Two Reasons Why I do NOT expect an All-Out War this Year, and One Reason Why I could be Wrong!
June 17, 2007
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
I am not hedging, although I do confess the title does certainly give that impression.
I really do not guesstimate that a full-scale major war will break out in the Middle East until some point in time between 2008 and the end of 2012, with the latter half of that time span being the most likely. I have two definite reasons for believing this will be the case, and one reason for thinking a certain scenario might bring it in this year.
Begin Archive Special Prophecy Update Number 17A, April, 2001
SPECIAL PROPHECY UPDATE 17A
April, 2001
EARLY ISRAEL NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT QUANTITY & QUALITY GROWTH!
I have recently received queries, from scanners of our web, requesting a more detailed outline of the history of Israel’s nuclear development. The outline is as follows:
1956 – Israel asks France for a nuclear reactor in return for her cooperation in the 1956 Suez recovery campaign.
1957 – The French begin to build an atomic reactor at Dimona in the Negev wilderness.
1960 – The 24 megawatt reactor is completed supposedly for the purpose of generating commercial power. After the French leave, the Israelis jack it up to 150 megawatts in order to build atomic bombs.
1964 – The first atomic bomb is completed. I will not discuss where, or how, it was tested.
1967 – Egyptian overflights of Dimona in May cause Israel to launch pre-emptive strikes in June against her Arab neighbors because of the fear of three pronged air strikes against her nuclear facility, and the Six Day War begins. Israel has a few atomic bombs at that time, but does not use them.
1968 – About 200 tons of yellowcake (crude uranium) is smuggled into Israel in December off a Liberian tanker.
1969 – Israel develops her first hydrogen bomb. I will not discuss how, or where, it was tested.
1973 – Israel is attacked by her Islamic neighbors, but does not use her numerous nuclear weapons.
2001 – Israel now has more than 200 nuclear warheads. Many are mounted on Jericho missiles in the Negev wilderness. These missiles are capable of reaching all targets in the Islamic kingdoms of the Mid-East.
Israel also has more than enough chemical and biological warheads to launch against any nation that launches the same against her. I do not believe Israel will launch chemical, biological, or nuclear warheads unless they are first launched against her. If the armies of Islam are able to drive her into the Negev without launching any of the aforementioned types of warheads against her, and will stop their advance north of Beersheba, I do not believe that Israel will
launch her warheads against them.
End Archive Special Prophecy Update Number 17A, April 2001
When I retired from the NSA-USAF Branch at Ft. George G. Meade in 1971, I had not kept any written record of anything I ever participated in, or knew about, or of, in the Agency. I made no notes at home and never discussed anything with anyone, not even my wife. I kept my vow of silence for seven years and did not travel outside the United States until 1982.
Since 1982 I have traveled frequently to the Middle East, Europe, Eurasia, and Africa.
I am including this paragraph for two reasons.
First, to assure those who read it that I have never betrayed the security of any information that has not become known generally since my retirement, and will take some things with me to my grave. Second, to advise those who read my Blogs, that I kept no notes, and at age 75, I must warn you that my memory does not work like a computer file – It is fuzzy.
The history of Israel’s nuclear history may have at couple of glitches from 1956 to 1971 due to poor memory, and my sources and estimates after 1971 are based on what I knew at retirement, and subsequent analysis of events as they painted pictures of WMD and missile development by statements coming out of Israeli intelligence sources, which are fair game.
I will assure you of this, poor memory or not, faulty analysis or not, Israel has sufficient WMD to completely destroy the military capabilities of Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, and Hamas within a matter of hours, and because of the efficiency of the electronic intelligence intercept collected by the Soviets on Israel, and then shared with Syria and Iran, I do not believe Iran will start an all-out Middle East War until it is satisfied it has sufficient deterrent WMD it can deliver by missiles against Israel. That is the first reason I do not look for a major war this year.
The second reason is found in two paragraph excerpts from a lengthy article by Stewart M. Powell in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer on May 22, 2007, which follows:
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/316612_secondsurge22.html
U.S. quietly, dramatically increasing Iraq troop levels
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Last updated 12:20 p.m. PT
By STEWART M. POWELL
HEARST NEWSPAPERS
“[This “second surge” of troops in Iraq, which is being executed by extending tours for brigades already there and by deploying more units, could boost the number of combat troops to as many as 98,000 by the end of this year. When support troops are included, the total number of U.S. troops in Iraq could increase from 162,000 now to more than 200,000 — the most ever — by the end of the year.]”
“[The buildup was designed to give commanders the 20 combat brigades that Pentagon planners said were needed to provide security in Baghdad and in western Anbar province.]”
End Two Paragraph Quote
With some 200,000 American troops in Iraq between the eastern border of Syria and the western border of Iran, and a gigantic allied armada poised to strike from Gulf and Mediterranean waters, I seriously doubt if either one would deliberately start a Major War in the Middle East this year.
This is, of course my second reason for believing there will not be a Major Middle East War this year.
However, it is possible that the United States and Israel, both hav ing a lot of hot political chestnuts
in the fire, which have driven the popularity of the Bush and Olmert Administrations to the depth of the great Marianna Trench, might try to pull all their chestnuts out of the fire by using their current military might to crush the built up military potential of Syria and Iran to wage war This action would also disrupt the Iranian support to a multiplicity of terrorist groups continuously growing around the world. That is exactly what I think they should do, because this may be their last chance. We need to start a Middle East war now while we have forces in large numbers in Iraq and Israel can cream Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas, and all the other internal terrorist groups.
But I do not believe the attitude of the American public will allow it to be done. Best of British luck to the next President and Congress, you are going to need it because you bailed out on God – In Self We Trust!
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