Herald of Local or Widespread Middle East War? Answer – Local!
Removal of 1967 Forty Year Checkpoint is a Sign of a local Hizbullah-Lebanon War occurring before a greater Middle East War occurring later on!
July 10, 2007
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
I have listed in several previous blogs my reasons for believing Syria and Iran have no desire for a widespread Middle East war this year.
I selected a window of opportunity for such a conflict as being at the very earliest 2008, with the odds having increased dramatically by the end of 2012. I do expect a local war in Lebanon between the legitimate elected government and Hizbullah to occur before the start of the final war of the age of the Gentiles in the Middle East. This local war is likely to break out before this year ends or before 2009 begins. I suspect it will end either in a coup by Hizbullah taking over the present government of Lebanon, or by a divided Lebanon into two states.
After Israel’s lack of success in last year’s war against Hizbullah they, along with Syria and Iran, are gambling that Israel will stay out of the war on their southern side of the Lebanon border. I believe it is a good gamble on their part. Syria’s removal of its military checkpoints in the Golan, described in the article which immediately follows, as well as other actions it has recently been taking, are being taken defensively in the event Israel does get involved in the local Lebanese war, and decides to attack Syria.
I do agree with the assessment of Article 2 regarding the unlikelihood of Iran developing nuclear capabilities before 2009, and I doubt if it can develop an arsenal of mounted nuclear warheads on Shihab missiles before 2011. So, as we progress into the 2008 through 2012 window, the likelihood of an all out Middle East war increases along a logarithmic scale, with each passing year showing a greater likelihood, until my guesstimate of it occurring before 2013 is likely to become a reality.
In the wild and wooly Middle East, the actual time can never be more than a guess.
Begin Jerusalem Post Article 1
Report: Syria removing military checkpoints in Golan
JPost.com Staff, THE JERUSALEM POST
July 7, 2007
The London based Al-Hayat reported Saturday that Israel was “concerned” that Syria’s decision to remove military checkpoints on the road to Kuneitra on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights could be a preparation for war.
According to the report, the checkpoints in question had been in place for 40 years, ever since the Six Day War.
Al-Hayat also claimed that that foreign journalists were barred from covering IDF maneuvers conducted on the Golan Heights.
The newspaper also reported that Israel had blocked access to areas on the Golan Heights from which villages and towns were visible. The report also listed the equipment the IDF had left in place, which included bulldozers and 70 tank outposts.
The report came two days after Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni addressed Syrian concerns that Israel planned to attack the country.
Livni said that the IDF was conducting exercises and nothing more.
Speaking at a meeting with her Danish counterpart, Per Stig Moller, Livni said that Israel wanted to live in peace with its neighbors.
“Israel, unfortunately, has to be constantly prepared.
The IDF’s job is to protect Israeli citizens, and for this it must train, and for this exercises were created.
It would be a shame… to interpret this otherwise,” Livni said.
Also on Saturday, Dr. Ibrahim Suleiman – a Syrian-American who appeared before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee several months ago reiterated what he told Channel 10 news at the time, saying [Prime Minister] Ehud Olmert is too weak politically to achieve peace with Syria.
In an interview to the London-based Al-Quds al-Arabiye, Suleiman said that officials in Israel who opposed peace with Syria had leaked reports of his meetings with former Foreign Ministry director-general Alon Liel in order to “torpedo” any possible talks.
“If [Syrian President] Bashar Assad repeats that he’s interested in peace with Israel, he means it,” Suleiman said. He added that peace between Israel and Syria was the key to stabilizing
the Middle East, including Iraq and Lebanon, and would renew contact between Israel and
the Palestinians.
Following Suleiman’s visit, sponsored by Meretz MK Zehava Gal-On and much publicized in the Israeli media, Syrian sources were quick to dismiss Suleiman as a “non-entity,” saying that he represented “no one but himself” and that he was “not speaking for the Syrian people.”
The Syrian regime contradicted both Suleiman’s statements and itself by alternating statements of a will to negotiate peace and threats to take back the Golan by Mukawama – resistance in Arabic – a phrase that can mean anything from a limited terror campaign to all-out war. Threats of Mukawama by the Syrian foreign minitstry and other top Syrian officials sometimes arrived within days from declarations that Syria seeks nothing but peace.
The constant factor in Syrian foreign policy remains its arming of Hizbullah, a violation of UN resolution 1731 from August 2006, which prohibits any country from rearming the terrorist Shi’ite Organization
Farid Ghadri, president of the Reform Part of Syria, based in Washington DC, visited Israel in June and also appeared the FADC. In his address there, Ghadri urged Israel to avoid making peace with a totalitarian Syrian regime, as this would constitute “Betrayal of the Syrian people.”
Last week, the Golani Infantry Brigade held its training-concluding drill in the Golan Heights. The drill summarized 70 days of training which focused on practicing for battle against a Syrian-Lebanese c
onstellation.
The drill was widely covered in the Syrian media, even prompting a Syrian radio analyst to say that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was lying in his statements that Israel seeks peaceful relations with Syria. The analyst said it was clear the Golani drill constituted preparation for an Israeli attack.
Begin Jerusalem Post Article 2
IDF: Syria not looking to start a war with Israel
JPost.com Staff, THE JERUSALEM POST
July 10, 2007
“Syria was not interested starting a military conflict with Israel this summer, but has taken many steps that has greatly improved its readiness for such a scenario,” read the IDF’s intelligence assessment, quoted by Army Radio Tuesday.
If a war would break out between Israel and Syria, it would be characterized by a relentless barrage of rockets and missiles fired to the Israeli home front, ten times as powerful as the barrage Israel endured during the Second Lebanon War against Hizbullah in the summer of 2006, said the assessment.
IDF intelligence also reported that Iran could achieve nuclear capability during the second half of 2009.
Presently, said the IDF, the Islamic Republic was making great efforts to camouflage its nuclear facilities and transfer them to underground bunkers, as part of a preparation for a military attack against them.
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