A Lot of Sword Rattling with Show and Tell, but no War at this Time!
November 4, 2006
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
There is a lot of “look what I can do” going on in the Persian Gulf zone, but there will be no major conflict developing out of it. The allies began to “show their stuff” around Halloween, and their forces met on the first two days of November in the Persian Gulf.
Begin First DEBKAfile Article
Exclusive to DEBKAfile’s military sources: US aircraft carriers USS Eisenhower and USS Enterprise in the Red Sea off the Saudi Arabian coast
November 1, 2006, 2:20 PM (GMT+02:00)
The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower, accompanied by its carrier strike group, passed through the Suez Canal on Monday, Oct. 30, and arrived in the Red Sea on Tuesday, Oct. 31.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the USS Eisenhower is at sea off the Saudi Arabian coast, together with another aircraft carrier, the USS Enterprise. The presence of the two US aircraft carriers, and their accompanying strike groups, in a body of water as small as the Red Sea is an extraordinary development. So far there have been no indications that the USS Eisenhower arrived to replace the USS Enterprise.
US Intelligence director John Negroponte also is in the region.
He was in Saudi Arabia over the weekend and in Cairo on Tuesday, and is due to arrive in Israel on Wednesday, Nov.
1. With the arrival of the USS Eisenhower in the region, there are now three US aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters, including the USS Iwo Jima. Accompanying the USS Eisenhower are the guided-missile cruiser USS Anzio, the guided-missile destroyers USS Ramage, and USS Mason and the nuclear-powered fast-attack submarine USS Newport.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that a fourth US aircraft carrier, the USS Boxer, will arrive on the scene by the beginning of next week, together with its carrier strike group. The USS Boxer is currently taking part in joint US-Indian naval maneuvers, dubbed Malabar ’06, which include the landing of marines on beaches.
End First DEBKAfile Article
Just as soon as Iran got wind of the Halloween armada assembling in the Persian Gulf, she immediately announced she would respond with her own version of “show and tell” demonstrations of her high tech weaponry on both land and sea.
Begin First Jerusalem Post Article
Iran set for Large-Scale Naval Exercise
Associated Press, THE JERUSALEM POST
November 1, 2006
Iran unexpectedly announced Wednesday that it would be holding military maneuvers in the Gulf this week, only days after US-led navies held exercises in the same waterway.
Iranian state television quoted the head of the Revolutionary Guards, Gen.
Yahya Rahim Safavi, as saying the 10-day maneuvers, named “Great Prophet,” would take place in the Gulf and the Sea of Oman, beginning Thursday.
“The war games are aimed at demonstrating the deterrent power of the guards against possible threats,” Safavi said.
Safavi stressed the drills were not a threat to neighboring countries, saying: “Our neighbors are our friends. The guards just want to prove that they are ready to resist any threatening situation.”
His announcement came two days after US-led warships finished a two-day maneuver in the Gulf, an exercise that Iran described as “adventurist.”
Iran said the six-nation drills would not improve security in the Gulf waters, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil passes.
It also called on Gulf nations to set up their own regional security arrangements.
The US-led maneuvers focused on surveillance, with warships tracking a ship suspected of carrying components of illegal weapons. The nations that took part were Australia, Bahrain, Britain, France, Italy and the United States.
Iran regularly holds large maneuvers, often using them to test weapons developed by its arms industry.
On Wednesday, Safavi told state TV: “The guard’s air force will test fire the Shihab-3 (missile), equipped with cluster a warhead, in the war game.”
End First Jerusalem Post Article
Sure enough, Iran actually began on Thursday to show a demonstration of her ability to perform both offensively and defensively in the event of a future attack against her.
Begin Second Jerusalem Post Article
Iran test-fires long-range Shihab-3
Associated Press, THE JERUSALEM POST
November 2, 2006
Iranian state-run television said Thursday the country had test-fired dozens of missiles, including the long-range
Shihab-3, during the first hours of new military maneuvers.
The report said the elite Revolutionary Guards also had launched several kinds of short-range missiles in a central desert area of Iran.
