Years of Unfruitful Negotiations with Iran Equals Zero!
January 13, 2006
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
According to DEBKAfile exclusive Ir ani
an sources, “Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa warned the Gulf oil emirates in what was described as exceptionally aggressive terms to beware of Iran’s great strength, and not to place its trust in the American navy.”
The DEBKAfile Report said that Mostafa “threatened major action against any party assaulting Gulf security. The Report went on to say that Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani declared “Iran’s absolute resolve to continue its nuclear development,” adding “we shall reach our desired goal!” He concluded by saying, “We are determined to ignore all prohibitions.
Iran will not tolerate colonial policies practiced by any nation or institution in the world.”
The presence of Allied Forces along Iran’s western border is a very real burr under Iran’s saddle. Instituting sanctions against Iran, after years of fruitless, deliberate, delaying negotiation tactics employed by Iran against the West, will not stop Iran.
Iran is hell-bent on developing its own atomic warhead to mount on its Shihab-3 and Shihab-4 missiles.
As long as American troops are in Iraq there is no possibility of an Islamic holy Jihad being launched against Israel.
But, by the same token, due to worldwide international reaction, America is not going to launch any precision air strikes against Iran to knock out its nuclear facilities.
However, since the European Union is starting to sweat a Shihab series missile reaching their cities, they would not violently react to an Israeli air strike against Iran’ s nuclear facilitie
s. If U.N. sanctions do not stop Iran’s insane race to produce a nuclear warhead, I can envision Israel being able to launch a behind-the-scenes approved strike against Iran facilities following the March elections, perhaps during the summer or fall months, but I doubt that it will.
Now, back to reality, I do not expect Russia or China to allow effective sanctions
involving oil to be put on Iran because of the economic loss they would suffer in doing so. So I look for a veto in the NATO Security Council to stop any effective sanctions.
And, if I had to go one way or the other, while I can envision an air strike, I seriously doubt we will see one. As I have stated in several pervious updates, I do expect Iran to get a nuclear warhead for its Shihab missile series, but I do not believe they would dare to launch it against Israel or Europe.
They are led by men who are religious fanatics, but they are not fools.
Iranian leaders are fully aware that a launch against Israel or Europe would be the end of Iran as a country – all that would remain would be a nuclear hole in the ground.
I certainly believe all the Western powers are aware of this fact, and
therefore are not ne
arly as concerned as if they thought Iran might be crazy enough to carry out such a launch. However, in this world of illogical acts and religious fanaticism, nothing would surprise me. I suspect that America and the European Union’s main concern is the creation of portable nuclear weapons from Iran being supplied to the terrorist groups under Osama bin Laden, which would be smuggled into Western power territories for local terrorist use.
I do believe that American troop withdrawals will be accelerated later this year, primarily by not sending replacements for those returning home by normal rotation, but there will still be troops there in sufficient number to stop Iran from launching a Jihad against Israel until possibly late 2007 at the earliest, and 2012 at the latest.