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Planning for an Iraqi Pullout is on the Move!

May 13, 2007

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Vice-President Cheney has been hopping around like Peter Cottontail on the Bunny Trail in the Middle East. I agree with the DEBKAfile Article, which follows, that this is the first stage of planning talks for a pullout of American troops from Iraq. Of course, I do expect early denials from the Head Shed at first, but this is the pre-planning stage of the eventual withdrawal.

The time of the final withdrawal of all troops is extremely important, because it will open the door for an initial Islamic attack against Israel as soon as Iraq climbs on the Islamic Jihad bandwagon as one of the 10 nations in a Jihad blitzkrieg. My guesstimate of a major war starting in the Middle East before 2013 is looking better and better. Having been blown out of the saddle by the Israelis

in 1948, 1956, 1967, and 1973, I believe the Islamic nations will make sure they are fully prepared for the attack this time. It could start as early as 2008 or as late as 2012, depending as to when the troops leave Iraq, and how well prepared the Islamic nations want to be before they launch a 10 nation strike.

It will take time for Iraq to be transformed completely into another true Middle East Islamic Republic, but I believe before 2013 she will be a genuine Middle East monster, and some of the training and weapons we provided them will be turned on the Israelis.

Please take the time to read the following analysis of the present events and possible reactions from it, as DEBKAfile describes them.

Begin DEBKAfile Article

Cheney Lines up Middle East Arab Allies for US Iraq Pull-out and Possible Iran Attack

May 12, 2007, 12:28 PM (GMT+02:00)

US Vice President Dick Cheney arrived in Riyadh Sat. May 12, with a full caseload for his talks with Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz . He is seeking coordination with the Saudis in good time for the approaching winding-down of US military forces in Iraq. Cheney will also clinch the Bush administration’s offer to double the Saudi air force in size, boosting its capability for contending with Iranian air might and the Revolutionary Guards’ naval and marine strength.

The USS offer of advanced warplanes was first revealed by DEBKAfile when it was presented in Riyadh by visiting US defense secretary Robert Gates last month.

The vice president’s regional presence from Wednesday, May 8, set up a whirlwind of activity.

In Baghdad, he had a tough message for Iraqi leaders that time was running out and the country’s security crisis had reached a critical point.

“We’ve got to get this work done. It’s game time. … Everybody’s got to sit down, raise their game, redouble their efforts,” he is quoted as saying.

He then flew to Abu Dhabi for talks with the deputy chief of UAR armed forces, Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahayan.

Friday, aboard the USS John Stennis, one of two US air carrier strike groups deployed in Gulf waters, the vice president pledged the US would “stand with others to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons and dominating this region.”

This statement was not taken in the Gulf as a military threat, but rather a message that Washington is not looking for a military showdown with Iran, at this sensitive juncture ahead of a US troop withdrawal from Iraq, but rather bidding for strategic understandings to hold in check Iran’s nuclear weapons plans, on the lines of the accommodation with North Korea, while conditionally allowing enrichment of uranium to go forward.

In the last two weeks, Washington has marginally trimmed down the US buildup opposite Iran’s shores. Shortly before Cheney arrived, the Bonhomme Richard Expeditionary Strike group reached the Gulf with 6,000 men – not to augment the US naval presence, but to relieve the USS Boxer Strike group which is returning to base.

While no Bush administration official has publicly admitted to a timeline for the US pull-out from Iraq – and has in fact fought one tooth and nail through Congress – DEBKAfile’s sources in Washington, the Gulf and Baghdad report that Cheney is bringing the news to the Middle East rulers that Washington will make its decision in the second half of August and an evacuation

will begin shortly thereafter.

In parallel with preparations for a partial US exit from Iraq, DEBKAfile discloses that Washington and Iran will embark on negotiations, which could lead to the Bush administration accepting parts of Tehran’s civilian nuclear activities, including uranium enrichment in agreed quantities.

In the meantime, as part of US preparations for this event – and a possible Iranian threat – American military strength in the Gulf is regrouping, while Saudi forces are being buttressed.

The coming weeks may, therefore, see President George W. Bush backing down on two of his most stubbornly-held foreign policy issues: a timeline for US forces to depart Iraq and uranium enrichment by the Islamic Republic.

Israel, which will be vitally affected in the years to come by these sweeping regional changes, happens to be ruled by a leadership too crippled by survival tactics to look ahead and prepare.

