A Dead Horse Economy Cannot Be Propped Up Forever!
February 4, 2008
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
I Timothy 6:6-9 – But godliness with contentment is great gain. [7] For we brought nothing into this world, and it is certain we can carry nothing out. [8] And having food and raiment let us be therewith content. [9] But they that will be rich fall into temptation and a snare, and into many foolish and hurtful lusts, which drown men in destruction and perdition.
After having listened to many highly educated wizards of finance since I retired from the USAF-NSA in 1971, I have tried to understand from their opinions as to how the U.S. economy functions, hoping to be able to comprehend it. As an analyst, I have only been able to come to this rather sad conclusion – If you put 10 experts together to discuss what we call “the economy,” you get at least six different opinions. I thought weather forecasting was difficult because of its many variables, but making the right forecast of what the economy will be like next week is, in my opinion, much more difficult.
There are not a lot of definite statements that can be made concerning the American economy, but there is one in the article which followings our heading, which I believe is quite definite. It certainly explains why there are so many bank mergers going on at an accelerated rate, and it only contains four little words:
“THE BANKS ARE BUSTED!”
Over the last 33 years I have had many people ask me what role the U.S. will play in the final fulfillment of prophecy, since we are such a nation of great wealth and influence on this planet. One of the things I have considered and believed as an answer to this question is this – I believe it is quite likely we won’t have as much wealth, influence, and backbone when the tribulation period begins, as most people seem to think.
I am NOT predicting another 1929 stock market crash this year. But I am convinced this economy cannot be propped up like a living body with life in it much longer. I remember a couple of movies in which the actors carried a dead man with
them, trying to manipulate his body to give the impression he was still alive. Such a feat can be successful for a while, but then a certain smell of death begins to be omitted, which is impossible to cover with perfume, and the truth eventually comes out. I do not believe the market is going to crash immediately, but I do believe the truth is going to come out about greed and dishonesty at high levels in its structure, such that it will begin to release an ever increasing unpleasant order of financial deceit.
The highs and lows will continue and profits will be made on the buy low, sell high, for a while, but eventually the glory days are going to come to a screeching halt.
The Clinton Administration pumped hot air high tech manipulations into the American Economy until it appeared to be an overweight race horse. The Bush Administration kept right on pumping in hot air. So the U.S. economic horse’s feet floated off the ground in his initial term, as tax cuts and tax refunds gave the illusion of a healthy economy. Now, in his last term, more tax refunds and Fed cuts in interest rates are being employed to temporarily lift the economy. This is being done in order to hand over the next administration what the present one can say was not too bad when they turned it over.
One secondary position I held for a short period was to act as financial comptroller for Eighth Weather Squadron. It was for a couple of years, so I know a tad about finances, but I am no expert. I do know that the economy can be temporarily lifted by printing and distributing more money to its more impulsive spenders to immediately put back into new purchases, but in a short time after the impulsive surge, the economy will be in a worse condition than before the surge. Additionally, many who get the rebates are not impulsive spenders, and will use the rebates to pay off their existing debts, which does not immediately help the economy.
Our economic race horse is top heavy, over inflated, and has been kept propped up by financial manipulations in high places. Alan Greenspan is a financial wizard and he knew when to step down. America would be well advised to get ready for a rough ride, with a lot of high and low, up and down, jars on the charts and in the saddle. Don’t be surprised if, at the end of our ride, after all the highs and lows, our race horse takes a long winter’s nap at a much lower grass level of influence and wealth, which generate international power.
Please take the time to read the following article by Mike Whitney. It is the best I’ve read on the current U.S. economic situation.
Begin Alex Jones’ Info-Wars-Net Article
http://infowars.net/print.php
America’s teetering banking system
Mike Whitney
Online Journal
Friday February 1, 2008
Somebody goofed. When Fed chairman Ben Bernanke cut interest rates to 3 percent Wednesday, the price of a new mortgage went up. How does that help the flagging housing industry?
