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July 19, 2006
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
The internet sources, from which I receive tons of assorted reports, are prone to wild speculation when events like the one now occurring in Israel pop up. It brings back memories of when I was in the NSA and we were flooded with reports that had different ratings of percentage reliability, at times even contradicting one another.
Trying to know which ones to throw out of the mix is like reading after those who have a habitual pattern of interpreting some Scriptures in context, and others out of context. I have thrown out a bunch over the last eight days.
I can see why some are worried this is the beginning of World War III, but it is not yet time. What bothers me is that sometimes I throw out a good report!
The military incursion into southern Lebanon has reached new heights of activity in the last 12 hours. Israel is determined to leave Hizbollah like a flat tire that will be difficult to patch once she leaves the terrorist vehicle on the side of the road and heads back home.
The heightened activity will end in Israel before too much longer, and it will have left Hizbollah and Hamas in shock. They will shout, shoot their weapons in the air, give their usual victory chants and ridiculous rhetoric, but down deep in their black hearts, they will have suddenly discovered that their endless acts of terrorist brutality and bloodshed have not weakened Israel, but strengthened its resolve to live in the land against all odds. And, after all is said and done, it is likely to result in the leveling of the terrorist activity in Israel to a flat plateau that will seem to be something Israel can live with for awhile. I expect Iran to be even more vocal with all sorts of threats because Israel has stepped on its little toe in Lebanon, which will take several years to heal.
Israel is currently saying it needs two to four weeks to end its operation against Hizbollah and, at the moment, international pressure from the real world powers that matter, has not been heavy, but it definitely will increase with time. I do think it will prob ably end in less th
an a month.
The articles from DEBKAfile, the Jerusalem Post and Haaretz, which follow, give an accurate picture of the latest developments on the war itself, and the diplomatic movements under way to find agreement on how to end it.
The UN, US, Europe, Russia, and China are likely to come up with a plan for southern Lebanon that will temporarily put a restriction zone in place in order for Lebanon to supposedly gain control, and Hizbollah will have been weakened. And, as in “The Night before Christmas,” they will “all settle down for a long winter’s nap,” with an occasional rocket, of course. And, by the time their long winter’s nap is over in a few years, they will find more, and better equipped, enemies north of them than they found this time, along with a stronger union of more fanatical elements in all the Arab nations, much better able to respond to the next time Israel tries to clean up Lebanon.
Israel will pull out of the Gaza Strip and, after assurance from a friend or two, will leave any part of Lebanon they have entered in this current war. It will be interesting to see how they recreate a buffer zone across southern Lebanon, and the makeup of the force that maintains it.
Begin DEBKAfile Report
DEBKAfile Exclusive: Israel’s ground operations in Lebanon and strikes against Syria are clandestine and go well beyond official statements
July 19, 2006, 2:15 PM (GMT+02:00)
Israeli spokesmen speak only of small ground crossings into the south and air strikes against several war material trucks crossing in from Syria. However, according to DEBKAfile’s military sources, those ground incursions extend to central and eastern Lebanon as well as the south, targeting Hizballah strongholds and launching sites, and include several cross-border raids into Syria in pursuit of fleeing Hizballah terrorists and for the interception of incoming groups. Weapons convoys destined for Hizballah are also being struck on the Syrian side of the border. To conceal the extent of their losses, Hizballah has instructed its people not to hold burials.
End DEBKAfile Article
Begin Excerpt from Jerusalem Post Article
Olmert: Iran’s Diversion Plan Worked!
Associated Press and JPost Staff, THE JERUSALEM POST
July 18, 2006
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert went within range of Hizbullah rockets Tuesday night, visiting the northern town of Haifa for talks with mayors and local authority heads.
He said that the Hizbullah’s attacks on Israel’s northern border were designed to divert the world’s attention from Iran during the G8 meeting in St. Petersburg; according to Olmert, the plan worked.
Cabinet Secretary Israel Maimon told Channel 2 television that Olmert wanted to meet face-to-face with officials from the northern towns and cities that have been pounded for the past week by rockets fired by Hizbullah from Lebanon.