Its Arab neighbors are in contrast running ahead, with the Saudis and Jordanians already on the move in April. (Jordan’s Abdullah has launched a new diplomatic initiative for the West Bank, disclosed in a separate report in this page)

April 1, the Saudi monarch met Adm. William J. Fallon, US Central Command chief. April 16, he received defense secretary Gates and, two days later, April 18, he held a long conversation with the US state department Iraq coordinator, David Satterfield.

These talks led to a decision to make the Saudi air force the biggest in the Middle East, on a par with Israel’s air might, by an infusion of sophisticated aircraft equipped with the most advanced avionics, electronic warfare instruments and missiles.

In a war contingency, the boosted Saudi air force will undertake the key function of immobilizing the antiquated Iranian air force, preventing it from posing a threat to the Gulf or providing air cover for sabotage squads or marines seeking to attack oil installations, disrupt oil tanker passage through the Gulf or seize territory in Gulf emirates.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report: The Iranian air force, numbering 600 combat-ready fighter-bombers, is technologically backward and weak in combat skills. Some of its planes are early American models or home-made craft based on outdated US, Chinese or Russian technology.

The Saudi air force is smaller – 350 aircraft organized in 17 squadrons – but more modern and in better shape – even before the promised American infusion, which is likely to consist of first line F-16 Cs and Ds, F 15 Es and possibly

the F 22 Raptor. Israel has strenuously objected to this upgrade. However, since last year’s Lebanon war, the Olmert government has by and large found itself talking to deaf ears in Washington.

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ANY PORT IN A STORM!

May 12, 2007

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The recent panic at high levels, because of an unfavorable assessment handed down on Israeli governmental blunders in last years conflict with Hizbullah, could cause events to follow the path described in the Michael Freund Blog, which follows.

When personal survival is placed above national interests, some quite weird decisions are often made to stay in power.

I prepared this Blog just after midnight on Saturday morning. When I arose on Saturday morning to get ready to go to the nursing home, a new article appeared in the Jerusalem Post that lends credence to the first article which follows, so I attached it at 10 AM to what you have just read above.

It appears below as the second article. This development is worth watching. Michael Freund may be correct in his prediction of a “Peace” Surprise!

Begin Arutz Sheva Blog Article

Beware of a Possible “Peace” Surprise!

24 Iyar 5767, 12 May 07 08:48

“Fundamentally Freund” – Michael Freund

(IsraelNN.com) we might very well find ourselves in a situation where the Government will be willing to make far-reaching concessions to

our neighbors not because they believe them to be in the broader national interest, but rather because they serve their own narrow political self-interest.

Ehud Olmert is in trouble.

Big trouble.

Between the findings of the Winograd Commission, and the slew of criminal investigations being conducted against him, the Prime Minister’s popularity has sunk to all-time lows. His governing coalition appears increasingly fragile, and calls for him to resign grow louder with each passing day.

And this should have us all very, very worried – because in his hopelessly weakened state, the premier may very well decide to take rash or desperate steps in the diplomatic sphere in an attempt to stave off the possibility of being forced from office.

And the spurt of diplomatic activity over the past few days may just point in such a direction. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni met with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and agreed to a visit by an Arab League delegation in Israel. King Abdullah of Jordan will be meeting soon with PA Chairman Abu Mazen, and the Lebanese Prime Minister published an op-ed in the New York Times calling on Israel to accept the Saudi peace plan.

And so, we might very well f ind ourselves

in a situation where the Government will be willing to make far-reaching concessions to our neighbors not because they believe them to be in the broader national interest, but rather because they serve their own narrow political self-interest.

Sound cynical? Perhaps. But it wouldn’t be the first time that a prime minister made fateful decisions based on political, ra

ther than strategic, calculations.

So brace yourselves for a possible diplomatic surprise – one that is likely to be detrimental, rather than advantageous, to Israel and its interests.

Begin Jerusalem Post Article 2

Livni: Israel must hand over W.

Bank for two-state solution

JPost.com Staff, THE JERUSALEM POST

May 12, 2007

Any future Palestinian state will require Israel to withdraw from the West Bank, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said in an interview to Egyptian newspaper al-Ahram on Saturday.

According to Livni, Israel is ready to move forward in negotiations with the Palestinians,

and is waiting for the Palestinians to take responsibility for the violence and extreme forces within Palestinian society.

