israel, this time Islam wants to be sure of victory. I have listed in previous blogs why I did not expect the war to begin this year, so I will not repeat them.

But I will continue to advise you that I guesstimate the war will begin at some point in time between 2008 and the end of 2012, with the war most likely to take place after 2009.

Syria reportedly gets Russian SA-22s

JPost.com Staff, THE JERUSALEM POST

August 18, 2007

Syria has begun delivery of the first batch of anti-aircraft missile and gun range land-based Pantsyr-S1E defense systems (SA-22 E in NATO terminology), the Web site of Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported Saturday.

The report, based on wires from the arms-related branch of the Russian Tass news agency, cited a previously signed agreement between Syria and Russia for the purchase of 50 sets of the system for a total of about $900 million. According to other sources, however, the signed deal included only 34-36 systems.

Army Radio reported that Russian military officials agreed to the deal only after Syria vowed that the systems would not be resold or distributed to a third country, such as Lebanon or Iran.

But in May, the reputable Jane’s Defense Weekly reported that Syria agreed to transfer ten of the systems to Iran.

In the past year, Israel accused Russia of supplying the Lebanese Shi’ite organization Hizbullah with weapons systems which were later used against Israeli tanks during the Second Lebanon War. The systems allegedly used by Hizbullah were older than the SA-22 E, which is a new development based on older SA-19 and SA-N-11 systems.

Vitaly Shlykov, a member of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, slammed the Israeli claims as “silly rumors”. Alexander Rybas, a top official of KBP Instrument Design Bureau, denied the allegations, saying “Hizbullah has not and would not have been able to own [Russian-made systems].”

The SA-22 E, produced by KBP, a precision weaponry manufacturer based in Tula, Russia, is a combined surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery weapon system. The versatile platform can be mounted either on a tracked or wheeled vehicle.

The system contains 12 missiles with a range of 1-12 km., carrying a load of 16 kg.

each. The guns on the SA-22 E are of a 30mm.

caliber, capable of firing 700 rounds per minute.

The system requires two operators and a driver for the carrying vehicle.

According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the recently developed SA-22 E will be dispatched to Syria even before its deployment in the Russian military.

Other clients of the system are China, Greece and the United Arab Emirates, which already owns 50 systems, half on wheeled vehicles and half on tracked carriers.

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Pacific Ring of Fire Rattles around its Periphery!

August 19, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

I wrote the following Prophecy Update Number 18 in March of 2001, shortly after I received the earthquake statistics for 2000 from the U.S. Geological Survey. I kept a record of all earthquakes in 19 year cycles beginning from 1948. The last 19 year cycle was completed in 2005, so I have included the actual earthquakes reported from 1986 to 2000 (14 years) in the body of this 2001 Prophecy Update 18 and, at the end of it, I added the last 19 year total from 1986 to 2005 as an update to Prophecy Update 18.

PROPHECY UPDATE 18, March 2001

Before the sons of God were to appear in glorious manifestation on the millennial earth, there was to be a groaning of God’s creation. The earth was to travail like a woman experiencing birth pangs.

We were advised of this by Paul in verses 19 and 22 of the eighth chapter of Romans, where he wrote: “For the earnest expectation of the creature waiteth for the manifestation of the sons of God” and, “For we know that the whole creation groaneth and trvaileth in pain together until now.”

The birth pangs were occasionally felt during the time of Paul’s writings, but Matthew indicated they would increase noticeably just before Christ’s coming for his saints in verses 7b and 8 of the twentieth-fourth chapter of his gospel, where he wrote: “And there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes in divers (many different) places. All these are the beginning of sorrows (odin).” The word “odin” is used for “sorrows” by Matthew, and the same root word for “odin” is used by Paul in Romans 8:22 to describe the “travail” of God’s creation. You may use any Greek lexicon of your choice, and you will find that the basic meaning of the word “odin” refers to the birth pangs experienced by a woman in the travail of delivering a child.

