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A Thorough Outline of Security and Defense on All Israeli Fronts!

July 15, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

The following article by Yaakov Katz is the most comprehensive outline of the security and defense challenges facing Israel that I have read up to this time.

Begin Jerusalem Post Article

Security and Defense: Explosive Challenges on All Fronts

Yaakov Katz, THE JERUSALEM POST

July 13, 2007

The red telephone next to his bed wakes up Military Intelligence head Maj.-Gen. Amos Yadlin on almost a nightly basis. A secure line that connects his home with headquarters and other intelligence-gathering units, the phone is there to keep him updated on the outcome of top-secret operations, changes in enemy militaries and other urgent pieces of information.

Since 1973, the country has not faced such a large number of threats – all equal in their level of danger – as today.

When Yadlin’s phone rings in the middle of the night, the call could be related to one of five different fronts. It could be a call about changes in Syrian military formation, indicating that war is imminent; developments in Iran’s nuclear program; Hizbullah

plans to kidnap a soldier; a Hamas attack in the Gaza Strip; or Global Jihad plans to hijack a plane and ram it in to the Azrieli Towers in Tel Aviv.

A year after the Second Lebanon War, Israel is still far from being out of danger. According to Military Intelligence’s up-to-date assessments, obtained this week by The Jerusalem Post, the country is heading toward a number of major military conflicts in the coming year, possibly even in the next few months.

Hizbullah is rearming and, according to the IDF, is back at the level of strength it possessed before the war.

Syria is in the midst of an unprecedented weapons shopping spree and making final preparations for war.

Iran is racing toward nuclear power and, if not stopped, might obtain a nuke by as early as 2009.
Hamas has established an enemy Islamic state five minutes south of Ashkelon.

And al-Qaida has declared Israel as one of its primary targets for the coming year.

The timeline for these wars is still vague, but senior officers who spoke with the Post this week warned of growing enemy strength and a continuous deterioration of the IDF’s level of deterrence.

ISRAEL’S LEVEL of deterrence in the eyes of its enemies began declining in May 2000, following the unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon. It increased with America’s entry into Iraq in 2003, but quickly dropped again with the unilateral disengagement from the Gaza Strip, which was perceived – as was its Lebanese predecessor – as a victory for Islamic terror.

In 2006, the deterrence again suffered a heavy blow with the failure to destroy Hizbullah during the Second Lebanon War, and it continues to decline with America’s failure to stabilize the situation in Iraq.

Since the Second Lebanon War, predictions within the defense establishment have ranged from immediate war with Syria to an unprecedented opportunity to broker a peace. “If we only knew what was going on in Bashar Assad’s head,” a senior defense official said this week, “we might be able to understand exactly what he is planning.”

What is clear is that Syria is preparing for war and will be ready in the coming months, possibly even weeks. It has beefed up its military presence along the border and, copying Hizbullah tactics, has purchased advanced anti-tank missiles and other platforms which it believes can help it defeat the IDF.

According to MI’s assessment, if Prime Minister Ehud Olmert does not begin peace negotiations with Damascus, the country could find itself at war with Syria, a conflict that would be at least 10 times worse than last summer’s conflict with Hizbullah.

According to IDF assessments, Syria is not interested in an armed conflict but has been preparing for war since then. Due to a lack of communication between the two countries, the IDF assessment is that a war could erupt sometime in the coming year if a diplomatic resolution is not reached.

MI has compared the Israeli-Syrian standoff to the “Prisoner’s Dilemma” – a game theory which demonstrates how two parties, without communication, will in the end choose the worse of two options. While the game refers to two prisoners and whether they will be sentenced to 10 or two years in prison, in this case the outcome will be war.

Adding to the difficulty in deciphering what Syria plans is understanding Assad’s complicated personality. In contrast to his late father, Hafez, who sometimes made Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah sit outside his office for five hours, Assad receives him as a king. He has also supplied Hizbullah with his most advanced weaponry, another thing his father never did.

Assad has taken a number of other risks, such as the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri and the strategic bond he has formed with Iran in spite of the US and the rest of the Western world.

During a visit to Iran shortly after last summer’s war, Assad was told that Moscow had secretly informed Teheran that the US was planning to attack its nuclear sites this summer.

He was led to believe that if that happened, Hizbullah would come to Iran’ s defen

se and attack Israel. If both his closest allies were at war, Assad decided he, too, needed to be ready.

Hizbullah is still in the process of rebuilding itself.