“The majority of the Israeli nation understands not only the need for peace, but also the need to compromise for a solution to achieve this peace.

“And in this context, I present the vision, shared by the majority, of a two-state solution, one for Jews and one for Palestinians… the path to the [creation of] a Palestinian state begins with the denunciation of terrorism. I am convinced that this reflects not only the interests of Israel, but also the interests of the Palestinians.

During the interview, which took place as part of the foreign minister’s visit to Cairo, Livni said that the 2005 Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip was a necessary and crucial step in the peace process. Livni said that in order to complete this process and create a Palestinian state, Israel will need to withdraw from the West Bank as well.

Livni also said that Israel does not want to control the Palestinians.

Livni’s visit culminated in a meeting with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Jordanian Foreign Minister Abdelelah Al-Khatib in Cairo, where the Arab League peace initiative was discussed.

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Palestinians could have had their own State for 59 Years!

May 12, 2007

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Those of us who were around when Israel became a nation remember quite well that if the Arabs had accepted the United Nation Resolution, then an independent Palestinian State would have been formed without a war, and a refugee problem would not exist today. The Palestinians and bordering Arab nations cut their own throats in 1948, thinking they could easily defeat the pitiful little rag tail Israeli forces with their much greater numbers, as well as more

and better weaponry. But, much to the mass surprise of virtually everyone, including myself, the Israelis smashed the Arab forces like they were flies.

Since that time, as a vet of two wars, I have always respected the Israeli military.

If you were not alive at that time, don’t remember, or have never read about the 1948 War,

the Haaretz article, which follows, covers it from the aspect that the Palestinians seem to act as if the chaos of the last 59 years is the fault of Israel. They will not acknowledge they created this 59 year old mess, and are continuing to cut off their noses to spite their faces.

The article by Shlomo Avineri is the straight skinny of the event as it came down, and I certainly agree with his conclusions.

Begin Haaretz Article

Until They Accept Responsibility

May 10, 2007

Shlomo Avineri (Ha’aretz)

The UN resolution that established the State of Israel on May 15, 1948, also stipulated that an Arab state was to be established. The Palestinians mark May 15 as “Nakba” (“Catastrophe”) Day, as something terrible and evil that happened to them. Yet there is not even an iota of introspection, self-criticism and readiness to deal with the Palestinians’ own contribution to their catastrophe.

If the Palestinians had accepted the UN resolution, then an independent Palestinian state would have risen on part of Mandatory Palestine in 1948, without war and

without refugees.

To this day, no book in Arabic has raised the question of whether the Arabs erred in rejecting the compromise UN partition plan.

There is a complete unwillingness among the Palestinians to acknowledge that in 1948 they and their leaders made a terrible historic mistake by rejecting the compromise they were offered.

It is for this reason that the Palestinians’ customary comparison between the Nakba and

the Holocaust is so outrageous. Did the Jews of Germany and Europe declare war on Germany? Were the world’s Jews offered a compromise that they rejected?

There will be no true compromise between Israel and the Palestinians without a readiness on their part to admit that they, too, are partly responsible for what happened to them in 1948.

The writer, a professor of political science at Hebrew University, is a former director-general of the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

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Only FULL APPEASEMENT can satisfy the Terrorists!

May 11, 2007

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Partial appeasement never satisfied Hitler. He wanted all of Europe and Russia plus elimination of the Jewish race. After that he wanted the world.

Partial appeasement will never satisfy Hamas, Hizbullah, Islamic Jihad, and al-Aksa Martyrs Brigades.

They don’t w ant to be

a State alongside the State of Israel.

They want all of Israel, including the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and the end of the Jewish State in the Middle East.

Gestures that involve appeasement are considered signs of weakness on the part of those who make them, and it leads terrorists to believe they can “get it all.” After that they want the world.

I learned the art of appeasing inspectors when we were inspected by a team of inspectors from the next head shed above us in the government complex. You make the action of the activity so impressive that it seems you are making progress when you are not. With enough diagrams and charts attractively presented to the inspectors, sufficient praise of their work and the head shed they came from, introducing several clever new “catchy” expressions of the latest program you have developed, and praise for the suggestions they make to improve your new program, it is quite possible to get a glorious inspection report of your “progress for the sake of progress” presentation. The Head Shed is happy and they all lived happily ever after in the land of never, never!

