IS IT SAFE TO TAKE A GUIDED TOUR TO ISRAEL?
July 16, 2012
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
Even at age 80 I would not be afraid to go alone, but after being stationed in the Middle East in 1952 and 1953, and making many trips, I would no longer guide a tour group in view of the current explosive condition on Israel’s borders. I have no intension to go to Israel because I’ve learned the things over the years the Lord wanted me to know about the Middle East by being physically present there.
After Obama was elected to the Presidency in 2008, I considered his actions in the first half of 2009 – Then, based on my assessment of his foreign policy with world leaders, it was obvious he was a novice, and was out of his league in dealing with North Korea, Russia, China, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, and many other Islamist Radical groups. I then considered the unrest in many Sunni dictatorships and when it appeared U.S, troops would be withdrawn from Iraq and Afghanistan.
So, being s synoptic analyst who retired from the National Security Agency, and a graduate of the Orlando Military Academy, I put all of my assessments together and began to issue on my blogs that the most likely time for the long awaited Middle East final war to begin was at some point between 2014 and 2016. I have seen no reason to change my guesstimate. So it might be safe to go prior to 2014. But when the final war of this age actually begins, bear in mind that Hezbollah, the pawn of Iran, will suddenly begin launching a barrage of some 42,000 rockets and missiles on Israel.
In 2005 I had scheduled to take a group tour with Pilgrim Tours during the period July 11 to 20, but cancelled it in the spring of 2006 because I thought a war might break out in the summer of 2006. The war broke out on July 12, 2006 and lasted until August 14, 2006. I thank God I cancelled the trip. Hezbollah fired some 4000 rockets into northern Israel during this war.
I made my final trip in 2009 before Hezbollah could restock a gigantic arsenal of missiles and rockets.
Why would I not take a tour group to Israel at this time?
FOR THE FOLLOWING REASON:
“The Israelis estimate that Hezbollah possesses around 42,000 missiles and rockets, including long-range weapons capable of hitting anywhere in Israel and which are changing the nature of Middle Eastern warfare.”
Even though I do expect the final war will most likely occur between 2014 and 2016, it is just my opinion, and it could occur before or after that time. No one will be safe from this huge volume of missiles anywhere in Israel. And the Ben Gurion Airport will be in range in the coming war.
Please read the following excerpt so you will realize what could suddenly be flying south out of southern Lebanon.
Begin Excerpt from UPI.COM
Israel fears Hezbollah has killer SAMs
Israel’s military says Lebanon’s Iranian-backed Hezbollah has long-range surface-to-air missiles supplied by Syria, significantly boosting its defences.
Published: Jan. 19, 2012 at 2:46 PM
TEL AVIV, Israel, Jan. 19 (UPI) — As the Middle East frets about a regional conflict, Israel’s military says it believes Lebanon’s Iranian-backed Hezbollah has long-range surface-to-air missiles supplied by Syria, significantly boosting its defenses against the Jewish state’s formidable air power.
The Jerusalem Post reported Thursday that the military command “is also working under the assumption” that the Lebanese movement, which fought Israel’s armed forces to a standstill in 2006, has obtained several dozen long-range M600 surface-to-surface missiles from Syria, Iran’s ally.
Hezbollah is already believed to have a substantial number of M600s, which are Syrian-produced clones of Iran’s Fateh-100 missile.
The M600 has a range of around 190 miles and carries a warhead containing a half-ton of high explosives.
The Israelis estimate that Hezbollah possesses around 42,000 missiles and rockets, including long-range weapons capable of hitting anywhere in Israel and which are changing the nature of Middle Eastern warfare.
That’s more than three times the number of missiles Hezbollah had at the outset of the 34-day war in July-August 2006. Hezbollah fired nearly 4,000 rockets and missiles, or around 200 a day, into Israel’s northern Galilee region during that conflict.
That was the heaviest bombardment Israel’s civilian population endured since the state was founded in 1948 but that pales against the threat the nation faces from the missile arsenals of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and the Palestinian radical of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Military officials have warned Israel’s population of 7 million that Israeli cities could be hit by 500 projectiles a day for weeks on end if a new conflict erupts.
“According to Western intelligence assessments, Hezbollah is believed to have taken advantage of the ongoing upheaval in Syria to obtain advanced weapons systems, such as additional long-range rockets as well as Russian-made air-defense systems,” Post military analyst Yaacov Katz wrote.
The Israelis said Shiite guerrillas, who have underground missile depots across their heartland in the Bekaa Valley of northeastern Lebanon along the Syrian border, possess the SA-8, a Russian mobile SAM system with an estimated range of around 20 miles.
The Israeli air force, the strongest in the Middle East and equipped largely with U.S.-made aircraft and weapons systems, is capable of countering the SA-8 with electronic jamming systems and precision-guided munitions.
It displayed these capabilities Sept. 6, 2007, when seven F-15I Raam fighters destroyed a suspected nuclear reactor being built by North Korea in Syria at Deir al-Zor 80 miles from the Iraqi border.
The warplanes in Operation Orchard were able to evade Syrian air defenses during the night-time raid because an electronic warfare aircraft accompanying them blinded Syrian radars and missiles defenses.
However, if Hezbollah has SA-8s in sufficient numbers to hurl multiple missiles at Israeli aircraft, which have enjoyed unchallenged mastery of the skies over Lebanon for decades, it could impede airstrikes.
These are likely to be aimed at Hezbollah’s missile storage sites and launch sites. In the first 36 hours of the 2006 war, Israeli warplanes destroyed most of Hezbollah’s long-range missiles before they could be used.
That saved Israel from far greater damage during the fighting.
With enough SA-8s, and the large quantity of Russian shoulder-fired SAMs Hezbollah is believed to have received from Syria over the last two years, the battle-hardened guerrillas could blunt Israeli air operations for a time to a degree not seen since the invading Egyptians drove off Israeli jets in the opening days of the 1973 war.
Apart from the addition of “several dozen” M600s to its armory, Hezbollah is believed to have acquired additional 302mm Khaibar-1 rockets from Syria. These have a range of around 62 miles.
The Israelis’ big fear is that the Damascus regime, battling against a stubborn 10-month-old pro-democracy uprising aimed at toppling President Bashar al-Assad, will transfer advanced weapons systems, including chemical weapons, to Hezbollah if it looks like the opposition is going to win.
In the meantime, Syria has been acquiring new systems from Russia, a key backer of Assad’s regime.
In December, the Russian Interfax news agency, quoting military sources in Moscow, said Russia had delivered supersonic Yakhont SS-N-26 anti-ship cruise missiles to Damascus despite calls for a U.N. arms embargo on Assad’s regime.
The 2007 contract, worth an estimated $300 million, reportedly involved at least two coastal-defense Bastion anti-ship systems with 72 Yakhonts.
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