It has received in recent months hundreds of medium-range rockets from Syria.

The IDF suspects it may have received even more advanced Iranian and Syrian missiles, the assumption being that any weapon small enough to fit into a shipping container has been sent to the guerrilla group.

MI believes that Hizbullah is not currently interested in a conflict with Israel. However, it predicts that by next summer, it will have completed its rehabilitation and will again be ready for war. “Sooner or later,” the assessment foresees, Hizbullah will attack again.

THOUGH THE presence of UNIFIL and the Lebanese army makes it difficult for Hizbullah to operate freely in the South, the IDF claims that it has just moved its missile array farther north, still in range of Israel but out of range of UNIFIL detection.

Israel is growing increasingly concerned with the internal political situation inside Lebanon. Prime Minister Fuad Saniora’s government has been paralyzed since Nasrallah ordered the Hizbullah ministers to resign on November 11.

While Jerusalem is impressed with Saniora – particularly with his decision to send troops to fight Fatah al-Islam in the Nahr el-Bared refugee camp near Tripoli – it is waiting to see how he emerges from the next round with Hizbullah and other pro-Syrian factions in the government on September 25, when the parliament is scheduled to appoint a new president to replace Emile Lahoud.

MI expects Iran to have mastered the necessary technology to proceed independently with its nuclear program by the end of the year. By the end of the decade and possibly in 2009, Iran will have a nuclear bomb, unless it is stopped before then.

Deeply involved in tracking Iran’s nuclear program, MI is working to identify and pinpoint targets in the event a military strike is launched against its nuclear facilities. It recently established a new division, headed by Brig.-Gen. Nitzan Alon, former commander of the General Staff Reconnaissance Unit (Sayeret Matkal), which is responsible for translating intelligence into real targets and information that can be used by operating units.

The IDF believes the regime led by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is financially stable and determined to complete its nuclear development even at the price of tough economic sanctions. But MI does not rule out the possibility that the threat of tough sanctions could prompt Iran to strike a deal with the West and suspend its enrichment of uranium, like it did in 2002.

FOR ISRAEL, this is the critical year.

Unlike the US, which sees the point of no return only when Iran has a nuclear bomb, Israel has been warning that the point is actually sooner than that – when the Iranians master the technology.

Yadlin believes that Israel’s deterrence is based on three factors: its strategic partnership with the US; nuclear capabilities it is believed to possess; and its regular military capabilities.

Since the Second Lebanon War, the partnership with the US has been dramatically enhanced, most recently during Olmert’s visit to Washington, when President George W. Bush agreed to increase foreign military aid by more than $1 billion.

Fear of the IDF’s conventional military capabilities has decreased since the war, particularly when it comes to infantry and tank units, which suffered heavy losses in the fighting against Hizbullah.

The air force is still admired as being one of the best in the world, particularly after its major accomplishments during the war in hunting and destroying Hizbullah missile and rocket launchers.

But, according to Yadlin, the primary way to test Israel’s level of deterrence is to see if its enemies are doing something that they have not done in the past.

Time will tell.

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Van, You Knew, So Tell Us What You Knew Israel Doesn’t Want Told!

July 15, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Revelation 10:3,4 – And cried with a loud voice, as when a lion roareth: and when he had cried, seven thunders uttered their voices.

[4] And when the seven thunders had uttered their voices, I was about to write: and I heard a voice from heaven saying unto me, Seal up those things which the seven thunders uttered, and write them not.

I have enough trouble trying to interpret what John did write, than what he did not write, so if you know what the seven thunders wrote, please don’t tell me, let it be a surprise to

me.

But, in the case of Israeli Mordechai Vanunu, I think I know what he knew he did not tell us. He did reveal, quite frankly, what all of Israel’s enemies already knew, that Israel had numerous nuclear bombs to drop and launch from aircraft, and

numerous nuclear warheads on Jericho missiles capable of being launched from imbedded fixed launchers, as well as portable ones. This was, and is, common knowledge in the intelligence networks of those nations with good electronic intercept capabilities from land, air, sea, and space using far-flung land station, naval, aircraft, and satellite high tech procedures and apparatus, in a well structured overlay format. The photography of high magnification from satellite and high flying planes is integrated into the electronic sound grid to produce a v

isual picture of worldwide facilities interlinked with sound information for particular military facilities.

