Both Sides circling their Wagons to keep out Nuclear Arrowheads!
May 23, 2007
http://www.tribulationperiod/
The Syrians and Iranians are circling their military installations with the latest Russian Air Defense Systems as witnessed by Article 1, while the U.S. is circling its own European military installations, and Israel’s military and civilian centers on a joint venture in Article 2.
It is somewhat ironic that the two dates involving delivery or final installation of the systems in the two articles are late 2008 and by 2013, which is my guesstimate of the time span during which I believe the great Middle East War is likely to suddenly begin.
Article 1 Extracted from Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Asharg Alawsat
Iran to Buy Russian Arms System Via Syria – Jane’s
Monday 21 May 2007
LONDON, (Reuters)
Syria has agreed to supply Iran with at least 10 out of 50 air defence systems that Damascus is in the process of buying from Russia, Jane’s Defence Weekly reported in this week’s edition.
Jane’s quoted a source close to the deal as saying that while most of the Pantsyr-S1E systems were earmarked for Syrian Air Defence Command, “the end user for 10 of the systems is Tehran”.
It said Iran would take delivery of them in late 2008. To reward Syria for its middleman role, Tehran would part-finance Syria’s Pantsyrs as well as paying for its own.
Iran is locked in confrontation with the United States over its developing nuclear programme and delivered its latest warning to Washington last week that it would retaliate severely if attacked.
Iran denies U.S. accusations that it is trying to build atomic weapons under cover of a civilian nuclear programme.
Washington emphasises it wants to resolve the standoff through diplomacy but has not ruled out military action to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Jane’s said Syria struck a $730 million deal with Russia earlier this year for some 50 Pantsyr-S1E self-propelled short-range gun and missile air defence systems.
Its source said Moscow had not been officially notified of the reported Syrian arrangement with Tehran, which flowed from a November 2005 strategic accord between the two countries on military and technological cooperation.
Russia, as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council with veto power, is a key player in international diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
A Security Council resolution in March urged all states to exercise “vigilance and restraint” in the supply, sale or transfer of weaponry to Iran, including missile systems.
Article 2 Excerpt from DEBKAfile Report
US-Israeli Anti-Missile Programs to Be Fully Integrated by 2013
May 22, 2007, 1:06 PM (GMT+02:00)
The US House of Representatives last week allocated another $25 for the Arrow’s joint production and integration; and $45 m for the US-Israeli short-range David’s Sling, which is under development for countering high trajectory projectiles, such as Hizballah’s Katyusha rockets.
US and Israeli anti-missile systems are scheduled to be fully integrated by the year 2013. A further American investment of $1 bn in the Israeli programs will top up the $2.8 bn already spent.
Israel’s defense minister Amir Peretz said on May 19 that he hopes David’s Slling will be ready in two years. This leaves Israel unprotected against the Palestinian Qassam, Hizballah’ s Katyu
sha or mortar attack before 2010.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that had the development of David’s Sling not been interrupted three and a half years ago for lack of funds, the system might have been used against Hizballah’s Katyusha rocket blitz of Galilee last year and the Hamas Qassams now raining down on the Western Negev.
Israel will, however, be armed with the most superior shield available for fending off Iranian and Syrian ballistic missile threats: the Arrow for intercepting incoming missiles at high altitudes; the THAAD to screen broad areas such as cities, air fields, battle arenas or military installations; and the Patriots to snag the missiles which dodge the first two levels.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the integrated counter-missile units were given their first field test in the joint US-Israeli Juniper Cobra exercise held in the Negev in March, 2007. At Washington’s request, a news blackout was imposed on the week-long maneuver, which ended March 20.
Its success was reflected in last week’s congressional approval of appropriations for continuing the integrated programs.
At the same time, Israel must consider the pros and cons for its strategic position of filling a front-line role in the American missile shield planned for the east European countries of Poland and the Czech Republic. Israel is seen to solidly side with America against Moscow with applications for the inter-power contest over influence and oil and gas markets in the Middle East and Central Asia. This contest is beginning to be called “Cold War Two.”
Russian president Vladimir Putin has made his campaign against the deployment of US interceptor missiles in East Europe the main theme of his foreign policy and confronted Washington with an ultimatum: if the US goes through with the deployment of missiles in Poland and radar stations in the Czech Republic, Moscow will develop missiles capable of busting them.
In a fresh arms race between America and Russia focusing on anti-missile interceptors, Israel as an integral component of the US system could find itself threatened by Moscow’s sales to Iran and Syria of hardware designed to knock out its own anti-missile defenses.
What Israel’s military planners fear most is the Russian Iskander E, which has a range of 200 km, pinpoint precision, and the ability to evade trackers. Its acquisition enables Syria to launch surprise attacks on Israel’s anti-missile positions and air force bases.
