Will recent articles on attacking Iran’s nuke sites actually Occur
?
Or is All This a Blind Man’s Bluff from the West to Slow Down Iran
?
Will Israel wait till bomb is finished – then go after bomb and Site
s?
November 5, 2011
http://www.trikbulationperiod.com/
The US, French, British, and Israeli Intelligence penetration into Iran I believe to be sufficient to know when to bluff and when to strike
I believe this saber rattling is a bluff to cause Iran
to halt its nuke program, but I am not certain of it. However, if and when Iran finally gets a bomb, I believe Israel will initially go primarily after the bomb itself, and secondarily after all of its major nuclear sites, with a variety of high-tech convention smart bombs.
A Change in leadership in Saudi Arabia and ongoing changes in many Middle East nations has created a platform of instability from Algeria to Pakistan. I believe this pattern is likely to explode into an attack on Israel at some point in time between 2013 and 2015.
Begin Two Excerpts from Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs/Daily Alert and One from DEBKAfile
Begin Excerpt 1 from YNet News
IDF Ready to Strike Iran
Ron Ben-Yishai
(Ynet News)
The fact that Israel is holding training sessions seen as practical preparations for striking Iran’s nuclear sites is no secret. Israel will not tolerate nuclear arms in Iranian hands. No less importantly, the international community and the Iranians fully realize that Israel is seriously considering such a strike in order to curb or at least delay the Iranian race to the bomb, assuming there is no non-military option to secure this aim.
However, this is contingent upon absolute certainty that Iran has already started to produce the bomb and that all other ways to prevent Tehran from doing so have been exhausted.
In such a case, Israel would have no choice but to thwart the existential threat we face as a result of nuclear arms in Iranian hands, even at the price of the casualties and damage sustained by Israel as a result of Iran’s response and that of its allies. However, this scenario is still relatively far off.
U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta came to Israel a few weeks ago and said that decisions on Iran must be taken in coordination between Jerusalem and Washington. “Nobody would believe that you operated without coordinating it with the U.S., and hence, as we too would sustain damages, we demand at least an advance warning,” said a senior American official who recently visited Israel.
The lively public debate on the issue grants more credibility to the Israeli strike threat. It signals to Washington, Moscow and Beijing: either you stop the Iranian race to the bomb or we shall be forced to act, and then all of us shall pay a heavy price.
Begin Excerpt 2 from Canada National Post
The Latest War Scare Over Iran
Barry Rubin
Israel understandably has plans for a possible attack against Iran
if needed and its military trains for that contingency. Israel leaks this fact to unnerve Iran and give Western countries incentives to increase sanctions and work harder to block Tehran from getting nuclear weapons
. Recent reports – including the new one from the International Atomic Energy Agency – don’t add anything to what Israel already knows.
Iran has shown itself to be aggressive and dangerous but not insane. Iran is nowhere near having a strong enough nuclear strike force to let it attack Israel without receiving a devastating Israeli retaliation. (National Post-Canada)
A GAME OF BLIND MAN’S BLUFF IN THE MIDDLE EAST!
Begin Excerpt from DEBKAfile Special Report
A military war of nerves against Iran: The US leads, Israel and UK go along
DEBKAfile Special Report
November 2, 2011, 10:46 PM (GMT+02:00)
The sudden rush of military news Wednesday, Nov. 2, is part of an orchestrated Western performance to convince Tehran that the US, Britain and Israel are on the verge of a military operation against its nuclear installations.
Directed from Washington, it is meant to warn Iran that the play could become a reality show if it refuses to give up the drive for a nuclear weapon. President Barack Obama may then decide to strike Revolutionary Guards Corps targets, the bulwark of the Islamic regime, and its strategic infrastructure, thereby knocking over the key props holding up the regime of the ayatollahs.
Contributing to the menacing climate hanging over Iran were four headline events involving Israel – all on the same Wednesday: Israel conducted a successful test launch of a new intercontinental ballistic missile, Jericho 3, which foreign sources report is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead 7,000 kilometers.
After that, the IDF released photographs of Israeli Air Force squadron leaders reporting from Italian air base runways to the media on joint exercises they had conducted in long-range maneuvers with the Italian air force “and other NATO nations,” to familiarize the IAF with NATO military tactics.
The inference was clear: The Israeli Air Force was strengthening its cooperation with Western allies in preparation for a NATO assault on Iran. The IAF also got a chance to study the lessons Western alliance air force tacticians had drawn from the eight-month Libyan operation which ended on Oct. 31.
Next, the IDF’s Home Command announced a large-scale anti-missile exercise in central Israel starting Thursday morning, Nov. 3.
Finally, Defense Minister Ehud Barak left for an unscheduled trip to London shortly after a secret visit to Israel by the British chief of staff General Sir David Richards earlier this week as guest of Israel’s top soldier Lt.
Gen. Benny Gantz.
If the British general was in Israel only this week, why was Barak is such a hurry to visit London
?
The answer came from the British media, which reported as soon as he arrived that the Ministry of Defense in London had accelerated and upgraded its contingency planning for participation in a US-led assault on Iran. They carried an account of plans for deploying large naval units including submarines to the Persian Gulf.
The UK was reported to have asked Washington for permission to station its fighter-bombers on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia for launching bombing sorties against Iran.
This whirlwind of military activity was said to have been prompted by the approaching publication of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Iran report next Tuesday, Nov. 8 and the conclusion the nuclear watchdog had reached: Inside 12 months, Iran will have tucked all its nuclear and ballistic missile facilities away in deep underground tunnels where they will be invulnerable to attack.
A potential US-British strike to pre-empt this move would also be timed for the run-up to America’s next presidential election in November 2012.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that if the US, Britain and other NATO nations, such as France, Italy and Germany, participate in the attack, Israel will not. Its army, air force and navy will defend the home front, be available to engage Iran’s allies to prevent them from striking the assault forces from the rear, and act as a strategic reserve. The danger would come from Syria, the Lebanese Hizballah, and the Palestinian Hamas and Jihad Islami in the Gaza Strip.
These contingency plans are subject to changes, especially if President Obama and other NATO allies decide after all against attacking Iran in the coming year. The hyperactivity will then subside and Israel will be thrown back on the dilemma of having to decide whether or not to conduct a lone military operation against Iran.
There is not much time for contemplation. Syria and Hizballah are reported by DEBKAfile’s military sources to be in the throes of separate preparations for attacking Israel if their respective grips on power are shaken. For now, those sources rate the chances of Israel facing a military clash with Syria and/or Hizballah much higher than a NATO-Israeli showdown being mounted against Iran.
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