I suspect once Vanunu advised the world Israel was definitely a nuclear power, the main reason they jailed him in the first place was because he would tell them what else he knew about the what, when, why, and where of the positioning of the launch sites

and techniques to be employed if Israel was attacked. I really do not believe Vanunu would have revealed this additional information to them, but Israel was unwilling to take the chance. The knowledge of the launch sites and the launch techniques and locations are bound to have changed drastically since I retired from the USAF-NSA 36 years ago, so I am of no real security threat to Israel or the U.S. tod ay,

and a few things, which might be of some use to our common enemies, I have not, and will not issue or discuss.

Begin Jerusalem Post Article

Vanunu back in jail for violating parole

Dan Izenberg, THE JERUSALEM POST

July 2, 2007

Mordechai Vanunu, the technician who served 18 years in

jail for delivering nuclear secrets to the Sunday Times in 1986, is going back to jail.

On Monday, Jerusalem Magistrate’s Court sentenced him to six months in jail for having committed 14 violations of the restrictions imposed upon him when he was released from prison in April 2004.

The restrictions included an order from the minister of interior prohibiting Vanunu from leaving the country and a series of restrictions from O/C South Ya’ir Naveh, which include an order to inform the authorities 48 hours before changing his address and 24 hours before leaving the area he lives in or deciding to sleep outside his home, and a ban on speaking with foreign citizens before receiving approval from the authorities or participating in Internet chats.

“The state indicted Vanunu not just because he had contacts with foreigners (without carrying out the preliminary procedure of informing the authorities and receiving permission from them) but because he maintained contact with foreigners, which included handing over information relating to his work at the Center for Nuclear Research in the Negev,” wrote Judge Yoel Tzur. “The commander’s orders that are the subject of our hearing were issued to anticipate future dangers. The accused’s deeds, which were listed in detail in the verdict and in the declarations that Vanunu made, led to the conclusion that the possibility that [he will] harm national security is a near certainty.” In listing the factors that he took into account when determining the sentence, Tzur referred to an appeal against the state which Vanunu had lodged in 1998, while still in prison. In that appeal, a doctor testified in Beersheba District Court that Vanunu suffered from chronic paranoid schizophrenia. At the same time, the doctor said Vanunu’s intellect and memory were not affected by the illness and he was still able to express himself clearly.

Tzur said that although Vanunu’s lawyers, Avigdor Feldman and Michael Sfard, had not presented the doctor’s testimony in court, he would still take it into account because Vanunu’s condition was said to be chronic.

After the session, Vanunu said his conviction proved that Israel was still under the British mandate because he had been convicted according to a mandatory law [the 1945 Emergency Defense Regulations]. “Maybe I should appeal to the queen or Tony Blair for justice,” he said.

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from which we extracted it.

Just One Big Happy Bunch of Jihad Jedi vs.

Dark Vader Jacob and the Evil American Empire!

Hizbullah Mingling with European and Lebanese Troops for Eventual Takeover in Lebanon – Syria Aiding the Process by Smuggling Military Weapons and Trained Personnel into 16 Pro-Syrian Palestinian Militant Outposts inside Lebanon!

July 14, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

It appears to me that Syria, Iran, and Hizbullah have a plan – First, take over Lebanon, or at least the lower half of it and, after it is secure, when President Bush is no longer in office, eventually launch a huge attack against Israel.

It will be interesting to see if this speculation pans out, and how long it will take.3

Begin Series of Articles from Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs Daily Alert

July 12, 2007

Peacekeeping with Hizbullah’s Help – Nicholas Blanford (TIME)
Some of the European contingents in the UN peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon are now seeking the cooperation of the Iran-backed Hizbullah to help protect them from al-Qaeda-inspired militants.

Since last month’s bomb ambush that killed six Spanish and Colombian UNIFIL soldiers, there have been discreet contacts between some UNIFIL contingents and Hizbullah representatives, including at least one meeting involving Spanish UNIFIL officers.

Furthermore, Hizbullah officials have met with Spanish diplomats in Beirut and the Madrid government is believed to have held talks with Iran, Hizbullah’s patron, on the safety of its peacekeepers.

At least one other European contingent enjoys regular direct contact with Hizbullah.

Shi’ites in the Lebanese Army Are Helping Hizbullah

Eliel Shahar (Israel Army Radio-Hebrew)

“Lebanese Army soldiers are assisting Hizbullah to introduce weapons into southern Lebanon,” Israeli intelligence sources report.

Some 40% of the Lebanese Army are Shi’ ites who identify with Hizbullah and contribute to its strengthening, according to recent classified briefings in Jerusalem.