Therefore, when the Lord said “All these,” in verse 8, he was referring specifically to the birth pangs that would be suffered, in a period of time just before his coming, because of famines, pestilence, and earthquakes. He indicated that all three of these phenomena would increase steadily like a woman’s birth pangs, ever increasing in this period labeled as “the beginning of sorrows.”

Down through the centuries earthquakes, famine, and pestilence have been used repeatedly to teach that the coming of Jesus was at hand. However, they have never followed the “odin” pattern of a woman’s birth pangs during recorded history, that is, until now. In order for this prophecy of Christ to be fulfilled these phenomena had to behave like a woman’s birth pains. When true labor pangs begin, they become greater and greater in frequency and intensity with the passage of time. Earthquake surges have come and gone in short duration patterns since this prophecy was uttered, but now, for the first time since it was given, they are steadily following the pattern of “odin.” The same basic pattern is now being followed in famine, pestilence, and earthquakes, just as Jesus indicated. In this update we will show the “odin” pattern in earthquakes.

In future updates we will cover pestilence (loimos) and famine, Lord willing.

The statistics which will follow were first extracted from the Earthquake Data File Summary, U. S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Environmental Data Service, Boulder, Colorado, which was issued in May of 1976.

I have received updates to the original report from the same source every year since 1977.

While the intensity of

the earthquakes is similar to the Richter scale, with which most people are familiar, they are not exactly the same, but rather than launch out into a technical discussion of the difference, let me simply state that, for comparative purposes, they are the same. They come from Table 2 – Summary of data file by year by magnitude and depth. As you read the numbers which follow in the narrative, remember they are referr

ing to earthquakes reported across the earth greater than one in intensity on the Richter scale.

Before Israel officially became a nation in May of 1948, there were never more than 6,000 earthquakes greater than one reported in any 19 year period. I chose a 19 year cycle, because that is the number of years which passed between the time that Israel became a nation (1948), and the time she finally took back Old Jerusalem and her Temple Mount (1967). During the 19 year period between 1948 and the beginning of 1968, 32,789 earthquakes were reported across the surface of the planet.

In 1967 Israel recaptured the Old City of Jerusalem and her Temple Mount and, for the first time since she lost it to the Romans in A.D. 70, she regained sovereignty over it. During the 19 year period that followed, from 1968 to 1986, there were 125,011 earthquakes reported across the earth.

In just 14 years, from 1986 to 2000, we had 247,347 earthquakes reported on this globe. I assure you that they will continue to accelerate, but if they were simply to continue at this static rate of 17,688 per year then, by the time that the 19 year cycle is completed in 2005, there will have been 335,687 reported across the earth.

The average number reported per year since 1948 has increased, in 19 year cycles, from 1,726 to 6,579 to 17,688. I realize that a large part of the increase is due to better seismological equipment, a better reporting system, and an

increase in the density of population, but it cannot be attributed to these factors alone. And, after all, Jesus simply said, for all practical purposes, that more and more would be reported in may different (differs) places just before he came again.

And, in saying they would be in many different places, one would have to surmise he knew man would spread across the earth and that technology would rapidly increase in the last days. In any case, it demonstrates he is who he claimed to be, the Son of God, who knows the future. Did not the Spirit, in Daniel 12:4, indicate that man would spread across the earth, and technology would bring a literal knowledge and capability explosion: “But thou, O Daniel, shut up the words, and seal the book, even to the time of the end: many shall run to and fro, and knowledge shall be increased.” Could Jesus have known less

?

The following paragraph was added in 2006 to Prophecy Update 18 to complete the last 19 year cycle from 1986 to 2005. The end of the next 19 year cycle will be completed in 2024, and I fully expect to be in a glorified body at that time.

A total of 381,150 earthquakes were reported in the 19 Year Cycle from 1968 to 2005. My legs finally worn out in 2005 and I had 5 by-pass heart surgery in 2006, so

I had to stop during my lectures on the road, and consequently stopped updating earthquakes every year.

