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A Very Significant Round Trip from Iran to Syria for Planning!

A Round Trip Ride for Rough Riders Starting at the Tombstone O.K. Corral, and Ending at Boot Hill Grave Yard!

July 21, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

The hip hopping excursion, led by Iranian President Ahmadinejad, has been a major planning session for whatever next big Middle East ploy is going to be unveiled in the Middle East by Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas, and all of a last day coalition of Islamic terrorists.

The initial stage of a prophesied Middle East Caliphate Empire is now beginning, with Scene One being the internal planning cooperation, required within the “Evil Axis,” to take over the existing Lebanese government.

When we first began our Web Site in 2000, terrorist groups across the Middle East were beginning to make regular visits to Iran. We have watched them steadily increase to flood stage over

the last seven years. A strong bond has, and is continuing to strengthen among them, with the anchor sunk in Iran. I believe these will culminate in a flood coming against Israel at point in time prior to 2013.

I believe Ahmadinejad’s latest round trip to Syria, and his conversations with Syria and all the terrorist groups with headquarters in Damascus and Lebanon, was to decide how to first take over

Lebanon, with a view to an eventual attack against Israel later on down the road.

In a previous Blog we discussed the initial actions of Ahmadinejad when he landed in Syria. In this Blog DEBKAfile continues to reveal what was done while he was there, and his departure back to Iran.

Began DEBKAfile Exclusive

DEBKAfile Exclusive: Ahmadinejad follows up Damascus talks with a council of war in Tehran Friday with Hizballah, Hamas and Jihadi Islami leaders

July 20, 2007, 11:13 PM (GMT+02:00)

Our Iranian and intelligence sources reveal that the Iranian president flew out

of Damascus Thursday with this group saying: “I prefer cooler places but this region faces a torrid summer of victories.”

Aboard his plane were four HIzballlah leaders, Secy-Gen.

Hassan Nasrallah, defense chief Imam Mughniyeh, chief of staff Ibrahim Aqil and chief of special operations Unit 1800 Hajj Khalil Harb; and Jihad Islami’s Abdallah Ramadan Shalah and operations chief Zaid Nahle.

Head of Hamas’ Damascus HQ Khaled Meshaal did not join the party flying to Tehran to avoid giving his Saudi and Egyptian friends the impression he was in Iran’s pocket. Either he flew there earlier, or else assigned a Hamas representative based in the Gulf to represent his moement at the council of war in Tehran.

As for Syria’s role, DEBKAfile’s military sources reveal that 20 high-ranking Iranian officers were on the Iran president’s flight to Damascus, headed by defense minister Mustafa Najar.

They did not join Ahmadinejad’s talks with Syrian president Bashar Assad.

Instead, they were driven to Syrian General Staff headquarters, where they were awaited by Syrian defense minister Gen. Hassan Turkmani, chief of staff Gen.

Ali Habib and corps commanders.

Our intelligence sources believe this conference was in fact round one of the council of war which continued in Tehran Friday with Hizballah and Palestinian terrorist chiefs.

The most urgent decision facing the Iran-Syrian alliance concerns Lebanon and how far they can go to get rid of the pro-Western Siniora government in Beirut.

Both Iran and Syria understand the United States and France will not stand for its ouster by military or terrorist means. But time is running out.

The international tribunal is about to be installed to start hearing the Hariri assassination case and must be stopped before Assad and aides are prosecuted.

Tehran and Damascus must decide quickly whether to focus on subversive action inside Lebanon or resort to diversionary tactics such as fomenting trouble against Israel on the Golan, from the Lebanese border or from Gaza.

Before Ahmadinejad and party departed Damascus Thursday night, they visited two important Shiite shrines and prayed for victory in the near future. Witnesses heard the Iranian president sobbing loudly.

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Get ready for a whale of an Iraqi

Civil W ar

between Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds for control of Iraqi Oil Fields after American Troops Leave!

July 20, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

I have maintained consistently, since American troops stormed north to Baghdad and conquered Iraq, this one factor of extreme importance – It will be impossible to establish a stable democratic government in the land of Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds.

And I have written many Blogs stating the specifics of WHY it is impossible before the Second Advent. I only hope our withdrawal will not end as did our chaotic withdrawal from Vietnam.

