Roadmap fall s
through Collapsed Bridge – Cry for Iraq Pullout Grows – Desperation could cause All-Out War – Maybe Now – But more likely Later!
June 16, 2007
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
The Middle East conflicts and rumors of conflicts between different ethnic groups across the Middle East remind me somewhat of the early part of 1939 in Europe before Hitler invaded Poland.
The following set of articles paint a grim current situation across all the Middle East, and I will admit the possibility of a war breaking out this year, provided that Israel and the U.S. administration get frustrated to the point of pulling all their political chestnuts out of the fire.
They might attempt to do it by blowing up Iran’s Nuclear Facilities and in-country terrorist training centers, while Israel charges across Gaza in a full thrust invasion, killing every Hamas mother’s son, and lies in wait just hoping Syria and Hizbullah will cross its northern border. If that scenario does not happen, the war will likely be delayed until some point in time between 2008 and the end of 2012, which has been my guess for a long time. I do not think Syria and Iran want a war until Iran has a deliverable deterrent nuclear arsenal
and American troops are pulled out of Iraq. If the Bush Administration wants to win the war against terrorists in the Middle East, and Israel wants to crush the Palestinian terrorists in Israel, and secure its northern border, NOW is the time to pull their political chestnuts out of the fire by going to war. The terror organizations and terrorist Islamic countries are only going to grow stronger if they fail to do so!
Begin Excerpt of First Half of Article Extracted from “Middle East on Line” by Patrick Seale.
Middle East War or Peace this Summer?
June 15, 2007
Middle East Online
Patrick Seale
In view of several negative trends, some Israeli planners are thought to believe that the last months in office of George W.
Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney present what might be a last opportunity for Israel to defeat all its enemies in an extended war, says Patrick Seale.
As Ehud Olmert, Israel’s prime minister, prepares to travel
to Washington next week to meet President George W. Bush on June 19, the Middle East is awash with rumours of war — but also
of peace. Which will Olmert press for with his American “Big Brother”?
Some observers predict a hot summer in the Middle East. They think Olmert will seek Bush’s backing for another war in Lebanon, perhaps extending this time to Syria, to finish off their common enemies — Lebanon’s Hizbullah and President Bashar al-Asad’s regime in Damascus — in preparation for a joint assault on their ultimate nemesis, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad in Tehran.
Israeli troops have recently carried out large-scale manoeuvres in both the Golan and the Negev, as if preparing for a much trumpeted second round, which some Israeli strategists believe is necessary to restore Israel’s deterrent capability, severely dented by the military fiasco in Lebanon last summer.
An American armada, including two carrier battle groups and 150 strike aircraft, has assembled on the approaches to the Iranian coast.
But another theory is that neither Israel nor the United States are ready for war. The United States and Iran have held a preliminary meeting in Baghdad, which might lead to more exchanges, while the Israeli media have reported that Olmert has sent secret messages to President Bashar in Damascus, responding positively to the Syrian leader’s repeated calls for a resumption of negotiations.
Patrick Seale is a leading British writer on the Middle East, and the author of The Struggle for Syria; also, Asad of Syria: The Struggle for the Middle East; and Abu Nidal: A Gun for Hire.
PM expected to leave for US talks
JPost Staff and AP, THE JERUSALEM POST
June 15, 2007
Sources in Jerusalem said Saturday that the recent incidents in the Gaza Strip have caused a new, harsh reality which cannot be repaired.
They said that the void between Hamas and Fatah was final, and that not only would Hamas have to capture the whole Strip, but also provide for over a million civilians, Israel Radio reported Saturday.
The sources stressed that Israel would not let Hamas take over the West Bank
and emphasized that Israel would help Abbas to improve the economic and security situation there.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was expected to leave for a three day visit to the United States on Saturday evening to meet with US President George W. Bush and other senior officials, including UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon.
Bush reportedly told President-Elect Shimon Peres in a telephone conversation on Friday night that he and Olmert would discuss “issues of great significance” and that he expected the visit to be fruitful, Israel Radio reported Saturday.
Bush had also said that terrorists can’t be allowed to win in the Gaza Strip and hold their heads high forever.
Peres told Bush that Hamas’s takeover of Gaza this week was “tragic,” but that the new reality presented not only difficulties, but also possibilities. According to Army Radio, Peres also added that Israel would do everything possible to strengthen those in the Palestinian Authority who sought peace.
Earlier, Olmert spoke with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and promised to take steps to bolster Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, his office said.
“Israel will do all it can to help moderates in the Palestinian Authority after the radical Hamas took Gaza by force,” a statement released by his office said.
The following articles were taken from the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs Daily Alert, June 15, 2007
Hamas Seizes Final Fatah Positions in Gaza City
Avi Issacharoff
Hamas fighters seized control of the Palestinian presidential compound in Gaza City on Thursday, the last of four key Fatah-run security compounds in the city which are now all under Hamas control. Hamas gunmen broke into the homes of Mahmoud Abbas and Mohammed Dahlan in Gaza and looted them. 99 Palestinian policemen loyal to Fatah who were border guards at Rafah fled to Egypt. (Ha’aretz)
Fatah’s Collapse in Gaza Rocks its West Bank Status
Khaled Abu Toameh
Fatah gunmen and PA policemen rounded up more than 30 Hamas officials and supporters in Bethlehem, Ramallah, Nablus, Jenin and Tulkarm on Thursday in an attempt to consolidate Fatah’s grip on the West Bank.
Hamas does not have security bases in the West Bank, nor does it have armed groups that roam the streets openly. Yet Hamas remains popular in several cities.
In the last municipal elections, Hamas candidates scored major victories in Ramallah, el-Bireh, Bethlehem, Nablus and Kalkilya.
It’s true that many West Bankers are unhappy with what Hamas has done in Gaza. But there are still many Palestinians who are fed up with the scores of Fatah armed gangs that have long been running wild in the West Bank. Fatah gunmen may control the streets of the West Bank, but this does not mean they enjoy the support of the majority of the Palestinian public. In fact, Fatah’s humiliating defeat in Gaza is likely to undermine its standing in the West Bank. (Jerusalem Post)
Hamas Executes Fatah Men as Their Wives and Children Watch
(AP/Washington Times)
A witness named Amjad said men were killed as their wives and children watched.
“They are executing them one by one,” Amjad said by telephone.
“They are carrying one of them on their shoulders, putting him on a sand dune, turning him around and shooting.”
Fatah officials said Hamas shot and killed seven of its fighters outside the Preventive Security building.
A doctor at Shifa Hospital said he examined two bodies that had been shot in the head at close range.
As Gaza Unravels, Palestinians Flee
Ilene R. Prusher
(Christian Science Monitor)
Figures collected by European monitors at Rafah, the crossing into Egypt, show that some 14,000 Palestinians have left Gaza in the past year.
Palestinian officials had asked to close the Rafah crossing into Egypt when they saw they could not protect European monitors there.
“The real people controlling Rafah are Hamas, because they’re just outside the checkpoint and they’re controlling who can come and go,” said Shlomo Dror, Israel’s spokesman for the coordinator for government activities in the territories.
Gazans who hope to leave are turning to agents
who demand several thousand dollars for a plane ticket and a visa. The idea is to get to Egypt, and then, when the plane stops somewhere in Europe on its way west, to get off and ask for political asylum.
Assad Abu Nihad paid $2,500 to a broker to arrange his son’s trip. The son got off the plane in Spain on his way to Cuba and claimed asylum.
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