Begin Khaleej Times Article

Khaleej Times On line – News – THE WORLD

Peru quake area hit by powerful aftershock

(Reuters)

17 August 2007

PISCO, Peru – Peruvian Rescue taems scrambled on Friday to find survivors in the disaster zone of a powerful earthquake that killed some 500 people and where an aftershock of 6.0 magnitude struck on Friday, the US Geological Survey and witnesses said.

The main quake of 8.0 magnitude hit on Wednesday and many of its victims were poor, killed when their flimsy mud-brick homes collapsed. Hospitals and morgues were overwhelmed, forcing residents to lay bodies out on city streets.

Reuters witness said there were no immediate reports of damages or injuries from the aftershock, centered around 145 km south of the capital on the coast.

The aftershock rattled Peruvians on Friday, sowing panic in the hardest-hit towns, south of the capital Lima, where volunteers tried to help emergency crews find the living and treat the injured.

Some 510 people have been confirmed dead and 1,000 wounded since the big quake, the United Nations said on Friday, quoting national and local authorities.

Thousands of people were homeless and forced to sleep outside. They complained of a lack

of medical attention and emergency supplies.

The damage was worst in the cities of Canete, Chincha and Pisco.

The rescue of a man from the rubble of a collapsed church brought some hope to search teams in the town of Pisco.

“This is virtually a miracle, hopefully we can find more,” said Carlos Cordova Gomez, chief of Peru’s voluntary firefighters, who worked under floodlights to dig through the church ruins alongside police, soldiers and volunteers.

“For the time being we’re going to keep on looking for bodies,” said Felipe Aguilar, directing Army rescue efforts in the town. “For us, this is the priority right now, because we’ve already pulled one person out alive.”

In the square where the devastated church once stood, hundreds of residents gathered in the only part of the town of 120,000 with any light after the quake, which cut electricity and phone lines and cracked major highways.

Pisco, famous for the grape liquor that bears its name, was worst affected by the quake along with the towns of Ica and Chincha, where hundreds of prisoners escaped from a jail when the tremor tore the old building apart.

President Alan Garcia visited the quake-hit areas on Thursday and sent condolences to the families of the victims.

Wednesday’s quake was one of the worst natural disasters to hit the South American country during the last century. In 1970, an earthquake killed an estimated 50,000 Peruvians in catastrophic avalanches of ice and mud that buried the town of Yungay.

In downtown Lima, the Peruvian flag flew at half-mast after Garcia declared three days of national mourning

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Back to the Bad Old Days!

August 18, 2007

“Now there you go again!”

Us ing

President Ronald Regan’s famous statement to President Jimmy Carter in their television debate, it now certainly can be used to apply to the reemergence of Russia as an international trouble maker.

The two articles which follow give an overview of Russia resurgence in world affairs. The only good thing about it is its timing indicates Armageddon is not in the far distant future. The players in the tribulation period, and its final battle of Armageddon, are quacking like ducks lined up in a row.

Begin DEBKAfile Article 1

Putin orders resumption of regular Russian long-range strategic bomber flights after 15 years

August 17, 2007, 6:11 PM (GMT+02:00)

The Russian president made this announcement, evoking shades of the Cold War, Friday, Aug. 17, in the presence of China’s Hu Jintao at the end of the first joint Russian-Chinese war games exercise taking place on Russian soil. DEBKAfile reports that a Russian military train transported Chinese units to the maneuvers from their common border in Mongolia.

Speaking near the Ural Mountain city of Chelyabinsk, Putin said a halt in the long-range bombers’ flights after the Soviet collapse had affected Russia’s security. The war games coincided with Russian air force maneuvers involving strategic bombers which flew over the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic Oceans.

Excerpt from Associated Press Release in Jerusalem Post titled “Russia: BBC Broadcasts taken off Air”

Critics say President Vladimir Putin’s government has stifled media freedoms and quashed political opposition as part of a broader effort to increase Kremlin control over Russian political life.