After a U.S. victory was declared in Iraq, I issued Archive Special Prophecy Update Number 114C, more than four years ago.

SPECIAL PROPHECY UPDATE NUMBER 114C

April 7, 2003

Iraq – A Biblical Land of Conquerors and Confusion

The post Saddam government’s character and temperament cannot be expected to maintain a personality that manifests a long-term gratitude for Operation Iraqi Freedom. Its history dictates that initial expressions of thanksgiving must slowly, but surely, return to the standard Islamic attitude toward the big devil United States, and the little devil Israel.

It will never degenerate to the Saddam regime madness, but Iraq will be among the 10 nations that attack Israel some three and on-half years before the final battle of Armageddon.

The new civilian government, which will eventually be installed, will have a violent mixture of the intermingled blood of the 12 sons of Ishmael (the first son of Abraham), the six sons of Keturah by Abraham, and the two sons of Lot (Abraham’s nephew). The first post flood population in the Iraq area was ruled by Noah’s great grandson, Nimrod, who the son of Cush, the son of Ham. Asshur, the grandson of Shem, the son of Noah, peopled the northern part. So, in this area you have intermingled blood of the descendants of all the aforementioned ancestors.

As a matter of fact, the word translated as “mingled” in Daniel 2:43 is “Arab.” The seed of all these ancestors has certainly been “mingled” in the production of offspring, but they have not been able to cleave together continuously except under the control of a very strong leader, and then only for a relatively short period of time.

The great Assyrian warrior kings of 800 to 600 B.C., followed by the great Babylonian king Nebuchadnezzar, and the famous Kurd Saladin from northern Iraq, who united the mingled tribes to drive the crusaders out of Jerusalem in 1187, have shown that only a strong-willed ruler can unite them, and then only for a specific purpose of conquest, which is invariably followed by a period of empire decay as the cleavage of many different bloodlines crumbles. The coming antichrist will be able to unite them for a while, but in the end they will break apart. He will be like Nimrod in character.

Daniel 11:36 – And the king shall do according to his will; and he shall exalt himself, and magnify himself above every god, and shall speak marvellous things against the God of gods, and shall prosper till the indignation be accomplished: for that that is determined shall be done.

Daniel 2:42,43 – And as the toes of the feet were part of iron, and

part of clay, so the kingdom shall be partly strong, and partly broken. [43] And whereas thou sawest iron mixed with miry clay, they shall mingle themselves with the seed of men: but they shall not cleave one to another, even as iron is not mixed with clay.

I have always taught that I believed the antichrist would come out of Syria (See Prophecy Updates 62,63,64,65,66,67,68, and 69), but I have repeatedly stated that I am only certain he will come out of the old Assyrian empire, which would include Lebanon, extreme southeastern Turkey, and northern Iraq. So I will be watching very carefully to see if someone from northern Iraq becomes the President of Iraq.

It will take a really strong, and extremely clever, ruler to unite the Sunni, Shiite,

and Kurdish factions across Iraq.

The 10 toes and 10 horns of Daniel are the same 10 horns of John’s first and second beasts. They are not European nations, and the antichrist is not a European. He is the Assyrian of Micah’s fifth chapter, and the 10 toes and 10 horns are basically mingled (Arab) descendants of Abraham, who practice the Islamic faith – a faith that would be the worship of a strange god unknown to Abraham. The division of the vast riches of the Iraqi oil fields among the different ethnic groups within Iraq would most certainly gain him a loyal following among all the Islamic clerics.

Daniel 11:37,38 – Neither shall he regard the God of his fathers, nor the desire of women, nor regard any god: for he shall magnify himself above all. [38] But in his estate shall he honour the God of forces: and a god whom his fathers knew not shall he honour with gold, and silver, and with precious stones, and pleasant things. [39] Thus shall he do in the most strong holds with a strange god, whom he shall acknowledge and increase with glory: and he shall cause them to rule over many, and shall divide the land for gain.

Daniel 7:24 – And the ten horns out of this kingdom are ten kings that shall arise: and another shall rise after them; and he shall be diverse from the first, and he shall subdue three kings.

Revelation 17:12,13 – And the ten horns which thou sawest are ten kings, which have received no kingdom as yet; but receive power as kings one hour with the beast. [13] These have one mind, and shall give their power and strength unto the beast.