After chasing the bird of paradise up our noses, and venturing into efforts to bring a true lasting peace to the Middle East in administration after administration, and President after President, we are no closer to doing so than we were 59 years ago. Please do not get the idea I think I could have done any better – There is no doubt in my mind I would have made a much bigger mess. But there was never any doubt in my mind of something else – No matter what man, men, woman, women, or nations tried to straighten out the mess, the only thing that could ever come out of it would be some kind of false peace, which I now believe is likely to come into being in the form of a seven or ten year hudna (truce) with the Palestinians, which will be broken after it has been in place long enough to give Israelis a false sense of “Peace and safety.” It might come in some other way, but there will be a FALSE PEACE.

I Thessalonians 5:3,4 – For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape.

[4] But ye, brethren, are not in darkness, that that day should overtake you as a thief.

Begin Jerusalem Post Article

US official: Bush gov’t appeasing Arabs

THE JERUSALEM POST

HILARY LEILA KRIEGER, Jerusalem Post Correspondent

May 10, 2007

The Bush administration is undertaking much of its current Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy to appease the Arabs and Europeans, a top White House

official told a group of Jewish Republicans recently, according

to those present.

Deputy National Security Adviser Elliott Abrams said much of the heightened State Department activity with the two parties was “process for the sake of process” and being done to “assuage the Arabs and the Europeans, who haven’t been happy with the United States [and are] happy to see that there’s at least an attempt or energy being put into the peace process,” according to one attendee at the closed-door meeting.

In response to a question raised at the event about whether “European and Arab pressure could put Israel in a corner,” the National Security Council issued a statement saying that “ultimately, the United States provides an emergency brake.”

Abrams also told the meeting that he would guard against the bureaucrats at the State Department taking over American Middle East policy, as well as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice falling into the “Clintonian mode” of needing to point to achievements to secure her legacy as her term concludes, according to someone at the discussion.

The source was referring to the increased pace of diplomatic arm-twisting in search of peace between Palestinians and Israelis on the part of president Bill Clinton in the waning days of his time in office.

Rice has traveled to the region several times this year and brokered meetings between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas as part of efforts to create a “political horizon” of the contours of a Palestinian state. Most recently, the administration presented both parties with a set of benchmarks concerning freedom of movement and security undertakings as a basis of discussion.

Another visit by Rice to Israel and the Palestinian Authority had been in the works, but was postponed last week, a decision the State Department attributed to scheduling issues and the delicate Israeli political situation.

Some observers suggested Rice would have had little to show for her trip, as the sides have differed on the benchmark proposal. Hamas, which controls much of the PA, has rejected it outright, while some Israeli officials have also been critical of the document.

Abrams is said to have suggested, however, that these smaller-level moves, as well as the US plan to help train Palestinian security forces, are more achievable and helpful in the short-term.

Those at the Abrams briefing said they didn’t detect tensions between Abrams and Rice, but rather between the White House approach and that of the State Department bureaucracy. Rice is a newcomer to that establishment, as she served above Abrams as national security adviser during President George W. Bush’s first term.

The NSC stressed that there was no daylight between Rice and Abrams or between

the State Department and the White House.

“Advancing toward peace between Israelis and Palestinians and toward the president’s vision of two states living side by side in peace and security is not only Secretary Rice’s goal, it is a key goal of the President’s,” the NSC statement said. “It is inaccurate to suggest that the White House and State Department are at odds on this issue, for

the entire administration – including Mr. Abrams – is committed to pursuing it and the rest of the President’s agenda.”

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A Foolish Shepherd in Israel!

May 11, 2007

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Since Jerusalem became a cup of trembling to all the Arabs around her, I have been waiting a long time for a foolish Prime Minister shepherd to arise in Israel in the last days, prior to Israel being attacked by ten Islamic nations. A May 9th editorial from Haaretz indicates a crop of foolish shepherds to now be available as candidates for Prime Minister.

I have never been overly confident in my interpretation of Zechariah 11:15-17, so you will find nothing about it on our web site. In my early ministry, I believed it was fulfilled by Simon Bar Kokhba in 132-135 AD, but I could see the fulfillment might still be future, so I decided to not comment on it until events in Israel would give me some clue as to which way to go. I still am not certain which way to go, but because of the arrival of so many foolish shepherds in

Israel, as well as in our own country, I am leaning toward the opinion that the fulfillment of these verses is still future.

