Guesstimate of Islamic Attack between 2010 and 2015 Looking Good!
February 7, 2008
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
I have never known the exact time Islamic forces would attack Israel to fulfill prophetic writings of the Old and New Testaments, only that it would definitely eventually come to pass.
I have also been convinced that Islamic forces will not start a major conventional war with Israel until Iran develops an arsenal of missiles with nuclear warheads. Iran must have these, in her way of thinking, to act as a deterrent against Israel launching its nuclear arsenal against Iran.
So one of the prime parameters, in my guesstimate formula as to when the attack was likely to occur, has been when it was likely Iran would have such an arsenal.
The nuclear program of Iran was launched in the 1950s with the help of the United States as part of the Atoms for Peace program. The support, encouragement and participation of the United States and Western European governments in Iran’s nuclear program continued until the 1979 Islamic revolution that toppled the Shah of Iran.
After the great Iranian Revolution in 1979, the Iranian government temporarily disbanded elements of the program, and then revived it with less Western assistance than during the pre-revolution era. Iran’s nuclear program has included several research sites, a uranium mine, a nuclear reactor, and uranium processing facilities that include a uranium enrichment plant.
I began doing my Geological Exposition of the End Times in 1978, and by the 1990’s I guesstimated Iran might develop a nuclear bomb early in the next century, and that the attack was likely to occur before 2008, but by 2006 I could see that was not going to be the case,
and changed my guesstimate to an attack occurring at some point in time between 2008 and 2012.
By 2007, sanctions had enough effect on Iran’s program I realized they could not possibly develop what would be considered a large enough arsenal, prior to 2010, to act as a deterrent against Israel when Iran launched a conventional in union with other Islamic nations – So I again changed my guesstimate for such an attack to occur at some point in time between 2010 and 2015. I doubt if Iran can build what it would consider a large enough arsenal by 2010, but chose that time to be on the safe side. I think it more likely that such an arsenal will not be developed prior to 2012.
Iran’s only nuclear power plant, Bushehr I, is expected to be operational in 2008 and delivering its maximum capacity to the nation’s power grid by March 2009.
Begin Haaretz Article
In about turn, U.S. says Iran may be able to make nukes by 2009
By Amir Oren, Haaretz Correspondent, and Haaretz Service
February 5, 2008
The head of American intelligence said Tuesday that it is unclear whether Tehran has returned to its production of nuclear weapons in the past six months, and warned that Iran “would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon” by the end of next year.
Speaking two months after an American intelligence report cast doubt on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, National Intelligence Director John Michael McConnell made his remarks during an appearance before the Senate Intelligence Committee to present an annual report on threats to the U.S.
A National Intelligence Estimate report released in December said that Iran halted its nuclear weapons development program in the fall of 2003.
“We remain concerned about Iran’s intentions and assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons,” the report said.
“We assess with high confidence that Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons,” it said, adding that the only realistic way to prevent Iran from producing such weapons was “an Iranian political decision to abandon a nuclear weapons objective.”
McConnell expressed skepticism at the ability of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah movement to deliver security for Israel and to overcome Hamas’ efforts to stymie the political process.
He said that despite pressures on Hamas, “the group remains fairly unified, especially its military wing, and in charge in the Gaza Strip where itcontrols all PA facilities. Hamas continues to curtail freedoms and to harass Fatah members.”
McConnell said however, that the U.S. recognizes signs of Fatah’s progress in the West Bank, praising “renewed security and law enforcement cooperation with Israeli forces in taking more effective action against Hamas.”
There was no mention in the report of the Israel Air Force attack on Syria in September 2007, which foreign news sources have speculated was a strike on a nuclear facility built with North Korean assistance.
He said, however, that North Korea, which has sold ballistic missiles to Iran and other Middle Eastern countries, could “proliferate nuclear weapons abroad.”
The intelligence chief also estimated that Iran and Syria will boost their support for Hezbollah, Hamas and other Palestinian terror organizations. He accused Syria and Hezbollah of interfering with the Lebanese presidential elections.
He warned that rising tensions in Lebanon could result in a fresh civil war, and the return to armed “militias” within the country.
“Many former militias in Lebanon are reconstituting, rearming, and retraining their fighters,” he said. “The increased political and sectarian tension also raises the potential for civil war within the country.”