So, Lord willing, I will be paying very close attention to the interplay between the new Iraqi government, Syria, and Iran. This is going to be a very interesting scenario.

End Archive Prophecy Update Number 114C, April 7, 2003

Begin Guardian Limited Article

Iraq’s new coalition: the insurgents

Seumas Milne in Damascus

Wednesday July 18, 2007

Guardian Unlimited

Seven of the most important Sunni-led insurgent organisations fighting the US occupation in Iraq have agreed to form a public political alliance with the aim of preparing for negotiations in advance of an American withdrawal, their leaders have told the Guardian.

In their first interview with the western media since the US-British invasion of 2003, leaders of three of the insurgent groups – responsible for thousands of attacks against US and Iraqi armed forces and police – made clear that they would continue their armed resistance until all foreign troops were withdrawn from Iraq, and denounced al-Qaida for sectarian killings and suicide bombings against civilians.

Speaking in Damascus, the spokesmen for the three groups – the 1920 Revolution Brigades, Ansar al-Sunna and Iraqi Hamas – said they planned to hold a congress to launch a united front within the next few weeks and appealed to Arab governments, other governments and the UN to help them establish a permanent political presence outside Iraq.

Abu Ahmad, spokesman for Iraqi Hamas said: “Peaceful resistance will not end the occupation. The US made clear that it intended to stay for many decades. Now it is a common view in the resistance that they will start to withdraw within a year. ”

The move represents a dramatic change of strategy for the mainstream Iraqi insurgency, whose leadership has remained shadowy and has largely restricted communication with the outside world to brief statements on the internet and to the Arabic media.

The last three months have been the bloodiest for US forces, with 331 deaths and 2,029 wounded, as the 28,000-strong “surge” in troop numbers exposes them to more attacks; the death toll inflicted by insurgents is widely recognised as having been a key factor in the growing political pressure in Washington for withdrawal from Iraq.

Leaders of the three groups – who did not use their real names in the interview – said the new front, which brings together all the main Sunni-based armed organisations except al-Qaida and the Ba’athists, has agreed the main planks of a joint political programme, including a commitment to free Iraq from all foreign troops, rejection of any cooperation with parties involved in the political institutions set up under the occupation, and a declaration that all decisions and agreements made by the US occupation and Iraqi government are null and void.

The aim of the alliance – which includes a range of Islamist and nationalist-leaning groups and is currently called the Political Office for the Iraqi Resistance – is to link up with other anti-occupation groups in Iraq to negotiate with the Americans in anticipation of an early US withdrawal. The programme envisages a temporary technocratic government to run the country during a transition period until free elections can be held.

The insurgent groups deny support from any foreign government, including Syria, but claim they have been offered funding and arms from Iran and rejected it because of suspicion of Iranian motives. They say they have been under pressure from Saudi Arabia and Turkey to unite and claimed to have had indirect contacts with France about creating the conditions for establishing a political presence outside Iraq.

“We are the only resistance movement in modern history which has received no help or support from any other country,” Abdallah Suleiman Omary, head of the political department of the 1920 Revolution Brigades, told the Guardian. “The reason is we are fighting America.”

Central to the new alliance – which also includes the powerful Jaish al-Islami, Jami (the Iraqi Resistance Islamic Front), Jaish al-Mujahideen and Jaish al-Rashideen – is opposition to the murderous sectarianism that has gripped Iraq under occupation, and the role of al-Qaida in particular.

All three Sunni-based resistance leaders say they are acutely aware of the threat posed by sectarian division to the future of Iraq and emphasised the importance of working with Shia groups – but rejected any link with the Shia militia and parties because of their participation in the political institutions set up by the Americans and their role in sectarian killings.

Abd al-Rahman al-Zubeidy, political spokesman of Ansar al-Sunna, a salafist (purist Islamic) group with a particularly violent reputation in Iraq, said his organisation had split over relations with al-Qaida, whose members were mostly Iraqi, but its leaders largely foreigners.

“Resistance isn’t just about killing Americans without any aims or goals.

Our people have come to hate al-Qaida, which gives the impression to the outside world that the resistance in Iraq are terrorists. We are against indiscriminate killing, fighting should be concentrated only on the enemy,” he said.