As the country heads into a parliamentary election in December and presidential elections in March, observers say government influence over news media appears to be at its strongest since the Soviet era ended.

Several foreign language broadcasters have seen their programming curtailed or pulled off

the air in Russia in recent years.

Russian authorities last year dramatically curtailed the number of stations broadcasting Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Voice of America news programs. German broadcaster Deutsche Welle has also had problems with its German and Russian-language medium-wave radio programs in the past.

Alexander Varkentin, deputy head of the Russian service of Deutsche Welle, told AP that the only problems the German broadcaster has had in Russia of late were financial – small radio stations requesting money for programs.

Bolshoye Radio’s decision also comes as relations between London and Moscow have plummeted to their lowest level in years.

British prosecutors have demanded that Russia hand over a businessman they have accused in the death of Alexander Litivinenko, the former KGB agent and British citizen who died of radioactive poisoning in London last year.

Russia has refused, saying it is constitutionally barred from extraditing

Russian citizens, and has waged a highly public relations campaign accusing Britain of trying to recruit spies in Russia.

“We support the role of the BBC World Service, it is a source of independent news, often in parts of the world where such independence is far from the norm,” a British Foreign Office spokeswoman said on customary condition of anonymity. “It is important that the BBC World Service is able to continue to broadcast in Russia.”

Begin Guardian Article 2

Russia seeks its place in the sun

Simon Tisdall

Friday August 17, 2007

The Guardian

The declaration earlier this month by Admiral Vladimir Masorin, commander of the Russian navy, that Moscow intends to re-establish a permanent naval presence in the Mediterranean is under close scrutiny from Washington to Tel Aviv. While more an aspiration than established fact, the move carries myriad, challenging implications, ranging from the US Sixth Fleet’s regional monopoly on naval power to the security of trans-Caucasian and North African energy supply routes.

Yet it is the prospect of Russia reactivating its cold war naval bases in Syria’s Tartus and Latakia ports which could have the most dramatic impact. By raising Syria’s stock in the region, analysts say such a move could further complicate western attempts to achieve settlements in Lebanon and Palestine. Defensive missile and surveillance systems around any Russian installations might also shift the military balance to Israel’s disadvantage.

A brief by Stratfor.com, a private US intelligence firm, said: “A Russian naval presence off the Syrian coast could allow Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s regime to better inoculate itself against a potential attack by the US or Israel … The Russians would be offering an attractive insurance policy.”

The Russian Black Sea fleet’s 720th Logistics Support Point at Tartus has been in disuse since 1991, when the Soviet Union imploded. Yet it remains the only Russian military base outside the post-Soviet Commonwealth of Independent States territory. Last year Russia reportedly dredged Tartus and began building a new dock at Latakia.

Kommersant newspaper said the plans were far from implementation. But as the Kiev Post noted, the Black Sea fleet’s lease on its Sevastopol base is hostage to Ukraine’s volatile relations with Moscow – and will in any case expire in 2017, necessitating a renegotiation or a move.

Wary of Israel’s possible reaction (and Russian domination), Syria denies any intention to host a new military presence. But in the double-dealing world of Middle East politics, such statements by a regime with long-standing political and commercial links to Russia are not taken at face value.

Syria could threaten a Russian go-ahead if its recent, limited cooperation with the US over Iraq fails to win concessions on Lebanon or guarantees that Washington will not pursue regime change.

President Vladimir Putin, involved in a bare-chested global game of military and diplomatic one-upmanship with the US, may also be using the Syrian bases as pawns. They could equally be used to increase Russian leverage over the US-led peace process or to control Syria’s future behaviour, depending on where Moscow’s perceived interests lie.

Dmitri Trenin, of the Carnegie Endowment, says Moscow’s pragmatic – and by implication, unprincipled – foreign policymakers are “looking for opportunities wherever they may be”. That meant building influence in the Middle East in particular.

