Main Reason for no Major Middle East War this Year!
July 26, 2007
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
As long as significant numbers of American troops are in Iraq between Syria and Iran, accompanied by an armada of naval power capable of launching missile, gun, and air power on Islamic forces, I do not believe a major Middle East War will break out between the
Islamic nations and Israel.
This has been my primary reason for saying there will not be a major war this year, and why I chose the period 2008 to the end of 2012 as the most likely time for such a war. Once our troops are pulled out of Iraq, the attack will be launched, with the most favorable time being in the latter half of the aforementioned period from 2010 to the end of 2012.
Begin UK Guardian Unlimited
US Plan sees role in Iraq until 2009
Haroon Siddique
Tuesday July 24, 2007
UK Guardian Unlimited
The US government anticipates a significant role for its forces in Iraq until 2009, despite growing congressional pressure to set an early withdrawal date, it was reported today.
Details of the plans to bring “sustainable security” to the country emerged as police said a suicide bomb killed 26 people and wounded 70 in a crowded market south of B aghd
ad.
The attack, which took place close to a maternity hospital in the Shia town of Hilla, about 60 miles from the Iraqi capital, destroyed 14 shops and set more than a dozen cars ablaze.
Police also reported the discovery of 24 bodies, all with bullet wounds and showing signs of torture, around the Iraqi capital over the past 24 hours
Against the background of the latest violence, the US ambassador, Ryan Crocker, began a second round of talks on Iraq with his Iranian counterpart.
Meanwhile, details of a classified campaign plan drawn up by Mr Crocker and General David Petraeus, the top US commander in Iraq, emerged in the New York Times.
The pl an, covering
a two-year period, does not explicitly address troop levels or withdrawal schedules. It anticipates a decline in American forces as the “surge” in troops runs its course later this year or in early 2008.
None the less, it assumes continued American involvement to train soldiers, act as partners with Iraqi forces and fight terrorist groups in Iraq, American officials told the Times.
The paper reported that the plan identifies two phases, the first involving a near-term goal of “localised security” in Baghdad and other areas, with a target date of no later than June 2008. Former insurgents would be accommodated into the political process in order to achieve this.
One military official told the newspaper: “You are out there trying to draw them into a negotiated power-sharing agreement where they decide to quit fighting you.
They don’t decide that their conflict is over.
The reasons for conflict remain, but they quit trying to address it through violence.”
The intermediate goal would be to use the local arrangements to achieve nationwide security no later than June 2009.
The New York Times quoted the summary of the joint campaign plan as saying: “The coalition, in partnership with the government of Iraq, employs integrated political, security, economic and diplomatic means, to help the people of Iraq achieve sustainable security by the summer of 2009.”
Begin DEBKAfile Exclusive
DEBKAfile Exclusive: USS Enterprise Strike Group and French Charles De Gaulle carrier
hold their first joint maneuver in Mediterranean
July 26, 2007, 10:00 AM (GMT+02:00)
The USS nuclear carrier USS Enterprise (CVN 65), en route for the Persian Gulf, entered the Mediterranean Sea Monday July 23 for joint maneuvers with the French Charles De Gaulle carrier. Rafale M fighters took off from its deck, touched down briefly on Enterprise runways and returned to the parent ship.
This is the first time ever that French fighter-bombers have landed on an American carrier and used its facilities.
DEBKAfile’s Middle East and Washington sources say that the closely integrated maneuver is part of the growing cooperation between the Bush admin
istration and the new Nicolas Sarkozy presidency on burning Middle East issues.
DEBKAfile’s sources have previously pointed to a dramatic opening-up of interchanges between Paris, Tehran and Hizballah. They now affirm that this new track was launched with tacit approval from Washington.
Saturday, July 28, on the heels of the joint naval-aerial exercise, French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner is due in Beirut for a visit prepared by France’s former ambassador in Damascus, Jean-Claude Cousseran.
Early next week, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates arrive in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Rice will also visit Jerusalem and Ramallah.
The contours are thus emerging of a division of labor whereby the United States concentrates on Iraq, the Persian Gulf and the Israel-Palestinian dispute, leaving France to deal directly with Iran, Syria and Lebanon.
Sarkozy and his emissaries move into position as the potential go-between for Washington and Tehran, while Britain’s Tony Blair acts for the Quartet to mold Palestinian institutions of government.
The gambit on which Washington and Paris have embarked together takes into account Iran’s elevated standing as a topnotch Middle East power. This partnership and the new horizon opening up are explored in detail in the next DEBKA-Net-Weekly out on Friday.
The evolving Washington-Paris track has a negative potential for Israel, which the Olmert government has not yet appreciated.
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