He added: “A great gap has opened up between Sunni and Shia under the occupation and al-Qaida has contributed to that.”

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A Very Spooky Announcement by Ahmadinejad of a Summer Middle East War!

July 20, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

The article from DEBKAfile, which follows our heading, leaves little to the imagination as to the future plans of Iran’s President Ahmadinejad regarding a Middle East war. For the last 40 years I have constantly maintained that when the Israeli generation, born in 1967, reached its 40th Birthday in 2007, a Major War would break out sometime shortly thereafter, while they were blowing out their candles. If Ahmadinejad believes what he said in the DEBKAfile article, then a major war could break out before this year ends. However, I am going to stick with my prediction of Major War not occurring across the entire Middle East until some point in time between 2008 and the end of 2012.

I believe the “war,” to which Ahmadinejad is referring, is the one I have written about for some time, which I said would occur in Lebanon before the final major Middle East war that drives Israel into the Negev Wilderness. I believe, as I have stated previously, that Syria, Hizbullah, and Iran are planning a war against Lebanon’s elected government. It would behoove them to control all of Lebanon, or at least the southern half of it, before they launched a major strike against Israel from the north. I don’t believe a major coordinated Islamic attack against Israel will be launched against Israel while a large c ontingency of American troops remain

on the eastern border of Syria and

the western border of Iran. I also believe the huge amount of ship and air power in

the waters of the Middle East is a major deterrent to such a war at this time. Also, it is worth considering that Iran has been frantically attempting to come up with an array of WMD warheads for their missiles, as a deterrent to stop Israel from using theirs in a Middle East war. I doubt if Iran will initiate a war against Israel without a deterrent array of WMD’s.

So the long and short of the previous two paragraphs is this – A local war is quite likely to begin between Hizbullah and the Lebanese Army this year or in 2008, as I have stated in previous Blogs. I believe Syria and Iran will lurk in the background, while supplying Hizbullah with all the necessary military hardwire to win such a conflict.

I believe Israel is likely to stay out of it on their side of the northern border, concentrating on their major problems with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and Islamic Jihad and Al-Aksa Martyr’s Brigades in the West Bank.

Hizbullah will eventually win control of Lebanon by the submission of the Lebanese Parliament, or the Parliament will be forced into northern Lebanon, where UN troops are likely to be called in to separate the two.

Hizbullah will once again be restocked with weapons, men, and supplies by Syria and Iran during a time of hudna along the northern border of Israel, after Lebanon is controlled by Hizbullah fanatics. Then, at some point in time prior to 2013, it is my guesstimate that the last war of the Gentiles will begin, finally terminating with the Battle of Armageddon some three and one-half years after it begins.

Begin DEBKAfile Article

“This summer will see Muslim victories in the region and the defeat of our enemies!” – Ahmadinejad in Damascus

July 20, 2007, 1:25 AM (GMT+02:00)

The Iranian president trumpeted Iran’s intentions for t he Middle East w

hen he arrived in Damascus Thursday, July 19.

DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources reveal that behind the braggadocio, his conversation with Iran’s closest ally, Syrian president Bashar Assad, was acrimonious.

In fact, he warned Assad he had better stop signaling his willingness for peace talks with Israel because this behavior was hampering Iran’s plans for a war this summer.

Ahmadinejad reminded Assad that Tehran had spent almost a year on detailed preparations for a summer war and would not tolerate the Syrian ruler sabotaging this effort. Assad was reminded of his huge debt to the Islamic Republic. In the last few months alone, Iran put up hundreds of millions of dollars for Syria’s arms purchases from Russia; Syria gets its oil gratis and raw materials and finished goods at subsidized prices.

Assad replied that with all due respect and appreciation for his Iranian brother’s assistance, he is obliged to look after his country’s interests, while of course cherishing his friendship with Tehran. Ahmadinejad pointed out that the Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert’s condition for talks was the severance of Damascus’ ties with Tehran.

Far from pleasant too was the Iranian president’s conversation with Hizballah’s secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah, who drove to the Syrian capital from Lebanon in a heavily secured convoy. Nasrallah, who lives in fear of any Israel attack, rarely leaves his bunker hideout. Ahmadinejad asked Tehran’s protégé to try and understand that his government was financially squeezed by its preparations for war and was therefore unable at the moment to remit the one million dollars promised to repair the war damage suffered by South Lebanon last year.