UNIFIL forces have noted how Shi’ite soldiers of the Lebanese Army aid Hizbullah and they attribute this to family relationships between Hizbullah members and soldiers, and because many

of them share a deep ideological tie.

Militants Stir in Lebanese Outposts

Nicholas Blanford

Both Lebanon and the UN say that the 16 militant outposts held by pro-Syrian Palest

inian factions, which lie outside the 12 established Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, are being reinforced with personnel and weapons smuggled in from Syria.

Some of the very Fatah al-Islam militants that the Lebanese forces have been battling in Nahr al-Bared are believed to have received training at Palestinian bases in the Bekaa Valley before deploying to north Lebanon. The factions that look to Syria for support include the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC), Fatah Intifada, and As -Saiqa

– all of which have headquarters in Damascus.

(Christian Science Monitor)

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Enjoy Your Young Carnal Heart While You Can!

At Times I Wish I could for a few Moments have my Soft Naï ve Heart of 1932 to 1936.

July 14, 2007

I remember Mom joggling me on her kness in 1933, and when I started playing Cowboys and Indians with little Rolland Kittrel in Augusta, Arkansas in 1935 – It was pure joy to be alive and loved – Then my beloved Aunt Mae died in 1936.

I remember they put me up in the back of the ambulance which was to take her to Little Rock from Batesville, and she hugged and kissed me good-by.

Then I watched the ambulance disappear down State Street, and I never saw her again. Then little Rolland died with cancer. Papa Drennan also died with cancer in 1938. Then Hitler invaded Poland in 1939 and everyone was worried the U.S. would head into war. Then Japan bombed Pearl Harbor, and my Dad and Uncles went to war.

Then Korea and Vietnam came along

and I went to war and saw things that give me nightmares to this day. Those are the things that mold and shape our carnal hearts from birth.

I wrote all that because I had a great life compared to the lives the Arabs and Jews have experienced during the last 60 years. The article you will read following the two Scriptures, concerning the latest attempt to shore up Fatah’s Security forces, involves an act of great generosity on the part of Israel, but the hearts of this Middle East generation are exactly like Jeremiah describes as the characteristics of a human heart, and the inability of men to change what they become as a result of it. So it won’t work, and man will continue to his date with the last great war of this Gentile Age.

Jeremiah 17:9 – The heart is deceitful above all things, and desperately wicked: who can know it?

Jeremiah 13:23 – Can the Ethiopian change his skin, or the leopard his spots? then may ye also do good, that are accustomed to do evil.

Only God can change a human heart when His Son comes to indwell it by way of repentance toward God and faith in His Son Jesus to do it by an act of Grace through Faith on God’s part.

He came into mine in 1944 and since that time I have experienced the greatest life that can be given to a human being.

Romans 2:28,29 – For he is not a Jew, which is one outwardly; neither is that circumcision, which is outward in the flesh: [29] But he is a Jew, which is one inwardly; and circumcision is that of the heart, in the spirit, and not in the letter; whose praise is not of men, but of God.

I feel obligated to warn you that your heart condition toward God is the number one thing that should be on your mind at the present time, for the Scriptures which follow are not a far distant event.

Luke 21:26,27 – Men’s hearts failing them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth: for the powers of heaven shall be shaken. [27] And then shall they see the Son of man coming in a cloud with power and great glory.

Report: Israel willing to stop hunting Fatah fugitives

JPost.com Staff, THE JERUSALEM POST

July 14, 2007

Israel was ready to cease attempts to catch Fatah-affiliated fugitives in the West Bank if they would prove that

they were ready to cease all terror activity against it, Israel Radio quoted a report by Ma’ an,

a Palestinian news Agency.

Reportedly, Israel had set up a list of 178 Palestinian fugitives from the West Bank, and decided that if they would prove that they had ceased terrorist actions, would no longer be sought by Israeli security forces. Al Aksa Martyrs’ Brigades Jenin chief Zakahriya Zbeidi was reported by Israel to be one of the names on the list.

The fugitives would be asked to remain one week in one of the bases of the Palestinian Authority’s security forces, then stay an additional three months within the confines of the territories designated “A territories” under the Oslo accords.

If they would not participate in any terror-related activities they would be able to travel throughout the West Bank without fearing arrest, as well as travel abroad, Ma’an reported.

A senior government official said several weeks ago that the West Bank fugitives constituted the force most dedicated to standing up to Hamas in case it would attempt to take over the West Bank like it did in the Gaza Strip, Israel Radio reported.