For this reason, said Pavel Baev, of Eurasia Daily Monitor, Mr Putin was hedging his bets while he waited to see how the twin crises with Iraq and Iran play out. One example: now that panicky Arab states are pursuing nuclear programmes to match Iran’s, Russia wants its share of the resulting business in the Gulf. Yet at the same time, Moscow is helping Iran complete its Bushehr nuclear facility. Mr Baev said Russia was manoeuvring to profit from an irresistible window of opportunity: the power shift that would follow a US defeat in Iraq.

“In the envisaged no-holds-barred power play, Russia would not have any allies but could enjoy perfect freedom of manoeuvre and exploit the advantage of not being afraid of any oil crisis.

“Declaring its adherence to pragmatism, Moscow is increasingly adopting anti-Americanism as its guiding political idea,” he said. Toying with military bases in Syria was just part of a bigger, bolder bid to challenge US regional and global leadership.

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The Spirit of Antichrist – “Get Ready for Global Mission of Islam”

August 18, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Revelation 17:12,13,17 – And the ten horns which thou sawest are ten kings, which have received no kingdom as yet; but receive power as kings one hour with the beast. [13] These have one mind, and shall give their power and strength unto the beast. [17] For God hath put in their hearts to fulfil his will, and to agree, and give their kingdom unto the beast, until the words of God shall be fulfilled.

President of Iran: Rule of Islam only way for salvation of mankind

Kabul, August 14, IRNA

www2.irna.com/en/news/view/menu-234/0708142013173859.htm

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said here Tuesday that rule of Islam on mankind is the only way for salvation of human beings.

“There is no truth on earth but monotheism and following tenets of Islam and there is no way for salvation of mankind but rule of Islam over mankind,” said Ahmadinejad in a meeting with Afghan Sunni and Shiite ulama at Iranian Embassy in Kabul.

President Ahmadinejad said nations are today distancing themselves from culture of materialism and selfishness and look for a new way for their prosperity that is the path of Islam.

He said that the world is on verge of a great upheaval and ulama at this

juncture shoulder a heavy responsibility that is introducing genuine Islam as it is. “Nations today have no haven but religion,” the Iranian president announced, cautioning Muslim nations against enemies’ divisive plots.

He said, “All of us have the duty to resist the enemy by closing our ranks.”

He said that the Iranian nation today feels more than ever the need to stand beside the Afghan nation.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has kindly received their Afghan brothers and will continue to do so in future.

Minor issues will not affect Iran’s policies on Afghanistan,” he added.

The president said Islam belongs to all generations and Muslims should get ready for global mission of Islam.

End Irna Article

The following interview, with a Saudi cleric, gives you an idea of the weird character and insane form of worship, which drives these fanatics in their martyr mindset of spreading it to conquer all of mankind.

BEGIN MEMRI TV INTERVIEW

The following are excerpts from an interview with Saudi cleric Muhammad Al-Munajid, which aired on Iqra TV on July 26, 2007:

Clip #1520: Saudi Cleric Muhammad Al-Munajid: “This is the Islam that Allah

Wants to Spread Throughout the World and to Rule the Land in its Entirety,” Western “Beasts” Wear Colored Underwear to Conceal Their Filth

Sheikh Muhammad Al-Munajid: This is a nation of monotheism, and this is the Islam that Allah wants to spread throughout the world, and to rule the land it its entirety. Allah wants this. He sent down the Koran and the hadith for that purpose.

[…]

Humanity can have no happiness without Islam.

Humanity can enjoy no goodness, unless the sun of monotheism, the Koran, and the Sunna shines upon it.

The world without the sun of the divine revel ation is

a place of eternal darkness, as we can see today – a world of frustration, collapse, injustice, arbitrariness, and wrongdoing. The world today is a jungle – a world of barbarism of all kinds. People in many parts

of the world are not happy, because they do not walk in the path of Allah.

[…]

There are rules of shari’a in everyth

ing. We have counted almost 70 rules about how to urinate and defecate.

