Who knows what the Nose Knows – Speak Beak! Welcome to the Land of Smoke and Mirrors – Olmert
Said, Assad Said, and IDF
Said!
July 11, 2007
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
Three back-to-back events in reactions between Syria and Israel on July 9, 10, and 11 are interesting to read about.
I received the first article on Tuesday, and the sec
ond at 3 AM on Wednesday morning. I had already prepared Article 1 for a blog, so when I received the second article Wednesday morning, I simply titled it “The Beak Speaks.” This sort of offer and refusal game has been going on between Syria since 2000 in a cat and mouse reversing role – Ever time Assad offers to negotiate peace with the Israeli Prime Minister he gets a “NO,” and when the offer is made by Israel, then Syria refuses.
Article I is Olmert’s offer of peace talks to Assad, and article 2 is the answer Olmert received back from Assad. Article 3 is what Olmert and the IDF said after he received Assad’s answer.
I say there will NOT be a war this summer between Syria and Israel, but there must eventually be one. But I would love to see a war start this summer between Syria, Iran, and Israel, with the great U.S. armada of sea fire power surrounding the Middle East. However, I think it will have to wait until Syria and Iran see themselves in a better position to start it.
Begin Jerusalem Post Article 1 – July 9
Olmert ready to hold talks with Assad
JPost.com Staff, THE JERUSALEM POST
July 9, 2007
‘Come to Jerusalem to talk’
was the message of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to Syrian President Bashar Assad, in an historic interview to Saudi satellite station Al Arabiya, aired by Channel 10 Monday evening.
In his first appearance on a major Arabic news station in over six years, Olmert, speaking in an office adorned with the blue and white Israeli flag, told his Hebrew-speaking interviewer: “Bashar Assad, you know … You know I am ready to hold direct negotiations with you and you also know that it’s you who insists on speaking to the Americans.
The American president says: ‘I don’t want to stand between Bashar Assad and Ehud Olmert. If you want to talk, sit down and talk.”
Assad has “heard many things from me already,” Olmert added.
When asked where he would hold such talks with Assad, Olmert said “any place he [Assad] would agree to meet,” hinting that Assad would even be welcome in Jerusalem.
Channel 10 analyst Zvi Yehezkeli remarked that Al Arabiya’s broadcasts are transmitted following approval from the Saudi government. He added the network was planning to follow up on Olmert’s interview with interviews with Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas Damascus-based leader Khaled Mashaal and eventually, Assad himself.
Several weeks ago, during Olmert’s visit to the US, American President George W.
Bush, in Olmert’s presence, was asked if he would mediate between Israel and Syria in an attempt to warm the truce the two countries observe since 1973 into a full-blooded peace treaty. Bush’s response was that Olmert “is plenty capable” of achieving such a goal without US help. The Syria Accountability Act, isolating Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism, was passed during Bush’s tenure. Despite visits to Damascus by house speaker Nancy Pelosi and other congressmen earlier this year, Bush keeps contacts with Syria cool. However, the US still keeps an embassy in Damascus.
The Beak Speaks back to the Nose! Now You Know what the Nose Knows!
July 10, 2007
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
Begin Jerusalem Post Article 2 – July 10
Syria rejects offer to hold peace talks
JPost.com Staff, and AP, THE JERUSALEM POST
July 10, 2007
Damascus has rejected Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s offer to hold peace talks with President Bashar Assad, Army Radio reported on Tuesday morning.
Syrian parliament member Muhammad Habash said late Monday night that Damascus did not believe Olmert’s overtures were serious.
In an historic interview with Saudi satellite station Al Arabiya, aired by Channel 10 Monday evening, Olmert invited Assad to Jerusalem to talk.
In his first appearance on a major Arabic news station in over six years, Olmert, speaking in an office adorned with the blue and white Israeli flag, told his Hebrew-speaking interviewer: “Bashar Assad, you know … I am ready to hold direct negotiations with you, and you also know that it’s you who insists on speaking to the Americans. The American president says: ‘I don’t want to stand between Bashar Assad and Ehud Olmert. If you want to talk, sit down and talk.”