About an hour after Bernanke made the announcement that the Fed Funds rate would be cut by 50 basis points, the yield on the 30-year Treasury nudged up a tenth of a percent to 4.42 percent. The same thing happened to the 10-year Treasury which surged from a low of 3.28 percent to 3.73 percent in less than a week. That means that mortgages, which are priced off long-term government bonds, will be going up, too.
Is that what Bernanke had in mind, to stick another dagger into the already-moribund real estate market?
The Fed sets short-term interest rates (The Fed Funds rate) but long-term rates are market-driven. So, when investors see slow growth and inflationary pressures building up, long-term rates start to rise. That’s bad news for the housing market.
Now, here’s the shocker: Bernanke knew that the price of a mortgage would increase if he slashed rates, but went ahead anyway.
How did he know?
Because nine days ago, when he cut rates by 75 basis points, the 10-year didn’t budge from its perch at 3.64 percent. It just shrugged it off the cuts as meaningless. But a couple days later, when the House passed Bush’s $150 billion “Stimulus Giveaway,” the 10-year spiked with a vengeance — up 20 basis points on
the day. In other words, the bond market doesn’t like inflation-generating government handouts.
So, why did Bernanke cut rates when he knew it would just add to the housing woes?
Some critics say that he just wanted to throw a lifeline to his fat-cat investor buddies on Wall Street by providing more liquidity for the markets. But that’s not it, at all. The fact is Bernanke had no choice. He’s facing a challenge so huge and potentially catastrophic that cutting rates must have seemed like the only option he had. Just 1ook at these graphs and you’ll see what Bernanke saw before he decided to cut interest rates.
Negative bank reserves
The banks are busted.
The first graph (Total Borrowings of Depository Institutions from the Federal Reserve) shows that the banks are capital impaired and borrowing at a rate unprecedented in history.
The second graph (Non-Borrowed Reserves of Depository Institutions) shows that the capital that the banks do have is quickly being depleted.
The third graph (Net Free or Borrowed Reserves of Depository Institutions) is best summed up by econo-blogger Mike Shedlock who says, “Banks in aggregate have now burnt through all of their capital and are forced to borrow reserves from the Fed in order to keep lending. Total reserves for two weeks ending January 16 are $39.98 billion. Inquiring minds are no doubt wondering where $40 billion came from. The answer is the Fed’s Term Auction Facility.” [Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis] So the only reserves they have is capital they borrowed from the Fed.
The forth Fed graph illustrates the steep trajectory of the ever-expanding money supply. (Monetary Base).
A careful review of these graphs should convince even the most hardened skeptic that the banking system is basically underwater and insolvent. We are entering uncharted waters. The sudden and shocking depletion of bank reserves is due to the huge losses inflicted by the meltdown in subprime loans and other similarly structured investments.
How capital is destroyed
When US homeowners default on their mortgages en masse, they destroy money faster than the Fed can replace it through normal channels.
The result is a liquidity crisis which deflates asset prices and reduces monetized wealth, says economist Henry Liu.
The debt-securitiz ation process is in
a state of collapse. The market for structured investments — MBSes, CDOs, and Commercial Paper — has evaporated leaving the banks with astronomical losses. They are incapable of rolling over their short-term debt or finding new revenue streams to buoy them through the hard times ahead. As the foreclosure avalanche intensifies; bank collateral continues to be downgraded which is likely to trigger a wave of bank failures.
Henry Liu sums it up like this: “Proposed government plans to bail out distressed home owners can slow down the destruction of money, but it would shift the destruction of money as expressed by falling home prices to the destruction of wealth through inflation masking falling home value.” [The Road to Hyperinflation, Henry Liu, Asia Times] It’ s a viciou
s cycle.
The Fed is caught between the dual millstones of hyperinflation and mass defaults. There’s no way out.