In contrast, how do those beasts in the West answer the call of nature

? They stand in front of other people, in toilets at airports and other public places.

They do not care about covering their private parts. Even their underwear is colored and not white, so it can conceal all that filth.

We are a nation that has long known the meaning of cleanliness, what to do when nature calls, and what the rules of hygiene are.

The others, to this day, live like beasts. To this day, many of them are not circumcised, even though the World Health Organization has advised circumcising people as a treatment for AIDS, because it has been scientifically proven that circumcised people are less susceptible to AIDS, and are

less likely to spread it than uncircumcised people.

TO VIEW THIS CLIP: www.memritv.org/clip/en/1520.htm

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Russia Challeng ing

American Power Monopoly in the Middle East!

August 17, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

I do not expect Russia or China to be involved in the attack that initially drives Israel into the Negev Wilderness, but I am certain they will both be involved in the final battle that occurs three and one-half years after the initial attack by the 10 Islamic nations of Revelation and Daniel, namely, the battle of Armageddon.

Daniel 11:41 – He shall enter also into the glorious land, and many countries

shall be overthrown: but these shall escape out of his hand, even Edom, and Moab, and the chief of the children of Ammon.

Zechariah 13:8 – And it shall come to pass, that in all the land, saith the Lord, two parts therein shall be cut off and die; but the third shall be left therein.

Revelation 12:6 – And the woman fled into the wilderness, where she hath a place prepared of God, that they should feed her there a thousand two hundred and threescore days. (A Prophetic year = 360 days)

Daniel 7:24,25 – And the ten horns out of this kingdom are ten kings that shall arise: and another shall rise after them; and he shall be diverse from t

he first, and he shall subdue three kings. [25] And he shall speak great words against the most High, and shall wear out the saints of the most High, and think to change times

and laws: and they shall be given into his hand until a time and

times and the dividing of time. (Time = 1 year) (Times = 2 Years) (The Dividing of Time = ½ Year)

I do not believe the United States, Russia, China, or Europe will put troops on the ground to become involved in the initial attack, nor do I believe they will shell or launch missiles and aircraft into the Middle East countries.

They will simple stay out of the conflict, out of fear of generating a world wide conflict, and let Islam and Israel slug it out in a high tech conventional war. After Israel is confined to the Negev Wilderness for three and one-half years, Antichrist will issue a call to help him forever end “The Jewish Problem,” and both Russia and China will come down to the final great battle of Armageddon.

Revelation 16:16 – And he gathered them together into a place called in the Hebrew tongue Armageddon.

Daniel 11:45 to 12:1 – And he shall plant the tabernacles of his palace between the seas in the glorious holy mountain; yet he shall come to his end, and none shall help him.

[1] And at that time shall Michael stand up, the great prince which standeth for the children of thy people: and there shall be a time of trouble, such as never was since there was a nation even to that same time: and at that time thy people shall be delivered, every one that shall be found written in the book.

Revelation 19:19-21 – That ye may eat the flesh of kings, and the flesh of captains, and the flesh of mighty men, and the flesh of horses, and of them that sit on them, and the flesh of all men, both free and bond, both small and great. [19] And I saw the beast, and the kings of the earth, and their armies, gathered together to make war against him that sat on the horse, and against his army. [20] And the beast was taken, and with him the false prophet that wrought miracles before him, with which he deceived them that had received the mark of the beast, and them that worshipped his image. These both were cast alive into a lake of fire burning with brimstone.

[21] And the remnant were slain with the sword of him that sat upon the horse, which sword proceeded out of his mouth: and all the fowls were filled with their flesh.

The following Guardian article by Simon Tisdall gives an excellent outline of Russia’s attempt to reestablish itself as a world power.

Begin Guardian Article

Putin’s power play

Simon Tisdall

August 16, 2007 7:00 PM

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/simon_tisdall/2007/08/putins_power_play.html

The declaration earlier this month by Admiral Vladimir Masorin, the commander of the Russian navy, that Moscow intends to re-establish a permanent naval presence in the Mediterranean, is under close scrutiny from Washington to Tel Aviv.

