Consequences of an Israeli Missile Attack on Iran!
June 22, 2008
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
Such an attack as detailed in the DEBKAfile Exclusive, which follows the information on the Israeli Jericho Missile Series, would likely entail primary use of the improved Jericho II. I include one paragraph from the DEBKAfile Exclusive at this time as follows:
Begin Single Paragraph Quote from DEBKAfile Exclusive
“They calculate that the moment Iran is attacked, not only will it retaliate, but all hell will break loose on Israeli borders.
Iran’s terrorist stooges, HIzballah will let loose from Lebanon, Hamas from the Gaza Strip and the Syrian air and missile forces go into action from the north. The Israeli Air Force will be vitally needed to protect the population and sufficient aircraft must therefore be kept back for the home front.”
End Single Paragraph Quote from DEBKAfile Exclusive
One of the several reasons that Iran has built the Syria-Hizbullah-Gaza missile net around Israel’s borders is to retaliate against Israel if its nuclear facilities are attacked. The DEBKAfile presents a good picture of the immediate consequence s I
srael will suffer if she attacks Iran.
The old Israel I use to know would attack Iran, but I am of the opinion today’s Israeli Government is bluffing. But if Benjamin Netanyahu was the Prime Minister, I am persuaded Israel would launch some sort of aerial assault on Iranian nuclear facilities
The following information was extracted from: “Commission to Access the Ballistics Missile Threat to the United States,” Appendix III: The Unclassified Working Papers.
ISRAELI JERICHO II
In 1985, a press report appeared that claimed Israel was developing a NEW GENERATION JERICHO WITH A RANGE OF 400 MILES AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED ACCURACY.
Public information about the system began to grow when the Israelis initiated a series of test launches into the Mediterranean. According to one source, there were seven launches between May 1987 and March 1992. Six were fired from the missile test facility at Palmichim, and one was launched from an “operational site” in the Judean Hills. 19 These missiles were tested to A MAXIMIM RANGE OF 800 MILES (ABOUT 1300 KILOMETERS).
In 1991, following the first Iraq’s Al Husayn missile attacks on Israel, the Bush Administration was worried that Israel might respond using ground forces or air strikes. Such actions were viewed as politically dangerous to the coalition then waging war against Iraq. In addition, administration officials thought that the presence of Israeli forces in Iraq would complicate military operations for the coalition. United States reportedly encouraged Israel’s leaders to limit any response to use of ballistic missiles. The request was rejected out of hand by Moshe Arens, then Israel’s Defense Minister. According to Israeli sources, Israel the Jericho II was not operational. As a result, Israel could not rely on the new version of the Jericho, even if it had wanted to launch one. These accounts report that Yitzhak Rabin, the previous Defense Minister, had refused to provide funding to make the missile operational, believing that the money could be better spent on other projects.
According to the Israeli account, a decision was made following the Gulf War to deploy the Jericho II, and by 1994 it
was operational.
It is generally believed that the Jericho II has CONSIDERABLY GREATER ACCURACY than the Jericho I. Many observers appear to believe that the system is essentially a version of the Pershing II missile, and that it is equipped WITH A RADAR TERMINAL GUIDANCE SYSTEM. Some observers appear to believe that the Jericho II missiles are deployed at
the same Zachariah launch site originally developed for the Jericho I.
SHAVIT
A considerable amount of information about Israel’s missile capabilities has been derived from studies of the performance of Israel’s space launch vehicle, the Shavit. It was first launched in September 1988.
It is a three stage system built by Israel Aircraft Industries, including two solid-fuel stages produced by TAAS (once better known as Israeli military industries) and a third stage produced by Rafael.
It is generally believed that the first two stages are identical to the Jericho II.
According to one estimate prepared by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, a ballistic missile based on the Shavit’s first two stages could carry a payload of 900 kilograms to a range of 3,000 miles (about 4,850 kilometers) or a payload of 500 kilograms to almost 4,700 miles (just over 7,600 kilometers).
ISRAELI JERICHO IIB OR JERICHO III
There are suggestions that there is an advanced version of the Jericho II, sometimes called the Jericho IIb, the Jericho Follow-on, or the Jericho III. According to these sources, the missile could have a range of up to 2,800 kilometers with a payload of 1,000 kilograms.
Begin DEBKAfile Exclusive Article
Exclusive: Israel’s air maneuver did not simulate possible Iran strike strategy
June 21, 2008, 11:00 PM (GMT+02:00)
DEBKAfile’s Western military sources do not believe that if Israel does attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, it will resort to the old-fashioned aerial blitz tactic employed in 1981 for bombing Iraq’s Osirak reactor. They therefore challenge the US officials’ conclusion that Israel’s aerial exercise in conjunction with the Greek Air Force over Crete in early June was in fact a rehearsal for Iran.
What was demonstrated with the Israeli Air Force’s capability for deploying a large aerial force of more than 100 warplanes and helicopters for long-distance operations. The distance from Israel to Crete was indeed roughly equal to the distance to Iran’s uranium enrichment plant at Natanz.
Israel has already displayed its ability to strike a nuclear site in the attack on the Syrian-North Korean plutonium reactor in northern Syria on September 6, 2007.
But these military sources argue it would be sheer recklessness for Israel to send so large a part of its air fleet for a repeat of the Israeli attack on Iran without first demolishing Iran’s air defenses.
In the attack on Syria, Israel was able to disarm by electronic means the Russian-made air defense batteries
guarding its reactor.
The same systems protect Iran’s nuclear sites. It must be assumed, however, that Iran and the Russian manufacturers learned a lesson or two from the way Israel silenced the batteries in Syria, although Israel too will have added new gadgetry too.
Those Western military sources also deduced from the Israeli aerial exercise eastern Mediterranean that its war planners must have taken stock of the punishing fallout a war operation against Iran would trigger.
Therefore, rather than consigning a large air fleet to Iranians skies, Israel’s war planners are likely to first use large numbers of missiles to demolish Iran’s nuclear facilities and air defense batteries. Some may be delivered by air from a distance outside the range of Iranian fighter craft (most of which are outdated and in bad shape), others from Dolphin submarines.
The Air Force will go into action at a later stage.
They calculate that the moment Iran is attacked, not only will it retaliate, but all hell will break loose on Israeli borders. Iran’s terrorist stooges, HIzballah will let loose from Lebanon, Hamas from the Gaza Strip and the Syrian air and missile forces go into action from the north. The Israeli Air Force will be vitally needed to protect the population and sufficient aircraft must therefore be kept back for the home front.
Given Tehran’s multiple reprisal capability and the limits to which the Israeli Air Force can be stretched operationally at one time, the IDF may well decide to deal with the Hizballah and Hamas short-range rocket infrastructure as well as the Syrian Air Force before going into action against Iran..
In this sense, DEBKAfile’s military experts note, the decision to strike Iran’s nuclear sites is tightly bound up with preventive action against the menaces closer to home, Hamas at the very least.
MK Tzahi Hanegbi, chairman of the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee said in an interview Saturday, June 21, on Day Three of the Gaza truce, that a major operation to demolish Hamas’ war machine will be unavoidable at some point.
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