On March 23, DEBKA-Net-Weekly 294 revealed:
1. The US has designated the Israeli-made Arrow anti-missile missile system and its Green Pine radar the first line in its defensive shield against Iranian ballistic missiles. Any incoming missile would have to first outmaneuver the Israeli system located in the Negev before reaching the Europe-based links – 10 interceptors, which Washington plans for Poland and a radar station projected for the Czech Republic – and possibly Georgia too.
The American and Israeli anti-missile deployments are to be integrated to create an inter-operational multilayered air defense system by 2013.
To make this happen, Washington will sink another $1 billion in the Israeli technology on top of the $2.8 billion already invested.
2. The US-Israeli missile defense network is designed not only to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles of 1,300-1,500 km range fired at Europe, but also the short-range Iskander-E short-range ballistic missiles.
This decision was taken after it was discovered that the Iskander-E is designed to outfight key Western ballistic missile defenses, particularly the Patriot Advanced Capability PAC-2/3 low-to-high altitude air-defense system.
The Iskander-E is the export version of the Kolomna-designed 9M72 short-range ballistic missile in current service with the Russian army. Its range is shorter – 280 km compared with the 9M72’s 400 km.
The weapon is essentially an improved version of the old Soviet Scud plus the latest advances in propulsion, guidance and computerized systems.
The Iskander-E’’s pinpoint accuracy and short preparation time are seen by the US and Israel as posing a greater threat than its range or payload. For the first time, Syria has a missile with a solid propellant capable of mounting an effective surprise attack on the Air Force bases and military command centers of northern and central Israel, though not the south – a far cry from the Scud with its liquid propellant and lengthy and clumsy launch preparations.
With a CEP (Circular Error Probable: a measure of missile accuracy) of a few meters, individual aircraft shelters and high value military installations could be effectively targeted.
The Iskander might well encourage Damascus to believe that a surprise attack against US bases in Iraq, Israel and Turkey could be successful.
3. The United States and Israel therefore have more in mind than a defense system against an Iranian ballistic threat to Europe. They do not rule out Moscow’s potential for one day creating the same kind of integrated missile and missile defense system with Iran and or Syria, as the one the US has formed with Israel.
During his Middle East tour in February Russian president Vladimir Putin made no secret of his challenge to American superpower status in the Arab world by offers of advanced weapons sales, nuclear technology and diplomatic espousal.
To re-establish Russian positions in the Middle East, Putin is wooing both radical and conservative governments, Sunni and Shiite alike. The Russian president invited all and sundry to follow Syria’ s example and
shop for Russian missiles.
The Juniper Cobra exercise of March 2007, the fourth of the two-yearly series, was meant as a discreet signal to Moscow, as well as
to its past and future customers – especially Syria – that even before their deployment, the Russian-made missiles on sale have already been outmaneuvered by the US defense systems in position to shoot them down.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Moscow sources report that the Kremlin and top Russian brass greeted the signal with fury. They perceive the Negev maneuver as an American move to check Russia’s drive for restored Middle East status and spoil its weapons export trade.
They have responded with a threat to equip Russia’s European embassies with systems capable of following US and NATO movements in the continent. It was spelled out Monday, March 19, by Col. Gen. Vladimir Popovkin, commander of Russia’s Space Forces.
He said space monitoring systems in Russian embassy compounds in several countries would track the launches of ballistic missiles abroad. In an interview to the Pace Technology News magazine, Popovkin said quantum-optical equipment posted at the embassies would pick up launches undetectable from Russian territory and adjust the trajectories of missile “killer vehicles” to a potential threat.
On Feb. 27, John Rood, US assistant secretary for international security and non-proliferation, spoke in general about American-Israeli cooperation in defense against missiles in an address to the 8th Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) Missile Defense Conference.
He commented: “The rationale for such deployments as detailed in US Defense Department analysis has concluded that Poland and the Czech Republic are the good locations to provide protection for much of Europe and the United States from the evolving Middle East ballistic missile threat. Assuming our negotiations are successful, we hope to begin major construction in these countries in 2008 and to begin missile defense operations by 2012. These missile defense assets would be integrated with existing radars in Fylingdales, UK and Thule, Greenland, as well as the US ground-based mid-course defense system consisting of, for example, existing missile defense interceptors located in California and Alaska.
Fylingdales in Yorkshire is a long-range radar station, which forms part of the Ballistic Missile Early Warning System (BMEWS) and Space Surveillance Network (SSN). Fylingdales was the third and last of the BMEWS ”golfball” stations to be built during the Cold War. The first two are at Thule, Greenland and Clear, Alaska.
Officials in Jerusalem noted that John Rood, while listing America’s missile monitoring assets everywhere else, carefully omitted mention of the Israel-made Arrow’s Green Pine radar system and its integration in the US chain of defenses for Europe as the first line of defense against Iran’s ballistic missiles.
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