While more an aspiration than established fact so far, the move carries myriad, challenging implications, ranging from the US Sixth Fleet’s regional monopoly on naval power to the security of trans-Caucasian and north African energy supply routes.

But it is the prospect of Russia reactivating its cold war naval bases in Syria, at the ports

of Tartus and Latakia, that could have the most dramatic geopolitical impact. By raising Syria’s stock in the region, analysts say such a move could further complicate western attempts to achieve settlements in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. Defensive missile and surveillance systems around any Russian installations might also shift the military balance to Israel’s disadvantage. A stratfor.com intelligence brief said:

“A Russian naval presence off the Syrian coast could allow Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s regime to better inoculate itself against a potential attack by the US or Israel … The Russians would be offering an attractive insurance policy. “Though Damascus could not rely on [the Russians] to actually defend Syrian interests, their mere presence would change the threat environment for Israel and make things like low-level flights over Assad’s summer home a bit riskier.”

The 720th Logistics Support Point at Tartus has been in disuse since 1991, when the Soviet Union imploded. Yet it remains the only Russian military base outside the post-Soviet commonwealth of independent states. Last year Russia reportedly dredged Tartus and began to build a new dock at Latakia.

Russian reports claim Moscow’s plans are causing “serious concern” in Israel, where intelligence sources said they fear the bases “will turn into major centres of electronic surveillance and air defence centres and, as such, threats to Israel’s national security”.

The Kommersant newspaper said the plans were a long way from implementation.

Analysts believe that given its still-depleted resources, the Russian navy would have difficulty extending operations to the Mediterranean, even with help from its northern and Baltic fleets as envisaged by Admiral Masorin. But as the Kyiv Post noted, the Russian Black Sea fleet’s lease on its Sevastopol base is hostage to Ukraine’s volatile relations with Moscow – and will in any case expire in 2017, necessitating a renegotiation or a move to new quarters.

Wary of Israel’s possible reaction, Syria denies it has any intention of hosting a new Russian military presence. But in the murky world of Middle East politics, such statements are not taken at face value.

Syria’s previous collaboration and arms purchases from Moscow, and the two countries’ common friendship with Iran, are taken as evidence that a new base agreement could be a logical step at some stage. On some readings, Damascus could threaten to give a go-ahead to the Russians if its increased cooperation with the US over Iraq fails to extract concessions on Lebanon or desired guarantees that Washington will not pursue regime change.

President Vladimir Putin, involved in a bare-chested global game of military and diplomatic one-upmanship with the US, may also be using the Syrian naval bases as pawns. Analysts say they could equally be used to increase Russian leverage over the US-led peace process – or to control Syria’s future behaviour, depending on where Moscow’s perceived interests lie at the time.

According to Dmitri Trenin of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Moscow’s pragmatic (and by implication, unprincipled) foreign policymakers are “looking for opportunities wherever they may be”. That means building influence in the Middle East in particular.

For this reason, said Pavel Baev of the Eurasia Daily Monitor, Mr Putin, waiting to see how the twin crises in Iraq and Iran play out, is hedging his bets. One example: now that panicky Arab states are pursuing nuclear programmes to match Iran’s, Russia wants its share of the resulting business in the Gulf.

Yet at the same time, Moscow is helping Iran complete its Bushehr nuclear facility.

The bottom line is that Russia is manoeuvring to profit from what it sees as an irresistible window of opportunity – the power shift that would follow a US defeat in Iraq, Mr Baev said. “In the envisaged no-holds-barred power play, Russia would not have any allies but could enjoy perfect freedom of manoeuvre and exploit the advantage of not being afraid of any oil crisis.”

“Declaring its adherence to pragmatism, Moscow is in fact increasingly adopting anti-Americanism as its guiding political idea.” Toying with military bases in Syria was just part of a bigger, bolder bid to challenge US regional and global leadership.

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