Eight people were killed by rocket fire in Haifa Sunday and the city took several more hits Tuesday, with at least three people injured and a three-story building destroyed.
No rockets fell during Olmert’s visit, which took place without prior publicity.
“It was important for him to get to the north,” Maimon said. “To be in the north, together with the northern residents, to be with the local authority heads, to hear their problems.”
End Excerpt from Jerusalem Post Article
Begin Haaretz Article
UN working on new deal between Israel and Lebanon
By Aluf Benn July 19, 2006
The United Nations is working toward a new diplomatic arrangement between Israel and Lebanon that will be based on implementation of Security Council Resolution 1559, calling for the disarmament of Hezbollah, the restoration of Lebanese sovereignty, and the deployment of the Lebanese army to southern Lebanon.
The arrangement will be based on principles concluded at the G8 summit in St. Petersburg earlier this week, which include the unconditional return of the abducted Israeli soldiers, cessation of rocket attacks against Israel, an end to the Israeli assault on Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, and the release of Hamas officials arrested by Israel following the raid on Kerem Shalom in late June.
The UN delegation visiting Jerusalem yesterday told senior Israeli officials there is no value in a cease-fire without a broad diplomatic agreement. If Lebanon refuses direct talks with Israel, the arrangement will be negotiated through mediators or anchored in a new Security Council Resolution. The UN diplomats assessed that achieving an agreement would take weeks, perhaps even months.
The visiting UN diplomats told Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni that their aim is to bring a real change to the strategic reality on the ground.
“If we return to the situation that existed before the current confrontation, it will only be a matter of time before the fighting is resumed,” they said.
The UN officials stressed that it is import ant to settle the Shaba Farms issue, which Hezbollah has used as
an excuse for attacks against Israel. They also said it would be necessary to restructure or reorganize the UN force in southern Lebanon, UNIFIL, which is ineffective.
Special adviser to Secretary General Kofi Annan, Vijay Nambiar, former special representative to the region on behalf of the UN, Terje Roed-Larsen, and special coordinator for the Middle East peace process, Alvaro De Soto, attended yesterday’s meeting with Livni.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert joined the meeting, as a sign of courtesy to the UN diplomats, after he had originally refused to meet the delegation.
Olmert told the diplomats that Israel “will continue fighting Hezbollah, and will carry on striking the organization’s targets until its abducted soldiers are returned, and until the security of Israeli citizens is guaranteed.”
The prime minister also expressed serious doubts regarding the idea of a multinational force and its deployment in southern Lebanon.
“It’s a good headline, but our experience shows that there is nothing behind such proposals,” he said. “Such a force exists in Lebanon today, and we have seen what they have done. I want to be careful on this issue, and I think it is too early to discuss this matter.”
During the meeting, Israeli officials reiterated there would be no agreement to exchange the abducted soldiers for prisoners held in Israel, and said that the prisoner exchange with Hezbollah in January 2004 had been a mistake for which Israel paid dearly.
Livni told the delegation that Israel would not agree to a return to the status quo in Lebanon before the fighting began, and raised four important issues:
1. The proposed arrangement must include a mechanism that will prevent the rearmament of Hezbollah at the end of the confrontation.
2. The deal must include all Lebanese territory, not only the south, because it is still possible to launch long-range missiles against Israel.
3. Israel has a clear interest in the assertion of sovereignty by the Lebanese government over the entire country.
4. UNIFIL is neither effective nor relevant in its current structure.
The main disagreement between the UN and Israel at this stage revolves around the order of the steps that need to be taken. Israel demands a linear motion that will begin with the return of the abducted soldiers and move on to a cease-fire.
The UN is proposing a collective package in which all steps will be carried out at once.
Israel somewhat softened its stance on the deployment of an international force in Lebanon after a cease-fire, and Livni said that while it is preferable to deploy the Lebanese army in the South, “if there is a problem of effectiveness, we will consider additional proposals.”
Livni added that an effective force was necessary, and stressed that any deal would have to safeguard Israel’s right to respond if attacked.
The UN diplomats left Jerusalem for the Gaza Strip after the meeting for talks there, but their attention was clearly focused on the immediate problem in Lebanon.
End Haaretz Article
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