The pace at which money is currently being destroyed will greatly accelerate as trillions of dollars in derivatives are consumed in the flames of a falling market. As GDP shrinks from diminishing liquidity, the Fed will have to create more credit and the government will have to provide more fiscal stimulus. But in a deflationary environment; public attitudes towards spending quickly change and the pool of worthy loan applicants dries up. Even at 0 percent interest rates, Bernanke will be stymied by the unwillingness of undercapitalized banks to lend or overextended consumers to borrow. He’ll be frustrated in his effort to restart the sluggish consumer economy or stop the downward spiral. In fact, the slowdown has already begun and the trend is probably irreversible.
The financial markets are deteriorating at a faster pace than anyone could have imagined. Mega-billion dollar private equity deals have either been shelved or are unable to refinance. Asset-backed Commercial Paper (short-term notes backed by sketchy mortgage-backed collateral) has shrunk by $400 billion (one-third) since August. Also, the market for corporate bonds has fallen off a cliff in a matter of months. According to the Wall Street Journal, a paltry $850 million in high-yield debt has been issued for January, while in January 2007 that figure was $8.5 billion — 10 time s bigge
r. That’s a hefty loss of revenue for the banks. How will they make it up
?
Judging by the Fed’s graphs, they won’t!
Bernanke’s rate cuts sent stocks climbing on Wall Street, but by early Wednesday afternoon the rally fizzled on news that Financial Guaranty, one of the nation’s biggest bond insurers, would be downgraded. The Dow lost 37 points by the closing bell.
“MBIA Inc, the world’s largest bond insurer, posted its biggest-ever quarterly loss and said it is consider
ing new ways to raise capital after a slump in the value of subprime-mortgage securities the company guarantee. The insurer lost $2.3 billion in the fourth-quarter.
Its downgrading from AAA will cripple its business and throw ratings on $652 billion of debt into doubt. Many of the investment banks have assets that will get a haircut,” according to Bloomberg.
he New York State Insurance Department tried to work out a bailout plan but the banks could not agree on the terms [ed note: They don’t have the money.]
“Bond insurers guarantee $2.4 trillion of debt combined and are sitting on losses of as much as $41 billion, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts. Their downgrades could force banks to write down $70 billion, Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney said Wednesday in a report.” [Bloomberg]
“The bond insurers were working the same scam as the investment banks. They found a loophole in the law that allowed them to deal in the risky world of derivatives; and they dove in headfirst. They set up shell companies called transformers, (The same way the investment banks established SIVs, structured Investment Vehicles) which they used as off balance sheets operations where they sold ‘credit default swaps,’ which are derivative instruments where one party, for a fee, assumes the risk that a bond or loan will go bad.” [The Bond Transformers, Wall Street Journal] The bond insurers have written about $100 billion of these swaps in the last few years. Now they’re all blowing up at once.
“Credit default swaps (CDS) have turned out to be a goldmine for the bond insurers and they’ve given a boost to the banks too, by freeing up capital to use in other ventures. The banks profited on the interest rate difference between the CDOs (collateralized debt obligations) they bought and the payments they made to transformers . . . The banks sometimes booked profits upfront on the streams of income they expected to receive.” [WSJ]
Neat trick, eh? Who wouldn’t want to enjoy the profit from a job before they’ve done a lick of work?
Even now that the whole swindle is beginning to unravel — and tens of billions of dollars are headed for the shredder — industry spokesmen still praise credit default swaps as financial innovation. Go figure?
Politicians still getting their marching orders from Wall Street
The leaders of Europe’s four largest economies (England, France, Germany, Italy) held a meeting this week where they discussed better ways to monitor the world’s markets and banks.
They did not, however, push to create a new regime of oversight, regulation and punitive action that would be directed at financial fraudsters and their structured Ponzi scams. Politicians love to talk about greater transparency and watchdog agencies, but they have no stomach for establishing the hard-fast rules and independent policing organizations that are required to keep the carpetbaggers and financial hucksters from duping gullible investors out of their life savings. That is simply beyond their pay grade. And that is why even now — when the world is facing the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression — corporate toadies like British Prime Minister Gordon Brown merely reiterate the script prepared for them by their boardroom paymasters: “If these agencies don’t reform themselves, the Europeans would turn to regulatory response to enforce change.”
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