Some say War in Months, Others say it is at Least Two years Away!
August 27, 2006
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
Military Intelligence in Israel is divided as to when war
is likely, some saying it will occur in months, while others say it is AT LEAST Two years away. I go with the latter opinion, believing the most likely time for a war to begin in Israel to be at some point in time between 2008 and 2012.
Both opinions are expressed in the fourth paragraph of the article from the Jerusalem Post, which follows.
Begin Jerusalem Post Article
Peretz calls for Anti-Missile System
Yaakov Katz, THE JERUSALEM POST
August 24, 2006
After Hizbullah fired close to 4,000 rockets and missiles at northern Israel over the past month, Defense Minister Amir Peretz ordered the defense establishment on Thursday to begin developing an anti-missile defense system.
“This is the key to enable the IDF to face its challenges on all of the different fronts,” Peretz told defense officials during a security assessment meeting on Thursday at the ministry in Tel Aviv.
Peretz also ordered IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz to ensure that emergency warehouses were refilled with suitable and adequate equipment and that reservists began to receive proper training to prepare them for the next war.
Military Intelligence was said to be split on the question of when Israel’s next war against Hizbullah will erupt, with some officials claiming that it is a matter of months and others predicting that it would not start for at least two years.
Israel has in the past invested in an anti-rocket defense system that would also be effective against the Kassam rockets fired by Palestinian terror groups in the Gaza Strip. One such project was the Nautilus – known today as the Skyguard – which was developed in the US and was successful in intercepting and destroying incoming short-range rockets.
Israel, however, ditched the project claiming that the prototype did not suit Israel’s needs since it was not mobile due to its large size. Officials also have said that the Nautilus was too expensive and that its purchase did not make sense economically.
End Jerusalem Post Article
Israel was still hopeful of perhaps attaining its goal of getting Hizbollah disarmed when the ceasefire began, but by August 21 it was becoming apparent that such a goal would never be reached, as the DEBKAfile, which follows, attests. By August 24 Israel had given up ever seeing the Hizbollah disarmed, but was establishing a plan to at least hamper the rate of weapon flow from Iran via Syria and Turkey into Lebanon, as indicated by the Jerusalem Post Article, which follows the DEBKAfile Report.
I do not believe Hizbollah will be satisfactorily equipped with what Iran believes is sufficient to successfully launch a Jihad against Israel prior to 2008. However, I do guesstimate that it will meet that requirement at some point in time between 2008 and 2012. The following article from the DEBKAfile Report indicates that, at the rate weapons are currently flowing into Hizbollah, the necessary arsenal for a Jihad should reach the level necessary for a successful Jihad by the ten toes of Daniel 2 during the 2008 to 2012 timeframe.
Begin DEBKAfile Article
DEBKAfile discloses: Hizballah is smuggling hundreds of rockets and dozens of launchers into S. Lebanon without interference
August 21, 2006, 9:21 PM (GMT+02:00)
Our military sources report that Hizballah is also working on the rehabilitation of its short-range rocket “Nasser” Brigade – all under cover of the stream of returning south Lebanese refugees.
Weapons deliveries from Syria to Lebanon are arriving at an accelerated pace in the last 24 hours, mostly through the northern Beqaa Valley. They are then distributed across Lebanon including the south. Israel is no longer impeding the traffic although it has been given an all-clear from Washington.
Monday, Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert praised his Lebanese counterpart Fouad Siniora for his courage and predicted if things carry on this way, it may soon be possible to discuss formalizing relations.
However,
DEBKAfile discloses that, on the quiet, Siniora has instructed his troops to avoid friction with Hizballah and on no account impound its weapons or obstruct its efforts to regroup. Hassan Nasrallah has reciprocated with orders to his men not to resist if Lebanese soldiers confiscate their weapons because they will be restored through the secret back-door channel conducted by the Lebanese PM.
DEBKAfile’s sources add: Siniora has ignored Israel’s complaint through Washington about the arms supplies transiting N. Beqaa. He has made no request to UNIFIL to en force
the UN arms embargo. The situation on the Syrian-Lebanese border is beginning to replicate the open house for arms smuggling that reigned on the Egyptian-Gaza after Israel’s pull-back from Gaza in October 2005. Then too, Israel made effort to hinder the massive influx of terrorist weapons. The Lebanese army’s deployment and patrols are described by Israeli military sources in Lebanon as futile; Hizballah tells them which roads and villages they may enter, and which they may not.
UNIFIL’s patrols are likewise a charade. The international force has confined itself to clearing mines; it is not spending any time on enforcing Security Council resolution 1701. Even then, the mine-clearing teams make sure of permission from Hizballah and the Lebanese army before they venture on territories under their control. The mood in Washington over the prospect of getting an effective multinational force deployed in S. Lebanon is downbeat compared with the optimism radiated by Israel’s prime minister, defense minister and chief of staff. Not a single government is willing to contribute a contingent without a clear prescription of permitted dos and don’ts, including the foreign troops’ freedom to defend themselves. UNIFIL has received general authorization to fire in self-defense but it is heavily qualified and still not approved by the Lebanese government.
End DEBKAfile Report
Israel has given up on disarming Hizbollah, as the following article from the Jerusalem Post indicates. However, it is mak ing a concerted effort to slow down the flow of new weapons to replenish the ones used
in the 34 day conflict, which is one of the reasons that makes me believe late 2008 is the earliest another war could break out on the northern border of Israel.
Begin Jerusalem Post Article
Israel gives up on disarming Hizbullah
Herb Keinon, THE JERUSALEM POST
August 24, 2006
Israel has essentially given up hope of Hizbullah being disarmed, and instead is now concentrating on ensuring that an arms embargo called for in UN Security Council resolution 1701 be implemented, The Jerusalem Post has learned.
Furthermore, senior Israeli officials have made it clear in recent days during talks with foreign governments that Israel realizes a Hizbullah presence south of the Litani River is unavoidable, if for no other reason than because the organization is so well rooted there that the only way to get rid of
Hizbullah would be to evacuate the entire region.
What Israel does expect, however, is that the Lebanese Army and the international force that will deploy there ensure that Hizbullah doesn’t have offensive weaponry to attack Israel, and that if they do try
to attack, there will be someone there to stop them.
The impression Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has left in recent days on her European counterparts during meetings both in Israel and in Europe is that Israel recognizes it is unrealistic for anyone to take away Hizbullah’s weapons, and that what is most important at this time is to ensure that there is an effective embargo on any new weapons to Hizbullah.
If the embargo is not effective, Israel has made clear, it will have to act to ensure that it is.
Israel is less concerned about grenades and rifles remaining in Hizbullah’s hands, and more about weaponry that gives it offensive capabilities.
Both Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Livni have told various world leaders over the last few days that Israel would not lift its air and sea blockade of Lebanon until troops of the new multinational force were on the ground at crossing points in Lebanon to ensure that Iran and Syria do not resupply Hizbullah.
The foreign ministers of the 25 EU countries are to meet on Friday in Brussels to discuss the composition of the force, and its rules of engagement.
The prospect of having to disarm Hizbullah, along with the fear of unclear rules of disengagement, have been largely responsible for European countries’ reluctance to send large contingencies to the force.
France’s decision Thursday night to send a 2,000-strong contingent to the force, however, is now expected to bring in its wake a greater readiness by other European countries to take part.
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