Therefore, the official added, the option of removing the threat of arresting the fugitives, as unsavory for Israel as it seems, would perhaps in the long-run be constructive in stabilizing Fatah and allowing it to combat Hamas.

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Syria and Iran Attempt Lebanese Parliament Takeover Using Puppets!

July 13, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Three Article excerpts in the July 13 Jerusalem Center for Daily Affairs Daily Alert (Haaretz, Lebanon Daily Star, YNet News) and one from DEBKAfile, do seem to be setting the Stage for two actions – (1) A take over of the existing Lebanese Government, and (2) An eventual war with Israel.

It appears that Syria and Iran will use Hizbullah, and many of the Palestine Refugee Camps scattered across Lebanon, to unseat Lebanon’s government with weapons and men smuggled into the Sunni Camps and Shiite Hizbullah.

Begin Four Articles

DEBKAfile reports: Palestinian Islamists pound northern Lebanon with Syrian-supplied Katyusha rockets – a new departure in their revolt against Beirut

July 13, 2007, 2:01 PM (GMT+02:00)

Our military sources report the pro-Damascus Palestinian factions fighting the Lebanese army for two months in the northern Nahr al-Bared camp took their first delivery of rockets this week from the Syrian army. The Katyushas were smuggled across the border through the east Lebanese Beqaa Valley, the first items of heavy hardware Syria has ever supplied to its Palest inian surrogates

in Lebanon.

The Lebanese news agency reports three salvoes of 11 rockets fired from the Palestinian camp near Tripoli Friday after two months of clashes with Lebanese forces.

Five landed on the plains of Arqa and Beit Hadara in the northern Akkar province, three more in the Minieh and Deir Emar districts and another three crashed on to the highway linking Lebanon to Syria. At the same time, Fatah al-Islam terrorists launched an attack on a Lebanese position outside the camp and lost 15 men.

Lebanese correspondents describe fires and damaged house and vehicles in North Lebanese villages as reminiscent of the scenes in northern Israel after Hizballah’s 34-day Katyusha barrage last year. No casualties have so far been reported.

Bashar Assad, who has been pumping reinforcements and arms to the Palestinian groups holed up in the northern Lebanese camp, clearly has no compunctions about arming them to blast the civilians of northern Lebanon, to help demonstrate that the Siniora government and Lebanese army cannot provide the country with security.

Among the pro-Syrian Palestinian terror groups fighting alongside radical Fatah Islam is Nayef Hawatmeh’s Democratic Front, which did not stop him from asking Israel this week for permission to enter the West Bank

Kowtowing to Hizbullah

Zvi Bar’el

The dilemma of whether Hizbullah emerged from the Second Lebanon War strengthened or weakened has been resolved by France.

This weekend, Hizbullah figures will arrive in France to conduct a “national Lebanese dialog” under French supervision.

This is the first time Hizbullah has been invited to France as a political entity equal to the other factions, for a meeting intended to find a solution to Lebanon’s political future. (Ha’aretz)

A Divine Victory for Disinformation: Questions about the Veracity of Lebanese Polls about Hizbullah

Michael Young

One year after the summer 2006 war, we’re not sure whether to celebrate Hizbullah’s “divine victory” or bemoan the destruction of our country and its economy.

That disconnect reflects the larger disconnect between Hizbullah and the rest of Lebanese society.

Soon after the war began, a spectacular bit of disinformation surfaced when the Beirut Center for Research published a poll that allegedly showed overwhelming support for Hizbullah.

Unfortunately, rare were the correspondents who could read Arabic and the question put to respondents: “Do you support the Resistance’s opposition to the Israeli aggression against Lebanon?” More loaded a question would have required a firearms license, its answer obvious in advance, particularly when Lebanon was being bombed. (Daily Star-Lebanon)

Next War with Hizbullah Inevitable

Majdi Halabi

Nothing has changed in south Lebanon. The entire region still belongs to Hizbullah and nothing happens there without its approval.

The money available to Hizbullah there is doing its job, and

the southern villages show absolute loyalty to Hizbullah and to Nasrallah. Even weddings are coordinated with Hizbullah so that no “undesirable songs” are played that praise another leader except for Nasrallah. Recently, many Hizbullah flags were hung on 10-meter high flagpoles under the open eyes of UNIFIL and Lebanese troops.

There is no doubt Hizbullah is preparing for another war against Israel, with direct Syrian and Iranian military backing.

(Ynet News)

Begin DEBKAfile Article

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