Welcome to the Vicious Cycle
Beginning early in this Century
The Dollar and Oil Action in 2004!
Economy has the old sinking Feeling
Allies vs.
Germany – Sink the Bismark
Islam vs. America – Sink the U.S. Dollar
Global Warming Iceberg Sank the Titanic
Money we spend on Hoax will sink all Hope
As the buying power of the Dollar Diminishes
We do carry silver dollars in pockets with Holes
June 28, 2008
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
Haggai 1:5,6 – Now therefore thus saith the Lord of hosts; Consider your ways.
[6] Ye have sown much, and bring in little; ye eat, but ye have not enough; ye drink, but ye are not filled with drink; ye clothe you, but there is none warm; and he that earneth wages earneth wages to put it into a bag with holes.
Haggai 2:20-22 – And again the word of the Lord came unto Haggai in the four and twentieth day of the month, saying, [21] Speak to Zerubbabel, governor of Judah, saying, I will shake the heavens and the earth; [22] And I will overthrow the throne of kingdoms, and I will destroy the strength of the kingdoms of the heathen; and I will overthrow the chariots, and those that ride in them; and the horses and their riders shall come down, every one by the sword of his brother.
Zechariah 14:13 – And it shall come to pass in that day, that a great tumult from the Lord shall be among them; and they shall lay hold every one on the hand of his neighbour, and his hand shall rise up against the hand of his neighbour.
Zechariah 14:16 – And it shall come to pass, that every one that is left of all the nations which came against Jerusalem shall even go up from year to year to worship the King, the Lord of hosts, and to keep the feast of tabernacles.
Daniel 2:44 – And in the days of these kings shall the God of heaven set up a kingdom, which shall never be destroyed: and the kingdom shall not be left to other people, but it shall break in pieces and consume all these kingdoms, and it shall stand for ever.
Begin Arutz Sheva Excerpt
Muslim Terrorists May Be Trying To Sink the Dollar
June 28, 2008 – 01:00 (Israeli Time Zone)
by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
(IsraelNN.com) Mujahideen Muslim terrorists may be behind the sinking American dollar as part of a campaign to cripple the American economy, the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) reported. The media watch group, which specializes in tracking Arabic language websites, said that postings on websites the past two years reflect a move toward waging an economic war against the United States.
Mujahideen terrorist groups that operate in Afghanistan, Pakistan and other countries “have come to the conclusion that it is financial, rather than military, losses that will prompt the U.S. to change its policies in the Middle East and elsewhere,” according to MEMRI.
An article recently posted in Sada Al-Jihad (Echo of Jihad) magazine and posted on several Muslim websites, discusses the September 11, 2001 attacks on the U.S. as having influenced the decline in the dollar. It also cited the cost of the war in Iraq and Afghanistan as draining the American economy.
Another recent posting stated, “The dollar can expect two additional blows that will break its back… [namely] the announcement of the return of the [religious rule of the] Caliphate…” and the reinstatement of the gold standard in international monetary trade. It urged Mujahideen “to get rid of American dollars” before an “imminent” terrorist attack that “will put an end to the so-called United States of America and destroy its economy completely.”%ad%
MEMRI concluded, “Given that it is highly atypical for Al-Qaeda to give prior warning of its attacks, the message is probably an attempt to pressure Muslims to sell dollars, in order to generate pessimism in the dollar market and thus accelerate the drop in its value.”
Begin 2004 Excerpt from Jubak’s Journal
Jubak’s Journal
Vicious cycle: Rising oil prices, falling dollar
December 10, 2004
The phenomenon is likely to continue for a while.
By Jim Jubak
This year’s dramatic increase in oil prices and the decline in the dollar are’nt two unfolding crises for the U.S. economy but two sides of a single blockbuster problem.
And unless you understand the vicious cycle of higher oil prices leading to higher trade deficits leading to a weaker dollar leading to higher oil prices, you wont see the changes coming in your everyday life until they hit you like a truck doing 60.
Let me try to explain the cycle and its consequences for the everyday economy where we live our lives.
Lets start with higher oil prices. In the beginning, they were a result of several factors:
Higher demand for oil from the fast-growing economies of China and India.
Supply disruptions in Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela, Russia and the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Fear that the global oil industry was finding less and less new oil.
A terrorism/war premium.
Buying by traders speculating that oil prices would rise.
Under the pressure of all those circumstances, the price of a barrel of oil in the U.S. climbed to a high near $55 a barrel this year.
Thats a huge increase, considering that the average benchmark price of a barrel was just $21.84 in 2001, and it pushed the cost of U.S. oil and gas imports higher and higher. In October, the Labor Department reported, the $12.3 billion cost of petroleum imports was up a huge 68% from October 2003.
Pricier oil equals higher trade deficits
Because we import so much of the oil we use, the huge jump in petroleum prices has added to the growing U.S. trade deficit in goods and services with the rest of the world. That deficit — the difference between the cost of what we import and what we export –climbed to $51.6 billion in September 2004. Contrast that with the $29.6 billion monthly U.S. trade deficit in January 2002, before the price of oil spiked.
That deficit cant be blamed wholly on the rising price of oil or on U.S. oil imports in general, but the petroleum-related part of the deficit is now so large that it just about guarantees ris
ing oil prices in the future. And thats because oil is priced in U.S. dollars, and the fall of the value of the dollar has led to a decline in the value of the dollars that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries collects for its oil.
Think about being the executive of a Saudi oil company that wants to buy equipment from Frances Schlumberger Limited (SLB, news, msgs). Thanks to the fall in the dollar against the euro, that equipment costs 10% more in dollars on Dec. 8, 2004, than it did a year earlier. And if you go back further to the dollars high against the euro in 2002,
that oil equipment priced in euros now costs 57% more than it did in 2002.
(The euro zone countries represent the biggest source of OPEC imports, so the exchange rate between U.S. dollars and euros is critical to OPEC finances.)
No wonder OPEC is so intent on raising its target price to $30, a huge increase from the current target of $22 to $28 a barrel, as it was expected to do at its meeting today, Dec. 10.
Welcome to the vicious cycle
And this is where the vicious cycle kicks in. Every dollar increase in the price of a barrel of imported oil increases the size of the U.S. trade deficit, which puts more pressure on the value of the U.S. dollar, which leads to a weaker dollar, which makes OPEC countries want to raise the dollar-denominated price of a barrel of oil to make up for the dollars fall, and so on.
A vicious cycle, like its self-reinforcing good counterpart the virtuous cycle, doesnt reverse overnight.
Ending this one will require a drop in U.S. energy imports sufficient to decrease the U.S. energy bill, thereby shrinking the U.S. trade deficit and decreasing the supply of dollars sloshing around OPEC.
(A little fiscal discipline on the part of the U.S. government, a revaluation of the Chinese yuan and a pickup in global growth so that overseas consumers could buy more cheap U.S. exports wouldnt hurt, either.)
Energy efficiency helps — over the long haul
The United States pulled off exactly this kind of energy play beginning in the 1970s. Faced with two rounds of energy price shocks, the U.S. economy doubled its energy efficiency between 1975 and 2004. A similar doubling of efficiency is certainly possible.
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