Fear of a Two Front War this Summer!
June 5, 2007
http://www.tribulationperiod.com/
I have included my comments on this Haaretz article at the end of the Blog.
Begin Haaretz Article
IDF: No Gaza Operation due to fear of war with Syria
June 1, 2007
By Amos Harel and Avi Isaacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents
The main reason the Israel Defense Forces is not currently recommending a major ground operation in the Gaza Strip is fear that war might break out with Syria this summer, IDF sources say.
This argument is rarely mentioned publicly, in part because intelligence analysts are still uncertain about whether Syrian President Bashar Assad intends to start a war or is merely trying to pressure Israel to resume peace talks. But Syria has clearly been preparing for the possibility of war, both through troop training and major arms deals.
As a result, the IDF believes it must also be ready for this possibility, and excessive activity on the southern front would undermine its capabilities in the north.
From the army’s perspective, Syria is the biggest threat; the Palestinian front is secondary.
The army is also concerned that miscalculations of the enemy’s intentions, on either side of the border, could lead to war between Syria and Israel even if neither side wants it. Precisely this scenario was the subject of a major military exercise last month.
End Haaretz Article
Begin Comments on Haaretz Article
The final war of this age will be the best planned the Islamic nations have ever carried out against Israel, and it will be the first they will win initially, only to lose the final battle of Armageddon some three and one-half years later.
The areas surrounding two autonomous Palestinian cities on the bluffs east of the coastal cities
of Tel Aviv, Netanya, and Haifa, will play a major role in the future attack of a confederation of Arab nations against Israel. Approximately 70% of Israel’s Jewish population lives in the coastal zone to the west of these bluffs, with most of that being concentrated in Haifa, Tel Aviv, and Netanya.
About 80% of Israel’s industrial productivity is also in this area, as well as many important military installations. These high elevations, surrounding the two Palestinian controlled cities of Tul Karm and Kalkilya
(Qalqilya), str atigic
ally dominate the coastal zones from a military standpoint, sitting on the Sharon bluff of the western Samarian and Judean Mountains.
The Palestinians have been sneaking in thousands of katyusha rockets through tunnels under the Egyptian border.
The rockets then pass through the Palestinian controlled Gaza Strip, and eventually end up in the areas around Tul Karm and Kalkilya. I expect the IDF to eventually raid these areas, but with only limited success.
The Palestinians have also been smuggling some katyushas across the Jordan River at night. They move them westward through the dendritic openings of the eastern Judean and Samarian Mountains. They eventually pass through the highlands around Jenin, Nablus, and south of Afula. Some are hidden in the caves around Jenin for launching against Israel forces that would come north through the Jordan Valley to repulse the Syrian attack from the
north.
But the main weaponry smuggled into these areas consists of antitank and antiaircraft shoulder launchers, which have been concealed in these zones in countless numbers from Afula to Jenin to Nablus to Ramalla. Thousands of kayusha rockets are well hidden in the karst topography east of Tul Karm and Kalkilya. The numerous limestone caves in this area often have narrow openings that cannot be identified from the air, and they also can be cleverly concealed from surface detection. The Palestinians can rapidly recover these rockets in the event of an all out war. They can be quickly installed on the rear of a long based truck, where their mobility will increase the difficulty of detection by Israel’s aircraft. Katyusha rockets do not have a long range potential, but are relatively accurate at short range.. The air distances of Tul Karm and Kalkilya from Haifa, Netanya, and Tel Aviv varies from as little as 20 miles, to as much as 60 miles, which is within the range of relative accuracy for the katyusha rockets.
When the future surprise attack is carried out against Israel from Syria and Lebanon, thousands of these rockets will shower down on the coastal population from Tel Aviv to Haifa.
This quick surprise attack by a confederation of Islamic nations will be greatly aided by the well coordinated internal attack of the Palestinians, and will make it possible for Israel to be driven into the Negev south of Beersheva. I believe it is likely that this attack will occur only after Israel has been lulled into a false sense of security.
I am persuaded it is likely to occur at some point in time after 2008 begins, and before 2012 ends.
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