The newscaster did not elaborate about where the maneuvers were located. But earlier Wednesday, the head of the Revolutionary Guards, Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, said the 10-day maneuvers, named “Great Prophet,” would take place in the Gulf, the Sea of Oman and several provinces of the country.
The Shihab-3 missile is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and is believed to have a range of more than 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles). It can reach Israel and US forces in the Middle East.
Safavi said the war games are aimed at demonstrating the deterrent power of the Guards against possible threats.
He stressed the drills were not a threat to neighboring countries, but his announcement came two days after US-led warships finished a two-day maneuver in the Gulf – an exercise that Iran described as “adventurist.”
The state-run TV said that among the other weapons tested during the maneuvers was the Shahab-2, which Iran says has a cluster warhead that can send 1,400 bomblets at the same time. Solid-fuel Zalzal missiles also were launched, as were guided missiles as well as Scud-B, Zolfaghar-73 and Z-3, it said.
Iran has said that the US-led six-nation drills this week in the region would not improve security in the Gulf waters, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil passes. It also called on Gulf nations to set up their own regional security arrangements.
The US-led maneuvers focused on surveillance, with warships tracking a ship suspected of carrying components of illegal weapons. The nations that took part were Australia, Bahrain, Britain, France, Italy and the United States.
Iran regularly holds large maneuvers, often using them to test weapons developed by its arms industry.
End Second Jerusalem Post Article
Iran continued to show off her wide variety of different missile types, including the Shehab-3 ballistic missile.
Begin Second DEBKAfile Report
DEBKAfile Exclusive: Iran announces test-firing of ballistic Shehab-3 missiles in first hours of new military maneuvers
November 2, 2006, 11:41 AM (GMT+02:00)
Several kinds of short-range missiles were also launched in central desert area of Iran early Thursday, Nov.
2.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report: Iran responded Wednesday night, Nov. 1, to the US-led naval movements and buildup in the in the Red Sea (see separate item) with an announcement by its Revolutionary Guard commander General Rahim Safavi of a big, new naval exercise opening on Nov. 2. Dubbed Great Prophet, the 10-day maneuver will take place in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
The RC Air Force would, he said, for the first time test-fire the Shehab-3 (picture of first firing) armed with “a cluster warhead.” The Shehab-3 is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and believed to have a range of more than 2,000 km. It can reach Israel and US forces in the Middle East. Our military experts add: This war game will demonstrate whether or not the Shehab-3 stands up to Iran’s boasts of its capabilities, including
its effective deployment in large numbers. If so, it will pose a lethal strategic threat to Israel, US deployments in the Middle East and Iran’s neighbors. Israel’s Arrow anti-missile missile system, developed for defense against the Shehab, is not capable of fending off an attack by large numbers of multiple-warhead missiles.
End Second DEBKAfile Report
I think it could be said that during this week we were allowed to see what likely amounts to Iran’s full missile arsenal.
Begin Third Jerusalem Post Article
Iran test fires 3 new missiles in Gulf
Associated Press, THE JERUSALEM POST
November
3, 2006
Iran has successfully test fired three new models of missiles in the Persian Gulf, state TV reported Friday.
Television showed footage of the elite Revolutionary Guards firing the missiles from mobile launching pads on the shore, and from warships.
The three new types of missiles, named Noor, Kowsar, and Nasr, have a range of about 170 kilometers and were built for naval warfare, TV reported.
The weapons are “suitable for covering all the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian gulf and the sea of Oman” said Admiral Sardar Fadavi, the deputy navy chief of the Revolutionary Guard.
Some 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes every day through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
The Revolutionary Guards began maneuvers on Thursday, shortly after a US-led military exercise in the Gulf.
End Third Jerusalem Post Article
I do not believe this sword rattling will produce a widespread Middle East war until some point in time between 2008 and 2012. I do not believe the Arabs actually believe they can defeat Israel operating under the existing placement of foreign forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. I do expect the placement of foreign forces in the Middle East to change between 2008 and 2012, and the military capabilities of the Arab nations to greatly increase, which will cause them to be successful against Israel in a war for the first time since 1948.
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