Military Intelligence Sees Possibility of Eventual Syrian Attack with Weaponry replenished in Lebanon and Gaza by Land, Sea, and Air!

Military Intelligence Sees Possibility of Eventual Syrian Attack with Weaponry Replenished in Lebanon and Gaza by Land, Sea, and Air!

September 29, 2006
For 33 years Israeli Intelligence has doubted the possibility Syria would ever attack Israel again, after being soundly defeated in 1948, 1967, and 1973. However, the rise of Iran as its partner and the recent Israeli conflict with Lebanon, is giving rise to the possibility of a future attack by Syria against Israel. My guesstimate is that an attack

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is likely to occur at some point in time between 2008 and 2012.

Begin Arutz Sheva Article

Arutz Sheva – Israel National News

Military Intelligence: Syrian Front Now Cause for Concern

Thursday, September 28, 2006 / 6 Tishrei 5767

Changing its long-time assessment regarding the Syrian threat, military intelligence now believes Damascus might launch an attack or a military action against Israel.

For the first time in many years, IDF intelligence officials are signaling concern regarding the northern border with Syria, indicating President Bashar al-Assad’s administration is contemplating a military offensive against Israel. Officials are careful to point out that at present such a p

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ossibility is only in the dialogue stage, explaining Syria has not taken any operational steps towards a military action, but that in many cases such thoughts do ultimately express themselves in actions.

Eisenkott Appointed as IDF Northern Commander

On Wednesday, Defense Minister Amir Peretz gave his approval for IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz’s appointment for the new northern commander, Major-General Gadi Eisenkott, presently the IDF’s Chief of Operations. The other serious contender for the post was IDF Southern Command Chief Major-General Yoav Gallant. Gallant, some explain was not a real contender since Peretz realized that while he is capable enough for the position, he has only been serving as Southern Commander for less than a year and a transfer on two fronts would cause too much havoc in the IDF. This with the knowledge that at the end of the year, Central Commander Major-General Yair Naveh will also be resigning from his post.

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Eisenkott, 46, has been serving in the IDF for 27 years. He spent most of his years in the Golani Brigade. He served as military secretary to Prime Minister/Defense Minister Ehud Barak. He is viewed as a respected member of the General Staff.

Some critics oppose the appointment, explaining that Eisenkott is one of a number of senior officers who will be questioned and debriefed by the Winograd Commission investigating the war in Lebanon. This they explain may lead to further embarrassment following his new appointment.

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Others explain that Eisenkott was a model of stability and professionalism during the war, an “anchor” on the General Staff who continued acting in a professional fashion despite the chaos that prevailed in senior military circles. Officials in the Northern Command expressed satisfaction over the appointment.

Knesset Speaker Calls for Peace Talks With Syria

While army intelligence is concerned over the growing threat from Damascus, Knesset Speaker (Labor) Dalia Itzik is calling “not to miss the opportunity” to enter into dialogue with Syria, seeking to avert a military conflict.

Itzik insists that Assad has repeatedly made peace overtures, exhibiting a willingness to enter into negotiations with Israel, and that if Jerusalem turns her back on such statements, perhaps a last opportunity towards dialogue will be lost forever.

Itzik continues to encourage senior government ministers to take Assad’s statements seriously and begin opening diplomatic channels that could lead to a peace agreement, stating such an accomplishment could have a widespread political impact. Itzik will appear in an exclusive extended Yom Kippur interview on her call for negotiations with Syria in the daily Ma’ariv.

Peres: The Syrian Administration Opposes Peace

Vice Premier Shimon Peres, who released a statement in London earlier this week, stated that Bashar al-Assad is providing refuge for a wanted terrorist, referring to Hamas politburo leader Khaled Meshal. It is Meshal who is preventing the release of captive soldier Gilad Shalit, Peres went on to explain, adding that even the PA (Palestinian Authority) Hamas-led administration wishes to release Shalit at this point.

“If his father Hafez [al-Assad] would only have come to Camp David with Sadat, the Golan Heights would have already been in his hands for years. They are opponents to peace,” stated Peres.

Army Intelligence Not Taking Peace Overtures Seriously

Military intelligence during the past year has discarded statements calling for peace by Assad. Both governmental and intelligence communities during the previous Sharon administration were in agreement, that calls for peace by the Syrian leader have not been sincere, and were nothing more that Syria’s ploy towards compelling Israel to retreat from the Golan Heights, which was liberated in the June 1967 Six Day War.

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Itzik’s Statements UndermineAmerican Policy

Analysts point out that Knesset Speaker Dalia Itzik’s calls to open a dialogue with Damascus openly undermine American policy. Her repeated statements come at a time when the United States is working to enlist support for calls to impose sanctions on Syria, seeking to isolate Damascus from the world community.

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Secretary of State Rice has been signaling Jerusalem to refrain from such open statements at this time while the State Department is seeking to enlist allies to pressure Assad into backing down.

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America accuses Syria of “supporting terror,” as does Israel and analysts explain that these remarks by the Knesset Speaker are most untimely and unwanted at this time, especially with the realization that Syria’s willingness to permit Hizbullah weapons to reach southern Lebanon continues to infuse life into the terror organization.

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End Arutz Sheva Article

Begin DEBKAfile Article

Shin Bet chief accuses Egypt of closing its eyes to Palestinian arms smuggling to Gaza. But DEBKAfile reports its volume is dwarfed by Hizballah’s illegal imports

September 27, 2006, 9:36 PM (GMT+02:00)

Diskin informed the cabinet Wednesday, Sept 27, that since Israel pulled out of the Gaza Strip, 19 tons of explosives have passed through Sinai to the Gaza Strip.

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“The Egyptians know who the smugglers are – we gave them intelligence – but they are doing nothing,” he said.

DEBKAfile’s military sources disclose that while Egypt helps the Palestinians move the tools of war into Gaza, the Syrians have established large arms dumps for the fresh war materiel incoming from Iran and Syria itself on the Syrian side of the Lebanese border.

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It can be moved over to any part of Lebanon in an instant.

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This device enables Damascus to keep Hizballah re-supplied while pretending to uphold the arms embargo ordered in Security Council resolution 1701.

Our sources reveal 25 of these large weapons stores have been located in Syrian army camps, air bases and security installations close to the Lebanese border. They contain miscellaneous missiles, including the latest models of surface-to-air and anti-tank rockets, all sorted and marked by type of weapon and the Hizballah units for which they are destined.

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Drawing on the lessons of the Lebanon war, Iranian Revolutionary Guards supply and engineering corps have dropped the use of arms trucks which drew Israeli air attacks and have attached expert “smuggling squads” to each Hizballah unit.

Syria is also topping up Hizballah’s war losses of ammunition and shells as well s mortars, machine guns, grenades, anti-tank missiles, explosives and automatic rifles.

The weapons supply situation for the Palestinians in the south and Hizballah in north means that both are in equipped with enough war materiel to open simultaneous fronts against Israel from both ends of the country.

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Senior Israeli officers say that the government in Jerusalem and the military high command have been sitting on their hands since the August 14 ceasefire instead of dealing with the dual war threat.

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The Shin Bet director is not alone in sounding a warning note; a past Navy commander and Shin Bet chief, the Labor MK Ami Ayalon, bluntly contradicted his own party leader, defense minister Amir Peretz, at a briefing to the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee Tuesday, Sept 26.

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He reported according from his naval intelligence sources that UNIFIL’s naval control of Lebanon’s sea lanes is totally ineffective and Hizballah’s weapons

End DEBKAfile Report

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