The Eventual Syrian Strike against Israel Still Looks Good for a Point in Time Between 2008 and 2012.
October 13, 2006
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
There are four different recent articles from sources in the Middle East that would tend to make one believe a war could occur in 2006 or 2007, but I seriously doubt that will be the case. I have given numerous reasons in many of my previous blogs as to why I believe it very unlikely that a war has much chance of breaking out prior to 2008. I am passing along the four articles for your consideration.
I know an Israel-Arab war will certainly occur, but not as early as the DEBKAfile report presents as a possibility in the following article. Syria, Iran, Lebanon are not, in my opinion, able to win such a conflict at the present time, and they know it. As I indicated some time ago, I believe 2008 is the earliest they might be able to defeat Israel, and they night not reach that capacity until 2012. They still have a lot of building up militarily before such an attack will be launched.
The excerpt, following the DEBKAfile Report, by Yaakov Katz in the Jerusalem Post on October 9, titled “IDF prepares Response to Possible Attack by Syria,” gives a skeleton assessment of Syria’s current military capabilities.
I believe Syria will want to build up its capabilities much more before they attack Israel, which is one of the reasons I originally guesstimated 2008 to 2012 as the most likely timeframe in which such an attack would occur.
Begin DEBKAfile Report
DEBKAfile’s sources: Tehran and Damascus are gearing up for a pre-emptive Syrian attack on Israel to ward off a US strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.
October 7, 2006, 9:52 AM (GMT+02:00)
Our military and Washington sources read as preparatory justification the Syrian ruler Bashar Asad’s statement Saturday, Oct. 7, that he expects an Israeli attack. He was speaking in an interview to Kuwaiti paper al-Anba. Asad’s Iranian-backed war plan would serve the purpose of forcing the Americans to divide their military assets between a strike against Iran and the defense of their allies in the Persia Gulf, Israel and US forces in Iraq. Both are seriously looking at a Syrian attack on the Golan which would escalate into a full-blown Syrian-Israeli war and a second Hizballah assault from Lebanon.
Assad’s remark that during the Lebanon hostilities, he was under pressure from the Syrian population to go to war against Israel and liberate the Golan is the most direct threat of belligerency of all his four Golan statements in the last month. He is implying that he stood up to the pressure once but may not do so again. And for the benefit of the Americans, the Europeans, the Saudis and the Egyptians – all of whom are pretty fed up with him – Assad is posing as the picture of self-restraint; anyone else in his place, he implies, would have taken advantage of the Lebanon war and made a grab for the Golan. Therefore, he is saying, he deserves to be treated with the respect due to a strategic asset by Western and moderate Arab powers instead of being targeted for an ouster.
The Syrian ruler would not threaten war without guarantees from Iran.
According to DEBKAfile’s sources, Asad and Iran’s supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are prompted by the following motives:
1. Tehran is not prepared to wait passively for the Americans to build up their assault force in the Gulf and strike its nuclear facilities. A pre-emptive attack would suit them better.
2. Tehran and Damascus have not missed the debilitating crisis in which Israel’s political and military leadership are sunk since the Lebanon war. They do not propose to wait until the IDF pulls itself together enough to handle fresh aggression.
3. Both accept Israel’s deputy prime minister Shimon Peres’ assessment that Israel’s cities are not prepared for missile attack. Iran and Syria take it for granted that Israeli leaders understand they cannot afford to launch missiles against either one of them for fear of reprisal in kind.
4. Syria believes that if Hizballah could stand up to the Israeli army in Lebanon, its commandoes can capture sections of the Golan and walk off with an easy victory.
5. Tehran figures that the Bush administration is coming to the end of its patience in Iraq and preparing for a major review of its position there. The influential U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman, John Warner, said Friday that Iraq`s government had 60 to 90 days to control the violence that threatens civil war or the United States would have to reconsider its options. This gives the Maliki government in Baghdad up to December or January to de-escalate if not halt the sectarian war engulfing the country. Iran, Syria and Hizballah would not be averse to disrupting the American Iraq timeline by attacking Israel and putting the Bush administration on the spot, forced to address three warfronts simultaneously.