If you will study the life and times of Bar Kokhba, and the physical mutation of a part of their hand he required those who served him to perform, you will see why I am torn between two different interpretations of these verse.

Bible commentaries do differ on the interpretation of Zechariah 11:15-17 – Some indicate that the “foolish shepherd” found there is the end time antichrist, saying he must be a Jew, while others say it was Simon Bar Kokhba, who was defeated by the Roman Hadrian in the 132-135 AD Jewish Rebellion. The correlation of time with the context makes me think it is still future, so I will just wait and see if a foolish shepherd eventually shows up out of the present crop. As I recall, Bar Kokhba was the Jewish Prince of

Israel for about three years.

Zechariah 11:15-17 – And the Lord said unto me, Take unto thee yet the instruments of a foolish shepherd. [16] For, lo, I will raise up a shepherd in the land, which shall not visit those that be cut off, neither shall seek the young one, nor heal that that is broken, nor feed that that standeth still: but he shall eat the flesh of the fat, and tear their claws in pieces.

[17] Woe to the idol shepherd that leaveth

the flock! the sword shall be upon his arm, and upon his right eye: his arm shall be clean dried up, and his right eye shall be utterly darkened. [1] The burden of the word of the Lord for Israel, saith the Lord, which stretcheth

forth the heavens, and layeth the foundation of the earth, and formeth the spirit of man within him. [2] Behold, I will make Jerusalem a cup of trembling unto all the people round about, when they shall be in the siege both against Judah and against Jerusalem.

Begin Haaretz Editorial

Contempt for the Public

May 9, 2007

By Haaretz Editorial

Following months of anticipation for the Winograd Committee’s interim report on the government’s performance during the Second Lebanon War, the public is now awaiting the final report.

Since the end of the war, the public has come to the conclusion that its government cannot be trusted to manage future crises successfully. Nonetheless, there is no majority in the Knesset to translate this sense of disquiet into deeds.

To date, the prime minister has not yet bothered to respond personally before lawmakers to the findings of the Winograd report.

Instead, he sent Vice Premier Shimon Peres and Interior Minister Roni Bar-On to pledge “rectification,” the exact nature of which remains a mystery.

This exercise in marketing is designed to give the impression that the government of failure is a thing of the past, to be replaced with a government of repair. To make for a more authentic impression, the powers that be appointed former chief of staff Amnon Lipkin-Shahak to head a new sub-committee to handle implementation of the reforms.

This is indicative of the determination of the Prime Minister’s Office to “sell” change at any cost – a stance that is somewhat contemptuous of the public, comprised of the very home front that was neglected in the previous war, and will probably be neglected in the next.

The current Knesset is full of lawmakers who have no political goals, or any other goals for that matter. They are an arbitrarily assembled group that serves only to fill candidate lists of parties devoid of institutions.

They are uncommitted to any well-defined constituency.

They are only bucking for a second career, and have no future in politics. They might have just as easily presided in any other political faction, but they chose Sharon’s Kadima and the convergence plan only to find themselves with Olmert and a war in Lebanon.

These MKs are aware that they will only be serving a single term, and this awareness ensures political stability.

But it will also cost votes come election time. An 86 percent voter turnout, as France has seen in recent weeks, will not visit us any time soon. In fact, voter turnout is steadily declining from one election to the next.

The common belief that all politicians are alike, and likewise corrupt, is gaining traction.

This relates not only to criminal corruption, but also to that phenomenal survivability that our politicians boast, owing to cronyism.

Monday’s no-confidence votes demonstrated yet again how alienated parliament is from the sentiments of its constituencies. Only 28 MKs voted in favor of ousting the government over the Winograd report, as though the prime minister had been handed nothing more than a parking ticket.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who canceled her planned visit to Israel, realized something that has not been understood by ministers in a government desperately searching for a defense minister to rescue it, a government in which the foreign minister is demanding the resignation of the prime minister, and in which the finance minister has been suspended from duty on suspicion of stealing

from the public purse.

Even if the Winograd report were to state that some of the military operations were pointless, aimed only at creating the impression of victory where victory was nowhere to be found, Ehud Olmert would not resign.

Never before has Israel’s future so heavily depended on the veteran Labor Party, its institutions and its members.

It is no coincidence that Labor Chair Amir Peretz was forced to draw conclusions about the war while Olmert held his position. The internal struggle within Labor reflects the clash between national responsibility and the hedonism of power.

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