The Hizballah leader said that, while he fully understood Tehran’s difficulty, he too was weighed down by the heavy cost of his pledges to the inhabitants of southern Lebanon.

Ahmadinejad had an easier time with the heads of eight of

the nine Palestinian terrorist leaders hosted in the Syrian capital. With them he was upbeat.

Israel is a lot weaker than it pretends, he said, and a concerted struggle with Syria could easily bring down the Zionist state.

He recalled Hizballah’s “victory” last year as demonstrating that the Palestinians would be able to crush Israel without recourse to a large army. The coming months, he boasted, would see him marching into Israel shoulder to shoulder with the Palestinian brothers.

After meeting the group, the Iranian president held face to face interviews with each of the hard-line Palestinian leaders and heard their requests for armaments and funding.

Be fore flying home, he left a group of Revolutionary Guards al Qods Brigade officers with instructions

for the missions to be assigned to each of the Palestinian terror chiefs in the forthcoming summer war.

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Another Move toward False Peace – Shimon Peres – “We have to get rid of the Territories!”

July 19, 2007

http://www/tribulationperiod.com/

I have kept up with the role of Shimon Peres in the framework of the Israeli society for some 40 years. I have been a person whose viewpoint has always been that of a hawk, to the extent I am convinced the only way to deal with the Palestinians, and the entire Middle East collection of terrorists, is by force, not dialogue. Among all those who have formed the historical path of concession toward the enemies of Israel, none of them belong in the same league as President Peres. Although I do not agree with his approach to bringing in peace to the Middle East, I have the utmost admiration and respect for this man, in that he has had the same consistent goal throughout his political life – To being peace to his trouble land. I say that, realizing the only sort of “Peace and Safety” he could ever attain for his people would be false and brief in character. It would also be a definite indicator of a disaster following it, of a magnitude such as the world has never known. Please allow me to summarize this paragraph – There is no leader in Israel who is more capable of bringing in a false, temporary peace through concessions to Israel’s enemies, than Shimon Peres.

But, regardless of how the brief respite of false peace comes in, and who is associated with it occurring, it will be followed by the sequence of events laid out in the following Scriptures.

I Thessalonians 5:3,4 – For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape. [4] But ye, brethren, are not in darkness, that that day should overtake you as a thief.

Matthew 24:21,22 – For then shall be great tribulation, such as was not since the beginning of the world to this time, no, nor ever shall be. [22] And except those days should be shortened, there should no flesh be saved: but for the elect’s sake those days shall be shortened.

Romans 9:27-29 – Esaias also crieth concerning Israel, Though the number of the children of Israel be as the sand of the sea, a remnant shall be saved: [28] For he will finish the work, and cut it short in righteousness: because a short work will the Lord make upon the earth.

[29] And as Esaias said before, Except the Lord of Sabaoth had left us a seed, we had been as Sodoma, and been made like unto Gomorrha.

Romans 11:25-28 – For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.

[26] And so all Israel shall be saved: as it is written, There shall come out of Sion the Deliverer, and shall turn away ungodliness from Jacob: [27] For this is my covenant unto them, when I shall take away their sins. [28] As concerning the gospel, they are enemies for your sakes: but as touching the election, they are beloved for the fathers’ sakes.

Jeremiah 30:7-11 – Alas! for that day is great, so that none is like it: it is even the time of Jacob’s trouble; but he shall be saved out of it.

[8] For it shall come to pass in that day, saith the Lord of hosts, that I will break his yoke from off thy neck, and will burst thy bonds, and strangers shall no more serve themselves of him: [9] But they shall serve the Lord their God, and David

their king, whom I will raise up unto them.

[10] Therefore fear thou not, O my servant Jacob, saith the Lord; neither be dismayed, O Israel: for, lo, I will save thee from afar, and thy seed from the land of their captivity; and Jacob shall return, and shall be in rest, and be quiet, and none shall make him afraid. [11] For I am with thee, saith the Lord, to save thee: though I make a full end of all nations whither I have scattered thee, yet will I not make a full end of thee: but I will correct thee in measure, and will not leave thee altogether unpunished.