In addition, McConnell raised the threat of Al-Qaida in Lebanon, maintaining it continues to threaten the country’s internal security
Begin Jerusalem Post Article
Russia worried over Iran’s missile test
Associated Press, THE JERUSALEM POST
February 6, 2008
A senior Russian diplomat on Wednesday voiced concern about Iran’s launch of a rocket, saying it has raised suspicions about its nuclear program, Russian news reports said.
Russian news agencies quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov as saying that Monday’s launch of an Iranian research rocket has raised questions about the direction of Iran’s nuclear program.
The statement appeared to indicate that Moscow, which in the past has been skeptical about Iran’s missile capability, increasingly shares Western concerns about Teheran’s course.
“It adds to general suspicions of Iran regarding its potential desire to build nuclear weapons,” Losyukov was quoted as saying. “Long-range missiles are one of the components of such weapons. That causes concern.”
Iran said Monday that the rocket test-fired Monday would be used to launch research satellites into space, but the US State Department said the launch was a “troubling” show of a technology that could be used to fire long-range ballistic missiles.
Begin Jerusalem Post Article
‘Iran testing advanced centrifuge’
JPost.com Staff, THE JERUSALEM POST
February 6, 2008
Iran is testing an advanced centrifuge at its Natanz
nuclear facility, diplomats in Vienna said Wednesday.
The new centrifuge would help Iran boost its speed of uranium enrichment.
Iran had 3,000 P-1 centrifuges – a old type of centrifuge – operating by November, Reuters quoted diplomats tracking Iran’s dossier as saying that it had started mechanical tests, without nuclear material inside, of a more efficient model at Natanz.
“The Iranians have begun to run in the advanced model.
It’s not yet known what stage the testing has reached or exactly how many there are, although it appears to be several dozen,” said a Western diplomat with access to intelligence.
Reuters reported that a senior diplomat familiar with the International Atomic Energy Agency’s file on Iran confirmed that it recently began testing centrifuges based on a “P-2” design, able to enrich uranium 2-3 times as fast as the P-1.
He did not go into details, which he said would come out in a report IAEA Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei would deliver to the Vienna-based agency’s Board of Governors and the UN Security Council later this month.
It was unclear how successful Iran’s tests had been.
Begin DEBKAfile Report
DEBKAfile Reports: In a coordinated U-turn, US and Russia both treat Iran’s space launch as attesting to a nuclear weapons program
February 6, 2008, 3:55 PM (GMT+02:00)
Wednesday, Feb. 6, Moscow followed Washington in voicing concern that the launch of Iran’s Safir-1 space rocket Monday, Feb. 4, attested to the existence of a nuclear weapons program.
This diametrically contradicts the US National Intelligence Estimate of last December, which concluded Iran had shelved its covert military nuclear program in 2003.
Moscow too has evidently abandoned its persistent denial of evidence that Tehran is developing a nuclear bomb.
The two comments from the White House and the Kremlin also point to Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin having settled their dispute over harsh sanctions against Iran.
The two leaders began pulling their acts on Iran together in December 2007, as DEBKAfile first revealed, when Bush suddenly withdrew his objections to Russian fuel shipments for Iran’s Bushehr reactor. Tuesday, Feb. 5, in answer to a question, the White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said Iran’s “space” missile was cause for worry. Such technology, she said, is the same as that needed to deliver a nuclear bomb.
Wednesday, Feb. 6, Russian deputy foreign minister Alexander Losyukov followed suit. He commented that Monday’s test launch of Iran’s “Safir-1 (Explorer-1) raises suspicions over Tehran’s claims of peaceful nuclear intentions and suggested its possible desire to create a nuclear weapon.
It was “of course a cause for concern.” Long-range missiles are components of a nuclear weapons system, the Russian official said – the first time any senior Russian official had admitted to suspecting Iran of underhand nuclear weapons activity.
DEBKAfile’s Washington and Moscow sources report: The statements from the two capitals indicate that Bush and Putin continue to cooperate on Iran and have decided to leave the controversial NIE behind them. The question is: Where does their collaboration go from here? Or, specifically, how does the White House propose to reward the Kremlin for adopting its hard line on Iran
?
The place to watch may be Poland and the Czech Republic, where the US president might be flexible in his push for missile interceptor bases in consideration of Moscow’ s adamant re
sistance.
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