Assad has “heard many things from me already,” Olmert added.
When asked where he would hold such talks with Assad, Olmert said “any place he [Assad] would agree to meet,” hinting that Assad would even be welcome in Jerusalem.
Public Security Minister Avi Dichter told Army Radio that Olmert indeed wants a resumption of negotiations with Syria and his offer was “genuine and real.” But Dichter was not optimistic that Assad would agree to renew the talks.
“Bashar Assad apparently has other plans than making peace with Israel,” Dichter said.
“And now we will listen and wait.”
Begin Article 3 – July 11
IDF wary of possible war with Syria
Yaakov Katz, THE JERUSALEM POST
July 11, 2007
Predicting that war with Syria could erupt if Prime Minister Ehud Olmert does not begin peace negotiations with Damascus, the latest IDF assessment also states that such a conflict would be “at least 10 times worse” than last summer’s conflict with Hizbullah.
Military Intelligence is also identifying and pinpointing targets for the IDF in the event that a strike is launched against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
MI recently established a new division to translate intelligence into concrete targets and information that can be used by units in the field.
The new division is headed by Brig.-Gen. Nitzan Alon, a former commander of the General Staff’s Reconnaissance Unit (Sayeret Matkal.) The Israel Air Force has its own department that is responsible for processing intelligence and identifying targets.
According to IDF assessments, Syria is not interested in an armed confrontation, but has stepped up its preparations for war since last year’s Israel-Hizbullah conflict.
Due to the lack of communication between the two countries, the IDF assessment is that a war could erupt sometime in the coming year if a diplomatic resolution is not reached first.
If war breaks out, the IDF believes Syria would fire thousands of long- and short-range missiles at Israeli cities.
The assumption is that a war with Syria would erupt due to a “miscalculation” along the border, in the form of a terrorist attack that escalates into a larger conflict.
Syria has come to believe that the United States will attack Iran this summer, and that as a result, Israel will once more go to war with Hizbullah. If that happens, Syria believes Israel will not confine its operations to Lebanon, but will also strike Syrian targets.
Syria has transferred several hundred medium-range missiles to Hizbullah, The Jerusalem Post has learned, which has completely replenished its weapon supplies, exhausted during last summer’s war. The missiles include 220-mm. and 302-mm.
Katyusha rockets that have ranges of up to 60 kilometers.
The IDF suspects that Hizbullah may have received more advanced Iranian and Syrian missiles, with the assumption being that any weapon small enough to fit into a standard 12-meter shipping container has been sent to the guerrilla group by the two countries.
Turning to Iran, the assumption is that Teheran will continue to advance with its nuclear program, in defiance of United Nations-imposed sanctions and resolutions.
According to the most pessimistic estimates in the defense establishment, Iran will obtain a nuclear bomb by mid-2009, although the chances of this happening are seen as slim and it is more likely that the Islamic Republic will only succeed in manufacturing a nuclear device in 2010 or 2011.
The IDF believes that within the next six months, Iran will cross the technological threshold, obtaining independent research and development capabilities and mastering the technology needed to enrich uranium.
According to the IDF assessment, a military strike could cause enough damage to dramatically set back Iran’s nuclear program.
The Iranian regime is believed to be strong and Israel does not believe that it can currently be toppled.
Concerning Hizbullah, Israel says the IDF killed some 600 gunmen during the war last summer, a tenth of the group’s armed men. The guerrilla group is having trouble recruiting new guerrillas into its ranks, according to the IDF.
The growing assumption in the IDF is that Hizbullah is not currently interested in another round of fighting with Israel and that it is rehabilitating its damaged infrastructure. The assumption is that Hizbullah will recover by mid-2008 and might renew attacks against Israel.
Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah remains a target for the IDF, although
the assumption within the defense establishment is that the guerrilla group would respond harshly if he were killed.
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Now closing today’s BLOG from the Middle East land of smoke and mirrors, say one thing but mean another, he said, she said, they said, but none believed what they said – An analyst’s nightmare!
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