Begin Jerusalem Post Article

‘Peres will take on diplomatic roles’

Herb Keinon, THE JERUSALEM POST

July 15, 2007

It is obvious to the Foreign Ministry, officials there said Sunday, that President Shimon Peres will take on various diplomatic roles. According to one ministry source, this has been the case over the last 15 years, regardless of which position Peres has held.

“Peres is a one-man foreign ministry,” the official said, adding that this was not necessarily a bad thing. “This has been the situation for some time, and we are used to it.”

The official said Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni had largely been pushed out of the “loop” by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, so she will not necessarily feel any of her authority whittled away by Peres.

Livni said in a television interview after Peres’s swearing-in ceremony that she welcomed Peres as president, and in fact was one of the first to push forward the idea earlier in the year, against those who warned that he would chip away at her authority.

“If anyone is likely to feel Peres’s presence, it is Olmert,” one Foreign Ministry official said. “He is the one dealing with the diplomacy that Peres is interested in. But Olmert backed him consistently, and Peres owes Olmert a debt. There is no reason for Peres to do

anything against Olmert’s interests.”

On the contrary, the official said Olmert could use Peres and his elevated stature in the world to push forward his own diplomatic agenda.

National Union MK Zvi Hendel accused Peres of starting his presidency on the wrong foot by telling The Associated Press on Sunday that Israel would have to give up land.

“Even before entering his job, he is doing everything to divide the nation into sectors and playing into the hands of his friends, the murderers of the PLO,” Hendel said. “At a time when bombs continue to explode, he says we have to grant the murderers an additional prize by uprooting settlements in Judea and Samaria. I pity him and I hope he doesn’t think the presidency gives him immunity.”

In an interview with The Associated Press prior to his inauguration, Peres said peace with the Palestinians would require Israel to withdraw from significant pieces of the West Bank. “We have to get rid of the territories,” he said, insisting that this was the majority view in Israel today.

He said he would use the presidency to “encourage” the government to take steps for peace, offer advice to the nation’s leaders and “speak to the people. “In public life, you don’t use swords, you use words,” he said. ” You talk to people, you have dialogue.

That’s what I’m going to do.

I don’t have any force but the force of my conviction,” he said.

Although his vision of a “new Middle East” never materialized, Peres has not given up on it. Throughout his interview with The Associated Press, he refused to dwell on the past, insisting on discussing future projects like ending global warming and poverty, and making vague references to “the cosmos” and improving the world for youth.

Peres said he would be willing to meet a president of Iran if it would advance the cause of peace, but not the current leader, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has repeatedly called for Israel’s elimination. Peres noted the long history of ties between Jewish and Persian leaders from Biblical times and until Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

One Foreign Ministry official said that Peres – who is expected to travel widely as president, just as he did in his previous positions – would actually increase the work for the ministry. He will be accompanied in all his visits abroad by the local Israeli ambassador, and will need the staff work of the ministry.

Beyond the narrow interests of the ministry, the official said, there was no questioning Peres’s ability to explain Israel’s position abroad, as well as the value of his wide popularity overseas.

Olmert was full of praise for Peres at Sunday’s cabinet meeting, saying that if academic research would be done into the characteristics needed by the president of Israel, Peres would be the model.

“This is a big day for the State of Israel. It is an important day for our public life,” Olmert said. “It is possible to say he is one of the most prominent people in the world; there is respect for him that radiates on Israel as well. It is an honor for Israel that Shimon Peres is its president.”

One senior official in the Prime Minister’s Office, when asked if there was concern that Peres would chart an independent foreign policy, said Olmert and Peres would work

in close coordination. Israel, the official said, “cannot ask for a better ambassador.”

Gil Hoffman contributed to this report.

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Another Middle East Article suggesting immediate Major War!

July 19, 2007

http://www.tribulationperiod.com/

Although I do not believe a full-scale, all-out war between Israel and the Islamic will occur this year, I do believe it is quite likely one will suddenly rush in at some point in time from 2008 to the end of 2013.

07/11/2007 08:00 PM | By Amir Taheri, Special to Gulf News

As the Middle East

marks the first anniversary of the “mini-war” between Israel and Hezbollah, there is concern that this summer may witness another, and bigger, military conflict involving Syria as well.