End DEBKAfile Report
Begin Excerpt from Jerusalem Post Article by Yaakov Katz
October 9, 2006
While Israel has uncontested air superiority over Syria – the IAF boasts F-16s and F-15s while the Syrian air force’s newest jet is the MiG-29 from 1987 – the Syrian military has built up a strong array of missiles including some that are capable of carrying warheads filled with nerve gas, such as Sarin and VX. Damascus is currently in a race to build up its army and has recently drastically increased its defense budget after some $14 billion in loans it owed were erased.
According to the Middle East Military Balance, published by the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, Syria has several hundred Scud missiles, some of which it received in 2002, and close to 100 ballistic missile launchers.
On the ground, the IDF infantry and Armored Corps would face 12 Syrian ground divisions, equipped with 3,700 Russian tanks, including 122 T-72s upgraded by an Italian firm in 2003.
Syria also has more military personnel than Israel – 290,000 soldiers compared to almost 180,000.
At the moment, the IDF is at a heightened state of alert along the border with Syria and has deployed additional forces in the North in case of a surprise attack.
End Jerusalem Post Extract
Military Sources Intelligence Corps Warning – Reasonable Chance of War between Israel and Syria in 2007!
October 12, 2006
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
Although my guesstimate for the likelihood of a war to begin with Syria is at some point in time between 2008 and 2012, it is interesting to notice the following Middle East News Letter excerpt reports a warning it is reasonable to expect it to begin in 2007. I certainly do believe each year that passes increases the possibility of it beginning the following year.
It certainly appears, from the two excerpts which follow, and numerous other articles from Middle East sources, that Middle East war is a sure bet eventually, but I doubt if it will occur before 2008. There has to be more preparation by Syria, Hizbollah, Lebanon, Fatah, Hamas, and Iran.
Begin MENL Excerpt
MIDDLE EAST NEWS LETTER
October 11, 2006
TEL AVIV [MENL] — For the first time in more than a decade, Israel’s military has raised the prospect of a Middle East war.
Military sources said the Intelligence Corps has warned of the possibility of war in 2007. The sources said the corps, in its annual intelligence assessment, has notified the General Staff that Syria represented the greatest danger of war over the next year.
“The main message was that the chance of war with Syria in 2007 was greater than during 2006,” a source said. “This does not mean that it will happen. It means that there is a reasonable change of it taking place.”
The annual assessment relayed to the General Staff was expected to be revised over the next few months. The Cabinet would receive the annual assessment toward the end of 2006.
End MENL Excerpt
Begin Arutz Sheba WND Excerpt
Fatah, Hamas Preparing for War with Israel
By Hillel Fendel
World Net Daily
Hamas has smuggled up to 1,300 tons of weapons from Egypt into Gaza and is preparing for the option of launching a large-scale conflict with Israel. So states a Fatah report quoted by WorldNetDaily.
The weapons, WND reports, include between several hundred and 1,300 tons of advanced rockets; anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles; rocket propelled grenades; raw explosives; rifles; ammunition; and other heavy weaponry.
Israel has long complained that the arrangements at the Egypt-Gaza border crossing are not satisfactory, and that the European monitors are ineffectual in stopping the smuggling.
Then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon agreed to the deal last November, after U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice arrived in the region and gave her stamp of approval.
WND’s Aaron Klein quotes Abu Ahmed, leader of the northern Gaza chapter of the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades terror group, as saying the terrorists are working towards, and succeeding in, turning Gaza into a Hizbullah-like threat against Israel.
“We learned from Hizbullah’s victory that Israel can be defeated if we know how to hit them and if we are well prepared,” Abu Ahmed said. We are importing rockets and the knowledge to launch them and we are also making many plans for battle.”
WND also quotes another terrorist leader – Abu Abdullah, reported to be a top member of the Izaddin Al-Kassam Brigades of Hamas – detailing the preparations for war against Israel.
“In the last 15 months,”Abu Adullah said,”though the fighters of Hamas kept the ceasefire, we did not stop making important advancements and professional training on the military level. In the future, after Hamas is obliged to stop the ceasefire, the world shall see our new military capabilities.” He said that Hamas and Hizbullah, which has cells in Sinai, are cooperating in importing rockets and guerilla training.
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