There is some evidence that Syria is preparing for what its Vice President Farouk Al Sha’ara calls “all eventualities”, a euphemism diplomats use when they mean war.

Syria signed a mutual defence pact with Iran under which Tehran has started shipping large quantities of arms to Syria.

Earlier this year the Islamic Republic also set up a company to build two weapons assembly plants in northern Syria.

Tehran has also provided Syria with an interest free loan amounting to $1.2 billion, part of which will be spent on purchasing new Russian-made MiG-31E fighters to modernise Syria’s semi-derelict air force.

Iran has also managed to re-arm the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah, thus rebuilding its capabilities for opening a new front in support of Syria.

If a war comes in the near future, Syria could also count on Hamas to open yet another front against Israel from Gaza.

Syria has rebuilt much of its traditional strategic partnership with Russia, thus countering US efforts to isolate it. Damascus and Moscow are negotiating a deal, under which the headquarters of the Russian war fleet could be transferred to the Syrian port of Latakiyah from Sebastopol in the Ukraine.

Moscow fears that the Ukraine, which may by

then become a member of the European Union, might not renew the Sebastopol lease to let the Russian navy stay.

Syria’s President Bashar Al Assad has retailored his discourse to balance his appeals for a negotiated peace with threats of armed resistance a la Hezbollah.

There is no doubt that Syria feels in a stronger position than it did a year ago.

The Ba’ athist leadership in Damascus

has been immensely encouraged by the Democrats’ victory in last November’s elections in the United States.

Nancy Pelosi, the leader of the new Democrat majority in the US Congress, made Damascus one of her first ports of call in her quest for an alternative to President George W. Bush’s strategy of bringing democracy to the Middle East.

The visit made nonsense of Bush’s efforts to isolate Syria with a promise that a Democrat president in 2009 would revive the traditional US policy of courting the Ba’athist leadership in Damascus.

After years of decline, the Syrian economy has returned to growth, thanks to massive investments by Iran.

Early temptation

Having abandoned his early temptation to liberalise the system, Bashar has reverted to his late father’s iron fist style of rule, allowing the security services to assert control over all organs of state.

He is also encouraged by the way Arab and international opinion have assessed the outcome of last year’s “mini war”. Despite the fact that Hezbollah suffered a crushing defeat in military terms, it managed to portray itself as a victor simply because its military machine was not totally destroyed.

The perception in Damascus is that Arab and Muslim public opinion would regard any future Israeli military victory as a defeat for the Jewish state.

When I toured the Lebanon-Israel border area a few weeks ago, there were no signs at all that a war had been fought less than a year ago.

Hezbollah flags were flying high on several “watch-posts” of the party and on a number of hilltops right under the nose of the United Nations’ peacekeeping force that is supposed not to allow such demonstrations of defiance.

A number of Hezbollah vehicles were also making the rounds, keeping watch on all coming and goings of the UN force.

The surest sign that Washington’s efforts to isolate Damascus have failed is
Israel’s undisguised enthusiasm for peace talks with Syria.

When I met Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in his office in Occupied Jerusalem a few weeks ago, he denied that he was “starry-eyed” about prospects for peace with Syria. Nevertheless, he made no secret of his keenness to talk to the Syrians, even if that meant undermining Bush’s strategy.

At last month’s meeting with Olmert at the White House, Bush finally sated that Israel was free to conduct whatever negotiations it wished with Syria. But he also made it clear that the US would not take part.

Such a public divergence in American and Israeli policies on so vital an issue is certain to encourage the hardliners in Damascus that their adversaries are disunited and unable to develop a common strategy.

The complex game that Damascus is playing is also influenced by fears that the Arab peace proposal, first formulated by King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz of Saudi Arabia, and later endorsed by the Arab League, may lead to serious negotiations with Israel, thus marginalising Syria.

If the Arab initiative leads to a solution of the Palestinian problem, possibly through the creation of a Palestinian state, Syria would be left alone with its Golan Heights still under Israeli occupation.

Thus, Bashar’s tantalising offer of talks to Israel may be prompted by his desire to derail the Saudi peace proposals before they gain any momentum.

Paradoxically, the current apparent divisions within the US and between the US and its Arab and Israeli allies appears to have strengthened the hands of the war party in both Damascus and Tehran.

Iranian author Amir Taheri is basedin Europe.

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